Let the Gloating Begin

November 8, 2004
     These are heady days for the Bush gang. Chief political strategist Karl Rove is looking to consolidate Republican power for the long haul (at least until the "rapture"). The President has stated that he intends "to spend the political capital [he has] earned" -- and that presumably means more tax cuts, a constitutional amendment defining marriage, "growing" the economy, and partially privatizing social security. He will be "resolute" in battling the "War on Terror," meaning we'll pay any price to maintain our sick dependency relationship with Saudi Arabia. His agenda would be funny if it wasn't pathetic in the face of a tidal wave of trouble heading America's way.

     Bush & Co. have no idea what's coming, but then neither do the Democrats, or the American public for that matter. The global oil peak is ushering in a permanent production decline that will put an end to the growth of industrial economies all around the world. In the US, that means an end to an economy based on continuous suburban expansion, production house-building, and the sales of stuff to fill up those houses. Without these activites, the public will soon discover that there is no American economy.

     For individuals, this is now the time to start making other plans to live differently. It's the time to get out of the suburbs while you can, find a place to live in an area that can support local agriculture, and take up a practical line of work. By "suburbs" I also mean many big cities, especially ones in the Sunbelt which are virtually made out of suburbs: Phoenix, Orlando, Atlanta, Dallas, Las Vegas, et cetera. These places are going to become very disorderly, and some of them have no chance of local food self-sufficiency. Since local food production will be at the center of the US economy in the near future, the many activities associated with that would be a good place to seek vocational opportunities.

      Getting free of dependence on any large scale enterprise is as important as getting out of the suburbs. In the post-cheap-oil era, large enterprises will stagger, wither, and die, whether they are giant corporations, oversized schools, or big governments. If you are employed by a big company, now is the time to get out. Of course, most Americans will continue to do exactly what they have been doing, because they are clueless about what's coming down, and their leaders have failed to prepare them. But that only puts the non-clueless at a comparative advantage.

      The global oil peak, and the permanent energy crisis it implies, will also usher in an era of tremendous turbulence. If you think America's foreign affairs are a mess now, just wait. China will soon challange America's ability to act in Asia. They will do it even while they continue to stock all the WalMarts with cheap consumer products. Remember, China is a lot closer to Central Asia and the Middle East than we are. They can actually walk into these places if they want to. And they have the largest army in the world. Do you think America wants to fight a land war in Asia against China?

      Before long, our pretenses about controlling distant parts of the world will dissolve in an acid bath of reality, and America will retreat back into our own Hemisphere, with very little oil or natural gas left to run Disney World, the Bellagio Hotel, or the interstate highway system. Where will WalMart get its merchandise then? Denmark? Uruguay?

     I don't even want to think about what happens to the dollar in the meantime.

     So, take all the Republican gloating of-the-moment with a grain of salt. These assholes are about to be buried in disillusionment. For those of us in the opposing camp, we may have to think about forming a more coherent and potent progressive opposition, one that can actually perceive the trendlines, inform the public realistically -- actually lead -- and act intelligently. It may have to happen outside the boundaries of the Democratic Party establishment. Sorry, Hillary.

Comments

[Jarrett]

Jim

Can't argue with that. But what are the chances that the great cities of North America will be allowed to prosper in such a future? We who live at high density will always be logical targets for terrorist attack, or even just plain old war. And as the suburban refugees flow in looking for a new way of life, many will bring enough money to buy us.

Maybe we're each best off on 20 acres in southern Oregon with an old pickup, a few guns, and some really mean dogs. On the bright side, we might see the resurgence of the commune.

And do you share the view that no matter how wise Canada's government is, it's so interedependent with the US economy that it can't help but go down with us?

Peace, Jarrett (http://urbanist.typepad.com)

[aj]

Regardless of its interdependence with NAFTA, Canada has its own issues. Some are the same as the US: urban sprawl, public infrastructure dis- or mis-investment. The richest provinces, Alberta and Ontario, are based on oil-intensive industries: extraction in the former, manufacturing and other Big Business in the latter.

To 'build lifeboats' as Richard Heinberg puts it in Powerdown still requires an economy, albeit a very different one than what we're used to, but also a very positive change.

A lot of what Jim mentions here - i.e. withdrawing from a Big System that seems on the verge of financial collapse --dovetails very well with Catherine Fitts' Solari movement (www.solari.com), which seems very like the Quebec-based Desjardins 'caisse populaire' credit union movement.

The 'Caisse Pop' as they say up here is very oriented towards local investors and borrowers rather than the circulation of currency in a global market; it came into being when French Canadians couldn't get a loan from the big English banks. While they're all part of the same network, each 'caisse' is independent and can set its own policies.

The Solari concept is very like that, except it adds some filters to ensure a sustainable, steady-state economy, such as weighing ecological concerns, for one.

Investing in local lifeboat strategies seems like the best long-term thing we can do right now - whether it be starting a new, sustainable-development oriented municipal political party (as just happened here in Montreal), pressuring your city to consider bringing back streetcars, or making green roofs / public organic food gardens a priority, or establishing growth boundaries -- you name it, there's a 'market' for it and it's in people's economic self-interest to pursue these strategies.

Addressing it as a question of sensible investing vs. 'the end of the world is nigh' might swing enough people the right way.

[orionoir]

in the financial world, futurists have learned never to specify a date... eg, if you're predicting dow 30,000, be damn sure not to say just when it's going to be happening. my hunch is that your predictions would be a hell of a lot more accurate if you opened up the timeframe just a tad.

america has been hurtling toward oblivion for quite some time now; i see no reason why it can't keep right on going for another decade or two. it seems inevitable that there will be some trainwreck soon, but soon is a relative thing. heck, look at the nasdaq bubble, everyone knew it was insane in 1999, but that didn't stop it from doubling and doubling again before it crashed. short sellers were ruined and ruined again before the march 2000 crash came in.

the social security bomb can be papered over for years to come, just as the california debt bomb got re-fied thirty years into the future. nuke proliferation, energy depletion, islamic/neochristian apocalypticism, all these and more can hang around in the indefinite future for quite some time to come. even the bankruptcy of the us government can be forestalled for quite some time, for as long as the chinese are willing to underwrite our lifestyle.

if you (or anyone) can accurately name the trainwreck and say within a month or two when it will happen, sheesh, run to the nearest broker, it's easy to make huge bets on future calamities. otoh, if your predictions of disaster consistently fail to bear out year after year, it doesn't mean you're not right, it just means that your timeframe is out of whack. better to predict that things will happen "during my grandchildren's lives" or some other such weasilly time period.

note: as i write, the dollar is hitting new lows against just about everything... could the bomb go off tomorrow? probably not; after all, oil's trading downward and consumer confidence is up. in general, if the market's bullish, be a bull -- as cassandra learned, there's no reward to being right when the rest of the world is wrong.

[John Muir]

And what is James Howard Kunstler doing to prepare himself for the coming Apocalypse, or clusterfuck, or whatever? Is he still going to earn his living by relying on royalities from books and magazine articles he writes that are published by large corporations? Will the newly impovrished public even have enough money to afford to buy books at $20 a pop, or whatever the price is when the dollar tanks? Has Mr. Kunstler purchased a farm? Does he even know enough about farming to sucessfully raise the roughly 600,000 calories of foodstuffs he will need to sustain him during the year (more if he has a family)?

Even with a clusterfuck, presumably everybody won't need to far. What other occupations? If Mr. Kunstler is correct about the clusterfuck, I suppose that small one-man stores just like my immigrant gand-dad ran may become viable again. But they aren't now, so when do you know that you should ditch that corporate job and open a corner grocery store or wholesale business in the city? After all, doing it under current conditions isn't going to be successful, it will only be sucessful after Wal-Mart is swept away.

Perhoas working in manufacturing, which may become viable again after Americans are impovrished to Mexican levels?

But how can we manage the glut of college-trained paper-pusher's we've cranked out over the past 50 years, paper pushers (myself included) who really have no other marketable skills?

Just saying that we'll become farmers, shopkeepers and storeclerks and factory workers isn't going to make it happen.

[Brian Miller]

John Muir-exactly! I am a classic over-educated pencil pushing nerd-bureaucrat who is basically completely helpless when it comes to "manual" things. Luckily, I am old enough and childless, so my lack of real skills will only impact myself, not a family.

I think the only real career in the post oil Mad Max world will be Warlord (the Humungus) for the particularly brutal and conniving or slave/follower. Maybe the literate can serve as flunkies/clowns/advisors to the Humungi? But, I don't have any tattoos, so how will I fit in?

[M1EK]

I've hedged as best as I can in a pseudo-city like Austin, but have always assumed that once things get particularly expensive, the mass of voters in the suburbs will get the govmint to redistribute income from the few thriving cities -- I expect to see a reduction or elimination of gasoline taxes any day now, followed in a couple of years by explicit rather than implicit subsidies from income taxes.

[Art Lewellan]

Regretfully, I can't disagree about our era's downward spiral. I'm reminded of my favorite movie review, "Titanic", 3 hours to watch some boat sink.

I've long been able to foresee the year 2040 for Portland expanding into attractive suburbs supporting stronger local economies, less dependent upon distant providers because of carefully planned construction of a regional economy. But, most of Portland's concrete development is in central city. Commuting is increasing because suburbs are not diversifying their economies beyond housing and strip malls.

I insist the lynchpin is the automobile and enjoy upsetting the hydrogen fuel cell car apple cart. Hybrid is superior in every way, especially its affect upon land-use and development, (home-based power with driving range limits). Presume the car is technically unmanageable via any fuel and our planning and development scenarios change accordingly. Poke holes in the Hydrogen fuel cell car pipe dream. It's more fun than gloating.

[Lisa]

Brian:
Shucks, it's easy:
Ever been to a local farmer's market? Or picked up a hunk of cheese at the big-ish supermarket and noticed it was made relatively nearby? Know any orgs trying to start public gardens on vacant lots? Anyone who's overly interested in regional train systems? Roller derby queens? Start talking to *those* people. Learn from them.
Art: I'm also happy to poke holes in the hybrid apple cart. Cars are still cars are still cars, with the same roads, personal (read: pedestrian and cyclist) safety, and land use issues... By which kind of car would you rather be hit? If we're talking about making room for farming again, and independent suburban economies, we're talking many fewer cars.

[josh]

Can argue with nothing you just said it all makes sense.
Thanks for posting it
Josh
http://www.cheap-car-search.com

[Art]

Lisa, yes, hybrids are just another car, but their limited driving range encourages development of local economies. The shorter distances between home and occupation, services, institutions, amenities, are accessable by means other than driving, (walking, bicycling). Local and regional mass transit systems also function better when communities build more self-sufficient economies. My point was that Hybrids have greater potential toward this end than does hydrogen.

GM's fuel cell prototypes 'drive-by-wire' technology is an attempt to reduce freeway traffic congestion via computerized tailgating. GM is planning a future so overrun with cars, computer-control is the only way to manage them/us. Please poke holes in that ultra-ridiculous hydrogen car LIE. People who should know better, actually believe it.

[ron]

the problems have been with us for 30 years. Can't blame Bush or can we. Thats the new joke in town to blame Bush for everything including the weather oohs the dems did that with a hurricane.Can't blame the dems, they have not had a idea since J. Kennedy. The dems can only walk around with their hands out looking for charity hopeing someone will beleive their lies

[jam]

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