The Final Blowout

December 6, 2004
     The Christmas shopping frenzy is upon us and I wonder if this is going to be the very last blowout of the the credit card era.  If it's true that American families are virtually maxed out on their credit card debt, and they still go on a spree to buy Christmas presents, then they will hit a very hard wall in early 2005 when those first bills roll in. Because something is happening in the financial markets, Mr. Jones.

     The currency markets have entered a supernatural realm of instability. The dollar can't continue to hemorrhage value without interest rates going up. Who would continue to hold, not to mention buy, US dollar denominated securities with the dollar losing two cents a week against the Euro and the British Pound? While it's true that nobody -- namely, China, Japan, Europe -- wants to see the US economy tank, neither do they want to write off billions in order to help American dog groomers and NASCAR marketing executives enjoy an artificially high standard of living. Only significantly higher interest rates will induce foreingers to hold onto US Treasuries.

     The US government and the Federal Reserve have played a dangerous game of jiggering deficits and ridiculously low interest rates in order to keep the public buying stuff. Retail trade (i.e. shopping) is now roughly 70 percent of the US economy, but it is not an activity that produces anything of value. The productive part of the economy has either been allowed to rot away, or has been sent to other lands. The deficit-and-interest-rate jiggering game managed to levitate a non-productive economy for a few years. But with the dollar now in free-fall, the runaway train of "consumerism" fueled by incredibly easy credit is poised to go off the rails.

     Credit, after all is money and vice versa. The dollar only represents what a consensus thinks it's worth. And if that consensus begins to think that the dollar represents X-million families of overfed slobs driving endlessly around munching on Cheez Doodles and slurping iced beverages between stops at the WalMart and the Home Depot to wield Discover cards buying things made by Chinese factory slaves who can't drive around endlessly listening to Snoop Dog while enjoying ice cold beverages -- well, they might decide that America is not such a good investment.

        Investment, after all, is a judgment about future prospects. What are the prospects of a nation that spends way more than it produces, has hocked itself to the eyeballs, and has to pay around two billion a month premium for military security in the Middle East in order to keep those overfed, over-extended "consumers" gassed up for easy motoring between the WalMart and the Home Depot in the suburban gloamings.

       So here's how I call it. Interest rates shoot way up in the first half of 2005. A lot of people sitting on multiple thousands in credit card debt go bust. A lot of mortgage holders find themselves living in McHouses they can't keep paying for. End of housing bubble. Beginning of fire sale of US residential real estate (and other assets, including stock, SUVs, and signed limited edition Thomas Kinkade prints). Cratering of "consumer" demand.  Impressive job loss. Ultimately, deflationary depression.
     Everybody will blame George W.
     All this and Peak Oil, too.
     I'll be away next Monday (Dec 13).

Comments

[Jim Holman]

Since most working people get their medical insurance through employment "impressive job loss" translates into impressive loss of medical benefits. But people still need medical care; it's just that they won't be able to pay for it. The cost of uncompensated medical care is carried by the hospitals. Hospitals then either a) go out of business or b) shift the cost of uncompensated care back to the paying customers and insurers. This makes health insurance more expensive for employers, resulting either in a) lower profits due to increased cost; b) costs passed on to customers through higher prices; or c) fewer employers offering a medical benefit.

However it plays out, it ain't pretty.

The only place I disagree with you is that George W. will NOT be blamed. This is because the right-wing propaganda machine will identify some other enemy. Tens of millions of Americans already vote against their own economic interests. Even as the economy collapses, they will cheer George W. and blame some other enemy, yet to be identified.

[Blogesota]

Jim, I think they're way ahead of us in finding someone to blame for the upcoming Clusterfuck. They will blame "terrorists" overseas (You know. Those people who are defending themselves against a US invastion. How dare they?) and the "immoral" at home. Hollywood, Homosexuals, Central Asian Immigrants, "Liberals", feminists, academics, non-Christians and the poor. This is all set up by the Right Wing intelligensia with very powerful media connections. Blame has already started.

Sounds just like China in the Forties or Cambodia in the Seventies or Germany in the Thirties. Renew your passport, drain your 401K, buy gold, learn to grow your own food, and arm yourself!

[Melissa Duchinsky]

The Final Blowout" could not be more right-on. I am sure you will get a lot of mail refuting your ideas, but I think that only means that those people are the defensive, hyper-sensitive members of the "X million" going to Home Depot and Walmart while sipping on soda and eating Cheese Doodles. I applaud your honesty. It comes at a time when people need it the most I think. I have been wondering lately about this country. It seems full of fat, religious zealots who fear choice and peace. I must have missed something. Anyway, thank you for such a funny (in a "you-have-to-laugh-about-it-because-it-really-makes-you-want-to-cry" sort of way) commentary. Keep on keepin' on...

[Ivan Bodner]

Yes, yes, yes. Why are such obvious indications of economic neglect and/or abuse being refuted. If I hear one more person say 3% of the GDP, I'm going to puke. One could muddy the waters EASILY by waxing pathetic with various economic mumbo jumbo that one could not understand, let alone debate. Mr.Kunstler nicely states, in lay terms, the reality.

[Jim Holman]

Ah yes, the reality. People definetly have a problem with the reality. I think people are used to addressing one problem at a time. But the current reality is that we have convergence of a number of problems. Any one of these problems would be bad enough, but the convergence of these problems is what some people refer to economically as the "perfect storm." As the blog title indicates, it is the convergence of these problems that puts the "cluster" into "clusterfuck."

Mr. Kunstler lays out various pieces of the perfect storm. Add to that the coming baby boom retirement, and the fact that many state and local governments are struggling now, and you realize that we're heading into this with a safety net that is already strained to the breaking point.

[orionoir]

i too believe there's a hard wind gonna blow, but i've seen enough trainwrecks (the '87 crash, nasdaq 5000, various & sundry currency debacles in equally various & sundry tinpot market-oriented dictatorships) to know that they don't happen when everybody's expecting them to happen. first half 2005 is *way* too specific a prediction -- better to be like paul volcker, predict a 75% chance of disaster in the next five years.

one thing that the doomsters all seem to overlook: even though our accounts have been insolvent for years now, the american economy hasn't crashed yet. with a current account deficit nigh on 7% of gdp, the imf would have shut us down a long time ago, excepting we're not argentina, eg, we're not shuttable downable. oil is denominated in dollars, china explicitly pegs its shekels to the dollar, the rest of the world does so implicitly: you can't crash the us economy as if it were mexico.

i don't see a crash in 2005... quite the opposite, i think dollar-denominated assets are going to have a helluva ride in the new year. (real estate, esp, will continue to run with the bulls... the crash will not come until there are gated communities in the alaska natl wildlife refuge.) the crash is going to happen in a bizarrely unexpected way when there's not a cloud the horizon. my fav scenario: china gets in a snit over us scolding it re its accidental nuking of taiwan, it starts dumping our paper outv spite (it's not like they've been holding it outv a profit motive, what's to stop them from unloading it out of pure inscrutable asian cussedness?)

[Jarrett]

Since Jim is "away" on Monday, is anyone else wondering if that's the next Black Monday and he has the inside scoop?

[Norman Lee]

You folks are all the same. A Replubican administration gets into office and they're the reason the whole world is going to crap. Forget the fact that it was Bill Clinton who rammed NAFTA down our throats, that it was Clinton that allowed 911 to happen when he refused to take custody of Bin Laden, that it has been the Democrats who have dummied up our education system, created a generation of of robots, holding out their hands waiting for their next freebie. You folks need to read up on history and take the hate glasses off so that you can see the truth.
Yes, we are in trouble, but the Replublicans have been in power for four years, the Democrats for forty plus years.

[Robert Merkamp]

Ahhh yes, witness the above poster's Conservative attack, and how original, he blamed Clinton! Forget Reganomics, forget trickle down that actually trickles up, forget common sense, let's blame Clinton because he "failed" to "take custody" of Osama Bin Laden! Scapegoating an old rival on a subject that has no relation to the topic at hand (the possible impending burst of the housing bubble vs. international terror) is fun and it diverts people from the real problem! As for NAFTA, had Clinton listened to the traditional liberal wing of his party, NAFTA would've died, not been "rammed down our throats."

And of course we then get a lecture on history, or rather the Conservative view of history, so let's clean it up and eliminate the inaccuracies shall we? The claim is that Republicans have run things the last 4 years and the Democrats the previous 40, true or fiction? Allow me to respond after I stop laughing. There, all better but I'll have to change my pants, that was too funny. The Bush Administration has been in power the last 4 years and before that Clinton ran things for 8, before that, the Republicans ran the white house for 12 years, then Carter for 4 (those evil Democrats again), and then Ford/Nixon for another 8. Since 1968, we've had 24 years of Republican Presidents and 12 years of Democrats, hmmm, who's been in control of the White House more in recent history? By the time the Bush Administration ends, that will be 40 years since 1968, with the Democrats holding the slot for 12, boy those Democrats have really been lording it over us haven't they?

The 40 year nonsense the right bandies about is actually a reflection of the Democrat's previous control of the House of Representatives. And they did hold sway over the House (never so much the Senate which switched back and forth a few times) for 40 years but folks that ended back when "Reality Bites" was in the theater and Kurt Cobain took his own life. That age is becoming increasingly irrelevant. The Republicans (led by Newt Gingrich) took over that body in 1994 and, thanks to Tom DeLay's gerrymandering, will probably retain it for some time. That was a decade ago, how long are we going to keep blaming Democrats for their "40 year domination" of government when the Republicans have held the house and senate for the last decade?

So, history. The Republicans have held control over the entire congress for the last decade (and their control has been growing stronger and stronger) and have held the presidency for 2/3 of the time in the last 36 years. Yet somehow, we're still asked to believe that it's all these Democrats that have been busily destroying America and it's just been recently that the Republicans have rose up to save the country.

[joseph zenga]

hi, some of your comments are probably right,the credit card build-up is going to fall flat on its face. there won't be any more credit card mail-outs to try to get more business as the banks will be too busy tryine to collect the large balances.houses will be lost due to a possible call on equity by the feds.people will be asked to come up with 50,000 or even 100,000 for an equity build-up that they don't have.that is why they have large mortages because they didn't have the money to start with.people are paying up tp 50%of there income instead of the usual amount of 28 to 30%.the mtgs. are based on two people working,not one.what happens when one person gets laid off?who will own these lost properties, the banks only or the cities and towns for back taxes?fannie mae and freddie mac cannot absorb the losses as they are already being subsidized by the gvt.the big real estate buys were triggered by the leniency of the mtg. companies that sold them off for a quick short profit.the coming problems will add to the crime situation because there won't be enough money for families to buy food.people will be asking neighbors to take them in because of a lack of fuel to heat there houses.how will we pay for the incarcerated people on a yearly basis?many of these people will be from foreign lands.do we ship them back to there own countries?do we board up houses because people cannot pay there rent?public transit will be shut down because there will not be enough money for the cities to come up with support. i could go on but read this first. please respond as to my thinking. joe zenga jz3121@aol.com

[tim reardon]

hey jim:
nice rant.
snoop dogg has two Gs.

[Andy R]

Let me lift this deterioraing and depressing thread a bit.
to Jim Holman:
The American people DO vote their economic interest and always have - however misguided it might have been (Roosevelt in 1940 comes to mind)

Kunstler has been predicting the collapse of this house of cards since 1996 when he published Geography of Nowhere. I'm not presenting this as an argument against his theories. I happen to agree with many of them. But keep in mind, when you write about the impending doom of society and you want to sell books, disaster MUST be just around the corner. I believe that eventually, at least some of what Kunstler theorizes will come to pass - but not tomorrow and probably not as hard and fast as you might be lead to believe.

If the worst does happen in the next year, the only way Bush will escape blame is if it is precipitated by a major attack and even then, I don't think we are that naive (anymore). But look for every left wing nutbag (no offense to present company) to claim the neocons "let it happen" to justify the next war.
Oh, and to Robert Merkamp:
Please don't confuse conservatism with the current cabal in the White House - Bush and LBJ have more in common than Kennedy and LBJ ever did.
A true conservative does not seek empire and does not seek to expand government to serve the interests of his own party.
There is no conservative government in power at the moment.
When one is elected you will be able to tell by the absence of conflict with nations that haven't attacked us, the absence of payroll taxes that subsidize the constituencies of Congressional representatives and senators and the absence of federal control over the (mis)education of our children.

[Doctor Doom]

While I agree with a lot of Mr. Kunstler's analysis, we should all remember that Mr. Kunstler's track record as a prophet leaves something to be desired. Some of us can recall his confident predictions about the total collapse of civilization as we know it due to the Y2K computer bug.

As far as the politics of laying blame to the current crappy state of our once-great nation -- It's entirely the fault of the right wing, whether Republican or Democrat. The right wing conventional wisdom has been ascendant and the liberals have been on the run in this country for at least 25 years, you can't blame the left for what;s gone wrong in this country, they've had no power to make thing happen for a long time. Even Clinton, who had some admirable qualities, was nothing more than a moderate republican in Democratic clothing.

The Right owns this mess 100%, the only alternative is either the Left will clean it up, or the clusterfuck will come.

[jam]

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