Oh, Come All Ye Clueless

December 20, 2004
      Time Magazine's Person of the Year had a famous father who famously remarked a decade ago that "the American way of life is not negotiable." This remains the animating principle beneath most of America's troubles in the world.

      A good many people in the United States probably still agree with this notion, but how realistic is it? How long can America base its economy on suburban land development? Realistically, that way of doing things has to end now. Unless we want to try to turn the entire Middle East (including Saudi Arabia) into an occupied colony, which would seem beyond our military capacities, to put it mildly, since we can't even enforce civil order in Iraq.

      To keep the suburban expansion going indefinitely we will need to continue using one-quarter of the world's oil every day. Since this resource is about to head over the all-time peak production arc, there will be incrementally a few percentages less total oil produced every year after the peak. We'll probably have to occupy Venezuela, too, and Nigeria, to keep the suburban expansion going -- not to mention the daily operation of it, with the sixty mile commutes and the estimated average seven car trips per day per household to chauffeur kids and run errands. As we maintain our oil consumption under these conditions, other nations will have to use proportionately less. How will the Europeans and the Chinese feel about that? Will there be discontent over it? And might it affect our relations with them?

      We also have a problem with natural gas (methane), the stuff that heats half of the houses in America and powers virtually all of the electric power plants built after 1980. The problem is that we are thirty years past our natural gas production peak in the US, and you tend to get natural gas from the continent you're on, because it is transported by a pipeline network. Otherwise, you have to liquify it, pump it into special, expensive tanker ships, and re-gasify it when it gets to special port terminals, all of which is costly, by the way. We have very few of these terminals and they are facilities that no community wants built near them (because of the potential explosive hazard) so even if we wanted to import a lot of natural gas, we're not prepared to do it anytime soon.

     We also have to continue to pretend that we have money. We've been successful at pretending to be an affluent nation in recent years because of the intimate notional connection between money and credit. On the grand scale, money is credit because a currency is only worth what a consensus of people engaged in trade believe it is. That belief is in turn intimately connected with what people think the prospects are for a society to continue to be successful, i.e. capable of generating wealth. Americans have come to believe that buying houses on credit is a wealth-producing activity.

      There's an awful lot of evidence that a suburban building boom, based on credit, will eventually lose credibility. Other people in the world may notice that the building of McHouses and WalMart stores is not an activity that in itself produces enduring value. And there's a connection between the words credibility and credit. The net result may be a society having to revert to the value of the real things that can be sold (made "liquid"). This list of things is hierarchical beginning with those things that have indisputable value (gold and gems) to those things that have elastic value (paintings by William Merrit Chase and common stock in the Krispy Kreme Corporation), to those things that may have little-to-marginal value if living conditions change (Hummer cars and McHouses built far away from any town). The medium of exchange for these items, the dollar, may itself lose credibility, which would complicate matters.

      Time's Person of the Year has functioned as the cheerleader-in-chief for the non-negotiable way of life. Whatever his biological lineage, he was raised in that part of the nation most devoted to the suburban paradigm. The Person of the Year has demonstrated no capacity to imagine different arrangements. In this, he is not any different than either his lieutenants, his cohorts, his recent election opponent, or indeed of the American public itself. Even a so-called environmental leader like Amory Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute has devoted his attention to developing cars that get better fuel milage, not to walkable communities.

     So, come all ye clueless. Enjoy one of the last Christmases that will be characterized by easy motoring and Ditech miracle mortgages. Since our way of life is non-negotiable, get ready for reality to arbitrate it for us.

Comments

[Tom Andersen]

As an aside to your main point, Shell Oil-TransCanada think they know the solution to the problem of not being able to find a town that wants a liquefied natural gas terminal: build it in the middle of Long Island Sound. Details here at my blog: http://thissphere.blogspot.com/2004/12/flea-on-buttocks-of-shell-oil.html

[Brian Miller]

I thought this was pretty much on topic:

From www.juancole.com (Informed Consent)

The Financial Times correspondents William Wallis and Mark Huband draw attention to yet another worrying possibility. The Saudis are concerned that volunteers who went to fight in Iraq are getting serious training and becoming battle-hardened, and that they may in future turn their new-found skills against the kingdom itself. They write, ' "The big trend for the coming 20 years will be the Iraqi jihad veterans. They are being seen as the extreme threat for the coming period. One key challenge is to establish who they are and where they are going, in order to make sure that the same mistake is not made as was made with the Arab Afghan veterans who fought against the Soviet Union," the senior European intelligence official said. '

Given al-Qaeda's increasing emphasis within Saudi Arabia on attacking US targets, and given Usama Bin Laden's recent call for targetting oil facilities, the prospect of several hundred Saudi jihadis returning battle hardened from Iraq is indeed scarey. The FT does not note a parallel threat, which is that the Saudi Shiites of al-Hasa (that is where your petroleum is coming from, folks, so you should know the name) could become radicalized by increased contact with groups like the Sadr movement in Iraq. Saudi Arabia's oil pipelines are extremely vulnerable to attack, and right now the kingdom is probably pumping some 13% of the petroleum produced in the world every day (11 million barrels a day out of a little over 80 million a day pumped). Drastic reductions in Saudi production because of persistent sabotage could throw the world into economic recession.

[Ursula]

You wrote:
>>How long can America base its economy on suburban land development?<<

Is that what America's economy is based?

Who knew?

[Jim Holman]

Unfortunately, candidates in the U.S. don't win elections by telling people what they don't want to hear. Who was that guy in the sweater who talked about the energy crisis being the "moral equivalent of war?"

Concerning the "Saudi jihadis returning battle hardened from Iraq," I think that's exactly what's going to happen, except not just in Saudi Arabia. What we're doing in Iraq is providing a graduate education in a) how to fight against a modern mechanized military force, and b) how to attack the fragile infrastructure of a modern society. That knowledge is portable, and will be carried throughout the region.

[Jake]

It's even harder when the developers adn property owner do their best to discourage anyone from walking. There are residential areas that border on big shopping centers but does anyone plan a few bike/pedestrian paths to connect a side street with a busy mall? Nooooooo! Let them walk/cycle 3/4 of a mile on busy multi-lane roads rather than walk 150 yards on a path!

[aj]

Add Alberta to the list of potential invasion targets. Barring dramatic climate change that freezes/dries up our reservoirs, northern Quebec's hydro dams are a strategic reserve as well. There were Carter-era plans for the New England National Guard to invade Quebec if it ever separated, I was shocked to recently learn.

I am also rather disappointed in Amory Lovins' wholehearted, wrongheaded embrace of hydrogen cars: As a physicist he ought to know better; he should have asked a chemist.

Still, his overall work, particularly with Paul Hawken and the Natural Capital Institute on creating a new 'restorative economics,' is of value and isn't to be dismissed. Market systems and forces will not disappear, but we can make them work for us rather than against us, by changing the rules of the game.

As for suburbia, well, Hollywood gets the blame for far too much these days, but have you ever noticed that rarely a second of screen time goes by where suburbia is not seen as cozy comfortland, and cities are grimy dens of iniquity?

Nearly every Spielberg film has this message somewhere in there. Even shows and movies that try to show 'the dark side' of the suburbs, or poke fun at it in standard countercultural-complaint fashion ("ticky-tacky boxes on a hill") really only focus on the symptoms, and never the root causes of suburban angst: isolation, debt, and competitive consumerism.

[Andy R]

aj,
Those invasion plans for Quebec? I think Carter used them to try and rescue the Iranian hostages <;-P

[phonono]

I'm not sure how is that last comment supposed to be funny.

My home town, one of the most polluted cities in North America, was the starting point one of the biggest multinational groups, Noranda Mines. In the beginning of the seventies, that company (which had its head office far from my hometown of course) worked with the US government to topple the Chilean governement (Allende wanted to nationalize the copper industry) while toying with the price of copper, resulting in the demise of one of the biggest copper mines.

In the Eighties, a big shopping center was built in the middle of the city of 25,000. They built it on a swamp, near a high school, and expropriating mobile home owners by the same extent.

In the Nineties, it was beginning to look ok until Wal-Mart built a huge store on the outskirts of the city, resulting in the end of the shopping center built in the Eighties and killing what little was left of the city center.

And the people asked me why my motto was "No Future"...

[Andy R]

phonono,
You have to appreciate the ineptitude with which Carter handied the hostage crisis in 1979, culminating in the failed rescue attempt. I think it extremely unlikely that we would invade Canada - if we did where would we send our dissidents? (sorry, more unsolicited humor on my part - I get that way towards Christmas)

You're fairly isolated out there in western Quebec. Is the pollution ground water related from the copper mines? Did other industries conribute?

[phonono]

I vaguely remember the hostage crisis as I was 9 years old at the time. All I can remember is that I thought it was quite awful to do all this damage in the name of God but I learned that the former regime of the shah had no clean hands either. I could not see it from an USAn point of view as I am not USAn.

The isolation in Northwestern Quebec is relative. My hometown is about the same distance from Montreal and Toronto (600 km, i dont know the equivalent in miles...) and even if most of the river pollution was caused by Noranda Mines' smelter (with a reverberation technique to separate the copper in the chalcopyrite mineral) there was the occasional fallout from Sudbury's nickel smelter 450 km away. The mine waste was thoughtlessly disposed of in the lakes surrounding my hometown. Five lakes are still considered biologically dead.

The parallel between Noranda and Wal-Mart is that most of the money made goes OUT of the hands of the people living there and INTO the hands of a very tiny group of individuals who do not invest back. All they care about is unionization (which they are against) and paying taxes (which they are trying to avoid).

To get back on topic, my sister-in-law had a big reality check this year, two years after ridiculing me for refusing to "invest" in a car. I live in downtown Montreal, 1 minute from a subway station and two major bus route, 10 minutes from the interurban bus lanes, 15 minutes from the main railway station. Anything I want I can get there on a bike or on foot very quickly. Anyhoo, her son was asking me why I didnt have a car, to which I replied i didnt need one. The sister-in-law, picking me up in downtown Quebec City, laughed and said :"Well you sure could have used one now". She lives on a military base, 45 km from downtown Quebec City. There is only one bus lane that passes every hour. No buses on Sundays. The rail line was dismantled in the 70's and there is an almost unused bike lane instead, which is actually more used in the winter as a snowmobile trail.
To cut the story short, Last summer her car was totaled by a moronic woman who, to save time, engaged in the wrong way at 80 km/h (in a 30 km/h zone). Nobody was harmed, luckily, but she had no car for one week.
Needless to say she felt completely isolated. And to add insult to injury, her husband's car (they have two cars of course) was back from the repair shop, but she refused to learn to drive manual (and still does) so she had to use the deficient mass transit system. There, the recently merged city of Québec (marking a jump from 160,000 to 490,000) is still debating (after 25 years) the utility of a tramway or light rail system, even though that city made up of dozens of villages merged into one, ythat has a high atmospheric pollution level and a highways system designed by incompetent engineers (ex. two lanes enter the Parliament hill and the tunnel were never completed after 1970's -- http://www.radio-canada.ca/regions/Quebec/nouvelles/200210/30/005-bretelles.shtml )
People here also are always whining about taxes and how everything costs so much. Unfortunately, when you are going for the cheapest way for everything, you eventually end up with very cheap services.

[Andy R]

You are fortunate to live where a car is optional. You can always rent one if you need it for a short time and still come out ahead in overall costs.
Things are the same in America, except that our highways are better subsidized. If rail were subsidized like the highways are, we would likely have a premier system, but then the auto makers would have a hard time of it and they still hold sway.
Being Kunstler's blog, this would be where we agree that the misinvestment we have made will one day haunt us when cheap oil dependability vanishes.

[orionoir]

re the idea that a generation (or so) of ex-iraq jihadi wb causing trouble for us interests for the next 20 years (brian miller, above)-- you have to wonder re the longevity of these guys... aren't they taking casualties at a much higher rate that their afghan antecedents?

what worries me more is the seemingly inexhaustible supply of suicide bombers the insurgents seem to have. this suggests that the generation to fear is youngest one of all, since presumably martyrs get on that career path at an early age. that today's times notes a doubling of severe malnutrion in iraq since the invasion does not bode well.

[aj]

hé salut phonono, un autre YULblogueur.... :)

It is rather sadly true that we Quebecers, and Canadians in general, like to believe our own tourist brochures. We like to imagine that we have some sort of Infinite, Great Unspoiled Wilderness outside our cities' doorsteps, when in fact we have despoiled the landscape through a century's worth of car-centric development.

Only winter temperatures prevent urban sprawl from going further north, but that's also bad because it allows unregulated extractive industries (Noranda, Alcan, Cascades, Macmillan-Bloedel etc.) to operate out there, clearcutting and/or polluting happily away, out of sight and out of mind.

One thing I find perverse is that, Toronto excepted, there are virtually no streetcar systems left in Canada, even though the Canadian government is constantly bailing out Bombardier, one of the world's largest makers of light and standard rail systems.

A good collective-action solution might be to mandate that federal funds will be made available only if cities and provinces transfer road-expansion budgets into mass transit...a more sensible application of the US DOT funding-as-leverage principle. It will work if, and only if, we make it the only viable choice, though the application of carrots-and-sticks economic
policies.

I'm sure it will cost the same or less to expand light rail or a Toronto-style above/underground metro to everywhere in the suburbs (with stations within 5 minutes' walk of every home) as to put in 8 more lanes of freeway. The secret is to build in true-cost accounting, such as, accounting for the economic value of time lost in traffic jams, costs to the healthcare system of disease caused by car emissions, the subsequent loss of productivity due to such illness, and even down to the individual consumer cost of owning and maintaining a car.

[Andy R]

aj,
Accounting for intangibles is a tricky business - hard to defend and easiily manipulated, and therefore rarely credible.

Nevertheless, it's easy to see that "bailing out" public transportation while "funding" its competition (the interstate highway system)is just one more symptom of bloated government treated as a source of endless goodies by special interests. We've been doing the same thing with agriculture for over 70 years now.

At the risk of ruffling feathers on this blog, I think a quote from Reagan seems to fit here:
"Government is not the solution to our problems, government IS the problem."

Too bad there was little action to back up that rhetoric...

[aj]

Emphysema and asthma are pretty tangible...as is time wasted due to traffic.

Andy, and anyone else who's interested, the whole 'government is the menace' thing is a Republican canard, a broad brush used to tar their opponents. The US government at the moment is the LARGEST it has ever been in its entire history including WWII, under the so-called 'smaller government' party...

And there's a reason for that. When it comes to large, society-wide collective-action problems, the free market cannot be counted upon to deliver the right solution. Governments can.

Thomas Frank's book What's The Matter With Kansas describes where this series of wrongheaded, radical, but so-called conservative ideas comes from, documents quite adequately why they don't hold up to a shred of empirical scrutiny, and sadly chronicles the effect of their policies on real people's lives.

The confluence of culture-war issues and pro-corporate boosterism makes people vote for the practical eradication of the very 'heartland' they think they are defending.

Capital-P Populism rose up to demand agricultural subsidies and price controls, because family farmers' output was uncertain, buffeted between the Dust Bowl on one side and usurious rail freight costs on the other. When monopolies gouged consumers, antitrust legislation emerged.

Without so-called Big Government responding to popular demand, there would not have been rural electrification and telephone service, Social Security, and later, the GI Bill.

Most of the now-dismantled reforms were not imposed from above as the neocon legend would have it, but were true grassroots reforms demanded by the people, fought for over nearly 40 years, from the launch of the Populist movement in 1890 to the enacting of the New Deal in the 1930s.

Today, the situation is very different. After NAFTA, GATT and the WTO, after the Clinton-era Dems decided they wanted to court big business instead of their traditional worker base, the reforms which made the idolized, post-WWII world possible have all been rolled back. There are no unions or Farmer's Leagues to raise hell anymore. We have workfare (almost slavery under a different name), the imminent privatization of Social Security by the same goons responsible for the S&L scandal, millions fired or outsourced or downsized -- and people lap it up and ask for more punishment because they think the party of the ruling plutocracy is somehow on their side.

The special interest groups demanding -and getting - endless goodies are not unions or minorities or insert-code-word-here groups, but corporations. Archer Daniels Midland, the Koch Corporation, ConAgra, Enron, Sprint, Cargill, General Electric. Huge, ubiquitous, unstoppable. They get towns to go bankrupt bidding to become their new corporate seats, they turn farming into something more akin to strip mining, and through a well-organized Noise Machine (as David Brock puts it), convinces working people to vote against their own economic interests in the name of 'smaller gummint' or eternally-promised, never-delivered conservative hot-button-issue legislation.

The solution is not larger or smaller government but good government, effective government.

[Andy R]

aj,
Wow -I wanted to elicit a response and got a good one :-)
I totally concede your point re the current size of government - and that it is being used by the current administration much as it was by previous administrations to serve their ends. I wouldn't call the current administration conservative by any means... and as I said, while Reagan talked the talk, he never walked the walk.
I'm all for grass roots movements - in primary education particularly - (I notice you wisely left that off your list of government accomplishments) Big government responses to popular demand, however well-intentioned, ultimately degenerate into either mestasizing bureaucracies (ala Social Security,etc.)or pork barrel projects where the politically connected dole out goodies to their favored constituents (ala corporate welfare).
I agree that large corporations hold the biggest special interest presence in DC and they do exercise an undue influence that often opposes the will of the people.

My point would be that the tool of government is bound to be misused (ultimately) by whomever wields it, and the best way to minimize the damage is to minimize the size of the tool.

The Republicans are not the "smaller government" party - on that we agree. But the fact that they have exploited that image to serve other ends does not mean we should not have a smaller federal government - in fact, I'd say it proves that we should!

The best social programs are conceived, executed and administered locally, based on local needs. I think this approach compliments Kunstler's ideas about where we need to go in the post cheap-oil era.

Getting government out of our lives does not mean leaving individuals to their own devices, but it does mean letting individual communities set and enforce their own standards for education, development and lifestyle choice.

Without the undue influence of big government that we often see today, I believe that communities will make choices that are right for them in the long run.

[aj]

Andy, I see the merits in your argument. Bureaucracy can become counterproductive, and it is easy to find examples of waste or even criminal abuse ($600 hammers?).

But what do you call "undue influence," other than citing these exceptions rather than the rule?

The New Deal bureaucracy is, like the LAPD, there to serve and protect. Without it, there would be practically no organized, countervailing force against rapacious corporate hegemony.

De-toothing the Federal government, leaving things up to underfunded State or local governments (thanks to tax cuts!), is a recipe for disaster. What good are tougher SEC, FDA or EPA laws if there is no budget for inspections and enforcement, for instance?

A concrete example of this in action is Smithfield Foods, the largest pork producer in the US and moving towards becoming a global corporation. In the US, it brazenly de-levels the playing field by buying up local slaughterhouses, denying smaller, family or organic producers access, ultimately forcing them to sell out. They use antibiotic-intensive factory farming techniques which increase the chances for disease to enter the food chain. In one tragic incident, profit-oriented bad practices resulted in a hog waste spill into the Neuse River, killing millions of fish and infecting fishermen with pfiesteria bacteria, which attacks the nervous system. Several of these fishermen can now no longer even remember their own names.

This isn't a tragic one-off affair: it's business as usual in a world where, in the name of "deregulation," profit trumps the public interest every time. In the wake of these incidents, there were public protests demanding *more* regulation, not less!

But when things like this happen, the right-wing noise machine -- the pet think tanks and pundits -- then calls these federal institutions, previously hobbled under the same people's clarion call to Free Market Nirvana, ineffective and then suggests we do away with them altogether, as they only serve to harm "small businesspeople." (Small being anything under a billion dollars, these days.)

"The Free Market will police itself," they say. Pure bunkum, I say. Only national or state institutions, well-funded and teeth in place, staffed and headed by people without conflicts of interest, can enforce public safety, set a level playing field, and ensure we are not defrauded.

In almost every example I can think of where 'local standards' were allowed to overwrite national ones, the result was disaster. Forcing school vouchers doesn't save anyone any money; it just bankrupts the public system further and enriches the private sector. Municipal councillors almost never say no to new development, regardless of best practices for land use or reducing transit time or whether the cash generated by a new Wal-Mart stays in the community or not -- because the councillors tend to be in bed with developers and car salesmen.

And, uh, lifestyle choice? I don't want my neighbors in my bedroom any more than I want the Government, thank you very much!

[Andy R]

aj,
"Lifestyle choice" was a poor choice of words on my part. I was thinking in terms of shared community values not being usurped by things like the current interpretation of the separation of church and state, among other "politically correct" campaigns. After re-reading, I know where you thought I was coming from on that...

Again, aj, good points, but we will have to agree to disagree as to the value of governmental solutions to social problems.
I do happen to agree with you on environmental issues - they are a hard sell when it comes to free markets. Imagine how bad the pollution would be in urban areas if the explosion in the quantity of automobiles was not complimented by the reduced emissions made necessary by the Clean Air Act.
Now that the Clean Air Act is a given, private enterprise has made possible the production of nearly zero emission vehicles.
On the other hand, the sprawl development patterns have made excessive automobile use mandatory, which brings me to my next point..
Having school-age kids; to me, "undue influence" is mainly a function of federal meddling in primary education - shoving mandates such as "No Child Left Behind" onto local schools whether the particular school needs it or not. But the federal social experiment that was most destructive to schools, neighborhoods and our society as a whole was forced bussing, which went beyond desegregation and attempted to reshape society by bringing people together in a most unnatural way.

I've never seen Kunstler, as a moderate leftie, acknowledge this historical clusterfuck as a prime cause for an entire generation of suburban sprawl, but having seen it first-hand in my own neighborhood as a child, I believe that the wave of sprawl that began in the 1970s and continues to this day was a direct result of this practice.
Eisenhower's interstates facilitated what the Johnson and Nixon administration social policies inspired among the middle class.
What was once known as "white flight" (now a misnomer used to evade valid criticism of failed policy)is now practiced by all who seek to escape the abomination that our urban - and now many suburban - public schools have become. This to me is a prime example of an oppressive federal government, acting against the will of the people under the guise of social justice. The mestasizing public school bureaucracy is, to me, the most egregious misallocation of public resources in our history and is the epitome of an out of control federal government that has lost all crebility among those it pretends to serve.

While your points on development issues are accurate on the surface, I believe that the earlier federal efforts I outlined above had much to do with the demand created for the development patterns we see today.

Bureauratic inertia makes responsive government a very iffy proposition, given the tendency toward endless growth of those bureaucracies and the increasing inability to change things once they are established.
It's all about too much power in the hands of the unaccountable - government is the biggest monopoly of them all - insulated from the public by large bureuacracies that are accountable to no one.
If we could be assured of "national or state institutions, well-funded and teeth in place, staffed and headed by people without conflicts of interest" life would be grand.
Cynic that I am however (and backed up by history, I believe); over time, if not at the outset, those institutions are bound to become what I've described above.

[Kevin Carson]

America's way of life is not negotiable.

Except for a few things like, you know, the right to travel from one state to another without having your federal ID stopped at a checkpoint. Or not to have every email you send and every purchase you put on your Visa tracked by a giant database at Ft. Meade. Or not having a Commander-in-Chief who can declare citizens "enemy combatants" by executive fiat and strip them of citizenship and send them to Gitmo; or declare any radical organization to be "terrorist" and seize its assets.

But the right to go to the mall and BUY STUFF, now, THAT'S non-negotiable.

[boymedexam]

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[jam]

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