Predictions for 2005

January 3, 2005
      I'm going to stick my neck out and make some predictions for the coming year.

      -- Kenneth Deffeyes of Princeton has already stuck his neck out and called 2005 the year of the global oil production peak. We'll go neck-and-neck with him. (Colin Campbell and others are holding out for 2007.) We'll only truly know in the rearview mirror, but we are apt to see a lot of turbulence in the oil markets as they apprehend the approaching peak. It is extremely significant, for instance, that Venezuela's Hugo Chavez has decided to give favored customer status to China. Chavez would like nothing better than to turn the screws on the United States. Under the China deal, there will be a lot less imported oil for the US. This alone guarantees substantial price increases for Americans this year. We'll know this year whether the Saudis have truly lost their ability to boost production and act as the world's swing producer; their super-giant Ghawar oil field is pumping half-seawater these days. 2005 could also be the year that west Africa becomes so politically chaotic that oil production and export suffers dramatically. US natural gas storage is high now, but production continues to decline. If the winter weather turns harshly cold, we'll have problems. The past two summers in the northeast have been supernaturally cool, with barely two consecutive days over ninety degrees. If we have even a normal cooling season, it may also be one of electrical blackouts. 2005 will be the year that the public gets panicky about the global energy predicament.

     -- The Iraq elections will be a fiasco. Few Iraqis will venture to go to the polls, which become wholesale targets for rocket, morter, and suicide attacks. Interim President Iyad Allawi is declared the winner by default, since there is no other alternative. American policy will be to take the path of least resistence and let Allawi rule -- assuming he isn't assassinated -- and make it his responsibility both to organize another election and to impose basic civil security, which may be utterly beyond his government's abilities. US forces will withdraw from the Iraqi cities (and peacekeeping duties) to bases out in the desert where they will revert to the primary strategic mission (perhaps futile) of attempting to exert a modifying influence over Iran and Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile. Iraqi Shi'ites (Allawi) and the Sunnis (including old Baathists) will have a civil war. God knows what will happen to Iraq's oil infrastructure. US forces can't guard it all.

     -- In 2005, China continues its policy of securing natural resource contracts (oil and metals) around the world. Several friction points may develop between China and the US. A slacking off in "consumer" spending in the US as Americans choke on credit payments will prompt China to search desperately for a group of new customers for manufactured goods. China will find some in Brazil but few elsewhere and ultimately won't be able to replace its shredding US customer base. China will orchestrate a movement among adjacent former Soviet republics to terminate American military base leases there. If China is pissed off enough, it will turn the heat up on Taiwan, forcing the US to pretend that we would intervene on behalf of Taiwan -- a pretense the whole world would see through, and which would be a major sign of America's waning ability to project power around the world. Eventually, trouble in the US economy may lead to political turmoil in China as factory workers are laid off in enormous numbers and begin to make trouble in the streets.

      -- Speaking of the US economy (aka, the dual WalMart / Housing bubble), here's what I see: the fantastic apparatus of mortgage-and-credit creation wobbles as misfeasance in Fannie Mae combines with a falling dollar and loss of overseas customers for US debt to cause interest rates to rise substantially. Rising interest rates crush large numbers of homeowners holding absurd mortages on over-priced houses that never should have been granted in the first place (and only were because lending standards turned to shit over the past decade.) Also clobbered are "consumers" over-extended on credit card debt (who are actually the same people as the ruined homeowners). A knockout punch comes in the form of up-ratcheting oil-and-gas prices, which thunder through the economy as price inflation. The housing bubble pops like a zeppelin and a giant sale of distressed properties begins, with house prices plummeting. (Prices on other things, especially food, shoot up.) Yesterday, the New York Times ran a typically clueless business section story on an expected bull market in corporate mergers. This was pawned off as a sign of economic vitality; I see it as an obvious sign of weakness. Virtually all mergers will result in substantial layoffs of workers, as merged companies seek first to eliminate payroll redundancy. Many mergers will represent the desperate marriage of losers, for instance Sears and K-Mart, two giant chain retailers who had lost out to WalMart and Target for a huge-but-limited customer base, and were headed down the drain. Now Sears and K-Mart will head down the drain together as that customer base becomes even more limited by the credit default orgy of 2005.

     -- After a long cycle of dominance the Republicans begin to pay a price for their stupidity and greed. An economically hard-pressed public will become inflamed over White House efforts to go easy on illegal immigration. Bush and Co. will be blamed for all the economic travails cited above. Meanwhile, the Democrats, led by the wraith-like Harry Reid (Nevada), will stand idly by without a single idea in their collective heads. In a better world, this would lead to the formation of a new-and-improved progressive opposition. But in this imperfect world, what we are apt to see instead is the formation of several big movements on the lunatic fringe: hardcore isolationists, anti-immigrationists, and biggest of all, a tsunami of the formerly middle-class -- all those ruined home owners and credit card bankrupts who will demand political action to bring back their lost 'entitlements.' These are the people who could lead the United States into a kind of corn-pone Naziism.

    -- Finally, there is a whole category of events that we have to classify as "the uncallables." An islamist maniac could bring down the al Saud dynasty with one well-placed bomb. Of course there could be some kind of major terrorist strike in the US or Europe. It's impossible to predict events like last year's multiple hurricane assault on Florida, or the tidal waves that killed multiple thousands in the Indian Ocean last month. There hasn't been an attempt on a US president's life in twenty years and there will be no shortage of homegrown ticked-off crazies here. Who knows what's going on inside Iran (perhaps not even the CIA). The Boston Red Sox might even win a consecutive world series. Considering what we face, that wouldn't be so strange. In the immortal words of Bette Davis's character in All About Eve, "Fasten your seat belts, everybody. It's going to be a bumpy ride."

     Oh yes, in May 2005 the Atlantic Monthly Press will publish The Long Emergency by the overworked editor of Clusterfuck Nation, Jim Kunstler.

Comments

[minuteman]

I am charmed by your sunny optimism, but I wonder if we can be so lucky and avoid REAL disaster this year. As these scenarios unfold, I am puzzled as to why there is no voice of leadership on the Left. Is it because the mass media are the king makers and we don't believe there is a leader until they tell us? Or is it that all the stuffed shirts we supported and elected are really owned by the same corporations now in control of our government and they have been silenced out of fear of losing their precious spot on the underbelly of the American hog?

[carlostheobscure]

I feel its my duty as a long-time "glass is half empty" sort of fellow to try to be a little more gloomy than JK.

Any and all JK's predictions in the arena of political economy are not only possible but probable if one looks a decade out. Next year--who knows? The timing of these things are inherently unpredictable--otherwise, we could all make a mint shorting Fannie Mae's stock.

What I think the Indian Ocean event underscores is how the human population is now so vast that it has become a geologic entity per se. Although there are assuredly still an empty quarter or two, people are now thick in the most geologically and meterologically active areas--coastlines, river valleys, etc. so that any given big event is as likely as not to result in staggering casualties. By my calculations, the natural daily increase in the human population is roughly equal to the number of people who perished in the recent tsunamis.

For demographic reasons alone, the 21st century will almost inevitably be a century of mass disasters. And leaving storms and earthquakes aside, people due to their biomass alone amount to the biggest payoff ever in the microbiogical sweepstakes for that "lucky" pathogen waiting to emerge.

Its realistic and rational to view one's life as a highly improbable gift enmeshed in a tragic world and then to root out joy whereever one can. The next couple decades are going to be quite a ride and I hope to be a witness.

[Dennis T Cheung]

"The next couple decades are going to be quite a ride and I hope to be a witness."

In that vein, let me be so bold as to predict that the sun will come out everyday this week in the continental US (not sure about Alaska).

But in reponse to Mr. Clusterfuck's prediction, a lot of the financial turmoil hinges on American consumers consuming less due to debt. I don't think American consumers understand this concept nor do they care how fucked up their situation is. So I think this can probably be postponed for another year. Especially since it hinges on interest rates rising, which leads me to...

A critical point that is missing (or maybe I glanced over it) is any mention of the slide of the US dollar's value. I predict it will continue to slump versus Euros/Yen leading to quarterly "record new lows".

[Fazal Majid]

Er, Allawi is both a (secular) Shi'ite and an ex-Baathist. He used to be the thuggish enforcer for Baath party discipline among expatriate Iraqi students in the UK.

[Kevin B Dayton]

That's far too gloomy. Deffeyes is a credible source, but his prediction is far too early. Oil prices have settled near $40 now, and prices will probably stay there for several years. Remember, Hurricanes, violence in Africa, problems in Iraq, and a strike in Norway caused oil prices to soar. Now, 2005 might be the year demand outstrips supply. That's the important date.

Kunstler believes that Americans will eventually elect a quasi-Hitler, who will promise to restore the golden age. While this is a viable possibility in the future, we're not going to see the emergence of a glut of disgruntled middle class peasents in 2005.

Here's a good quote that everybody with a bad prediction should read:

"for as certainly as a man predicts ill, he becomes inclined to wish it. The pride of having his judgement right hardens his heart, till at last he beholds with satisfaction, or sees with disappointment, the accomplishment or the failure of his predictions."- Thomas Paine

-Kevin

[Andy R]

Whoa Kevin!
Your quote is well-placed, that's for sure!
Seems our founding generation also dealt with well-stated and reasoned predictions borne of a desire to experience the satisfaction of seeing them come to pass.
Personally, I think Kunstler makes excellent points that merit consideration, but as I posted here earlier, if you're business is predicting disaster and you want to sell books, that disaster MUST ALWAYS be just around the corner.
By the time it becomes apparent that the disaster isn't occuring, the book sales have already peaked.

[orionoir]

i've often criticized your economic/market predictions for unwarranted confidence vis a vi timeframe, but i must say, this set of predictions seems unassailable.

can i add one more prediction with perhaps an interesting market play (for those venal types who have no scruples re profiting on human calamity)? i say the tsunami disaster will lead to a spike in the price of gold. asians are big believers in the yellow metal, and i think that those who were spared will renew their hording; also, it's inevitable that relief funds will find their way into private accounts, and these two will tend toward gold.

[karl with a k]

One comment on Bush's assasination. Killing him will grant Karl Rove a martyr to push on his political tools, the anti-choice, gas-guzzleing, gun nuts. "George died protecting your american values." Then, dick will come into office. Not the most loved man by anyone. However, Karl Rove will manipulate the public with the martyr to propel dick into the hearts of the people who have no heart. “Oh look at dick doing the job that could get him killed because he loves america’s freedom. Don’t you love freedom? Don’t you love dick?” Can’t you hear it now?

Karl Rove is drooling to push a martyr. If things get as bad as you predict, I bet Karl Rove has something to do with an assasination.

[Michael]

Am new to the blog, but was impressed with the analysis on what is probable/possible in 2005. What most miss is the relationship to the change in the economic reality of capitalism today. Historically, this economy would see layoff, return to work, and enhancement of the productive process:one worker does the work of two, etc. Today, we see the elimination of human labor in the workplace, this in addition to the race to the bottom of the wage ladder.
This is the basis of the process in the housing bubble, that will for sure pop. People have NO money. Check to check is where we live in our country. One wage earner in the family misses a check, and it is about time to move to the shelter.
The probability of fascism in our country is real. We have a working class that has political consciousness that is forged by Fox news, in addition to GE, and Disney. What can you expect ?
The need today is to create a level of class consciousness in the people. The people of our country are not stupid. Merely not politically aware of the reality of what is possible given a technological economy, that can produce enough commodities so where as there would be no need to move to the shelter, or under the bridge.
I would suggest people check out the Labor Party web site, and the League of Revolutionaries for a New America web site.
It is worth mentioning, that Hitler was elected by a working class that was amongst the most sophisticated in Europe at the time. This was done with the capitulation of the Social Democratic left, who utterly failed in understanding fascism as the most reactionary/ revolutionary sector of the capitalist class
Michael

[oyster]

Like Michael, I'm new to the blog as well. Shame on me!

I certainly have a lot of catching up to do.

[Anthony]

I did dream that San francisco lost the Golden Gate Bride. I don't know what happened but the entire bridge was under-water as if the cables gave. Military and local authorities were combing the bay for bodies and cars. I did dream in 1998 that there were 2 buildings burning at the same time but these highrises were in Detroit. I predicted a hurricane would hit Detroit from Florida and everyone laughed and told me NO WAY. They said a hurricane could not survive that far north. I predict more than 1 Major blackout: 1 in summer and 1 in the winter. I predict breakouts of riots in urban black communities. I perdict an earthquake in the northeast U.S. that will rock somewhere between Chicago and New York. I predict many American School Districts will push children into home-schooling to eliminate debts federally and locally. I have many other beliefs but I choose not to discuss at this time.

[Saurav]

In response to minuteman, there's no leadership on "the Left" because the real left died and the rest was coopted into institutional settings (no pun intended). organizations like the dem. party, the aclu, etc. are like a head without a body--there's no progressive movement underneath them. afl-cio is probably the closest to a progreesive powerful institution. there are, though, decentralized, slowly emerging, grassroots efforts made up of people actually affected by the issues they're talking about--immigrant groups, worker centers, pissed off liberals, etc. but i agree that the time it would take for those groups to coalesce into a movement might be greater than the time it takes for radical rightwingers to splinter, with some of them really going off the deep end with large numbers drinking the kool aid. no one said it was going to be pretty when the u.s. finally started declining.

[midnite angel]

I predict that gangsta rap and other music such as goth will steadily decay society...and ppl seem afraid to challenge it...who is the president of the future, FIDDY CENT? Doggydog? CHINGY? And sec of state, QUEEN LATIPHA? JENNIFER LOPEZ? BIONCE?

[jaimito]

The lessons of Iraq war are lost on Mr Clusterfuck. The United States of America is so powerful that by looking hard on Saddam's million strong army, Saddam found himself hiding in a latrine. Europe and the world looked on impotently. The USA can do anything if puts its mind on it, I mean Mr Cheney, Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz. Hugo Chavez's days are counted. Oil will keep flowing to your SUV tanks and you will "pay" with devalued dollars. Herzliya will become your next Silicon Valley.

[René]

hahaaa, it seems that Mr. Kunstler was right on the money with some of his statements and general view of this past year!

[Credit Card Debt Help]

Now the US has much bigger problems than Sadaam can you say N. Korea and Iran much much more dangerous threats that need to be addressed

[Alan]

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