Hand In Hand

May 16, 2005
      I was in Tallahassee, Florida, last week talking to a large room full of planning officials. My message was pretty straightforward: every new housing subdivision, every new strip mall, every parking lagoon and big box chain-store pod that you issue approvals for from this point on will lead your country deeper into tragedy.

     The response was apathetic, as though I were giving a class in Chinese algebra.

     Florida is one of the multiple epicenters of a hypertrophic suburban growth machine that has taken the place of the US economy. Reforming it is unimaginable because without the business generated by a cancer-like replication of car infrastructure, the economy would consist of little besides hair cutting, fried chicken, and open heart surgery. In places like Florida (and California, and northern Virginia, and Las Vegas, and Dallas), all citizens are complicit in the drive toward tragedy because all want business-as-usual to continue. The idea that any set of circumstances might put a stop to it is laughable to them. What can you do for such a people determined to commit civilizational suicide?

     Meanwhile, a glance at Sunday's New York Times Magazine shows what the supposedly thinking class of America is preoccupied with these days: rescuing architectural Modernism, that 20th century system of asthetic pretensions that affected to celebrate mankind's triumph over nature by way of technology. Those boys are in for a surprise when they discover that nature gave the human race technology in order that we might choose to shoot ourselves in the head when the time came. This is what comes of humans bethinking themselves smarter than nature. Apart from it. Superior to it.

      The tragic futility of the suburban growth racket and the towering hubris of Modernism go hand-in-hand. Both rest on ideologies that drive relentlessy toward death. Both depend on a condition of widespread and extreme narcissism among individual members of society to continue their operations. Both represent a kind of wickedness that does not require religious transliteration to understand. Both will be defeated by reality.

Comments

[kd]

Great post, Jim.
Seeing how the well-heeled thinking class is preoccupied with such pleasures as rescuing architectural Modernism, discovering the latest fad diet, keeping up with celebrity high-jinks, & linking to various pop economic/psychological/high tech theories, leads me to reflect, not on any "positive" solutions that might keep the ball rolling, but on the fact that it looks like we're in for a rude awakening from our techno-capitalistic somnambulism.

Nothing like having to rely on local produce & food conservation (not to mention walking) to take care of that pesky weight problem. Nothing like a forced reduction (or elimination) of easy travel, electronic entertainment, & leisure shopping to bring about the rediscovery of family, neighbors, & self. Even that old American virtue of "self-reliance".

The strange thing about our current narcissism is that it's not so much based on obessive love of ourselves as unique individuals, but on various collective images that are relentlessly marketed, bought, & internalized by a near-hypnotized poplulace.

[Dave]

The ride ahead is the one we are on and there is no getting off to run in front of the speeding mass to plead it to stop by screaming the "Bridge is Out ahead !"

The conductor is mad as a hatter and toxic with glee and mania. I find myself being asked what we should do. I don't know is all I can say. Dave

[jy]

I must still disagree with Carlos' predictions in the previous thread on the timing of the coming collapse for several reasons.

First, America is no longer primarily an industrial society, but a consumer society. Though many alternative forms of hydrocarbons may allow heavy industry, only cheap oil can allow the heavy consumerism that alone is keeping the American economy afloat. Without cheap oil to drive the semis to stock the McWalmarts, and the cars to shop at the McWalmarts, our economy is doomed. Without the surplus capital cheap oil has made available, new energy sources will be almost impossible to power up as quickly as they will be
needed to avoid major disruptions.

Second, the alternative hydrocarbons will soon be very difficult to get at, since they are located in geographically difficult terrain and/or in countries that are hostile to us. We may not have the resources in energy, manpower, or technical ability to get hydrocarbons from the high arctic or the deep ocean when the cheap oil squeeze comes, let alone fight off the Chinese or anyone else who also wants these energy sources.

Third, we have reached the national peak and are nearing the global peak of the most important of these alternative hydrocarbons, natural gas. Natural gas is the only thing that is feeding our swollen population, in the form of fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, etc. When peak oil no longer allows us to cheaply import natural gas products, enormous tracts of land will be rendered unproductive. The combines that are keeping our lower portions pleasingly plump, as Carlos says, will have nothing left to do. This, I think, will be the last straw. Americans may tolerate not being able to buy the latest cheap plastic stuff from Tiwan. They may even tolerate losing their cars and living in reasonable social arrangements. But they will not tolerate going hungry, any more than humans ever have.

Climate change and environmental degradation are indeed important issues, but it is my opinion that we will be forced to come face to face with them by the peak oil situation sooner rather than later.

I also think that it is important to discuss the timing of this collapse, because we need to determine how much play we have to make arrangements for the future. I say that we should act quickly, because we don't have much time at all. I doubt that there is much we can do at this late date to mitigate our future problems, but what we can do, we should do now.

We must show up at the planning committee meetings Mr. Kunstler speaks of, and make our concerns known. We must learn how to fix our own pipes, wiring, roofs, etc. We must get windmills in our back yards, or solar panels on our roofs. We must plant trees that will be needed in the future. We must stop going to McWalmarts, and try to shore up community business instead. We must get rid of our suburban lawns and replace them with something more useful. We must inform our friends and relatives of the coming problems, and hope they don't have us committed. (It's hard work being a Cassandra, after all.) There are many other "musts" I can think of.

The point is this; our society may be on a path of self destruction, but the people who read and post on this blog are not, and we must be ready to pick up the pieces and carry on if and when the worst befalls us.

[dimbulb]

Let me put in a good word for modernism. It's not all about towering hubris. 'Less is more' is probably a more useful idea now than ever. True, the ghastly tropes of high modernism which preoccupy the NYT are laughably elitist and occasionally surpass self-parody. On the other hand some Europeans practice democratic modernism which is much more responsive to social and environmental needs and which Americans can learn a hell of a lot from.

And surely even the worst modernist sterility is to be preferred to any McMansion?

[aj]

I agree, the idea of the house being a "machine for living" is not bad in and of itself: it's just that in the rush towards a Year Zero reboot of the field, so much knowledge was lost about using natural energy flows for heating, cooling, ventilation, etc.

Given that there won't be so much "manufacturing" anymore, maybe 100 years from now we will grow our houses, slowly, out of genetically engineered banyan trees, and live in designed-in hollow spaces, like gall wasps in a tree branch.

In the meantime, we would do well to transform the idea of the "machine for living" into "house as living cell" - it grows, changes, takes in nutrients, flushes out wastes, and if you don't take care of it -- if you don't surround it with sustainable patterns a la Christophe Alexander -- it dies, or it replicates uncontrollably. House as living cell, neighborhood as organ, public transport as circulatory system...

[kd]

Good points about Modernism, Dimbulb.

Some Modernist ideas have been personally important to me: Less is more, form follows function, & the idea, most clearly expressed by Modenist poets, that our thinking be inclusive rather than exclusive--that we can look in all directions for ideas, draw from all history & cultures (indeed, it was the Modernist poets & artists who recognized the timelessness of "ancient" art).

But when the Modernist ideal of "make it new" was embraced by government, industry & big capital, we moved toward the skyscraper, faster & cheaper construction, increased automation, worship of science & change, etc.

[BD]

jy says we need to put solar panels on our houses, windmills etc...

to me- the scramble for alternatives shows a desire to maintain a certain level of comfort...

can't we just give it up? do we need a hot water heater? or a fridge for that matter? washer and dryer? electric stove? what about lights? or a TV? what do you need solar for? pumping water? why not get a hand pump?

i agree we should learn those skills that will enable us to survive in the future... cold storage for food, saving meat, growing food etc....

but the idea that putting up solar panels makes you better prepared than the next guy is a dangerous trap... what happens when they malfunction? i guess you could always learn how to repair them... but why not just give up that luxury? and learn to live like people did prior to all this luxury? talk to your elders-- see what they did... there are people here who have no electricity-- and they have no solar either... who cook and heat with wood... they are people we should be learning from...

i mean no offense to you jy... but i am betting that things will erode so much in this country that hot water heaters and refrigerators and washers and dryers will not be a high priority to maintain.... i think we would all be better served at ditching the luxuries.....

[jy]

BD,

You are right that we will have to ditch the luxuries, and as much as I will miss my dryer, I am ready and willing to give it up. What I am not willing to give up, and what I think wind and solar can help us keep, is; the communication of important information over radio, cell phones, and the internet; modern medicine and perhaps dentistry: the storage of food in freezers; Heating and cooking without the use of wood, which should be preserved as a bulwark against environmental degradation: perhaps some light industry. I must emphasize that wind and solar will probably not be feasable at a grand scale, but on an individual scale, I think they will be necessary to maintain the best parts of our civilization. As for the wisdom of our elders who did not have the benefits of modernity--if we can avoid sliding back into a life as nasty, brutish, and short as theirs was, I am willing to fix my solar panels and my windmills ad infinitum.

On a plane trip recently, I met a gentleman who is right now living completely off the grid, with the benefit of windmills, solar panels. a composting toilet, and a back yard garden. He was not a survivalist, or a paranoid, but simply a person who was living a sustainable life with the perks of modern knowledge. There are many people like him and his family--I think this is the wisdom we should seek out if we want a future that will not drive us batty.

[Dave]

One duty is to begin throwing ourselves from the speeding mass of modernism and risk what comes afterwards. That is why I say to people who ask me what to do that "I don't know ?" Oh yes I can register the standard bromides about gardening, solar power, living in cities and blah blah blah. But that still leaves the speeding mass charging by with you on the side feeling virtuous though your impotent in the face of the collapse you will be destroyed by anyway.What is needed is courage not the illusion of escape that the usual bromides provide but courage to cast your body beneath the spinning wheels knowing it means disaster for onesperson in every way including your death. It still is probably futile but at least your not deluded into thinking your safe with your living off the grid and your organic veggies. That is another form of modernism and narcissism as much what the NYT engaged in last Sunday. To be prepared to die in service to stopping the doomsday machine from completing its journey. That is what is needed. I'm not that brave so I refrain from giving ridulously shallow advice about "lifestyle changes"

What I am brave enough to do is lobby, and organize in service to a publicresponse to the crisis at hand before city councils, school boards etc. As far personal preparation I'd rather be in the soup with my friends, family and neighbors.

[One Eye Open]

I don't think I quite get the doomsday angle of our declinning energy situation. We are talking about running out (over a period of time) of a resource that is currently used primarily for transportation. When one analizes how this energy is used you come to the conclusion that much of it is nothing more than waste. By that I mean that when you add up all the stupid trips to get a gallon of milk or the kids taking a car to school when they could ride a bus that has already been paid for, I call that wasted transportation energy.

As the cost of transportation energy rises the waste factor will decline. People will think twice before they climb behind the wheel. When asked "paper or plastic?", people will begin to say, "Neither", as they unfold the cloth sacks that they brought with them to the market.

This doesn't preclude the end of manufacturing. Gas hog manufacturing will be replaced by bicycle manufacturing. We'll eat lower on the food chain. We'll have meat or fish or poultry every other day or every three days instead of two or three times every day. Our houses will get smaller, more efficient. Think about how much of a homes space currently goes to storing junk? Less junk means less space.

How will we feed 20 billion you may ask? There isn't going to be twenty billion. Once people catch on they will go from having two kids to having one. If everyone stopped procreating tomorrow you would go to zero population in about 100 years. If the currrent six billion people married and had one kid we'd be back to 3 billion in a short time (relatively speaking). If that practice continued you'd be at 1 1/2 billion in a few generations.

People will still need and produce things.
Those things will have value and that value will be purchased with another type of good or service of equally perceived value. Trade will continue. How we get from point "a" to "b" and what we ultimately collect in the way of valued "utils" won't disappear they will merely change. There will be adjustment and governments will exascerbate the hardship of that adjustment as they refuse to address the issues until push comes to shove. But that is merely the history of the human race. Nothing more and nothing less.

[BD]

jy-

who will you be communicating with? there are radios that run only on solar energy-- and there are others that run on a hand crank... will there really be broadcasts? even without $$ incentive? listenership? you think people will be listening to radio for enjoyment when TSHTF? rather than figuring out how to survive?

cell phones?

i guess maybe you are quite a bit more optimistic than i am about our coming future... even if cell phones remain-- why the hell would you want one? ;)

storage of food? again-- freezers are a modern convenience... in a local ag economy get fresh food daily or every other day... grow it yourself... and store for winter-- cold cellar storage is not a new idea... there are several books on the subject... kill a deer and smoke it...

the idea that wood will deplete... probably will in a lot of places--- but the initial hit of what is ahead- wood is the way to go... locate to a place that has wood and not a lot of people...

again--- it is high time for us all to start trying to live without... and to start preparing for what is coming...

[jy]

Dave,

Before you start accusing others of being ridiculously shallow, you should learn some basic grammar and spelling. That aside, the "lifestyle changes" you scoff at are not easy, they do not make me feel safe and virtuous. They are simply necessary, and we should start to adopt them now while we can still do it in an orderly fashion, before we are forced to do it later in the middle of chaos. I am not a survivalist. I have no intention of escaping from society. In fact, I think that the best way I can help society is to adopt attitudes and behaviors that will aid my family, friends, and neighbors in making this difficult transition. That includes eating organic veggies, I'm afraid. It does not include dramatic, narcissistic self-immolation of the kind you seem to think is so admirable. I hope you do lobby and organize against the coming troubles, and I hope you do it with a modicum of tact, politenes, and practicality.

[PhilipW]

The name "clusterfuck nation" still contains within it the seed of the problem. The clusterfuck we are in is global in nature, not national. Almost all of the intractable issues we angst about can only be solved by global governance. There, I've said it. Those impolite words "world government". Go on, compose in your minds lots of emotional rants to post about the evils of this idea. But you cannot evade reality. The nations of this world have not for a century now been independent sovereign entitities.

Just on the oil issue alone this truth is crystal clear. As long as oil could be harvested cheaply from the "commons" as it were, then addressing issue of governing it's supply and distribution could be postponed. The day when demand exceeds supply is the same day that we either turn to global governance to regulate the industry, or we destroy 90% of life on this planet in a series of wars. This is the iron-clad logic of all human history, intensive exploitation of any resource leads either to war, or to regulation.

Looking outside of the oil problem we can list a dozen other fucks heading our way, water, CO2, biodiversity, diease...etc, and not one of them is faintly within the orbit the American government to solve in isolation from the rest of the world. So what are you gonna do about it?

Here is what is most likely to happen. Everyone loaths the idea of world government, so that will not happen. Therefore we will fight. Wars and devastation that will make the last century look like tea-parties will take out most of us. Just as long as the vital need for global unity is resisted. Why do we shun the only solution? For one reason: as a race we have no one set of values and standards we can all subscibe to. Lacking such we cannot as nations even begin to agree on how to operate a global government, nor most crucially how to engage all the people's of the earth in it's democratic machineries. We hate world government simply because we do not believe we have any means to participate in it.

Lacking global governance, we cannot solve global challenges effectively. It is as simple as that. Thinking otherwise invokes the kind of magical thinking that believes a town, a city or a nation can function on pure human good will alone with no civic bodies or authorities to actually decide upon and implement the details. This is core of the question.

The problem IS NOT technical; it is social. Without underestimating the technical challenge, it is perfectly obvious that if as a species we wanted to, we could resolve almost all of the big issues within a decade or two. The reason why we cannot is that we have no means of agreeing on what our values and priorities are, thus determine what the problems are, what to do about them, and how to implement any solutions in an equitable manner.

The individual and the society they live in are mutually interdependent. Neither thrives upon the oppresiion or dysfunction of the other. But the crucial failure afflicting most of humanity is that we have yet to recognise that we are now living in a global society, and that society, viewed as a whole is suffering. The current order of the world is lamenatably defective, and yet we are all intrinsic memebers of it and cannot escape the realities of it's dysfunction.

The survivalists make futile bids to insulate themselve from this reality. The dumb masses in the burbs pretend the power isn't going to be cut off if they don't pay the bill. Bloggers like us bleat at each other on our keyboards in diseptic exchanges, dimly aware that our disunity renders us essentially powerless to make any difference. I don't know what to say that could change the stark choice we face. But as a race we either submit to a common weal, a common faith and commitment to our future, or we learn the same lessson the very hard way.

[jy]

BD,

Radio and cell phones will not continue to exist for pleasure, rather they will be crucial aids in helping others survive and adjust in an unstable world. Knowing where trouble is, knowing where food is, knowing what people are doing around you will be very important, as they always have been. Freezing will be an important method of storing fresh food in large quantities for those of us who live in cold climates. Moving to places with lots of trees and few people is not a good option, because all such places are nearly impossible to grow food in--The Rockies, the far north, etc. Besides, we really ought to stay where we are and help our communities adapt. We must let go of luxuries, true, but we must keep the best parts of our civilization intact at the same time.

[scotty]

"there are people here who have no electricity-- and they have no solar either... who cook and heat with wood... they are people we should be learning from..."

sounds like a quick plan for deforestation.

[carlostheobscure]

America is deaf to J.K.'s Jeremiah's, but here's hoping that the listening starts soon and they don't come to shoot the messenger when TSHF. Our cable channels and the internet are saturated in porn, this is the lense through most commoners in the chaste world of OBL see us, yet we don't have a clue as to why those crazy people refer to America as the Great Satan.

We are a wicked people. As to whether we deserve to be punished, only heaven knows.

iy blows up my argument for an orderly, free market energy plateau as the turn is made to lesser hydro-carbons, like our old good friend coal.

However, one can easily imagine the corporatist state under war-time conditions using "civilian production boards" requisitioning the diesel towards agriculture, food processing and heavy industry, their own Montana ranches and other priority uses. Under this scenario, most of the civilian consumer economy blows off one way or the other, but it doesn't mean the industrial experiment is over.

IMO, there's too much power and national prestige to give up that easily on it, and I think a draconian and authoritarian response (in other words, an American fascism) is a likely outcome to the current predicament. I do put much more faith and stock in the future ability of centralized power and the elites that benefit from it to organize and plan large-scale enterprise than J.K allows.

[jy]

One Eye,

I think you seriously underestimate the political, social, and economic trauma the end of cheap oil will cause. Read "The Long Emergency" to get an idea of the size and complexity of the problem. There may be violence, there will certainly be extreme hardship for many people, and it will come soon. I think you also underestimate the capacity of our fellow human beings for selfishness and self-delusion. We will certainly try to maintain our current lifestyle even past the point of practicality, and that includes having too many children. Limiting the birth rate is blatantly necessary in many parts of the world right now, and it has not happened. War, starvation, and disease will probably limit population growth long before the civilized response you hope for will occur.

[jy]

Carlos,

Thanks for the nod. You are probably right about the neo-fascist scenario, at least for a period. Here's hoping civilized people can weather the storm until authoritarian government becomes too expensive to maintain.

aj,

Have you read "Ecotopia" by Ernest Callenbach? It's extremely 70's, but interesting nonetheless. It discusses many of the issues you raise, in novel form.

[Robin the Hood]

Speaking of doom and gloom, did anyone read the piece in the European press over the weekend about a significant slowdown in the gulf stream, and the possibility of Europe literally freezing in years and decades to come?

http://edition.cnn.com/2005/TECH/science/05/10/gulfstream/

PS Yes this is the scenario laid out in "the Day after Tomorrow".

[One Eye Open]

ty
Don't underestimate people's need to be a part of a greater good. For a variety of reasons many people in this country have not felt the same ties to a community as their predecessors have. Consequently, they have been set adrift and have tried to replace a purpose filled life with nothing more than diversions. Once the diversions begin to evaporate and they find they must now interact with their neighbors to overcome whatever obstacles must be overcome, many will rise to the occasion.

Certainly there will shirkers and stragglers and those that take rather than give but, historically speaking, these types have tended to be the exception rather than the rule.

[jy]

One Eye,

Historically speaking? What history books have you been reading? Mine are filled with examples of delusion, cruelty, and destruction, intermitently sprinkled with some nice art. Humans do have an impulse toward the greater good, it's true, but it is mostly trumped by sheer selfishness and ingnorance. When our oil fueled entertainments dry up, I expect people to be extremely put out, not purpose filled.

[Eligere]

"Both represent a kind of wickedness that does not require religious transliteration to understand. Both will be defeated by reality."

Amen; and the sooner, the better. I'm not sure how much more of this my poor old city can take.

[Leila]

Love Mr. Kunstler's acerbic rant. Must protest on behalf of California, however. You wrote:

"In places like Florida (and California, and northern Virginia, and Las Vegas, and Dallas), all citizens are complicit in the drive toward tragedy because all want business-as-usual to continue. "

Gosh, where I live in California, the Mayor hired a director of Sustainability who wrote a 100 year plan to make our city of 340,000 people energy-self-sufficient within a century. Walk down the street in my neighborhood and behold the solar panels atop the hardware store (thanks to the 100 year plan); take the bus up the hill to the community college whose ag department has been running permaculture classes for decades; they keep a "green" model house on the property, too. Wander around the hills and meet the fellow building a house from rammed earth. Ride the bus to work with my husband, who commutes 120 miles a week without ever turning over his car engine. Go to town council meetings where the locals are fighting Walmart and working on plans to calm traffic. Go to my local BART station, which has sprouted a brand new "transit village", a gorgeous complex of shops, library, medical clinic and housing, right next to the elevated train line and the bus depot.

No, we're not perfect here in Northern California, but there are many, many intelligent people here working for a sustainable future.

I'm most proud of my brother, a water quality expert, who is working on the project to daylight the Los Angeles river, bring it into compliance with the clean water act, and not incidentally reclaim some of the rain that washes out to sea every wet season. He's not going to fix L.A.'s environmental problems with this project, but it's a massive effort to redress the wounds to the Los Angeles river basin wrought by humanity.

I, too, am very concerned about our future, and often am more pessimistic than optimistic, but it's not fair to say that all the citizens of California want business as usual.

And yes, do read Callenbach's Ecotopia. While you're at it, read Starhawk's Earth Path. You may sneer at her pagan rituals but the woman is a very effective eco-activist and also practices permaculture in both the city (SF) and the country. Callenbach and Starhawk are only two among legions of activists, writers, gardeners and ecologists living and working all over California (and the West Coast). We know we have to change oru ways. Many of us are actually living the change we want to see.

[Devil's Advocate]

One Eye :

On a good day I feel your optimism about humanity's innate need to work together and do good and quit having too many babies. Then I open my eyes and look around. Sometimes I even do a lot of research on population demographics, when I really want to bring on an anxiety attack.

The only people on this planet who are conciously practicing "Zero Population Growth" are White leftists and the slaves of Communist dictatorships. Ironically, our very discoveries in the fields of nutrition
and science have caused a great deal of the Third World's overpopulation-wrought miseries.

Back here in America, visit any blighted hillbilly trailer camp or black ghetto. They aren't hard to find, and they are usually next door to one another, if not in the same very area, and they take up gigantic swaths of our McNation. Head up to the local McFoodMart and watch one fat 24 year old single mother of three children by three seperate fathers after another pay for her family's junk food with other people's money. Listen to the media sound byte conversations of people with double-digit IQs and 500 word working vocabularies.

Turn on the non-stop 24/7 neo-conservative brainwash feed on talk radio. Listen to the talking heads gasp in horror at the mere idea of providing contraceptive education and contraceptives to the ever poorer and more ignorant teenagers who are about to repeat the cycle.

I wish I could share your naivite and optimism, I really do...

[BD]

jy

did you read JK new book..?