In the Background

Tuesday, September 6, 2005,
     We've entered the blame-o-rama phase of Hurricane Katrina. I actually heard Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff sparring with NPR's Robert Siegal on the air last Thursday, and a more weasily performance than Chertoff's would be hard to find in any bureaucratic circle of hell. FEMA chief Michael Brown gave new dimension to the word "clusterfuck" by blocking private charity shipments of food and water into New Orleans and making the armed forces "work around" his agency in order to get anything done. And it was revealed yesterday that a navy hospital ship idled with empty beds off the Louisiana coast without orders while old people died slow deaths on the sidewalks outside the Convention Center.

    There has already been one proposal for rebuilding the city, from Daniel Libeskind, whose proposal for turning the World Trade Center site into the set for a German expressionist horror movie won the hearts and minds of the architectural mandarins in New York. Libeskind said that New Orleans should adopt a jazz theme. Wow! Maybe they should think about serving Creole food to go with it.

     The actual tendency in practice, is to build back pretty much what was there before, because the insurance companies demand it. If a strip mall was washed away, then the insurer will only finance the rebuilding of a strip mall. This is most unfortunate, particularly for those places further east of New Orleans along the Gulf Coast, and a hundred miles inland, because they were composed primarily of suburban sprawl. If they rebuild along that template, they will do so in the face of strong signals from reality that the age of Easy Motoring is over. The romance of the car may be too great to overcome in Dixie.

      We have as yet no word how the cluster of downtown skyscrapers in New Orleans proper fared, but there is a good chance that some of them will not survive the damage to their foundations. It would be a shame to rebuild priapic towers in a new era when the urban norm probably should not exceed seven stories (the walkable limit for buildings with stairs). All our big cities will be contracting in the years ahead, as the electric grid becomes less reliable, and the demographic trend of the past two hundred years reverses, with populations shifting back to small towns and agricultural regions. It was interesting to see, finally, that the driest place in New Orleans was the French Quarter, the original settlement.

      The poor neighborhoods were composed largely of shotgun shacks, little post-war brick bunkers, and government-built housing projects. Virtually all of them appear to be ruined. I'd guess that few were insured, and the insurers will probably try to label it "flood damage," which generally exempts them from paying out. The population that inhabited them is now dispersed, and some of those who feel that they lost everything may not return. These neighborhoods will be blank slates. But they will also remain low-lying in relation to a coastline that is losing its wetland buffers against an ocean that is seeing a cycle of more violent storms, probably due to global warming. Anything new built in these wards will not be insurable.

     Meanwhile momentous things are swirling in the background. The price of gasoline may retreat sometime in two to six weeks, but I doubt it will fall below the $2.50 range again. In fact, having gone way above the psychological barrier of $3.00, the gasoline retailers may resist falling below that. There have been no new oil refineries built in the US since the late 1970s. There will be no new ones built now, despite the crunch on refined "product." Why? Because the oil companies understand that they are in a twilight industry and refineries represent huge investments in future activity, which the corporations correctly perceive will be shrinking as global oil production passes peak.

     The biggest shock to the public lies a couple of months ahead when the cost of natural gas for home heating (50 percent of the dwellings in America) combines with stubbornly higher pump prices to whap them upside the head. Natural gas at around $12.00 is now many times what it cost as recently as 2003 ($3.00). A lot of Americans will be shivering this winter and some of the weak, old, and poor will die as a result.

     President Bush has already taken a hit on his appointees' Chinese Fire Drill response to disaster management. But the toll from the energy problems the whole nation faces will be more insidious. Strapped for cash from filling their gas tanks, unable to buy Christmas presents at WalMart, and huddled around space heaters, the public will be wondering why they were so poorly prepared.

Comments

[kd]

What would you like to hear about the Trans-Alaska Pipeline, Richard?

I worked on it back in the summer of '76. My late uncle was an engineer living in Fairbanks. He got me the job. I was part of a crew that was uncovering buried pipe so that another crew could come along & x-ray welds that were "badly" x-rayed the first time around. After uncovering a weld, we would wait for several days (that means sit around reading skin magazines, playing cards, telling jokes & stories, slapping mosquitoes) for a "guvment" inspector to come & check for environmental damage. Then the x-ray crew would do their thing, & we'd move on to the next weld. I spent most of my time digging away &/or jack hammering perma-frost from around the welds, then sitting in the bus or on a rock reading, listening, watching for animals.
I saw fox, wolves, caribou, moose, & bears. The mountain & tundra landscape--"Land of the Midnight Sun"--was beautiful & strange. After work we were bused (yellow school buses) back to the camp. On the surface the camps provided decent food, movies, a workout room, & canteen. Two guys to a room. No alcohol was allowed. But there was underground life of whores, drugs, booze, & gambling. I kept to myself, reading, writing, sleeping, & sometimes sneaking off (unauthorized) on foot into the tundra, walking for hours in the late night twilight. The deepest silence I'd ever experienced.

That's it in a nutshell. At the end of a summer of working (seven days a week) & saving, I cashed my last paycheck & bought a ticket out.

I was pretty young. Met all kinds of people. Young engineers whom the men sometimes resented. Native Americans, always quiet, apart. Men from the deep south--drunks, family men, ex-cons, many illiterate. Skilled construction career men--some with the seriousness of craftsmen. Bigots, racists. Women at the camps who were hooking on the side--some to pay for college, some to save for a house, some to support kids back home. Seasoned "pipeliners"--good old boys , casual enough guys, always white, & behind the back sly jokes about "niggers, spics, injuns", you name it. A few ex-hippies, burn out cases. Guys like me who kept to themselves. There was always some talk about wasted money, poor decisions, & doubts about the "whole funking thing." Guys sneaking off to fish, wishing they could hunt.

Sorry to get long-winded. I could go on & on.

What do you want to know about it?

[father guido]

"It's all about supply and demand."

and what will demand do in three to six as winter sets in on murica? still see the price of the most addictive substance in history set to decline? feh.

[Richard Bennett]

It goes up, it comes down. Always has, always will. The long-term trend is up, but as soon as hydrogen is fully on-line, you won't be able to give the stuff away. Prophets of doom have always been with us, and seldom right.

Never underestimate the brain.

[Richard Bennett]

What do you want to know about it?

You guys didn't kill Rudolph, did you? So why do so many hippies think ANWR drilling will do him in?

[Riggsveda]

I was having the same doleful thoughts about our future prospects myself, Jim.

As for the price of gas, the week before Katrina hit it was going for about $2.40 a gallon in Philly. Three days after, it shot up to $3.60, and shows no sign of retreating yet. I don't hope to see it go below $3.00---if it does, I won't hold my breath that it will stay there. And the cost of produce went through the roof along with it. Soon it will be everything else. When the heating crunch hits, Bush's genocidal CEO government will have come pretty much full circle, and the racist free marketeers at Jane Galt's site can bloviate ad nauseum about how the frozen dead just asked for it.

[MGR]

All that is left is Beethoven.

Now Playing - Opus 27 No. 2, 3rd moevment.

[kd]

Richard,

What did you really want to know about my job on the Trans-Alaska Pipeline? Was it just conversation?

Hippies, Rudolph--what's your point?

[kd]

http://www.opendemocracy.net/democracy-protest/aftermath_2807.jsp

[kd]

A BEAUTIFUL MIND
________________

And so
many
of
the
people
in the
arena
here,
you know,
were
underprivileged
anyway
so this
(she
chuckled)--
this is
working
very well
for
them.

-Barbara Bush,
Houston

[spam]

Hey kd,

I think Richard Bennet's point is that he is a conservative. He undoubtedly believes that man does not have the ability to affect the environment in a negative manner, and if we did then it is our GOD-given right to do so... After all the bible says that man should subdue the earth and its critters.

I would also imagine that he hopes that armageddon happens soon so that he and his chosen people can be with Jesus and watch the "tree-huggin' liberal pussies" burn in hell.

Am I wrong?

[spam]

I should point out that I am an environmentalist and democrat.

[kd]

Spam,

Richard's an old friend of mine.
We shared a lot of experiences together, good & bad.

He's widely read & traveled.
I think he would characterize himself a free thinker.
I daresay he's a "true believer" when it comes to laissez-faire capitalism--but I'll let him speak for himself if he wants to.

Anyway, religious he ain't!

[One Eye Open]

I've heard the Barbara Bush statement paraphrased but not read or heard the actual quote yet. If she actually said what has been attributed to her than it would seem she is an incredibly insentitive person. But proponents of government fixes should have absolutely no problem with her statement. These are the very same people that have proposed program after program that is supposed to bring parity to those that the system has held back.

How did many of these wards ot the state react to Katrina? They waited like deer in the headlights for "the Man" to come help them. Well the "Man" was busy keeping his own but dry and once he and his were safe he did come back. Self preservation says take care of yourself first. Then you look around and help who you can. Hell even the airlines tell you to put your own oxygen mask on before attempting to help children or others.

[kd]

One Eye,

For a moment I thought you were being polite by refering to Mrs Bush's statement as merely "insensitive". (In an increasingly uncivil society, I've grown to appreciate civil discourse. But I appreciate straight-shooters too. Plain talk like "George Bush doesn't like black people.")

But after reading the rest of your post, I realise you basically see things the way she (& presumably her son) does.

Finally, a racist tone comes through in your post. Oh yeah..."the Man"...good old Negro talk. And then you end by comparing the poor--who are primarily black--to children.

[Richard Bennett]

I'm an atheist and a capitalist, spam.

I don't know anybody who believes in "laissez-faire" capitalism, and I certainly don't. Corporations have an obligation to shareholders to maximize profits, so it's irresponsible of them to cut profits to protect the environment. But I like clean food, water, and air, so I'm down with sensible government regulations on pollution.

I've traveled enough to see that market economies outperform command economies, even for the poor and the downtrodden, so I'm not into that pinko shit where the government tells each widget factory how many widgets to make. Capitalism is the greatest force for social progress ever invented. It's not perfect, but it's head and shoulders better than the alternatives.

I love DDT - it's the best way to stop the spread of malaria ever, and I totally love bio-engineered food, because it's the only way to feed the planet's poor.

But more than that I love electricity. It's natural, it can be made by a huge variety of means, and it lights up my life.

Electricity rules, dude.

[Richard Bennett]

Oh, yeah, one more thing: money is good. I'd rather have some than none, and more is better. Money is the way our peers value our contribution to their world, and it's completely objective.

Money does not judge, it simply is.

[Weaseldog]

It's been common knowledge for decades that once oiul goes over $20/barrel, we'll be awash by alternatives. Really, wait and see. I've been hearing that since the 1970s.

Yes, hydrogen. There's lot's on Jupiter. Let's build a pipeline. Or, we could consume 10 times as much natural gas to make the stuff. Or 10 times as much coal or uranium or... How about we use those energy sources in their native forms so we don't waste energy doing the conversions?

Who cares how much gasoline costs. It will increase in price until enough people lose their jobs and quit buying it, then the price will come down. Then it will increase in price until enough people lose their jobs and quit buying it, then the price will come down.

But the long term trend is less of the stuff to go around every year.

[Cryptic Ned]

In fact, having gone way above the psychological barrier of $3.00, the gasoline retailers may resist falling below that.

I question this. The gas stations have been struggling since the prices shot up, because when people have to pay more for gas they are much less likely to buy a magazine or a drink or a snack at the convenience store, which is the source of most of the gas stations' profits.

[Weaseldog]

There's nothing about economics or money that is completely objective. It does have an internal self referencing rules set. And the math goes with it, often leads to divide by zero errors, when applied against real world events.

Economics and thus markets, have zero predictive power. Economics is used to explain in hindsight and markets are used to spread dogma for control of the population.

In this manner, it bears a lot of similarity to religion, where prophecies are used to make a wide array of false predictions, and the mask of religion is overlaid over the past to make sense of it. It isn't objective, and economics, markets, etc..., isn't objective either. No self referencing world view can be.

Economics are simply the old superstitions of the ancient astrologers and alchemists, repackaged with the veneer of complex, self referencing mathematics replacing the reading of entrails, bones and the paths of falling stars.

If you know that the world's rules are all based off physical laws that are testable and understandable, and then use the basics of economics to understand how we distort our view of the world through money, you can actually make some sense of it all. But once you do so, the myth that economics, markets, or the worship of Mammon is an objective practice is completely lost.

[Richard Bennett]

"There's nothing about economics or money that is completely objective."

"...worship of Mammon..."

I'd like to give you some money, Weaseldog, at no obligation to you. Would you prefer a ten dollar bill or a twenty?

Let's see how "objective" you are.

[Riggsveda]

Richard, there's nothing objective about money as a criterion for one's "contribution to the world". Imbeciles and mass murderers can amass great gobs of it, often even more easily than good or intelligent people. Those who make the most are often the ones who create the least. If money was the objective criterion of worth, those who save lives, create art, ease suffering, or clean up guest puke in a hotel would be millionaires, instead of being among the worst-paid. Money is a weathervane of one's ability to scam, to schmooze, and to play the odds. Some people have the talent, like some can draw, but there's nothing innately good about it, and it never automatically translates into the greater good. If it did, with all the money floating around this world, don't you think we'd have seen the end of children dying of starvation? And don't delude yourself into thinking money gravitates to those who deserve it and escapes those who fail to earn it. Life itself is a big fat crap shoot, and any one of us is only an unforeseen disaster away from losing everything and never being able to climb back out of that pit.

[kd]

"Money is good."

Of course it depends on what you mean by "good".

Then it depends on what you mean by "contribution".

Sure "money is objective".
So is a rock.

But what money means, how it is used, what it stands for, who has it & who doesn't & the reasons for that, how it is gained, how it is lost: all these are highly subjective (& have been the subject of debate for centuries), in the sense that they pertain to the human heart/mind.

Money does not exist without human beings. In that sense it is not objective. Yet through money, men judge. And men do not always judge fairly or correctly.

As for "laissez-faire" capitalism, I'll take you at your word when you say you don't believe in it. But I imagine there are numerous CEOs, &/or aspiring CEOs & industrialists who basically are laissez-faire capitalists at heart.

[Dave]

One area that JHK's prognostications seem right on is the idea that there will be no dictatorship or totalitarianism as a response to PO. These guys are Keystone Cops without the comedy. When the shitstorm begins in earnest ( which I'm thinking will begin this winter and be here in full force by next years winter heating season led by the NG depletion) the powers of the centralized goverment will be seen as the fraud it really is. All their really good at is bombing poor nations, occupying nations for oil, corrupting goverments and the mail service which isn't too bad in my view. As far as their abilty to guide us out of the PO wilderness forget about it. But then again they won't running death camps and employing SS style storm troopers either. So in way the incompetency on display in the Gulf region has good aspect as well.
How does the blog feel about separtism ? LIke maybe this is the opportune moment to bring up the idea of regional secession in many areas. I for one am in favor of breaking up the empire the sooner the better for us all.

[Sarah]

"I think he would characterize himself a free thinker."

Yeah, Richard's a real class act, endorsing the notion that the CIA kill Ray Nagin and Kathleen Blanco:
http://bennett.com/blog/index.php/archives/2005/09/04/fema-plan-to-restore-order-to-nola/

I'm sure he'd be welcome at stormfront.org.

[Weaseldog]

Just because people have assigned and imagninary value for dollar bills, in no way implies that it contains come lesson of objectivity.

Keep the money and use it to invest in a tangible, physical object that can be used to make yourself a little more self sufficient, as energy supplies become unreliable.