Rocks in Our Heads

September 12, 2005,
     The impediments to clear collective thinking about the problems we face were not washed away by Hurricane Katrina -- and may still be there after Hurricane Ophelia romps up the Atlantic coast later this week.

     One Big Thought making the rounds of the editorial pages is that "fuel efficiency" will be the cure-all for our energy predicament -- that if everybody could trade in his Ford Explorer for a Toyota Prius, life in the USA would just purr happily forward. This has been the position of the more metaphysical branches of the enviro sector, as personified by the Rocky Mountain Institute and its preposterous "hyper-car" project.

     The truth is that it does not really matter whether the freeways are crammed full of SUVs or nimble hybrid cars. The problem is car-dependency and the infrastructure for daily living predicated on it, not the kind of vehicles we run. I have yet to hear one US senator of either party propose that part of the recent $300 billion highway bill ought to be redirected to rebuilding America's passenger rail system -- even after the bitter lesson of Katrina, which demonstrated that people who don't own cars can't get out of harm's way in this country.

     Another Big Thought still clogging the collective imagination is the idea that if only we switch to "alternative fuels" we can run the interstate highway system, Disney World, and WalMart just like before. The country is full of people now who want gold stars for running their household car fleet on discarded Fry-Max oil from the local Dunkin Donuts. . . or on oil squeezed from hemp seeds. Notice that the premise of a drive-in society remains.

     Now the scary part of this is that these ideas are coming generally from the smarter people in our society. The dumb ones are are praying for the Rapture, or waiting for the market to magically fix everything, or sitting around the suburbs of Houston oiling their riot guns in front of the Nascar telecast.

      In the background, the US is chugging straight into the Christmas 2005 clusterfuck, which will consist of large numbers of citizens finding themselves financially crushed by the cost of heating their houses combined with the persistent high cost of fueling their cars for all the chores of daily life. More people may die in Chicago as a result of high heating costs this winter than were killed by Katrina on the Gulf Coast.

     In the economic sector, the delusion persists that the US Economy will be "unaffected" by the massive losses entailed by Katrina (as the New York Times put it last week). We don't need no steenkin' Mississippi Reever sheeping terminals or oil refineries. It is hard to imagine what species of gnostic theology this line of thinking is predicated on. Or how the economic press figures that price inflation of all ordinary household goods will not shoot up when truckers are paying twice as much this year to move frozen fried chickens from Arkansas to Philadelphia -- not to mention the fact that the disposable income previously allocated to Blue Light Special shopping in the chain stores is now being blown out the tailpipes of people struggling to pay for their fifty-mile commutes.

     The disruptions now underway will ramify whether further traumas occur this season or not -- more hurricanes, terrorist incidents, financial stumbles. People have been e-mailing me to ask if this is the beginning of The Long Emergency. I'm not a hundred percent sure myself, but you can see it from here.

Comments

[Sean Fay]

Jim, are you trying to say that we can't run our 200 million cars on restaurant grease? You must really hate 'Merica.

[Dave]

Great Post ! I'm seeing signs and symptoms of panic in my own small city with people obsessing about the coming winter and visible strain on the faces of many when the costs of energy are mentioned. The full blown panic has not started but by Christmas and the propect of the coming winter it will set in presenting first as the numerous govt/charity entities run out of funds and people literally start dying from cold weakened immune systems from hunger.
We need a new line of gnostic reasoning that incorporates ecology, addresses PO and GW allowing our collective gesturing hands to do something else hopeful. What do think of that ideas JHK ?

[dangerbird]

Hey Kuntsler
If "people who don't own cars can't get out of harm's way", then why would you or anybody want more people to become dependant on a "passenger rail system"?
Excuse the heck outta me, but I don't necessarily want to get on a train packed up with the whole population. Brings back bad memories doncha know.
If you have so much disdian for modernity in general, and American lifestyle in paricular, then might I suggest an alternative for your consideration. When our Mohammedan friends establish their caliphate, with it's attendant disdain for post-enlightenment modernity, you might happily join them in another century.
Oh, not the period of time that you want to step back into the time portal to. Which then is the desired peiod of time for which your atavistic heart pines?
Sorry Jim, you don't get to issue the decree that cancels the American lifestyle. You don't get the oppurtunity to overturn the apple cart. We're facing plenty of people who want to do that by fire and violence. Do you think we are gonna sit back and be guilt tripped into it by a bunch of atavists. No, the necessary adjustments will be made and things will carry on. Will there be upheaval. No doubt. But neither of us knows the time or the source of that upheaval. But you can bet that there will be plenty of us who won't wring our hands with glee everytime something happens.

[Andy R]

I'll repeat my part of my last post at the end of last week's blog - it's all a matter of timing.
From a practical standpoint, continuing the clusterfuck juggernaut is not a good idea in any case BUT - if technology actually does make possible the continuation of current arrangements, I'm betting that those arrangements will continue for longer than would otherwise be the case.

If however, we find ourselve "up a cul-de-sac in cement SUV without a fill-up" to paraphrase our host, then what Jim has been writing about and espousing for the past 10-15 years will come to pass - because (I know you hate to hear it) the MARKET will demand it.

Again, it's all a matter of timing
as to how the demand for getting goods and people from point A to point B will be met (even if part of that is the REDUCTION in that demand, which would be a good thing)

Point for discussion: When in history has a society actually been proactive about changing their living arrangements without a disastrous event or a changed reality to initiate the process?

PS - changed reality doesn't mean the train headed your way - it means the one that just ran you over...

[berford]

Hurricane or no hurricane I believe JHK or anyone speaking out on the folly of suburbia will remain a "voice crying in the wilderness". America will not heed these warnings. Katrina does not even help to make the case, because it is too easy to recognize refining capacity as the proximate cause of the nationwide gasoline price surge. When the reality of peak-oil, as opposed to a temporary supply interruption, strikes home America will keep stepping up our military response until the dollar fails catastrophically.
Afterall, most American's believe the fall of the Soviet Union marked the beginning of a free-market utopia. In truth we have merely proven a free-market economy is the most efficient way to strip the world of natural resources. We believe it is our victorious right to squander the spoils.
Keep "crying in the wilderness". But don't expect America to hear you.

[speedbird]

By the way, in the UK this morning the talk is of protests at high fuel prices, and blockades of roads and filling stations. The Chancellor, bless 'im, insists that supply must be increased. Other characters on the highly respected 'Today' show were talking quite seriously of rationing. You might see some strange things in the next week if you watch this space.

[dangerbird]

Crying in the wilderness? More like the chorus in the town square. Its not like Kuntsler is the only critic of suburbia. By the way, I'm not necessarily defending suburbia, but for G-d's sake, its been under attack since the end of WWll. A never ending chorus has prattled on about the "alienation", inter alia with a viscerality that they hesitate to apply to the terrorists. And yet it keeps chugging along.

[speedbird]

As this is an international site I should perhaps explain that the Chancellor is he who controls the purse strings of UK government. And also that absolutely nothing is going to happen until the outcome of the Ashes is settled ;-D

[Greg]

I'm not 100% sure if this is the start of the "long emergency," but they're already starting to steal diesel fuel from the rural farms in the California San Joaquin Valley as reported in the LA Times .... and that's at just $3.25 a gallon.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-rustle12sep12,0,5207254.story?coll=la-home-headlines

[kd]

Time will tell, of course.

But with the world's human population steadily increasing, "car-dependency" & an "infrastructure for daily living predicated on it" may appear less & less the best course for us to continue.

In addition to alternative energy sources/technologies, etc., why not look for alternative ways of life & alternative visions for the future?

[Andy R]

kd,

I'm with you, but my point is: based on history, as a society, we will do that only when we have to, but not before.

[kd]

http://www.carfree.com/papers/perry.html

http://www.vtpi.org/tdm/tdm68.htm

http://perc.ca/PEN/1991-10/richards.html

http://www.resurgence.org/resurgence/issues/roberts218.htm

[kd]

You're right, Andy.

[AJ Kandy]

It does look pretty dire. I will say that I think Jim is unnecessarily shooting down technologies that could help, because they aren't "perfect."

Of course there will be a vast downscaling, a necessity to return to a 100-mile diet and a reassessment of the priorities of our society. Things, as I've said before here, will probably look a lot more like Cuba (in the practical sense, not the political) does today when it's all through.

But there will be a place during and after the 'long emergency' for alternative fuels, biodiesel, solar, wind, tidal, bicycle generators, whatever! The energy will be used locally, probably at the source of production. Get used to windmills being as common as cellphone towers (if not integrated into them).

[Lisa]

..."I don't necessarily want to get on a train packed up with the whole population. Brings back bad memories doncha know. " says Dangerbird, and too many other simplistic dopes to reckon with over the past week. If i hear this one more time, or comparisons w/the Tsunami, I swear. It is along the lines, logistically, of suggesting one should never again take an elevator to an upper floor b/c it's too reminiscent of 9/11, or get on a boat bigger than a dinghy, cause it's too reminiscent of the Titanic. Trains won't happen again because people are stupid.

[vaara]

"the Christmas 2005 clusterfuck"

Which will turn into a February 2006 clusterorgy, when the American consumers rendered newly destitute by high fuel prices and/or the bursting of the housing bubble suddenly realize that they can't just declare Chapter 7 like they used to -- thanks to the bankruptcy reform bill that is due to take effect next month.

[substitute]

People do enjoy arguing about what type of personal private car to drive. They get all pissy when you point out that biodiesel uses slightly more oil than just burning gasoline, or that no number of people changing their car model will reduce the number of trucks we use to keep the entire country running. Math is hard.

[Weaseldog]

It's hard work. It's real hard work.

[mizuntitled]

Last I checked (admittedly years ago), power company (Peoples Energy) in CHGO won't shut anyone off in the winter if they can't pay their bills.

Starving them out once spring comes, however... 'nother story entirely...

[bud wiser]

Wow, JK used "ramify" - the verb.

I think the word - perfectly denotes the future scenarios that JK tries to illustrate with his weekly ranting.

It's a bit like the storied parable "For the want of a nail" the theme being - where untold misfortunes befall a kingdom because of the lack of attention to something as simple as a nail.

After seeing what a pathetic job this society did at addressing something as abberent and obvious as a hurricane - how could we possibly come to terms with a problem as insidious as "running low on gas".

When the national consciousness finally admits the "gauge is on 'E'" - there'll be finger pointing and blaming the likes this country has never seen.

"Why didn't you tell me -we were low on gas - God Damn-it, I'd a slowed down then......." said the public to the weasels in office....

[whateverbird]

Dangerbird,

You really come across as a dink.

The point about rail transportation is that there is none!

I don't think JHK is at all anti-American.

Then you throw in some totally irrelevant Islamic bullshit.

And then you come up with "Do you think we are gonna sit back and be guilt tripped into it by a bunch of atavists."

What the hell does that mean? How is JHK an atavist? You are an atavist, if you think that business as usual is still on the menu.

Oh, I forgot, the market will take care of it.

And you and your ilk constantly claiming that people trying to point out that we're headed for a cliff are happy about it!

You are a snarky know-nothing. "The necessary adjustments will be made". That's just a great approach. That's not rational, it's religious.

Actually, the necessary adjustments will be made, but you might be surprised at the form that adjustment takes.

[Reality Bites]

Half way through: "Twilight in the Desert", by Matthew Simmons.
The short version is Saudia Arabia has historically been a linch pin, ace in the well, to get us out of a sticky situation. Like revolution in Iran, that comes out of nowhere and shuts down oil production. Stuff that can happen at any time for any reason. Saudia Arabia probably can't cover our ass now. Even if everything goes along nicely, which it never does.

[Reality Bites]

I drove today, for the first time in over a month. I never drive, because I live in Tokyo. A car in Tokyo is a liablity. Japan has an excellent, cheap, reliable, delivery system, for the big stuff that you cannot take on the train. Tomorrow I board the Shinkansen bullet train to Nagoya. North America needs a great rail mass transit system. I cannot stress this enough. It is literally a life and death issue.

[Nicholas Paredes]

Dangerbird,

There have been suburbs for a long time. In Chicago, the older ones often followed rail lines, and for good reason. The housing stock also was much smaller even in the exclusive ones. My aunt's house was the home of a doctor and is quite small compared to the newly remodeled mega houses. Energy for very simple reasons is going to become more expensive. The market will dictate this, unless new energy is created. Any lapses in current energy supply will cause rationing so that important energy users can remain connected. This thesis can easily be argued and the solution prescribed is a reduction in energy usage--smaller homes, smaller communities with effective transportation systems. Even if there is no "emergency" it seems prudent to be conservative in use of resources.

The problem with these posts is that they propose a large problem that many do not believe exists. The real problem is that such issues cannot be discussed in this country, whereas most other countries admit to concerns. The recent comments in world papers regarding Katrina reflected their opinions that we are largely unaware of our effect on the world around us. We deserve what we get. As something of a religious person, this is essentially gluttony. We are a gluttonous energy user, and where there's gluttony, there's the possibility of "punishment." Not punishment from god, but from the natural reactions to such behavior.

[kd]

Opinions sure vary on the subject of trains.

http://www.faulkingtruth.com/Articles/GlobalWarning/1015.html

http://www.aiada.org/article.asp?id=17840

http://timblair.spleenville.com/archives/007009.php

http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/002197.html

http:/www.worldchanging.com/archives/002379.html