Calgary

October 3 2005
     I was way out in Calgary, Alberta, last week, the tar sands capital of western Canada. I was there to yak on camera for a CBC-sponsored documentary about suburbia, and the city itself proved to be a strange and interesting case of immersive delusional behavior.

     Calgary started out, of course, as the railhead for western ranching and a jump-off for various gold rushes in the late 19th century. Now it has become an archetypal city of immense glass boxes in a sterilized center surrounded by an asteroid belt of beige residential subdivisions -- sort of what Rochester, New York, would be like if it had an economy. The vast suburbs ooze out onto the prairie to the east, along with their complements of strip malls, power centers, car dealerships, and fry-pits, and on the west they bump up against the foothills of the Rockies.

     The real estate scene in Calgary is rip-roaring because newcomers are flooding in to work the tar sand angles. No doubt the tar sands will generate a lot of wealth in the years ahead. But those who think they will save western civilization from a Peak Oil clusterfuck are going to be very disappointed. We are not going to run the interstate highway system, Walt Disney World, and WalMart on the Canadian tar sands.

     These days, a lot of people (including news reporters) are saying that the tar sands contain the equivalent of a trillion barrels of oil, which is just plain nonsense. It's more like the equivalent of 180 billion barrels -- with world consumption at 30 billion annually (do the math). But the word equivalent is tricky, too, because it's only the equivalent in volume, not in the cost of recovery, since the stuff does not flow out of the ground at room temperature like Texas sweet light crude. The process requires a huge up-front mining operation on top of everything else, conducted in a climate so cold that the 13-foot-diameter tires of giant dump trucks crack regularly. The Achilles heel of the operation is that it requires hundreds of millions of dollars a year worth of natural gas to melt the stiff goop out of the sand, and that Canada's natural gas supply is verging on depletion just as ours is. They'll have a gnarly choice in a few years: either heat their homes or power the tar sands operation.

     Another catch is that even in the short term, the petroleum that is recovered is not going exclusively to the United States or even Canada. The Chinese have been very busily inking contracts for substantial gobs of it. Is George Bush going to send the 82nd airborne into Alberta to secure access to the tar sands?

     But this blog entry is not really about the tar sands, it's about the expectations of the people working off of them, which is that they assume the easy motoring utopia will continue indefinitely and are madly busy building a suburban infrastructure for it to dwell in, even while Canadians themselves are now paying the equivalent of $4 US a gallon for the privilege to commute forty miles a day.

     What's going on in Calgary, with new subdivisions of half-million dollar houses opening every month, is the North American tragedy in microcosm. Because every new suburban house built, every new Target store opened, every new parking lot paved, every highway widened will be a project in the service of a living arrangement with no future. It is a true madness that beats a path to historic tragedy.
      And this is what you have to think about, wherever you live in the US or Canada: what kind of projects and proposals are moving right now in the permitting pipeline of your own municipal planning boards? Things waiting to be built in the next year or two. Chances are they're the same suburban furnishings we've been getting for half a century, in the latest state-of-the-art releases. Each one is a tragedy. Each one will carry us further into darkness.

     How do you stop such suicidal behavior? Probably not by persuasion or exhortation. People change what they are doing when circumstances compel them to and not before. The American public barely even thinks about these things. The Sunday New York Times news section contained not one story this week bout the current state of oil-and-gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. The fact is that Hurricanes Katrina and Rita destroyed more than 90 production platforms as well as pipelines and drilling rigs. The implications are so obvious and we are not getting them.

Comments

[Dave]

The implied CO2 build up from the release of that hellish substance now locked harmlessly in those sands and the shale deposits of the west will build to a tipping point that the earth has experienced before. The Permian Extinction. Percipitated by the release of methane locked in the sea floor it damn near ended life on earth. It failed. Life is tough and will continue but I think it a quite possible we won't.
A friend just lost his daughter in car accident this weekend driving home from the local hot spot at around three in the morning. Beautiful girl, wonderful family now has been offered up to the moloch of the auto-culture. It will be noted briefly, a few tears shed and sadness will fall on their lives but the car ads won't skip a beat and the highway crews will be out paying homage. JHK is right about a lot things and wrong about a few but in his loathing about our auto-fixated society and madness it implies he is right on target. Thanks JHK for this blog it brings home the depths of our madness and the tragic fate of our screwy social arrangements regarding transport and urban life.

[AJ Kandy]

Dave, sorry to hear that news :(

Calgary (and by extension, Edmonton) are both oil cities, much as Houston is. The province of Alberta in general is known as "Canada's Texas" not only for its oil wealth, but also because its cultural attitudes more strongly parallel the American rather than the Canadian mainstream: it is a pickup-truck-driving, bedrock-conservative-voting kind of place, even if the ethnic makeup is slowly becoming more Asian in the cities. Noise is occasionally made, every time the issue of Confederation or federal equalization payments comes up, that Alberta is "tired of supporting freeloading provinces" - such as the poorer Newfoundland, for instance - and musings are made about them 'going it alone' with that supposed billion-barrel oil wealth. Which as we know isn't really 'there' for the taking. If any province has blinders on about the situation, it's them.

I worry that Canada too often looks upon its southern neighbor with a smug sense of satisfaction - that we are not plagued to the same degree with the same social ills, based on the feeling that our society is just a tad more just and egalitarian (less libertarian-individualistic). That won't make us immune to the ravages of Peak Oil.

I am pleased that there is at least one municipal party running on a platform of massive public transit upgrades in the upcoming Montreal elections - Projet Montreal - and even the normally sleepwalking daily English paper is covering the peak oil issue (even if they don't actually want to call it that per se) through some good op-ed pieces and columns. Green roofs and rooftop soil-less gardens were covered recently, with an ominous note that 'in times of crisis, we need to be able to grow our own food...1 in 20 people should have that knowledge'.

[george]

Very sorry about your neighbor's daughter.

The wall Street Journal had an interesting article last week on CEOs playing golf. They were using corporate business jets (which can be converted airliners designed to seat hundreds of passengers) to fly from the midwest and northeast to Florida and sunny climes in the southwest just to play golf. One corporate jet for one passenger. The waste of fuel and money is mind- staggering. To do so while the rest of us are combining trips and switching to smaller vehicles and cutting back every way possible is especially outrageous. Marie Antoinette must be back from the grave giving these CEOs morality lessons.

[AJ Kandy]

oh yes, one little clarification: it isn't freezing in Calgary year-round, they actually do have seasons...gets up to +30C in summer, and as low as -30C in winter, about the same as Montreal, though they have had rare record lows of -45C. They do get a warming breeze (the chinook) that moderates the climate somewhat.

[kd]

Excellent post, Jim. It does indeed sound like Calgary, as you so aptly put it, is "the North American tragedy in microcosm"--a technological & economic tragedy that must encompass an environmental & aesthetic one as well. Excellent & moving comment, Dave. Many thanks to you both.

[speedbird]

"... they assume the easy motoring utopia will continue indefinitely ..."

How true is this? How many people have actually considered what they might do if the gas stations closed tomorrow?

I suspect that it's actually quite a few. In the UK, there's been a recent history of panic buying at the slightest glitch in the market, closing filling stations left, right and centre. I suspect that a lot of people have briefly considered the issues but just don't speak about their half-formed thoughts. Some of these half-thoughts might be very wise; some might be half-baked. I suspect that continuing change could start to bring them out, as if from no-where...

[ross]

Regarding the (semi-serious?) comment by JHK on the use of the 82nd airborne on Canada. If Bush or the next SOB's masters decide it is in our national interest to do so, we will take from Canada (and China) what is legally theirs. Pacifying pacific Canadians would be a breeze compared to dealing with folks in the M.E. Don't you think?

In the meantime our CIC advises wearing layers this winter.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20051003/sc_nm/energy_winter_costs_dc

[kd]

Who knows, Ross, what the U.S. military is capable of. Consider the frightening Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations.

http://www.counterpunch.org/roberts09302005.html

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/policy/dod/jp3_12fc2_15mar2005.htm

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/10/AR2005091001053.html

[Weaseldog]

I thought the American Way Of Life is Non-Negotiable?

Why the Flip-Flopping Bush? Why are you going the Jimmy Carter route? Where did this new pacifism come from? Is there no one to bomb and invade, to fix this problem?

I guess even someone like Bush is eventually humbled by Acts of God and Nature.

[ross]

Thanks for the links kd. Those doctrines, or the core of what they espouse should just be completely out of consideration IMHO, and the fact that we even entertain pre-emptive nuclear attacks is madness.

As I believe some old Roman general (and Pogo) said, I have seen the enemy, and it is us.

[ross]

wease,

You misunderstood the CIC, HIS way of life is non-negotiable.

[george]

"No one to bomb and invade". You might add: "With other people's kids!". Their kids have "other priorities"

[Lisa]

But there is this: more bicycles sold than cars in the U.S. in the past year!

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20051001/ts_alt_afp/usstormenergyenvironmentbicycles_051001131528

[Weaseldog]

"We need an energy policy that encourages consumption." - George Bush in his First State of the Union Address.

[steve duncan]

The violence we're visiting upon others will soon make a visit here. It's not going to be a pretty sight as we run out of oil. $5 to $6 a gallon and friction between the have's and have nots will boil over. I work at a major freeway interchange having a couple mega truck stop fuel facilities also selling gas for autos. A month or so ago during one of the recent price scare/escalations there were attendants updating and raising prices seemingly by the hour. Fistfights broke out in line as drivers jockeyed to get to the pumps before the next increase took effect. How many items are going to remain on Walmart shelves as people loan money to help mom & dad to pay their heat bill, to say nothing of keeping their own furnace stoked?

[Weaseldog]

Welcome to the forum Steve Duncan.

You have a unique perspective on this situation. Please keep us updated on what you see on the front lines.

[kd]

Lisa,

I just returned from the local bike shop to pick up my wife's bike that was being repaired.

There were a surprising number of customers milling about, & I asked the owner about business. He said there's been a big increase over last year at this time.

[Barry]

Dave - condolences to your neighbor on his loss. Our 'free-wheeling' auto lifestyle certainly entails costs other than monetary.
kd - frightening links - this is beginning to look more 'Orwellian' all the time.
Weaseldog - as usual, your comments are 'right on.'
Speedbird - in the Pacific Northwest, we didn't see any out-and-out fistfights but many folks reaction to the increases did play out as Jim had predicted - anger at the oil companies over what was perceived as price-gouging. A few more price increases and who knows what could happen.
Steve Duncan - welcome - look forward to hearing more
I've noticed that both the British and Canadian press have been a bit more forthcoming on the issue of P.O. - at least compared to the " . . . highly concentrated . . . " U.S. media. Damn, that's a very kind way to put it, "highly concentrated."
I'd laugh if I didn't feel like crying.

[Weaseldog]

Ford Sept. U.S. sales fall 19% to 228,157; SUVs plunge (F) By Shawn Langlois
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ford Motor (F) on Monday posted a 19% decline in September U.S. sales to 228,157 cars and trucks, due mainly to a sharp move away from traditional SUVs. The automaker also said customers did most of their buying in the summer when employee discounting sparked an industrywide sales boom. Car and crossover sales actually improved but traditional SUVs saw a 51% plunge amid soaring gasoline prices.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38628.5099814236-844587969&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=&value=&categories=&

[Rodrigo]

Did you cross a picket line in order to impart this wisdom? CBC writers, producers et al. have been locked out for nearly three months.

Who got screwed making this documentary?

[MBB]

Hi all. Been lurking in the back ground for quite a while. I love this blog. I actually wake up looking forward to Mondays. Anyway, been watching, reading and researching PO for a couple of years now, In fact went so far as to install solar panels on my roof for hot water help as we live in the NE and use oil. 1 year later im saving 400 gallons /yr. My neighbors thought I went crazy as they were going up, Whos the crazy one now? ;)

I have family in the UK and my folks back home have been telling me about all the anticipated NG problems they have, scary stuff.

Anyway, just wanted to say hi. Hope to have something good to contribute as time goes by. take care.

[Weaseldog]

Toyota Motor Corp. said Monday that its U.S. vehicle sales jumped 10.3 percent in September as climbing car sales offset a slight decline in trucks.

The Japanese automaker - which sells car and trucks under the Toyota, Lexus and Scion brands - sold 178,417 vehicles during the month, up from 161,793 last September. Car sales jumped 22.2 percent to 107,551 vehicles, more than making up for a 3.9 percent decline in truck sales to 70,866 units.

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2005/10/03/ap2257143.html

[Weaseldog]

I feel like I'm back in Junior High again.

1. Carter is in office.
2. We're at a stalemate in the ME.
3. The House of Saud has us over a barrel.
4. The President wants us to wear sweaters and turn the thermostats down.

[Weaseldog]

Ahhh, my jukebox has cycled around to Nana Mouskouri singing 'Adagio'. All better now.

[EastCoastShock]

There is a new "alternative fuel" now making the rounds in liberal fantasy land. Montana Governor Schweitzer recently suggested that we could solve our oil predicament by simply using synthetic coal fuel! The Kossacks are engaging in a Schweitzer love-fest with only a few holdouts questioning the implications of strip mining the hell out of the countryside or the feasibility of creating said synfuels to begin with.

http://dailykos.com/story/2005/10/3/73438/6591

The situation remains hopeless. Any answer to the Peak Oil problem MUST include something besides these alternative fuel fantasies, namely most of Kunstler's ideas.