Desperation

April 24, 2006
       America commuted back into the unknown country of $3-plus gasoline and $75-plus oil (per barrel) last week, and President Bush revisted the Tomorrowland of hydrogen cars in the absence of any reality-based response to the global energy crunch that will change all the terms of America's "non-negotiable way of life."

     Actually, we are negotiating, or bargaining, as Elizabeth Kubler-Ross once put it in describing the sequence of emotional reactions of humans facing certain death:

denial > bargaining > depression > acceptance

     Events seem to have dragged us kicking and screaming beyond the sheer denial stage, since this is now the second time in six months that oil and gasoline prices have ratcheted wildly up. Something is happening, Mr. Jones, and now we want to talk our way out of it.

     The main thread in this bargaining stage is the desperate wish to keep our motoring fiesta going by other means than oil. This fantasy exerts its power across the whole political spectrum, and evinces a fascinating poverty of imagination in the public and its leaders in every field: politics, business, science and the media. The right wing still pretends we can still drill our way out of this, if only the nature freaks would allow them to. The "green" folks thinks that we can devote crops to the production of gasoline substitutes, even though a scarcity of fossil fuel-based fertilizers will sharply cut crop yields for human food. Nobody, it seems, can imagine an American life not centered on cars.

     This is perhaps understandable when you consider the monumental previous investment in the infrastructures and equipment for motoring, which includes the nation's car-dependent suburban housing stock -- which in turn represents the average adult's main repository of personal wealth. If motoring becomes unaffordable, then what will be the value of my house twenty-eight miles upwind of Dallas (Atlanta, Minneapolis, Denver, Chicago, et cetera)? The anxiety is understandable.

     But the problem is not going away. It's not five or ten years down the road -- it's here, now. We're in the zone. We're entering a world of hurt. The pain will ebb and flow, as the pain of a fatal illness ebbs and flows over the days. The price of oil and gasoline will ratchet up and down, but along a discernable upward trendline.

     Can we bust out of this narrow tunnel of fantasy? Can we imagine living differently? Can we turn more fruitful imaginings into action before the American scene becomes a much more disorderly place? It would be nice to see President Bush really lead by taking a well-publicized ride on the Washington Metro, or dropping in to visit an organic farm, or signing a bill to increase incentives for small-scale hydro-electricity, or turning loose some federal prosectors on WalMart's human resources department. It would be nice to see the Democrats put aside their preoccupations with gender confusion and racial grievance and start campaigning to restore the US railroad system. It would help to see the science and technology sector return from outer space. Corporate America and its leaders are probably hopeless, but so is the current scale and scope of their operations, and circumstances will decide what they get to do. The mainstream media, representing the nation's collective consciousness, remains in a coma. This morning's electronic edition of The New York Times displays not one home page headline about oil or gasoline prices, despite the trauma of the week just passed.

Comments

[Jeff Schultz]

I have been a member of a Peak Oil group for a year now, but I have been aware of it for a while before that. We try to educate and create a policy change. The best quote I have ever heard to describe human behavior is that "People don't change until the pain of not changing outweighs the pain of changing."

We can sit here and warn them all we want. Until there is a crash, and nobody can drive nothing will change.

[Carl Barr]

Kunstlerfuck,

Nice post, I'm looking forward to heading back to the US and paying 70 dollars to fill up my gas-guzzling 300C. But as an upper middle class American I won't be hurting until around $5.00 a gallon. Keep getting the word out!

[peak-a-boo]

I'm 43, no kids, well-meaning but no less selfish than average. As I've become aware of the oil crisis over the last year, I've taken some selfish comfort in the hope that we could coast another fifteen or twenty years, making the unwinding less of an "in-my-lifetime" phenomenon.

I don't think that's reasonable to hope for any longer.

Growing up in middle-class, peacetime America, I've done my best to be aware of, to acknowledge the ease and comfort of my life, not only when compared with elders who experienced the 1930's depression, but with just about anyone anyplace in history.

It's amazing to look out on the street at the pretty houses, and the neighbor kids playing around them, all the while seeing no path to prevent their exposure to unimaginable deprivation.

Twice last week, oung friends let me know they were expecting children. I congratulated them.

Sorry for the disoriented post. I just have the feeling of big changes in the last month, wheels in motion toward a place I'd rather not go to just yet.

[Weaseldog]

For those intent on leaving, there is a group that cpovers these same issues in a moderated forum. Kuntsler has even been spotted there on occasion.

It's at:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/EnergyRoundTable/

Not that I'm trying to steal people away from Jim's blog. But if you're going to form up somewhere else, why not a place that's been doing this sort of discussion successfully for a few years?

[Peter Flass]

I think that only economics is going to force change. The government can provide some encouragement, but it can't compel behavior.

Americans are already beginning to rethink their SUVs, and the use of hybrids is growing rapidly. At some price-point, the cost of driving will outweigh the inconvenience of carpooling and public transit.

When the cost of truck transportation outweighs its convenience, America will return to rail, Then, and only then, will the large infrastructure investment be made to upgrade the rail system.

Sure, I expect we're in for some economic dislocation, but the one thing our economy has always done best is to adapt quickly to changing circumstances.

[German Mike]

JHK, nice post today. The denial > bargaining > depression > acceptance progression hits it right on the spot. I am afraid that the majority of the media and the population have not even been diagnosed as of today. They haven't even reached the denial stage yet, being completely unaware that there could be anything wrong. Best example is my buddy Joe. Just this weekend he's been bragging to me how good his Exxon stock is performing and what a wonderful job our exalted leader is doing. Some more enlightend parts of our populous (including Bush) are in the early stages of the bargaining phase. Hence all that drivel about Ethanol and Hydogen.

[grok]

JHK,
You left out the most important stage...denial, ANGER, bargaining,depression, acceptance.

My friend we are still in the beginning of the clusterfuck: denial.

Politicians like Shumer rail against the oil companies,"the only reason there is high prices is oil company collusion." Denial.

Greens like Lovins advocating "hypercars" that will continue to drive 40 miles from the outer suburban McMansion to work. Denial.

Deluded neo-con stratgists who think they can occupy the middle east oil supply w/o a horrendous cost in treasury, prestige, and blood. Denial.

US auto makers releasing a new line of SUV's. Denial.

Home buyers trading up to a large McMansion which will require massive amounts of energy to run. Denial.

Etc, etc., etc., etc.,...
JHK we are at the gates of denial.

The next stage is the firestorm of anger. Anger that my McMansion is cold 'cause Mr. middleclass can't afford the heating bill. That he has to get up an hour earlier because he needs to car-pool to work. That his kids have little job prospects in the future. That amerika takes it on the chin in the ME. That his shiney SUV sits unused in the driveway while he still makes payments.

The storm of anger when it breaks could sweep away the previous rules of the game. Bush is hoping to keep the populace in denial until he leaves office.

grok out

[John Brown]

JK:

You write...

" The right wing still pretends we can still drill our way out of this, if only the nature freaks would allow them to."

That is so true. Every right winger I've talked to about oil has this line. I think it's been drilled into them by AM talk radio.

[peak-a-boo]

Grok, you're right about the anger.

Question is: against whom will it be directed? Probably not the most-deserving right wing.

They didn't create the oil crisis, but they sure as fuck have shaved a good ten years off the transition horizon.

[Bill]

May comment later on PO issues, but just gotta ask:

What is this gender confusion thing JHK has linked to the Democratic Party? He has mentioned this before and I don't know what the bloody hell he's referring to. The Democratic Party is concerned with equality for all people, largely because they aren't pandering to the sexually intolerant or insecure, as the Republican Party has chosen to do.

Would love to get a better feel for what JHK means because it seems to really stick in his craw.

BTW, part of what I fear will emerge viciously and unrepentantly once the economic and energy source breakdown begins in earnest will be scapegoating of many different groups of Americans. JHK has also talked about this. And I promise you, one of those groups who will be blamed will be people whose sexual orientation and practices deviate from the cultural norm. As will the poorest Americans, the Americans who are not of Northern European origin and the Americans who either do not practice the dominant religion or practice no religion whatsoever.

That is simply a fact and part of what will factor into how bloody and violent things may (probably will) get.

[Eric]

The government is hopeless. The only change will come from citizens- not "consumers". Are there any left?

[grok]

Peak-a-boo,
When the anger sweeps through amerika it will be like a mob in the streets. At first unfocused, then concentrating on "targets". The shift in dialogue about mexican workers gives an inkling of what's to come.

grok out

[Eric Cartman]

I know I shouldn't be worrying about this, but will there be time to experience the Nintendo Revolution before we crash?

[Roger Wehage]

According to the Hirsch Report, http://www.hilltoplancers.org/stories/hirsch0502.pdf , the time to act was in the 80s. Today, nothing short of total abstinence will have any chance of solving our problems.

[German Mike]

grok, good point about the anger. It will most likely hit who ever is in office after Bush, assuming that things don't get too bad in the remainder of his last term. That's why I kind of hope the Republicans will get one more term. At least then the blame will hit the most deserving...I am not saying the Democrates don't deserve any of the blame, just not as much. They are just as incompetent in coming up with solutions as the Republicans are.
8 years of Clinton produced exactly nothing to solve the problems that lie ahead. So no real loss there if the Democrates don't happen to make it.

[peak-a-boo]

Not in 2008, but soon enough, we'll see leadership contenders campaigning on outright scapegoating platforms.

The temptation to power is too great. Even when the problems are fully revealed, when any reasonable person can see the need for immediate conservation and scaleback, the temptation to knowingly promise something-for-nothing will be there. For that offer, there will always be takers. And we'll have outright malevolence in office.

-- Not that we don't now. But today it's a cutesy sort of knuckleheaded malevolence. Maybe even something people will feel nostalgia for.

[grok]

German Mike,
Ya, whoever is closest to the ANGER clusterfuck at that time is going down. Bush deserves, the repubs deserve, the neo-cons deseve to take the hit.

But I am concerned the "feedback" will hit after they are out of power destroying liberalism as an operant ideology and leaving a opening for a Pat Buchanan(sp) with fangs to fill the political vacuum.

grok out

[JMG]

I'm not exactly sure of the connection to Wal-Mart's HR dept, but it would probably always be a good idea to unleash prosecutors on Wal-Mart, so I can ignore that non-sequiter for now.

Like others, I think the Kubler-Ross model is terrifyingly accurate for what we will experience; the only question is whether it's possible that the model (which was created to describe the behavior of individuals) is incomplete when applied to groups. That is, is "acceptance" the same as "resignation" to the impending doom? For a person looking at end stage cancer, resignation probably makes acceptance possible.

But I think the challenge for people who want civil society to be sustained in some manner approximating democracy is to figure out how to motivate people to proceed from "acceptance" to "engagement," which is sort of the opposite of resignation.

That is, I think it's clear that we are, as a whole, in deep denial about Peak Oil and the whole question of infinite-growth economics in a finite world. A few people have graduated to anger, and a few cognoscenti have even, as JHK notes, started bargaining (ethanol, hypercars, etc. --- anything other than stop moving so much).

What I fear most is that when the bargaining is revealed to be futile we will first experience another big wave of anger and then lapse into depression, and too many people will simply stop there, because we seem to have lost the trick of inculcating a positive spirit in people--today, it seems that when the going gets tough, if you can't go shopping, you fold.

(Actually, bringing me back to Wal-Mart, if the jibe was meant to suggest that Wallyworld should be prosecuted for hiring illegals, I think it's worth noting that illegals are the people who I am most optimistic about in terms of "Which groups are least going to be devestated by Peak Oil and lapse into terminal depression over it." Not only do they have less to lose today, but they have the kind of determination and improvisational skill we need far more of in America.)

Anyway, I would like to suggest that the main useful task for CFN habitues is to stop the idiotic flame wars and start a dialog about how--in practical, concrete terms--one helps ones neighbors through the stages without getting stuck, so that after acceptance there is still some readiness to engage in the work that will very much need to be done.

Monasteries turned out to be essential for learning to survive the Dark Ages, but I don't think isolated enclaves are the answer today . . . not that I am sure what the answer is. But I know that's the key question.

[Sean Corley Burke]

I was at the gym yesterday, rocking out on the eliptical machine and gagging at the CNN Headline News broadcast. Atlanta should really have a continuity editor because each story seemed to belong to a different reality.

First, reportage on the panic about rising prices at the pump, replete with man-on-the-street interviews with guys saying things like, "Yo, we oughta open up Alaska or something 'cuz this blows!" Then a report from Twenty-Nine Palms, Calif. where Our Dear Leader addressed Our Troops after a non-denominational prayer rally (or some shit), saying, "The only way we can lose in Iraq is if we lose our nerve." No connection is made between these two events.

Then some bits about expedited deportation measures and hoo-rah xenophobia. Coming on the heels of that, CNN aired a "Welcome to the Future" segment in which Miles O'Brien provided some free advertising for the maker of a gas-powered personal flying machine (!). Tired of spending four hours a day commuting in your shitbox Honda? Don't worry! In the future there'll be jazzy flying mercheens!

This was succeeded by a report about middle and working class people pawning their possessions for gas money. Honestly.

A typical foray into the media ether, I suppose.

[grok]

JMG sez
and a few cognoscenti have even, as JHK notes, started bargaining (ethanol, hypercars, etc.

Sir, this is denial speaking.

Denial that our way of life is unsustainable. That we can't just tinker around the edges of the problem. Hypercars, ethanol, weed-gas, ME occupation armies insist we are still on track, that we can adjust incrementally staying within the hydrocarbon civilization model forever...it's a fantasy and we better wake up.
grok out

[Peter]

No worries, Jim. Humanity will find a way to keep motoring no matter how bad it gets, becuase there's nothing more important. If you don't believe me, just take a look at this 45 minute documentary on Gypsy "Road Warriors" living in a shanty town outside modern Belgrade. http://www.karavans.com/forum/showthread.php?t=7

[nostalgia]

Well, maybe a picture of a famous Peak Oil author riding the Metro from DC's Union Station to College Park MD would be a nice start.

That would be slightly more realistic than Bush, and maybe even be a touch more convincing.

But then, there is denial, and there is simple hypocrisy, and then there are the neo-Jevonists wanting everyone else to take the train - wonder where Kunstler stands?

[A Tykhyy]

grok, different people can be at different stages simultaneously, one in denial another in anger yet another already bargaining...

[ConservativeGreen]

JHK is on target this week, but even then the full horror is not revealed.

If, IF peak oil is here, we are screwed wholesale. There will be no rebuilding the railways in at an even pace. The middle-class will find itself in same position that the middle class in the of the world experiences everyday: bargaining with the rich to get a loaf of bread.

This transition is already underway. The last bargaining chip of the working middle class has been outsourced to China (your petrodollars at work).

For those who are distracted by the fight for liberal secularism, you have been decieved. Its a bait and switch. The rich are winning, peak oil is just another nail in the coffin.

Ok, so what are you going to do? I think there is another revolution going on. A real revolution to take control of the means of production back into the middle class. Buy local, don't feed the corporate machine. Find a way to live without a car as much as possible. Go visit your farmers market this week and see what can be bought from you neighbor.

[steve duncan]

Your analogy to death and dying in relation to oil is apt and holds a relevant message for how people react to impending doom. Can Americans, the citizenry and legislature, be depended on to eventually act on fixing this petroleum quandry? I've known lung cancer patients to smoke out of their tracheostomy while undergoing chemo and radiation attempts to save their lives. I've known alcoholics that drink like a fish with a replacement liver in them. There are enough people with just such a mindset towards oil consumption to assure we'll never address the problem logically or in time to prevent terrible social and economic calamity.