Progress

May 15, 2006
     Is it even possible these days to define a valid doctrine of political Progressivism? The notion of Progressivism per se really comes from that brief and amazing period in the early 20th century when technological advance was lifting so many out of misery that social justice actually began to seem a plausible political goal rather than an idealist fantasy, and social reformers raced to catch up with the advances of telephones, motorcars, and sanitary engineering.

     Progressivism also may have been fatally tied to the accompanying reality of robust industrial economic growth, which itself was tied to abundant new energy resources, mainly oil. The belief that more of everything would become available raised the moral issue of allocating it fairly. Since we now face declining energy resources, and perhaps long-range economic contraction, we would appear to also now face the awful task of allocating less of everything -- which may be as impossible in practice as it sounds.

     So the question now might be: what kind of economic justice is possible?

     The group that used to composed the broad American middle class of industrial workers and managers is disintegrating economically. What will concern them in the years just ahead will be their ability to barely hang on to what they've got, including the roofs over their heads and their health. They will be in no mood for a political movement that is preoccupied with pseudo-psychotherapeutic exercises in self-esteem building along racial and gender lines.

     Allocating scarcity will probably be impossible on the grand scale, which is the federal level. The Republicans have succeeded in recent year by enabling the allocation of false wealth, credit, but their ability to continue that will come to an end with the housing bubble implosion, which will destroy the presumed value of the main asset all that credit has gone into: suburban houses. When that happens, there will be nothing to allocate but grievance.

     True Progressivism sought justice in human affairs, that is, in socio-economic relations that people had some control over. What can we hope to control now? Not the price of oil in worldwide markets.

     The entire thrust of American life the past forty years has been toward the privatization of public goods. That is why suburbia will turn out to be such a fiasco -- because the public realm, and everything in it, was impoverished, turned into a universal automobile slum, while the private realm of the house and the car was exalted. The private goods of suburbia will now have to be
liquidated and we will be left with little more than parking lots and freeways too expensive to use.

     A true Progressivism of the years ahead has to begin by concerning itself with a redefinition of what our public goods really are -- and in practical, not abstract terms. That's why I harp on the project of restoring the railroad system. Not only will it benefit all classes of Americans in terms of sheer getting around, but it would put tens of thousands of people to work at something with real value. It would also begin the process of healing public space ravaged by cars for almost a hundred years.

     A true Progressivism would concern itself with the comprehensive reform of all land use laws, policies, codes, and tax incentives that promote more new car-dependent suburban development. A new Progressivism would put dwindling public monies into the re-activation of our harbors and shipping infrastructure. We're going to need it. It would direct remaining agricultural subsidies into explictly organic, local farming enterprises, not to the Archer Daniel Midland corporation. It would revive the legal practice of restricting monopolies in business. It has to lead us in the direction of making other arrangements for how we live.

     The obvious problem, of course, is that the American public doesn't want to make other arrangements. It wants desperately to hold onto the old arrangements. The nation is stuck with its enormous investments in car-dependency, and what has remained of our economy lately is devoted to creating even more of it -- in the face of signals that we won't be able to run it no matter how much people like it.

     Progress isn't what it used to be, and it isn't what it seems. If Americans get what they deserve they may give up on both progress and justice.

    

Comments

[fizure]

Doesn't seem like investors or consumers, to their own demise, are ready to give up putting theit faith in a "super market for the world"...

if so, they're a damn shitty profiteering super market that is hardly stocked with anything at all except massive subsidy.

Look at that fucking baby, jesus:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ADM&t=my

up up and away, to wonderland we go!

Don't make me go find the Mansanto yahoo finance page--that may just drive me over the edge. Or perhaps we can start dissecting the ethanol lobby? I'm off to drink. Happy Mothers' Day to all those mothers who frequent JHK's comment section =]

[Barry]

Oh yeah, fiz -
Checkin' that chart just gave me a good, quick reality check. "Super market for the world," huh? Looks like that's what they're tryin' for.
Globalization (in spite of some noble thought from the founders) has turned out to be a profitable venture for the 'elites' and a means by which the entire remaining population of the planet is able to share the 'poverty.'
Great moo, I love the 'market.' :-(

[Peter]

JHK: "The obvious problem, of course, is that the American public doesn't want to make other arrangements. It wants desperately to hold onto the old arrangements."

Americans need to stop and take a look at themselves from the perspective of the rest of the world. You know, the "other 95%" of the world's population.

Last week we discussed how the world is forming blocs to serve as countervailing forces to the Neocon agenda. http://www.321energy.com/editorials/engdahl/engdahl050806.html

This week let me point out a very entertaining music video on how the world views us these days:
http://www.archive.org/download/resistcomauWehighquality/We_Arundhati_Roy__256k.wmv

We are the gluttonous 500 lb fatman who raids the cafeteria and devours everything before the rest of the employees take their lunch break.

Watch the video as it has one of the best soundtracks in years.

[Peter Burke]

People will not be able to connect the dots until it is too late. A major part of the 500 lb. American caricature is the shrinking head and and the utter inability to understand international affairs. This would involve reading-another part of the shrinking head syndrome. I take a train now and then and find the service pitiful. Rebuilding our infrastructure is directly tied to highways. Nothing will change until economic collapse becomes a reality.

[paul]

Good one today, good article, good comments (thus far). Well done.

On the matter of the loss of the public domain, why not a discussion of this very matter in the context of the "high" gas prices at the pump? Instead of whining about corporate oil profits, why don't we rest control of the piece of the puzzle that belongs to us? What is the price being paid by the oil companies to extract oil from our public lands? It's certainly too low and an elevation in that price along with the (theoretical) increase in tax revenue could be used to ease the burden tax-payers are feeling funding their daily lives.

[arch.stanton]

Cool film. I was good for about the first 1/2 and then my nictating membranes shut down.

If what is wrong with the world is US (and exclusively US) activities abroad, there's not much to be done then. Both political parties have long signed up for that E ticket ride, complete with unintended consequences.

In a political world where people like Ron Paul are viewed as fringe nut cases, we are not likely to see significant changes in our activist foreign policies anytime soon.

[Peter]

Peter B.

Call me an irrepressible optimist, but I think there's still hope for the human race. No we won't avoid a prolonged depression, but I think we can avoid the massive die-off some predict.

Most of the human race--Americans in particular, because of their media saturated lives--have become lemmings. They do whatever they think everyone else is doing. If everyone else is watching American Idol, as if it were most important thing in the world, then that's what they do too.

On the bright side, this means that if you can get a tiny percentage doing something new, something different, then a sea change can result as others begin to follow.

I see evidence of the public finally waking up to the possibility of permanent fuel shortages. I also see a lot of people implementing new ideas for how we can live in a world of energy descent.

I keep plugging Jeff Vail here. He says that the future will depend on who wins the "war of the memes." I agree with him on this. It's rhizome versus hierarchy. It's a war of ideas not of bullets.

We need to give people a positive alternative to what we have today. It's not enough to just lecture them about driving less and recycling more. You need to show them that there's a better life to the one we have. Everyone I know is stressed out and unhappy today. No wonder so many diverse groups want "The End" to come, from Fundies to the Mayan Calender crowd.

The answer lies in people grasping that true happiness comes from community and working together. Energy descent will provide the great project for all of us to collaborate on.

All the BS we have been fed about individualism and ruthless competition has become toxic.

[Peter]

I'm going out for a walk in nature. So I will leave you with what I personally believe to be one of the most morally repugnant statements ever uttered:

"The American Way of Life is non negotiable." - The Sneer

Just stop for a moment and allow the sheer depravity of this sink in.

Is the 500 lb glutton really more important than everyone else?

[Barry]

Peter - good comments. Especially, I liked the bit about communities. This is an area in which I've spent a lot of time and energy over the last three years . . . much of it with lower and low-income people, building community councils at housing sites, so that residents have a greater say in how their properties (and homes) are managed. I can say, proudly and first-hand, that many of these folks are much more in tune with the 'reality' of the impending shortage of energy sources than are their 'better off' neighbors. But, as you say, the 'leisured' class is, by and large, pretty much lemming mentality . . . and, if someone starts the ball rolling, at least a few will want to find out what's going on. The major caution I see is being 'too open' . . . as a whole, this crowd's become pretty lazy, pretty 'spoiled,' and pretty damn complacent with the lives they lead. Take that away suddenly, and, rather than be moved toward personal self-sufficiency, they may decide to take what they want to sustain their 'old lifestyle' as long as possible. If things progress more slowly, the 'rhizomic' model is a great one. In a catastrophic collapse, I think it could get ugly, even for those who've undertaken their 'survival' projects early and seriously. Let's hope for the 'slow' descent . . . the thought of an 'avalanche' is too distressing.

[Cynical]

JHK: "The obvious problem, of course, is that the American public doesn't want to make other arrangements. It wants desperately to hold onto the old arrangements."

We need to remember that the current situation we found ourselves in was packaged and delivered by GM and the Federal government. Even now, the tax code favors sprawl.

I believe that most Americans would choose a more sensible living arrangement if it were available. I'd love to ditch my car and ride the trolley and train. Sitting in traffic doesn't make me free!

[David Mathews]

Does anybody really believe that the solution to the Peak Oil problem is found in rebuilding the railroads?

I'd like to know exactly how much will it cost to build a railroad system extensive enough to replace the Interstate highway system & efficient enough to move millions of people to work and back every day?

It is unlikely for two major reasons:

1. The United States of America is already burdened by trillions of dollars in debt and so doesn't have the money available to take on such a project.

2. Americans equate cars with freedom and self-expression. If they are willing to spend thousands of dollars for chrome wheels what sort of argument would it take to convince them to sacrifice the automotive lifestyle?

The American way of life is non-negotiable because America sold its soul to the automobile back in the early 20th century. America must follow this path to its ultimate conclusion, i.e. the bankruptcy and dissolution of the United States of America.

***

I should point out that the Peak Oil problem is a lot larger than the United States of America. There are six and a half billion people on the Earth. Many of these people are suffering already, in the future it is likely that the population of sufferers will only increase.

What can we do to help these people?

Haiti, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Iraq, Sudan, Indonesia, Mexico ... all countries which are suffering collapse at some level. Shall we allow these people to die while worrying about the future problems of America?

What I would suggest is that Americans sacrifice the American economy on behalf of the billions who suffer, but who would ever allow the death of the impoverished to interfere with their participation in the America's religion of consumption?

America's most serious problem is the American Way of Life. If building railroads serves to preserve the American Way of Life it will only serve to further destroy the world and make life that much more difficult for the generation that will inherit a depleted, polluted and inhospitable world.

[Tuli]

Dear Peter:

Thank you for the link to Roy’s video. She is brilliant and I missed her last appearance at Columbia unfortunately.

Jim, as usual, thank you for a thoughtful and insightful post. The folks who comment at this site are always inspirational.

[Shane]

You can't un-grow an elephant, but you can cut it into pieces and carry it away.

You can't un-grow an economy, a society, or anything complex and interdependent. Complex things sicken and die and are replaced by independent, simpler, smaller entities. Like a kid that gradually climbed a tree we will soon be forced to fall to get down again.

At some point we will lose our collective cultural identity, and the process will be complete. Until we are forced to change who we think we are we will not willingly change what we do.

[ross]

I enjoyed this week's blog cum history lesson. Progessivism indeed. We've come a long way baby. And as we respond to this evenings cyber pith the world is percolating with all sorts of "developments."

On the world finance front, (my pet subject around here), the Chinese have once again revalued the Yuan and Russia is talking about having its own ruble based energy bourse. My oh my but the big "crush the dollar" boulder sure does move quickly once it is begins to move...downhill. Actually the greenback began its inexorable descent years ago, but there was a pause until recently.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aBBYI7EMmgBY&refer=home

I agree with Arch about Railroads and the danger of seeing them as the replacement/solution to our personal auto based transportation system. Having said that, I don't think anyone here thinks of railroads in that way, that is, as the solution that allows us all to continue business as usual.

I recall that Guns n' Roses had a song called welcome to the jungle. Someone should write one called Welcome to the Shitstorm or WTTS. Sound positively metal.

[Peter]

On my walk, I thought about why we have the situation that we do. Most Americans are pretty decent people one on one. Unfortunately, due to all of the media distractions, they are unaware of what's really going on. I believe that if they were inbformed about the situation, most (i.e., 3/4 ths) would make voluntary sacrifices and cooperate in a power down of society.

If you don't believe me, just look at how we responded in other crises such as WW II.

So what's really going on? I think the explanation is neatly summed up by the title of a new book I saw last week: Hostile Takeover: How Big Money and Corruption Conquered Our Government--and How We Take It Back.

Almost the entire history of this country is a story of tension between big business interests and the people--particularly the last 160 years.

Over the past five years we have seen big business finally succeed in a complete takeover of America.

The little people no longer matter. Unfortunately, that's 95% of Americans.

[futurebird]

**"They will be in no mood for a political movement that is preoccupied with pseudo-psychotherapeutic exercises in self-esteem building along racial and gender lines."**

That's true. However, drawing lines to separate people by race is one of the reasons we have suburbs. Fear of diversity keeps people from living in places that do not require a car-- fear of other people makes a train ride seem like a step down (rather than a step up) from every person driving in his or her own privite bubble. Why do people want to do all that extra work? They could relax and read a book on the way to work each day shoulder to shoulder with their fellow humans.

(but it's the shoulder to shoulder part that scares people)

I mean, think of how integration in the schools propelled people in to the suburbs. We can't have public spaces if we are unable to coexist.

[Peter]

"Welcome to the Jungle" should be the official anthem for Bush's compassionate conservatism.

[Peter]

Futurebird, you make an interesting point.

Why have we become so loathe to sit or stand shoulder to shoulder?

Back in the 1970s, I used to read John Cheevers' stories in which the protagonist invariably commuted to work in NYC by train from his Connecticut home, and my reaction as a West Coaster was, "How utterly civilized!"

Have you ever ridden the street cars in San Francisco? You can't name a more pleasurable form of mass transit than that.

[Jerry Johnson]

Ross,
It looks like the tactical beginnings of a dollar dump are under way. The Chinese and Russians between themselves hold over $1 trillion in dollar reserves. Most of these reserves generated in the last six or seven years. I suspect the first finance war is now in full swing.

The gurus are all talking a big sell down of equities and bonds at the same time very soon. The money bailed from the new economy bubble to real estate where a huge portion of the domestic money resides in real estate. Hard to sell real estate off on the spur of the moment. I wonder just how much foreign money wants to bail from the US securities to commodities? Pronto too , I expect. It has taken six years to rebuild the DOW, not a very impressive thing unless it was marginally very heavy foreign influx of petro dollars now wanting to bail. So I bet this is the first artillery barrage of the first finance war.

After all, they must send the message to the US to to get out and stay out of the ME before any Iranian adventure.

The number of plays by all the interested parties here is awesome.

Geopolitically, they can ruin the Reublican's for good! One onslaught after another all summer, hoping like hell we get a couple Katrina's thrown in for good measure.

[Dave]

Peter

Thanks for the Roy video. It was simply great ! I was very much moved it. Now can you give me the site where I can buy it or download it. I'd like to have the DVD for sharing with friends. Computer savy I have little and I would sure love to own this DVD so if you can inform I'd be thankful.
It was very moving. Dave

[Peter]

Dave,

From what I understand it was created for free distribution over the Net.

[Nicholas Paredes]

As some have pointed out, many are well equiped to deal with not having enough by simply never having had enough. I am staying in Pilsen currently, a poorer Mexican community in Chicago. Compared with a much better neighborhood I recently left, the community here is really interesting. People talk to each other, share, eat together. It's nice.

Please remember the hand that giveth, taketh away! Money is a common agreement. If I want my neighbor's tomatoes more than somebody else's worthless currency, what does the money matter? The cities have lots of potentially very valuable empty land, and a new social contract imposed by an angry citizenry can change many assumptions.

[dangerbird]

JJ
You must really be full of raw hate to wish a couple of Katrinas to be foisted upon people just to advance your political wishes.
Seeing those fevered musings expressed here makes me wonder what's the difference between you and the KKK.
So you don't use the n-word. Big deal. While you most likely don't have the courage to personally string someone up, you would probably fit well in and amongst the cheering jeering crowd.
You should rethink your hateful proclivities. You're losing your humanity.

[ross]

JJ wrote,

Ross,
It looks like the tactical beginnings of a dollar dump are under way. The Chinese and Russians between themselves hold over $1 trillion in dollar reserves. Most of these reserves generated in the last six or seven years. I suspect the first finance war is now in full swing.

-It sure look like it, and it's quite a spectacle considering the party's just getting started. I guess we can surmise what the partygoers be using for confetti.

The gurus are all talking a big sell down of equities and bonds at the same time very soon.

-Sell in May and go away. But seriosuly, I think we have a nasty spill in shares sometime this year. Hell, it could break badly this week. the Fall is as you know the usual time for crashes but of course it's no hard and fast rule. In any event I hope there is a decent bounce that precedes any crash wave that may be coming along.

The money bailed from the new economy bubble to real estate where a huge portion of the domestic money resides in real estate. Hard to sell real estate off on the spur of the moment.

-Yeah, R.E.'s about as illiquid as a pet giraffe.
Have you seen the chart on Toll brothers, it looks like Cisco after it broke?

I wonder just how much foreign money wants to bail from the US securities to commodities? Pronto too , I expect. It has taken six years to rebuild the DOW, not a very impressive thing

-Exactly, on an inflation adjusted basis the Dear old Dow needs to go to 14,000+ just to equal its ATH. And as you say there has to be a mad pileup of massive proportions waiting to get into comods. And you just know they all want to get in at a good price. For all I know some of this money has been pressuring metal/mining stocks down. Their weakness has been very curious during this big move up in pms.

unless it was marginally very heavy foreign influx of petro dollars now wanting to bail. So I bet this is the first artillery barrage of the first finance war. After all, they must send the message to the US to to get out and stay out of the ME before any Iranian adventure.

The number of plays by all the interested parties here is awesome.

Geopolitically, they can ruin the Reublican's for good! One onslaught after another all summer, hoping like hell we get a couple Katrina's thrown in for good measure.

-It would be nice to see The Republican ruined for good as they themselves are so ruinous. I hear the the Yakuza have Tesla Scalar weaponry that they are using to cause Hurricanes in the Gulf.
Just kidding.

[Don in Maine]

Good stuff out here tonite, I think Jim is on a roll, already can't wait for next week.

Arch fleshed out some of my unease about the idea that we can slow down or stop the coming problems.

Human nature being what it is, I really like Jeff Vails vision, but sorry to say I do not see many signing on to it. Running a "service" business for the last 10 years does not give me a whole lot of hope in Joe Sixpack.

I go back to Emerson a lot.

"Emerson observed, that we tend to dismiss them. “A man should learn,” he advises in “Self-Reliance,” “to detect and watch that gleam of light which flashes across the mind from within, more than the lustre of the firmament of bards and sages.” If, Emerson said, you have the courage to “believe your own thought,” you will come to credit the truth of your intuitions, and in doing so you will catch a glimpse of something more. You may not have the intensely developed vision of another of Emerson’s heroes, Dante, who in his ultimate apprehension saw, “like a wheel revolving uniformly,” the force that “moves the sun and the other stars.” But you will find, Emerson said, that there is an idea of order at work both in the universe and your own soul."