Science Fiction

May 8, 2006
     Riding the van out of the airport Friday night to the Park-and-Fly lot, with the planes floating down in the distant violet gloaming, an eerie recognition came over me that life today is as much like science fiction as it will ever get -- at least as far ahead as I can see. Some of my friends' kids may never fly in airplanes. They may never own cars. At some point twenty, thirty years ahead, they may not take for granted throwing a light switch in a dark room.

     Our sense of normality will be coming up for review soon, and hardly anybody seems ready to face it. The now-consistently moronic New York Times played a story in the Sunday business section which said that "consumers" were just shrugging off three-dollar gasoline and spending like gangbusters in the super discount box stores. It seems not to have occurred to the editors that perhaps three dollars a gallon is not the final destination of our pump prices. They were so triumphal over the public's supernatural immunity to the three-dollar-flu that they failed to essay what four-dollar or even five-dollar a gallon gasoline might do to America's shopping heroes.

     My own guess is that it is liable to drive the NASCAR grandstand ticket prices a wee bit higher, at least.

     But such is the mood of the nation on the cusp of the summer driving season. What the Timesmen/women might have also missed is the fact that all that heroic shopping is being accomplished with "money" as yet unearned -- on plastic, that is. The three-dollar a gallon fill-up isn't causing any pain because nobody is forking over actual dollar bills, and the same thing with those $1500 plasma flat screen TVs that the hero consumers are scooping up so valiently from the Best Buy loading docks.

      I think our future perception of all this will be as a kind of reverse science fiction -- in the sense that sci fi has until now always been presumed to take place in the future. The science fiction of my friends' children will take place in the past. When some of them are old, the omnipresent electric power of this time, and all the wonders that ran on it, will seem like an unfathomable occult force that saturated the world like a spell. They will tell stories about it in the flickering firelight, and their grandchildren will blink in amazement.

     It's too bad they will never see a Harry Potter movie, with its utterly blase and incessant deployments of magic. These children of the future will be astonished when somebody manages to roast a parsnip.

Comments

[you've lost the plot]

Whilst reduction in oil supplies will definitely affect motoring and air-travel. I fail to see how it will greatly affect home electricity which is suplied through coal and nuclear power sources. Neither of which is about to run out in the near future.

[ross]

And what form of energy do you suppose is used to extract coal and uranium from the ground? Who's lost the plot now?

[Matt]

... and that uranium production could peak by about 2040 as well. . .

[Mark]

Europe has $10 gas right now, they are surviving. I think $5 gas will slow things down but not cause a panic. If gas is unavailable, at any price, is a different story.

[nicholas paredes]

$10/gallon gas is acceptable in Europe as most people do not own cars, and have readily available transportation options. As somebody in Amsterdam said to me, it takes the same amount of time to take the train or drive to Rotterdam, but then you have to find a parking space... When's the last time somebody said that to you about going from city to city?

[nicholas paredes]

$10/gallon gas is acceptable in Europe as most people do not own cars, and have readily available transportation options. As somebody in Amsterdam said to me, it takes the same amount of time to take the train or drive to Rotterdam, but then you have to find a parking space... When's the last time somebody said that to you about going from city to city?

[nicholas paredes]

$10/gallon gas is acceptable in Europe as most people do not own cars, and have readily available transportation options. As somebody in Amsterdam said to me, it takes the same amount of time to take the train or drive to Rotterdam, but then you have to find a parking space... When's the last time somebody said that to you about going from city to city?

[Sean]

plot,

Our various systems of energy are interdependent and reliant on one another. Neglecting this fact generally seems to be the necessary component for the basis of many of our assumptions.

For example, many tout ethanol while never actually considering the diesel-powered equipment, oil-based chemicals and natural gas-based fertilizers (and heat source) needed to produce the stuff.

Electricity is likely to become scarce, and produced on a smaller and more local scale in the future.

[ross]

A very interesting article from William Engdahl.
It's interesting for a whole host of reasons, not the least of which is in talking about the present woeful U.S. geo-political position, oil is not mentioned.

The basic idea of the first part of the article entitled "The Disintergration of The Bush Presidency" is that the neo-con's conduct of foreign policy has been deemed a failure by other elite players inhabiting the halls of power if not the halls of government. If this is indeed the case, I can't help but find such a state of affairs tragically laughable.

Who in their right mind could have sincerely believed that the group in power could have suceeded. It's a tall enough order for the best of men, but given that the Bush Administration is peopled by folks whose collective character displays boatloads of incompetence, greed, arrogance, callousness deceitfulness and adherernce to delusional doctrines of various kinds, who could have reasonably expected a success? Where was the proven track record in anyone starting with the President himself, who prior to taking office failed in every non political endeavor he was ever involved with, and who where service to his country was concerned, did not act with honor. As for for case of service to his country, the same could be said of the Vice President who clearly was a shirker. But putting what are essentially issues of character aside, did either Rumsfeld or Cheney ever display the gravitas of say, George Marshall, or the intellectual depth of someone like George Kennan? For that matter, did dedicated foreign policy wonks, Paul Wolfowitz or George? No, and so one wonders on what foundation the belief, if indeed there was belief, in the neo-cons rested.

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/engdahl/engdahl050806.html

[ross]

Paul Wolfowitz and George Perle it should have read.

[Bustin Justin]

I just watched a PBS Pledge drive today where the pitch was a donation for some healthy living DVDs... the young woman who demonstrated how to do a push up to a room full of fatties was lauded for her state of health despite giving birth to 6 children. No one person's genes are that special.

[Bustin Justin]

Its tough being a young person these days. 'What do you want to DO with your life?' they ask you. Is this some sort of joke? We're not the ones with a lifetime of experience. We ask, "What can we do?" expecting a substantive answer, instead we get, "What do you WANT to do?" And then, if we are unsatisfied with our options, its somehow our fault.

G. Bush shows up, in paternal blue, to tell that we're going to have to keep learning new skills throughout our lives. Well, what happened to having a career, being part of a community? Doing something useful and fulfilling? Having 'job security'?

G. Bush acts like this whole situation is just bad weather, a set of conditions that just blew in one day.

WHO is responsible for mercury tainted fish? WHO is responsible for an economy where no one makes anything? WHO is responsible for dropping the ball on a steady reduction of workweek over time? WHO is responsible for the steady erosion of politcal participation? Out of control corporate dominancy of government, media, and food supply?

It would be satisfying in a Fallujah kind of way to have these people found, dragged out into the light of day, and punished. What happens there to people is just a visceral reminder that people have an unlimited capacity for retribution when they feel limitless injustice, powerless in their own worlds.

[Jennifer]

I just wasted time reading an incredibly depressing comment board where this one guy insists that the way to solve our problems is to allow people to vote on how much gas prices should be, and then have the government force the companies to sell it for that much. I don't know if it's his ignorance of economics or his ignorance of oil supplies that's more depressing.

As for the science fiction theme, I've always had a certain fondness for science fiction about the ruins of fallen civilizations. "The ancient ones called this place Wah Shin G'ton. This big statue was their seated god, Leen Kohn. And that white spire is the Finger of God, pointing to the sky."

[Dave]

To paraphrase the Greek Tragedians
"Why do the Gods give such gifts only to yank them away ?"

This to me captures the dismay that is to befall the spirit of mankind.

An anecdote on how the dark age will spread and capture the age to come. Today I was at an event of a progressive sort when this rather strange character began to explain how just how the theory of intelligent design was soon to triumph over Darwin. He concluded with this assertion' "Why these brainy types have damn near destroyed the world it seems. Why would you belive in them ?" I was taken back by the comment because it holds a core of bitter truth. If the chaos that is coming due is blamed on the followers of the life of the mind as exemplified by scientific reasoning how will that life be continued in the face of GW, PO, and the mass suffering those monsters imply for humanity ? Perhaps the Yahoos will win and win permanently !

[Don in Maine]

Good one JHK, our lives are the chorus of science fiction. Orson Card, Pat Caddigan,Gibson, Sterling, Asimov.

We are living one of P. K. Dicks interesting dreams.

In the words of the master Arthur C. Clarke.

Clarke's Third Law:
"Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

Must reading for this group is "A Canticle for Leibowitz" you will never think of a grocery list in the same way again.

See you all in Chiba City.

[Shane]

I can remember back to childhood in the 80s when everyone was caught up in a wave of enthusiasm over the future. Robots would do all our menial tasks and we would simply lounge around and sip cold drinks. Serious discussions were had about how we would cope with all our leisure time. Life expectancy would stretch away to eternity as the last few serious diseases were conquered.

Now that mass computerisation and the pandora's box of genetic engineering are actually here no one seems to want to think about the future anymore. Convenience and mass production has reduced the value of everything we do and own. A sizeable portion of my friends, in response to attempts at discussing peak oil etc, freely admit they know we are all headed into the toilet. But they have decided to enjoy the last bit of the party while it lasts. If you can avoid the temptation to reduce the future into a single and instantaneous change for the worst then there are obvious things to do to mitigate the risks. Maintaining the motivation while swinging between "everything will be fine-do nothing" and "everything will be lost-no point trying" is the hard part.

[snuffy]

That was heavy reading for my teenage eyes DIM.I do,from time to time think of our current days as being in a scific novel.Not a good one.
Andre Norton had another,the book that set me to reading S.F. up 'till just a few years back.It was called"The Stars are Ours" and was set in a world that rejected science,and followed theocracy.

What was usually the cause of collapes in that gentre ,is a nuke exchange.Rarely have I seen the causes for a exchang detailed.In Canticle,one of the most interesting parts I remember is the reaction of the black man to the remaining Affricaners/boers....wanting them to be left in their final collapsed tribe,dependent on a single fiberglass boat for their survival

What appears now is we are going down hard.The Hirsch D.O.E. report was quite clear about the disruptions that will occur ,should no action be taken until
peak occured. While the final,brutal truth has not reached the majority of the public,Its lookin' like we're there,and getting ready to hit the wall @ ramming speeed

I have tried to get my family more motivated,for prep and to face the fact of a declineing life style,expectancy,and livelyhood,but I am sure "weaveing on air" as my wife would say,until some drastic occurence convinces them that the end is nigh...Ah well,I suppose this has been the lament of parents for as long as have had children doing stupid things...later

[I hope Avian flu spreads...]

It is sad to think that Europe deals with $10 a gallon gas and we gripe yet do nothing about $3. Some of you may disagree but I think higher prices are what we need in order to stop our complete dependency, at the same time I am coming from a position that something will take the place of oil as our transportation fuel. I know many of you disagree with me but that's how I feel.

[David Mathews]

The technology era is coming to an end. About time, too, though in this case about ten centuries too late. Or ten thousand years too late, as some have concluded that agriculture was the original mistake which set humans on the destructive path which made this present global ecological holocaust inevitable.

It's such a pity that humans have squandered such an excellent opportunity to use all those unique talents present in Homo sapiens for accomplishing something good in this Universe. Instead, from the earliest ages of prehistory until this very day the humans have spread violence and destruction all over the globe.

It is thoroughly disgusting to contemplate all of the horrendous acts which humans commit every day. I wonder how God feels about this terrible creature which seems to dominate the Earth but in reality does not?

We humans have made such a mess of the world. At some point in our evolution Nature must have made some terrible mistakes in our mental and emotional programming. How else to explain the universal tendency among humans to engage in a perpetual war with Nature as if our source of life is also our greatest enemy?

We've created nearly all of our technologies in order to transcent nature, though in reality all we have accomplished was to destroy nature. Humans have not transcended anything. Our powerful tools have only served to magnify our violence and vices.

Have you spent any time observing humans objectively? Look at the consumers obsessively buying and still wanting to buy. Their thoughts become enslaved to these small trivialities while altogether failing to notice that the Universe exist & is really an impressively large, complicated and beautiful place.

The consumer wants more, more, more. The consumer doesn't actually know or understand why he/she wants more. All that the consumer knows is that the only reason for life is to buy and acquire things.

The consumers are pitiful fools. They neglect the most beautiful and wonderful things in the Universe as they search for something which they certainly will throw away.

All the while billions of humans are left to rot. Who cares about the suffering? All these billions of people who are deprived of the basic necessities of life. They are irrelevant to the American consumer. Life is for buying (for us), these other people apparently were born only to suffer & die.

Dozens of people are dying every day in Iraq ... American soldiers, innocent civilians, women and children. No one seems to notice or care any more. Technology is not such a blessing to the poor people of the Middle East. For these oppressed people Oil is the ultimate curse.

The cycle of violence continues and all that technology offers is momentary distractions. Humankind's era of dominance over the Earth quickly comes to an end, as it should. Technology fails, inevitably. Humankind fades away, as we should.

Nature continues on for another billion years or so. The sun swells to become a red giant and swallows the Earth. But all is not lost. As the sun consumes the Earth and reaches the end of its life a beautiful planetary nebula forms to grace the Milky Way with its beauty.

That's the future. Might as well accept it.

[Superskepticalman]

Reminds me of Asimov's Foundation Trilogy when, in the aftermath of the collapse of the Galactic Empire, semi-trained caretakers remembered when their predecessors could build their machines, not just sort-of take care of them.

Science fiction of the past in the present as metaphor for the science fiction of the future from the past. Perhaps the age of the caretaker is at hand.

[arch.stanton]

Please, enough with the 'THE EUROPEANS PAY FIFTY SEVEN DOLLARS A GALLON FOR THEIR GAS'. So what, they have higher tax rates (including whomping sales tax) and have their own set of problems. In the final analysis, they are as screwed as we are (especially if that Gulf Stream decides to slow down a mite). The boredom I feel when yet another expert making a pronouncement about gas prices in the EU is too close to terminal for comfort.

Personally, I expect that natural gas shortages will hit sooner and harder than liquid fuels. Home heat is not such an easy thing to manufacture and guess what everyones favorite source of electricity is?

[Jon S.]

There will be enough industrial leavings, and solar panel / windmill contraptions, for there to be an oddball steampunk parody of our current culture stretching out to infinity. Arcane artifacts will be plentiful.

But yeah, in general, energy is shaping up to be incredibly dear. I've been watching closely for over a year, I'm definately more conversant in skiffy than JHK - - (which is no slur on him, more a matter of taste.) - - and lemme tell yeah, no one has demonstrated an effective alternative to fossil liquid fuel yet, other than (enforced) conservation. By enforced, meaning, less physically available.

The airlines will be done by 2010. Don't take a guilt trip, take a plane trip while you still can.

I still eagerly await the genius who can come up with an alternative source of energy which is non-carbon emitting.

Of the carbon emitters, I guess there is oceanic methane hydrates, DOE seems excited, except that scenario didn't work out too well for the wee critters of the Late Paleocene Thermal Maximum.

Anyways, it is all there, in black and white, but nobody wants to do the math, not even me.

[donna]

David Mathews sez:

>At some point in our evolution Nature must have made some terrible mistakes in our mental and emotional programming. How else to explain the universal tendency among humans to engage in a perpetual war with Nature as if our source of life is also our greatest enemy?

Dave, not all people through all history have done this. Pre-agricultural people, such as the Native American Indians, perforce lived harmoniously with nature and had completely different ideas about the place of humans in nature than we do.

If folks haven't read Daniel Quinn's Ishmael books (Ishmael, My Ishmael, Story of B), you could be quite enlightened by his concepts of Leaver (pre-totalitarian agricultural) peoples and Taker (totalitarian agricultural) peoples. Totalitarian agriculture came about around 10,000 years ago when people began to stay in one place and grow crops. This gave them surplus food, which allowed them to expand their populations. As their populations expanded, they pushed into other people's territories and took them over (or killed them) and grew more food, which allowed them to expand their numbers yet further. And then they needed more territory. In this way, agriculturists took over the entire planet, pushing out the hunter-gatherers that had previously lived more lightly on the earth. The agriculturists also killed all the plants that competed with their food plants and all the animals/birds/bugs that ate their food plants. There are a couple more layers to this that I forget at the moment. But the ultimate result has been the monolithic factory farms of today and the extermination of practically every Leaver people on the planet. The American Indians were Leavers, and now they're a remnant.

Very interesting stuff, lots more than just the above in Quinn's books. If you read nothing else of his, I recommend picking up Story of B and reading only the appendix, as it's a good presentation of his world view wilthout being cluttered up with story.

[Dumas]

I wonder whose science fiction is more powerful and potent in shaping the future? From yesterday's NYT article about the new Boeing 787 airliner:

"By 2024, Boeing estimates, 35,000 commercial planes will be flying, more than twice the number now aloft, and 26,000 new planes will be needed to satisfy additional demand and replace aging ones."

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/07/business/yourmoney/07boeing.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

Aptly enough, the new plane is called "The Dreamliner".

[DuEl]

There is no energy crisis nor will there ever be. Energy is always conserved and the 1st law always applies. Its the second law that is of more concern, the entropy crisis. Being in a chemical engineering program at school is interesting as we've been told many times that it is our generation that will be tasked with fixing the problem. Yeah... i'll get right on that! Thanks boomers, burn up all the good cheap fuel and leave us with the crap. I guess I can always work for exxon for a while when finished, seems they won't be hurting any time soon.