The Widening War

July 24, 2006
     Israel says that nothing but the complete destruction of Hezbollah will do for them, but they may have to settle for less. For one thing, it might require the complete destruction of Hezbollah's landlord, Lebanon, which is something that world opinion won't swallow.

     But while we're at it, what actually is this world opinion? The nation-players and teams they belong to have various motives for adopting their positions. The Europeans are content to deplore the Israeli response to Hezbollah violence for several reasons. One, they are terrified of their own Muslim immigrant populations and don't want any smash-up riots or subway bombings. Second, they want to appear sympathetic to the oil exporting nations (including Iran) in order to continue enjoying a regular stream of oil imports without paying extra costs, which they are content to shift onto Israel and the United States -- namely, the cost of engaging the aggressive emnity of a restive and belligerent Islam. Third, the Europeans want to capture the geopolitical moral high ground once occupied by US after the collapse of communism.

     And while we're at it, why is Islam in such a dark mood? Not just because the Palestinians are agrieved at the Israelis. I think the violent intemperance of Jihad is the expression of an ecological crisis: too many people suddenly occupying a region of the world that could not support them without the artificial nutrient of oil -- plus the fact that this region has reached its point of all-time maximum oil production, with the awful prospect of having less and less oil from now on and absolutely no other resources to support these overgrown populations when that oil is gone.

       I think these circumstance have driven Islam, well, nuts. Jihad is carried out almost entirely by young men and the Islamic oil nations have a vast supply of young men with no other job opportunities except service in Jihad. Their despair at the prospects of their societies must be great, and easily converted into aggressive rage. Plus, they are given huge inducements to believe that this employment is a holy mission, and fabulous promises of deferred pay in the form of early retirement to paradise and the consort of lusty virgins. As Peak Oil becomes more of a reality in the Middle East, I think these societies will only act crazier.

      Where are Russia and China on this? Well, Russia benefits whenever the glare of Islam is diverted from Russia's vast, fractious southern border with dozens of Islamic states and quasi-states, like Chechnya, poised to make trouble. Since Russia is one of the world's top oil producers (though past peak itself), and is sitting on quite a bit of natural gas, too, it doesn't have to worry about a cut-off of energy supplies from elsewhere. Russia would also like to recapture the geopolitical influence it enjoyed back in the Soviet days, and anything that weakens American authority and power in the Eastern Hemisphere leaves a vacuum that Russia can reoccupy. China benefits from Islamic antipathy to the West because the less oil is available to the West, the more there will be for oil-poor China. The problem for them, of course, is that an energy-strapped, impoverished America would no longer be buying all those Chinese-made salad shooters at the WalMart.

     An interesting sidelight to all this is the emergence here in the US of a virulent strain of antisemitism. A lot of it has shown up in the "Comments" section of my mirror site (Kunstler's blog on Typepad). It seems to me, that it's mostly emanating from what remains of the US political left, who have either run out of homegrown downtrodden groups to champion, or been disappointed with the results of their previous efforts. Lately, the frustrating impotence of the left to formulate a coherent opposition to Bush-style conservative Republicanism has led them into a craziness not unlike the craziness of Jihadist Islam. If all the Bush Republicans were suddenly vacuumed out of North America by a righteous cosmic force, the American left would probably start an American Jihad of their own against a host of imagined "class enemies" in the remaining population.

     I hasten to add that I am myself an opponent of American culture and polity in many of their current manifestations -- everything from Nascar to US Department of Agriculture subsidies, and plenty in between -- and yet I do not regard any victory of Islamic Jihad, whether in Iraq or Jordon or the subway tunnels of London or the skyscrapers of Manhattan, to be necessarily a good thing for the world.

     Nobody knows where the conflict in the Middle East is headed now. My own guess is that in the weeks to come Iran will find new ways to enlarge and aggravate the situation there. A problem at the heart of things not much discussed in the public arena is the fact that a virtually limitless supply of potent small arms and rockets is available from Iran to anyone who wants the stuff. This has implications for any effort to disarm Hezbollah or Hamas or al Qaeda or sixteen guys in a suburb of Dusseldorf. It remains to be seen whether Iran will try to produce more potent weapons. The West would be foolish to let that happen, but this dirty job, too, may be left to Israel and the US. I suspect that Iran will foment an oil crisis before that happens by shutting down the Straits of Hormuz by some means. When that happens, Mr. Ahmadinejad can put his head between his knees and kiss his ass goodbye.

Comments

[Anon]

"...they are terrified of their own Muslim immigrant populations..."

Where do you yanks pull these ideas from? Even if CNN or Fox says so it doesn't mean its the truth.

"When that happens, Mr. Ahmadinejad can put his head between his knees and kiss his ass goodbye."

Yeah sure what ever. Like the US economy and or military could bare yet another brown people bombing campaign.

[xamax]

The current rocket attacks on Israel will continue until Syria and Iran are given an ultimatum. Its in their interest to let the fighting continue.

Our problem is how do we confront an enemy that we rely upon to sell us the oil that we are so heavily addicted to ?

[carboncopy]

I'm sorry, but Kunstler is a complete and utter moron. Put away the crayons, Jimmy. You are up way past your bedtime.

[asoka]

This latest slaughter of innocents in Lebanon has only shown the futility of trying to use violence to stop an idea. Hezbollah has already won this encounter. Jihad cannot be stopped with bombs and tanks.

[sad truths]

Gee, I wonder why the US doesn't hold the geopolitical moral high ground any more.

Could it have something to do with shocking-and-aweing innocent brown civilians into hamburger?

[one Eye Open]

Maybe I just missed them but I don't believe that I have ever seen postings by Anon, xamax and carboncopy before. Yet they are the first three to respond to Jim's latest. How very strange.

[febo]

An even more amazing demonstration of paranoia from Mr. Kunstler. I start to suspect that much of the the "long emergency" idea is actually not much other the literary emanation of JHK other personal fears. Growing antisemitism in America ? That country is almost completely dominated by a BLATANT pro-Israeli media force, much more than here in Europe (and that's a lot to say). Does America has to nuke the Middle East just to keep the Zionist powers in place and to assure JHK a few more years of his relatively comfortable living as an aging american boomer ? Apparently so..

[Joe]

"Anti Semitism" ???

Hey! Arabs are semites too.

I suppose technically this makes the majority of Israelis anti-semitic.

But it's a crazy world. Anyone keeping a score card and making note of the facts is automatically labelled "anti-semitic". Being neutral or being pro-arab is being anti-semitic - go figure.

The fact that far fewer Israelis are dying than Lebanese or that the "kidnappings" as carried out by Hizbollah and Hamas are labelled "capture" when referring to the Israelis seems to escape notice in the mass media.

Note that Israel was doing a lot of captures and assassinations - sorry "targeted killings" of their own.

It's an abuse of language and an insult to our intelligence.

A veritable clusterfuck.

[deblonay]

I don'y know about Islam going nuts,but certainly Israel is having some sort of nervous breakdown.
Always given to violent responses to any threat,Israel has now isolated itself from much of the world.,by its terrible acts ...
Significabtly,the UN representative ,Egalund ,was scathingof Israel as was Blair"s asst-Foreign Minister,of the violence and over-reaction in Israels response.
Everyone of these Israel attacks drives masses of hapless civilians/arabs from their homes into camps where the hatreds will fester.
I think,Israel and the Jews are also victims of their past.
Every opponent is Adolf Hitler.!!Every threat is of another Holocaust!
This has also combined with an arrogance,which allows no criticism,and a desire to dominate..look at the US Congress.,which is Zionist occupied-territory!
An endless obsession with the Holocust(which no sensible person denies!) has left the Jews with nothing else to say to the world,and coloured every attitude.
Everything is about what the world owes them.The sense of anger is constant....
There is also a very racist quality to much Isreali/Jewish discourse. now ..The Chosen people indeed !
I would hate to be a citizen of an Arab state having to fear the Israeli Jackboot..or a Palestinian ,whose entire nation has become a sort of Concentration Camp ,ruled by Israeli Kommandants History it seems makes it own jokes ,sometimes a rather bleak humour..and when will Israelis enjoy a peaceful life...I think that can never be !!

.

[one Eye Open]

asoka sez:

"Jihad cannot be stopped with bombs and tanks."

We know asoka, champaigne and chocolates will do the trick. Belgian chocolates and of course, French champaigne.

[Weaseldog]

Nice comments JHK. I agree that population pressure is a factor.

On top of that, I don't think we should underestimate another factor.

People of Jewish and Islam faiths have been turning each other into newts at an alarming rate. Further their noses are growing and they are wearing pointy hats.

Some folks are making a killing selling broomsticks and potions supplies. Some might argue that these broomstick vendors are helping to drive all of this along, for their own personal gain.

[Weaseldog]

"An interesting sidelight to all this is the emergence here in the US of a virulent strain of antisemitism.- JHK

What a friggin lie. There has been very little anti-semitism.

Unless finding the idea of an Israeli soldier popping kids heads with sniper rifles repugnant, is a form of anti-semitism?

I think that being pro-jewish means you want to crush the heads of life muslim babies under your boots.

[one Eye Open]

deblonay sez: (Regarding the evil Jews)

"Everything is about what the world owes them"

Not really deb. All the Jews ask of the world is to be left alone. Pretty simple, simpleton.

[qwanta]

One thing missing from Kunstler's "Islamic Jihad" analysis in the last couple of blog posts is the role of the West in creating the monster. Over the years, the West has systematically suppressed all attempts at moderate, democratic movements (favored by the Arab western educated upper-middle class) that could pose a threat to the status quo of western-backed strong armed rulers.
The only avenue available then for disenfranchised Arab youth has been these "extremist" Islamic groups that are finally blowing up in the West's face. But to imply that there is something culturally/genetically wrong with "those people" - as Kunstler too often does - is hypocritical to say the least.

[one Eye Open]

wease sez:

"I think that being pro-jewish means you want to crush the heads of life muslim babies under your boots."

Hummm. That wouldn't be an anti-Semitic statement. Nah.

[Foobar]

Iran just needs to embargo oil production. Without firing a shot they we collapse the world economy. All the guided missiles in the world wouldn't magically turn the oil back on, and any invasion would be clear cut colonialism.

We're not going to win this war with bombs and uninformed rhetoric.

p.s. - The Palestinians are Semites.

[Dave]

Go to the Energy Bulletin today to read about the coming grain peak and think about its meaning for our huge world population. Though I do think JHK's is off the mark on many of his views regarding our foreign affairs the idea of peoples going nuts in response to the growing realization of the meaning of "overshoot" in a world undergoing energy decline is correct. Anybody looking for a seat at the Last Barrel Saloon better start making reservations early.

[one Eye Open]

deblonay sez:

"I think,Israel and the Jews are also victims of their past.
Every opponent is Adolf Hitler.!!Every threat is of another Holocaust!"

Not really deb. The Jews hold a very special place in their hearts for Mr. Hitler. As for another "Holocaust" well where do we begin. Their neighbors in the Palestinians are currrently headed by Hamas. Hamas has said that the state of Israel has no right to exist. Of course you are familiar with Hezbollah to the north. They have very warm and fuzzy feelings towards the Israelis.

You know I think you're right. Those silly Israelis are just paranoid.

[Foobar]

I went on vacation to Iceland a few years ago and visited Geyser. It's not very well roped off and anyone can go up and kill themselves pretty easily. Anyways, after it shot boiling hot water into the air, a woman kneeled down and touched the runoff water. She said, 'Ouch!' and then touched it again. Again, she said, 'Ouch!' She did this five or six times, each time with the same result.

Endlessly rehashing the argument about "the rights of Israel to defend itself" is getting pretty pointless. Every time they bomb the crap out of what Mr. Knustler refers to as "crazy Jihad ass" they breed more terrorism. Right or wrong is not the question. The question should be "Is this working?". After sixty years, it's clear the answer in no.

There will be no peace in the Middle East without a resolution to the question of Palestine.

[German Mike]

Recent job ads from the Daily Jhihad...
# Jihadist wanted, no experiences necessary, will train on job. Enjoy a short work week, early retirement and excellent retirement benefits incl. virgins galore. Call 1-800- HOLY-WAR
# Self-motivated martyr needed. Our business is just exploding. We offer an exciting opportunity in a dead end job. Call 1-800-EXPLODE, ask for Osama

[Osama]

Dear Jim,

You wrote:

"engaging the aggressive emnity of a restive and belligerent Islam"

From my perspective, it is Islam who is engaging the aggressive emnity of a restive and belligerent Christianity and Judaism who realize the 'peak resources' die has been cast and are now scrambling to control the Middle East's oil, water and arable land for themselves. Muslims do not maintain racialist apartheid colonies in other countries, but Judaists and Christo-Fascists do.

Put that in your pipe and smoke it!

Long live Hezbollah and Hamas!

Osama

[Parallel Unvierse]

"I hasten to add that I am myself an opponent of American culture and polity in many of their current manifestations"

And yet not of the extremely aggressive and assymetrical violence that is absolutely vital to their maintenance.

This is a strange psychopathology Mr. Kunstler displays . . .

[Mike]

Nice to see JHK call bullshit on the would-be leftists who see unremitting evil in anything the US/Israel/UK touches. Is antisemitism the full explanation? Of course not.

Hatred of Western Civilization, alone, explains that. But the fact that a smart Jewish guy like JHK adds his name and opinion to the small, but vocal minority here, willing to call out the Jew-haters (Vile Deblonay, plus silly voices from the peanut gallery like the always unhinged Lilli and Sheila, plus a few others who know who they are) is a good thing.

Kudos to you, Jim. If you've got a contingent of bad eggs among your readers, I admire your willingness to piss them off. They won't leave, but they'll know where their erstwhile guru stands in regard to their stupid opinions.

Otherwise, it's a complex issue and I largely agree with the tenor of this week's post. Let's see if JHK's readers can match his even-handed take on things. Based on the first 20 comments, it looks like the answer's a big, fat NO.

* * *

On to more pleasant pastures (and one's even nearer to me heart) . . . I'll roll on in with a topic or two more in the traditional CFN vein:

A brief snippet on gardening, fresh veggies, and entire weeks without power in America's largest city . . .

http://mikesneighborhood.blogspot.com/2006/07/weed-grows-in-queens-and-light-goes.html

. . . and my unsolicited thoughts on advertising & pop culture (a twain that's met):

http://mikesneighborhood.blogspot.com/2006/07/can-i-buy-your-magic-mop.html

Enjoy.

[Osama]

The criminal apartheid Israeli junta has no more right to exist than the criminal apartheid South African regime had the right to exist. Does this make me an anti-semite as well as an anti-white? Hardly!

Get a clue Kuntsler! Yer nothin' but a ignornat Muslim hater/basher who supports Judaist terrorism.

[Chris Welzenbach]

Mr. Kunstler:

Opposition to the murderous Israeli government should not be confused or conflated with antisemitism. There is not, nor can there ever be, justification for the random killing of women and children. I remind you that the women and children presently being butchered by the Israeli Air Force are semites.

I once enjoyed visiting your site because it offered a fresh dose of reality on Monday morning. Sadly, I shall not return there. Your unthinking allegiance to the Israeli cause has blinded you to that nation's war crimes. Holding war criminals accountable for their transgressions is not antisemitism; it is humanism, it is decency.

I hope some day you will recover your moral compass.

Sincerely,

Chris Welzenbach