The Antipodes

September 4, 2006
     A note of apology to readers:
     In haste to take off for New Zealand two weeks ago, I forgot to post a vacation notice in this blog-space. I appreciate the letters asking if I was okay. A few people wrote asking if I had resigned from blogging because of all the carping and hate mail I'd received on my Middle East commentaries. Two people reported a mythical phone conversation in which I supposedly said I was quitting. That was somebody's fantasy, I guess. Several idiots wrote to say, apropos of the Middle East, that I should "stick on-topic" to issues of energy and American lifestyles. Please note that my last book, The Long Emergency, contains extensive discussions of Middle East politics and history, and that I consider the subject completely on-topic in this blogspace. Anyway, it's Monday and I'm back. . . .

     We often forget, I think, how magical the blandishments of the high-energy life really are. The Digital Earth Conference organizers, led by former NASA and UN scientist Tim Foresman, were extremely kind to me, starting with business-class travel to Auckland. It is magical enough to be able to get to the South Pacific in one day. The last time I went down there, to Australia in the 90s, I sat in economy with the rest of the livestock, where, in a fugue of insomnia, I watched at least five Sandra Bullock movies end-to-end and got off the plane feeling like my brains were pulled out through my nose. But I did get there virtually overnight.

     This time, flying NZ Air business class out of the odious LAX, I had my own little slumber pod, kind of a tricked up Pullman berth with a built-in mini home entertainment center. We boarded late in the evening. The crew plied us with every conceivable luxury from steaming towels to roast lamb, fine sauvignon blanc, and mango ice cream. After that, I scrolled through a video library of classic films and settled in with Robert Altman's original 1970 M*A*S*H movie (Donald Southerland, Elliot Gould) on my personal LED screen while snuggled under a duvet in my little trundle bunk. Somewhere over the Pacific, perhaps between the Clipperton Fracture Zone and Pitcairn Island (and with the help of Ambien 10mg) I zonked out. I woke up hours later, feeling pretty alert, with dawn breaking as the crew hosed us down with caffeinated beverages and excellent croissant. An hour later we touched down in Auckland tra-la.

     The geography of New Zealand is stunning to an extreme, but Auckland is not a handsome city. What little architectural history it might have possessed had been mostly destroyed in a Post-WWII rampage of modernism and automobile retrofit. The few extant pre-war bungalow nighborhoods are cute (and supernaturally overpriced), but the newer districts of post-war ranch houses show almost as much genius for horrifying banality of design as their American counterparts. That said, the city center was far more active than any comparably-sized US city, full of shops, bistros, and bustling pedestrians, even at night. Imagine a place about the size of Nashville, only with some human life in it.

     There was quite a bit of recent waterfront gentrification in the form of condominium blocks, with bistro-lined promenades along the yachting slips, and much of it was admirable in scale and quality. However, like most cities in the "advanced" nations, Auckland seems to overlook the possibility that waterfront property might some day, not far off, have to be used again for maritime trade operations -- with all the gritty infrastructure of wharves, warehouses, and sailors' flophouses implied. Isolated as it is on the map, NZ in particular had better make some provision for this, as global energy scarcities develop, and air freight becomes less and less viable, and they have to get serious about shipping again.

     NZ's car dependency is right up there with the champs of the world (US, Canada, and Australia). In fact, the week before I arrived, the government announced that passenger rail service between Auckland and Wellington, the capital city, was about to be discontinued. I will refrain from remarking further how unbelievably dumb that is. Rush hour traffic in and out of Auckland is utter gridlock. After being in the city about a week, and chatting up some of its leading denizens, I would say that their awareness of the global energy situation was close to nil, and this could not be attributed to their geographical isolation. I could only infer that the psychology of previous investment was as entrenched there as it is here in the US, meaning, like us, they cannot face the fact that they have squandered their postwar wealth on the futureless furnishings of easy motoring and it has therefore become impossible for them to entertain the possibility of living otherwise.

     But in the spirit of enjoying the twilight of cheap oil, we rented a car to explore the countryside north of Auckland. Motor tourism is pretty much what the place is set up for. Like America, you cannot see the land any other way. What we found in this "Northland" was a spectacular rugged landscape lightly populated by US and European standards, with a climate like Northern California, gorgeous forests studded with giant tree ferns and other weird flora in the Jurrasic Park style, and countless miles of fantastically beautiful seacoast with utterly empty beaches.

      More to the point, perhaps, in those places suited for it, we found much more intensive agriculture than, say, the Eastern US. NZ has three million human beings in a land the size of Great Britain (which has about 60 million). Meanwhile, NZ has as many sheep as Britain has people, and quite a few cattle, too. Where sheep and cattle weren't grazing happily, you saw vineyards and sweet potato fields. The small towns of the region were uniformly hideous -- composed solely of industrial sheds at their centers plus the usual surrounding ranch houses. But, there was next to zero highway sprawl as we know it spilling outside of the towns and we are probably too close to a permanent global energy crisis for much to happen there now.

      For those of you wondering, I did not go to New Zealand to scope out a bolt-hole for the tough times ahead. I'm determined to stick around the US and watch the show. But NZ has obvious appeal. Imagine California, un-fucked-up.

     During the week we were away, almost nothing newsworthy emanated out of the US. I maintain that we're going to see interesting events unfold in the housing and financial markets this fall, and once the Labor Day holiday is behind us, the fun ought to begin.

Comments

[kd]

Welcome home, Jim, & thanks for the report on New Zealand. A place I've long been curious about.

[Brown Derby]

Hah! I knew you wouldn't 'resign' via a (drunken) phone call.

Welcome back!

[BigBill]

Jim, as always you're hilarious. It isn't often that we get the serious analysis with a humorous slant. Keep up the good work.

[Don Marti]

Do we need less port real estate, though, since container ships take less time to load and unload than the ships for which older ports were designed? San Francisco plus Oakland handle more freight now than pre-container, even though most of San Francisco's waterfront has been converted to residential, retail or recreational uses.

[Toilet IndaDesert]

I have a friend who did use NZ as his bolt-hole. He and his wife moved there last year (to Christchurch on the South Island). They like it just fine and bike most places. Most of their neighbors are clueless about the emerging emergency and as usual the car rules supreme! Suburbs abound. Supermarkets and restaurant menus are loaded with meat and dairy, with the usual casualties. Nationally NZ is at or near the top in per capita obesity, heart related illness and cancer. The place is indeed beautiful but it is utterly unprepared for what's most likely to unfold.

[Roger]

Business class indeed...now the truth comes out. You're as big an energy hog as most other Americans. I'm imagining that your "big business bertha" took the space that could have been occupied by three of us cattle. So you burned three times the precious oil that we cattle would, while stuffing your gut with roast lamb, fine sauvignon blanc, and mango ice cream. Here I sacrifice every day to conserve precious oil, and you gloat about how great it was that you didn't have to suffer like us cattle. You should be ashamed of yourself.

[Dodger]

Amory Lovins, whom you love to deconstruct if not mock, managed to 'real time interactive video link' at the conference. How come you did not opt for such given your views on the profligate use of hydrocarbons in the transportation realm?

[Dan]

JHK said: But in the spirit of enjoying the twilight of cheap oil, we rented a car to explore the countryside north of Auckland. Like America, you cannot see the land any other way.

Oh really? Peter Jackson used a helicopter to scout locations for the LOTR series. Just check out the extra feature on the DVD titled The Making of LOTR.

[rat bastard]

Anyway, it's Monday and I'm back. . . .

All we need is moron mike to come along pimping his drivel and the status quo will be in place.

[TL]

New Zealand is one place I would like to see for myself. My son recently married an Aussi, so I might get the opportunity sooner than I think.Think I will get away from auckland as soon as possible. It's to bad they are oblivious to the coming energy crisis. Good to have you back.

[C.M. Mayo]

Hey Jim, Glad you're back. Fascinating blog post.

[donna]

JHK,

Very interesting observations about NZ. It's one of the few places on the planet I'd regret not visiting come PO. I recall, years ago, I thought of emigrating to Australia, but they were so strict on their emigration policies I didn't meet the requirements. (I just barely don't meet them for Canada, either, much to my amazement--I checked it out after the Shrub stole the last election. Me and hundreds of other people--the site had taken loads of hits.) Wonder how hard it is to emigrate to NZ, now that you mentioned bolt-holes? I figure I'll stay in the Great Lakes area, myself, as I believe it's got a lot going for it--but I wonder if NZ and Australia are going to see floods of refugees themselves when TSHTF big time.

[Hermit]

Your pritty much on target as far at the landscape in N.Z. is concerned, but unless there has been one hell of a brain drain from there, your count of 3 million people is off by a little over a million. as I recall when I was there in 2002 the count was close to 4.2 million people. Been over there twice in the past decade, and am not surprised as you discribed it, that it hasn't changed much. Your certainly right on your discription of Auckland, i'm quite sure I wouldn't want to live in that town. You probably found that most of the people live on the north Island as it gets down right cold down south. A poster above wondered about the problems of imigrating, well money,(and lots of it) helps. It can be done but it's not easy, espically if you are in the older generation, I checked on it the last time over, and my age got me. Had enough money but they had enough old people, what they were looking for were younger educated ones. Being a school teacher would help a lot. I really like the place and if I could, would spend the rest of my days there if they would let me.

[donna]

Thanks for the info on emigrating to NZ, Hermit. Sounds similar to Australia's requirements, as I recall them. For example, they wanted =very= well-educated people, such as PhDs, and I think there was some age discrimination too.

[ross]

Hey Donna,

No to put a damper on the Great Lakes area, but have you seen this?

http://www.safehaven.com/article-5815.htm

Jerry,

My point about Liberalism is simple too, and it is this, that however you choose to define it, in your case, as a political creed, or in mine, as something more expansive such that Liberalism isn't just a political ideology, but is actually a philosophy of life and how to live it, Liberalism has always been a fragile entity that is at a stark disadvantage to other isms since it does not, like other well known isms, try to exclude or stamp out other isms.

It is almost certainly no accident, or so I choose to think, that Liberalism came into being right on the cusp of the Industrial Revolution. The world, in short, both needed and could afford a kinder, gentler, subtler and yet more complex philosophy. Alas, the industrial and post industrial revs are, as we know, running out of steam, and with that loss of energy, quaint Enlightenment spawn like Liberalism is likewise in retreat.

[Jan Dunlop]

Interesting post... seeing as I am based in Auckland! Would be interested in hearing more about the conference you just attended, I wanted to go but not at $1000 to attend.

You are right about most people in New Zealand being clueless about Peak Oil but at least one political party here is actively pushing on this issue, and I think awareness is a little higher than elsewhere according to Google trends: http://www.google.com/trends?q=peak+oil click on the regions tab.

Still, I think we are going to be in for as rough a ride as any other industrialized country.

[FarmGeek]

Great to hear your perspective on our little corner of the world Jim.

I've often thanked my luck for being born here. We're not all clueless about the implications of peak oil in NZ - some of us are ordering our finances, property and community ties in preparation for tougher times ahead. Despite some very real warning signs, (see my link) trying to get political traction for the issue is as difficult here as anywhere else I suspect. Start talking unavoidable societal and economic change and people look at you like you're from Mars.

Keep up the great work and if you ever need a bolt-hole in the middle of nowhere (globally speaking) look us up.

[Lori]

I'm glad you are back, I missed your column, and I am especially glad that you are okay. (I was worried you might have fallen ill.)

Lori

[kiwi]

Jim's quite correct about the beautiful landscapes of the North Island of N.Z. like a mixture of Nth. California and England.
The South Island,which I quess he didn't have time for,is more spectacular. The West Coast is rugged and a true wilderness...like Norway or southern Chile. On the easy coast its more like parts of Washington State or Oregon...and the sparse population and the quiet lifestyle makes it quite charming...not to mention the lovely seafood,local wines,and the abundance of everything
It's a bit like Australia's island state of Tasmania...also worth checking out for its wilderness and beauty . Glad you're back safely Jim !

[donna]

ross,

Thanks for the link. People should check it out--shows that Michigan's economy is currently in the toilet, with quite a few other states' economies not far behind, and predicts more to join us as the national economy slows. Yeah, we're in a serious mess here, have been for a while. Lot of it's to do with the auto industry taking it on the chin, of course.

A local energy expert, Dr. Martin Kushler, has been speaking at conferences about how our energy bill's crushing Michigan's economy, too. We get only 2% of our energy from renewables, while much of the rest of it comes from coal-fired plants, and we bring the coal in from Wyoming. Lots of dollars hemorrhaging out of the state for that, on top of the carbon emissions.

Even so, I feel Michigan's a good place to be in the face of PO. We have farmland (growing fruit, vegetables, grain), dairy farming, waterways including ocean access via the St. Lawrence Seaway, a bit of industry including local cheesemaking, winemaking, and so on. (And I believe they =could= convert the auto factories to facilities that manufacture components for wind turbines, for example). Alas, warnings against eating any of the fish caught in the Great Lakes have been issued a while ago, due to mercury contamination. We do have good hunting.

So I think we have a decent chance of supplying ourselves, at least, with food, come PO. Assuming there are enough old-time farmers left who can teach us how to do it, of course.

Serious downside: Cold winters. I fear our remaining timber (along with the rest of the planet's) will go fast as people scramble for firewood in the winter. It'll suck if that includes our cherry and apple orchards, but it probably will.

How do people think their own home states (or provinces, or whatever) will fare come PO?

[Jim Kunstler]

Question: "Amory Lovins, whom you love to deconstruct if not mock, managed to 'real time interactive video link' at the conference. How come you did not opt for such given your views on the profligate use of hydrocarbons in the transportation realm?"
Answer: Yes, Amory did that. Alas, mad bean-counter that he is,he tried to put across his notion that everything would be okay if only we could get better mileage out of our cars, or run them on something besides gasoline. He has no awarenness that car dependency itself is problematic. He also was not able to talk to anybody at the conference, not being there in the corporeal sense. It's true that I burned a lot of aviation fuel going there. But NZ Flight 6 would have gone across the Pacific with or without me.

[kiwi]

Re emigrating to NZ or Australia,for that matter...yes requirement are high...but who,in the present situation would just want just any US citizens!.Yes they prefer people with high educational standards,but unless they exercise some care they might get lots of dumb Americans like George Bush. Wow what a no-brainer of an immigrant!So just sensible ,intelligent Americans please(any chance of getting Al Gore?)

But we love to see US tourists.especially rich ones.

NZ hasn't really much in the way of energy resources,although there is natural gas.
Once we imported coal from Australia,but we have a lot of hydro power,a developing wind-power industry,and a very active volcanic region south of Auckland.
In a few small communities here , the heat from super-heated volcanic water has been utilized,and more interesting things like this may occur on a bigger scale(Iceland has done wonders in this way!)
There is much firewood ,and in the more remote areas people have always used wood-buring stoves.
In the far South Island,the winters are very cold indeed.
In some ways its a bit like some of the New England states ,in the far South Island.
Last night ,the P.M. Helen Clark had a showing of the Al Gore film on global warming at the Parliament Building for the Parliament...a similar event tonight I believe,will take place in Canberra for the Australian parliament!
So many people are informed of the problem,and the P.M is very alarmed, so expect some new initiatives in N.Z. It's small but resourcefull,and better able to act in such matter,than the USA which seems like it's in a kind of coma!!

[Abrey]

Somehow I doubt relocating to New Zealand, Canada or Michigan, all fine places, BTW, will make much of a difference. Personally, I think 'there's nowhere else to run': we should make the best of things wherever we are now, and work together with others, sharing knowledge and skills, to make the best of it.

An additional note: JHK's offhand comment at the end of his essay about housing and finance are not casual throwaway comments. Patrick.net's website, which I subscribe to, has lots of distressing news about the utter mess of the real estate industry, and what that portends for our economy in the coming year. A sampling of today's links:

BusinessWeek-Worst Practices
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_37/b4000007.htm

BusinessWeek-Nightmare Mortgages (excellent overview) http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_37/b4000001.htm

RealEstateJournal(WSJ)-Housing Slump Proves Painful
For Some Owners and Builders
http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/markettrends/20060824-corkery.html

Completely OT thought: what if people used the Internet to compare notes, and decided collectively that they were snookered, and in a bloc simply refused to pay?

[Nicholas Paredes]

The midwest has quite a few things going for it in the post-oil economy. Water! Quite the necessity, water is becoming the oil of the 21st century. Secondly, a range of industrial cities and outlying farmland, albeit with a removable layer of suburbs, connected by decaying, but rebuildable, rail lines.

Although I agree with most of the peak-oil assessments, I find that humanity, and liberalism/humanitarianism, has a way of surviving. I wouldn't put much weight in wealth or individualism, but with bad times those that group together rather than arm themselves have a way of thriving. I'm optimistic that Chicago will be fine. There is so much empty space here, that urbanizing will be a great opportunity.

[bud4wiser]

"and got off the plane feeling like my brains were pulled out through my nose."

Shucks, you can get the same effect by flying to Japan or Taiwan or other NON-exotic locales.......

I assume all your readers were supposed to be aware of this group, and that nothing noteworthy transpired during it's meeting.
http://www.digitalearth06.org.nz/#venue