A Hard Place

October 2, 2006
     I don't think it's accurate to call it a "war" anymore. It was one briefly back in 2003, and it may become a wider one again in the region. But for now the American situation in Iraq has degenerated into a dangerous, half-assed policing operation. We're not really fighting anyone, just getting in the way of factions fighting each other. A large part of our failure in this project has been our inability to get the electricity and water running properly. Any group of Americans might be equally pissed off and crazy after three years of that.

     President Bush has done a bad job of articulating the strategic purpose of our presence there. It's certainly not about "freedom." It is in human nature to prefer simple order to some abstract notion of freedom, and the Iraqis had simple order under Saddam. Anyway, the kind of trashy freedoms that Americans enjoy -- freedom to gamble in Las Vegas, freedom to buy pornography, freedom to enter into ruinous mortgage contracts -- might not seem so appealing to people in an Islamic society.

     The purpose of our Iraq project was to stabilize the Middle East by creating a successful buffer state between Iran and Pakistan to the east and the nations west of Iraq, especially Saudi Arabia. Why? To preserve the status quo in our oil deliveries from the region.

      Ironically, this last item is the only thing that we have succeeded in -- so far. And one of the reasons the Democratic opposition to Bush has been so unsuccessful is precisely because for all our failure over there, America has not yet experienced a cut-off of Middle East oil -- while anti-war media stars on the Left like Al Franken and Harry Shearer still get to hop in their cars and drive wherever they like without a second thought.

     The sentiment among the American public runs increasingly against our adventure in Iraq. But just as no politician has articulated our reason for being there, no one has expressed any coherent idea of what might happen if we had no military presence in the Middle East. I will try to outline a picture of this now.

     Possession of the largest reserve of the world's crucial resource, oil, has no doubt driven the people of the Middle East crazy. It has fed the resurgence of a militant Islam that seeks to punish and antagonize the Judeo-Christian West (and, call it whatever else you will, the 9/11 attack was certainly an act of antagonism). It has also caused populations to swell far beyond the carrying capacity of the region, with predictable results. But with most of the Middle East nations now at or past peak oil production -- including Iran and Saudi Arabia --we can expect only more dangerous behavior.

     Whatever else might motivate Iran, control of the adjoining southern Iraq oil fields centered around Basra, and the oil facilities offshore in the Persian Gulf, must be high on the list. And a US withdrawal from Iraq would certainly lead to that outcome. Next on Iran's list is the wish to drive a Shiite wedge westward across Iraq to Saudi Arabia, which contains a large Shia population of its own, conveniently occupying the Persian Gulf coastal region where most of Saudi Arabia's oil comes from. The purpose of this "Shiite wedge" would be to bring down the ruling Al Saud family and replace it with an Islamic fundamentalist government. All of these moves are predicated on Iran assuming nominal leadership among the Islamic nations of the region. And all of it would bode ill for American oil supplies.

     An American withdrawal from Iraq would leave US bases marooned in the landlocked backwaters of Asia -- with outposts in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. The purpose of these bases so far has been for staging operations from Afghanistan westward toward Iran, Iraq, and the Arabian peninsula. These bases happen to be next door to China, to the east. Would these tiny bases in Asia be used to stage operations against China in some future conflict? Good luck. They would last about five minutes.

     Pakistan has been off the radar screen of the American media for years. It is arguably the most dangerous state in the region. It has a thousand recent years of Muslim experience on top of perhaps 100,000 previous years of other influences. The people of Pakistan are not ethnically Arabs or Persians, yet they are even more violently anti-western. Pakistan is overpopulated to the extreme. It has no oil but owns at least twenty nuclear bombs. Very little stands between the current government of General Pervez Musharraf and either complete chaos or an Islamic fundamentalist government. If Musharraf fell, would the US try to insert itself in a meltdown of Pakistan? Good luck on that one. For the moment, only fear of a nuclear exchange with its neighbor, India, stands to modify or influence Pakistan's behavior.

     Let's say the US did withdraw from Iraq. This would leave us with bases in Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. These present a full frontal opposition to Iran, but would have meaning only if we went to war with that country. Such a war would probably leave the oil infrastructure of the Persian Gulf in utter ruin. Which is to say it would do nothing to advance America's strategic interest in maintaining the oil lifeline from the Middle East.

     Sooner or later America will lose its ability to influence the people and events in the Middle East, and at the same time we will probably lose access to the oil of the region. Yes, oil is a "fungible" resource that finds its way through markets. But the markets themselves will be badly destabilized by the economics of post-peak production. Do not expect on-time delivery.

     The US will withdraw back into the Western hemisphere. We have about 25 billion barrels of conventional crude left of our own. We currently use seven billion a year. Canada has been our largest source of oil imports. They will be left with little besides the tar sands of Alberta. Whatever else might be said of them, the tar sands will make for very expensive oil products. (Ditto the oil shale of the Rockies.) We will not be able to maintain our current living arrangements on these things, nor on coal liquefaction.

     The Canadian producers have substantial contracts with China for the products of the tar sands. I have no doubt the US will invoke the Monroe Doctrine to cancel those contracts. Expect a pissed off China. The same goes for Venezuela. Anyway, that nation is way past its production peak and the oil it has left is low quality heavy crude. Mexico is on the verge of an especially steep oil production decline. The low-hanging fruit of the Western hemisphere is gone. Colombia and Ecuador are not going to save American Happy Motoring. Don't get too excited about Chevron's "Jack" discovery in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Even at its most fantastical extrapolation, it would represent about two years of US oil consumption, and it would be expensive to a laughable extreme.

     The bottom line is that the only meaningful project for the US now is to turn its attention and remaining resources to the job of preparing for civilized life without oil. This is the topic that is absent from our political discourse on all sides and at all levels. The anti-war community is itself either lost in raptures of Bush-hatred or preoccupied with fantasies for running the interstate highways on used french-fry oil. We have to talk about things beyond just running our cars by other means.

     We are a profoundly unserious nation, for all our pretensions.

Comments

[anonymous]

what are you talking about?
"mission accomplished" in iraq.
don't you read the papers, watch tv, or even listen to our president?

[Xtraspatial]

Yeah, a lot of talk of "reducing our dependence on foreign oil." No talk of reducing our waste- and debt-producing economic model that relies on cheap oil as its source of energy. I do not believe the US can "rely" on domestic oil while maintaining our "non-negotiable way of life." Thus I--along with a growing number of others--am negotiating my own way of life vis-a-vis modern-day realities rather than with some quaint vision of the US in the post-war boom or turn-of-the-millenium hegemony.

To think that we can maintain our debt-ridden, class-imbalanced, profit-over-people economic system on hierarchy, domestic oil, biofuels, and more ecologically benign renewables is akin to believing an alcoholic can be cured by eschewing imported beer.

[Artie]

"The anti-war community is itself either lost in raptures of Bush-hatred or preoccupied with fantasies for running the interstate highways on used french-fry oil. We have to talk about things beyond just running our cars by other means."

Oh, please, Kunstler. The anti-war community is not as shallow as you want to imagine it. There are lots of people on the left and right who oppose the war. They are working on a wide variety of energy efficiency projects; green building, recycling, wind power, solar - passive and active. Residential energy efficiency alone has the potential to save enormous amounts of energy that is wasted right now.

Stop being such a narrow-minded, prissy Cassandra and do something positive for a change!

[david]

Thank you Mr. Kunstler for revisiting the domino theory.

That discredited logical analysis of 40 years ago did not propel the
United States to victory in Viet Nam and its sale will not find any
success now.

What Mr. Kunstler still cannot accept is the fact that our invasion of
Iraq strengthened Iranian influence by removing the existence of the
Iraqi state. If we had waited for Iran to take the southern Iraqi oil
fields by force, then a true coalition of NATO and Arab partners with
us could have repelled that advance successfully. Now mere influence
rather than force may suffice for Iran.

The harm that our Iraqi adventure inflicts upon us is twofold:

1. The moral damage from condoning torture and allowing the Bush
administration unlimited powers to detain and spy upon anyone
including United States citizens and legal residents.

2. The fiscal damage of financing this invasion and its consequences.

In practical terms, we are wasting significant resources including
petroleum and not securing anything beyond world contempt for our
behavior.

[Patrick]

Artie,
While JHK is usually--okay 99% of the time--a gloomy gus about America's energy future he does have a strong point.
It does not matter
-how many cars run on grease
-how much trash is recycled
-how many green buildings pop up
-how many wind turbines get built
-how many solar panels are out there

The basic problem with all of these is they are not mainstream habits. American habits are focused on consumption not conservation.

The secondary problem is even if they became mainstream habits TODAY, there isn't enough time or energy to make the switch without devasting effect to nearly everyone's lives.

Now, if you can figure out a way for today's Americans to conserve instead of consume there might be a way out of this mess. But previous generations didn't stop their consumption in the 1920s until the Great Depression hit--and that generation and their kids became such poor consumers (but great conservers) that even today advertisers tend to focus on the younger generations who didn't live in those times of need.

[netkat]

Once again, JHK delivers the type of bare-knuckle truth for which he is villified.

biodiesel fans will curse and bleat over today's post, I'm sure, but that won't change the reality staring us down.

nk

[Artie]

"It does not matter
-how many cars run on grease
-how much trash is recycled
-how many green buildings pop up
-how many wind turbines get built
-how many solar panels are out there

The basic problem with all of these is they are not mainstream habits. American habits are focused on consumption not conservation."

Kunstler's wrong and you're wrong too. It DOES matter how many of things proliferate around the country. All these things can become mainstream. Americans CAN practice conservation.

Stop trying to talk them out of it.

[kd]

All indications are that we will not be able to maintain our "non-negotiable lifestyle" indefinitely. Will we be able to have "civilized" life without oil? That's the question.

"Alternative" energy projects will probably, at best, minimize the, er, "changeover" -- & that perhaps for a minority.

If Jim is right, & that the U.S. will probably "withdraw back into the Western hesmisphere" (signaling an end to U.S. hegemony & the global flowering of America's capitalist empire), the result will be a seachange in our way of life. How we weather the change is the serious conversation that's NOT taking place.

We Americans tend to think of ourselves as a "practical" people -- with a pragmatic "hands on" approach to "problem solving." But actions, the kinds of actions we take, are determined by our thinking. That's why it remains important to examine our own words, ideals, & ideologies. This is happening, to some degree, on both the left & the right, but not nearly enough.

[grok]

Nice post JHK,
This year is the cross-over point for OPEC providing most of the exportable oil in the world. For every year here on out, OPEC's dominance will increase, controlling more and more of the total oil exports to the west. OPEC therefore will accrue economic and political strength versus the west. When Bush says the war will last a long long time, he meant that,"Because of our dependance on oil from the middle east and OPEC, we will have a military presence in the ME for the next 30 yeats, NO MATTER WHAT THE ECONOMIC COST."
(I tried to find that graph that shows OPEC's increasing dominance in the exportable oil market on theouldrum.com but alas I can not find it now).

Instead of cooperative power-switching and power down scenarios, we have a shrinking oil/hydrocarbon energy pie and all the oil/energy production players are seeking to monopolize these resources as best they can for maximum political. military and economic gain.

Wars in the ME or on any oil producing region, destroy production and lead to decreased overall output, yet wars in that region seem assured in the future. SA, the emirits, etc., all are vunerable. We may have peak geological oil. But post peak political oil is even more devastating to the west.

The neo-con's "plan" for the aftermath of the Iraq war was to get the fields pumping to 5 million barrels, before the war with So-Damn-Insane it was 3.2..now years later it's 2.3(the war and it's aftermath reduced production by one-third). Bush's confessionn in Woodward's new book that he would stay in Iraq(and be the prominent military force in the region)even if the only supporters of his policy were his dog and wife sums up his total strategy.

It sure seems like his admin is taking peak oil seriously in the military arena, yet he has yet to level with the american people. Dump the problem on the next president and the democrats deliver the bad news. Nobody likes the messanger with bad news. The next speech will not be the jimmy cater's "sweater" speech but one of thermal underwear and sleeping bags.

[grok]

I second Artie, there are good people doin' good things but the "peace movement" is miniscule.

Non-the-less support the Oct 5 massive walkout and protest against shrub..check the internet for local gatherings.

Yesterday a young man, 24, who is now awol from the military told of his tale of awakening at a meeting I attended. The senselessness and brutality of war. His witness to war crimes. His education on the battlefield and interrogation centers. He is facing a year in a military jail. He sees clearly now It gives me hope for new leadership in the future.

[Barry]

kd, grok - well spoken, gentlemen.

[Conor]

It seems to me that many of the commentors on this blog (and many in the anti-war movement in general) don't realize is that Kunstler is not advocating for what the US "should" do, but he is describing what US has to do now that we've gotten our selves into the Iraq mess. The title of the post gives that away. Yes not invading would have been much better and we can talk talk on and on about all the things we've done wrong or the things that would have happened if we hadn't invaded...But the reality of our situation is that removing Sadam positioned Iran as the dominant regional power, and the US cannot let Iran gain control over all the regions oil reserves. The people living in this country will be greatly harmed if that happens. We are pretty much screwed anyway when it comes to energy supply, but now our foreign and military policy has to be one that buys time to invent and build an alternative infrastructure here at home. What people don't seem to understand is that all previous energy source transition for the human race were evolitions...coal gradually replaced wood, oil gradually replace coal, but here at peak oil we are faced with an energy revolution, and we don't even have the replacement technology in place yet let alone invented.

[grok]

Ya Conner...our Halloween national budget is 10 times what we spend on all federal energy/conservation programs. I say make energy at least as important as scary masks on Oct. 31.

[grok]

The US will not "withdraw" from the ME...they will be kicked out sometime in the future. The Saudi's kicked us out when it became politically expedient.

[kd]

You're right in some respects, Conor, but I don't understand your tone.

You say that the U.S. "cannot" let Iran gain control over the region & that Americans would be "greatly harmed if that happens." Yet, in the next sentence, you say that the U.S is pretty much "screwed anyway when it comes to energy supply." Your overall viewpoint is unclear.

The fact is, the folks who visit this blog DO understand that all previous energy source transitions were, for the most part, "evolutions" & that we DO NOT have any vast-scale "replacement technology."

Will our continuing violent oil-grab in the Middle East buy us time to invent & implement a viable, vast-scale alternative to oil? That's the big question. Right now, it looks like the answer is No. There's money to made, delusions to be supported & indulged in, & power to be had. Just a few reasons why the War for Oil is so morally repugnant.

[Peter]

As America enters the most dangerous phase of its history, which is one of steep energy decline as the entire world turns against us, I am thankful that we have a smart, righteous man like George W Bush at the helm. We can rest assured that God will whisper the right advice in his ear.

Anything good on TV?

[grok]

Good posts kd

[grok]

How many US dead soldiers and dead Iraqi's per gallon does your SUV get?

[walt]

How delusional is JHK? Our purpose in Iraq was to "stablilize" the region between Iran and Pakistan and those regions to the west. Oh, dear.

Does this pompous gasbag even bother to follow the news? Is he so credulous that any Neocon spin is consumed for its high-protein objectivity? Earth to Kunstler: you guys have no credibility. You don't even have the fig leaf that hides that lack of credibility. You're utterly exposed. I'd advise you to stop pretending you're clothed except your delusion is too perfect. It would be like disabusing a jihadist about the 72 virgins idea.

[Peter]

What JHK actually said is: "The purpose of our Iraq project was to stabilize the Middle East by creating a successful buffer state between Iran and Pakistan and the nations west of Iraq, especially Saudi Arabia. Why? To preserve the status quo in our oil deliveries from the region."

Note the last sentence: "Why? To preserve the status quo in our oil deliveries from the region."

He's correct. We went into secure our oil supply lines.

[David Mathews]

"Possession of the largest reserve of the world's crucial resource, oil, has no doubt driven the people of the Middle East crazy."

Well, consumption of oil has driven the United States of America crazy, making us passive obese simpletons who really do believe that the Earth was created for our (that is, America's) gluttonous consumption.

I don't think that America is going to own Iraq for too much longer. I am certain that America will leave Iraq in the same dishonorable manner as it left Vietnam. The United States of America has lost the Iraq war, but if we stay in the Middle East for too much longer we're going to lose a much greater war and also our Superpower military and economy as well.

The United States of America is a dying empire. The United States of America is both overpopulated and also an obese overconsumer of the world's resources. For that reason, when the United States falls it will fall hard. Whereas the Soviet collapse was essentiallyu peaceful, America's collapse will bring anarchy and war to the streets of the United States.

As to the question of the Muslims cutting off America's oil supplies: I support that action. The Muslims own that oil and they can do whatever they wish to it. If they want to leave it in the ground, they should. Honestly, they really should leave it in the ground forever.

The impoverished nations of the world also should expel all of America's oil corporations and multinational corporations. The poor people of the world need to declare independence from the dying empire, otherwise they will suffer with us but also more than us -- because we'll let them die before Americans sacrifice any of our luxuries and excesses.

At this point, I believe that the United States of America is threatening the entire world with nuclear genocide. The United States military is the greatest threat to world peace, a much more serious danger than Osama ever posed.

The United States of America has a long history of genocide, both with and without WMDs. We also have thousands of nuclear weapons ready to kill millions of civilians in an instant. The United States of America has become the world's greatest terrorists and this is a shameful irony.

The Candians and Mexicans should break away from the American empire, too. Canadians should know that Americans would let the Canadians freeze to death before we would abandon our SUVs and McMansions. The Mexicans also ought to know that America has committed many crimes against their nation and given enough time, we will commit a lot more.

The United States of America is dying. That much is certain. Our government has chosen the path of national suicide by addictions to consumption and violence. At this point, our fate is sealed and there is no escape.

Enjoy these beautiful and peaceful days while they last. A day will come when the United States of America ceases to exist, and Americans will become impoverished, desperately poor people. Our way of life is going to end in a harsh and painful manner.

But don't blame the Muslims: Americans have destroyed the United States of America. Obese, lazy, self-indulgent, greedy America is dying.

[Alfred]

As usual, you rattle off the usual American platitudes about how the US is somehow trying to "stabalize" the Middle East. But somehow, the locals prefer instability. Please give us a break. What is going on in Iraq is very much a direct consequence of US behaviour over the past 30+ years.

If your thesis - about the death of suburbia and so on - is correct. American will one day fing out for themselves what it is like to have instability. Personally, I much prefer authoritarianism and stability to democracy plus instability. You are entitled to your own views on this matter.

The Russians have made clear over the past few years their views about this matter.

[grok]

Your right Walt. The fiasco in Iraq and the manifold blunders of the neo-cons and the elites of 'murica have seriously sapped our strength. These are galactic changes that hasten the undoing of our empire.

[RS]

Here's a way to get started on that conservation / crash landing preparation thing:

Change school curriculum for High schoolers in grades 9 - 12 to prepare for a fast changing world
Mandate classes for students in 9th - 12th grade that teach everything from basics of earth's ecosystems to Biointensive food growing practices.

Recommended texts for students: When Technology Fails, sustainable agriculture books

(We will need new textbooks for schoolteachers based on sound principles of earth's reality, complete with questions and tests for students. It would be based on both needed changes to adapt to the earth's changes.)

Are there any high school text books besides biology and science books that teach this?

Create awareness campaigns and encourage homeowners to buy products and services from local companies that can help convert parts of or their entire lawn(s) to food gardens (May need to lobby Homeowners Associations)
The city can create assistance and learning programs catered to biointensive food growing practices appropriate for geographical areas. For citizens without land access, create bond measures or taxes for land / home buy-back programs and fund the growth of community gardens in the city and surrounding suburbs.

Continue fostering growth of Farmers Markets and Community Supported Agriculture
This can also expand to work with local grocers / council national grocery chains to offer shelf space for local growers

Create "food preparation, storage and nutrition" classes for citizens
Based on seasonal growing patterns, what can be grown when, and how to keep your health and nutrition all year long.

Enact a temporary moratorium on evictions
In the event that a critical mass of homeowners were unable to make mortgage payments due to financial collapse, explore ways the city can ensure families are not simultaneously kicked to the curb, which would create chaos.

Add funds to Neighborhood Emergency Management Teams - tweaked for Peak Oil preparation
Currently, NETs are trained for emergency response to disasters such as a dam breaking, an earthquake, fires, terrorism, etc. It is suggested these NETs expand their knowledge and neighborhood preparation to "Neighbor building" and local food production using existing land such as lawns and available city land.

Help retail stores train to make "Emergency kits" ready to go
Having emergency kits ready to go for anxious shoppers will increase orderly conduct in stores in the event of a rush.

Expand business and residential waste and composting programs
Fostering composting programs to helps turn true food waste into useful, natural soil boosters to grow more food.

For businesses, change the laws so Grocers and Restaurants can legally pass to consumers what is currently deemed "Waste". This edible food can be used to help low income families needing food assistance.

Mandate energy efficiency inspections for homes and buildings
Create achievable standards. For businesses and citizens that can't afford to retrofit and upgrade to these standards - create neighborhood volunteer programs and create incentives to boost volunteer participation and assistance.

Offer consulting for businesses and citizens looking to prepare and make changes for Peak Oil
This can be paid for by citizens and businesses by passing a reasonable "Peak Oil Preparation" tax or diverting funds from other programs

Assess local food production abilities
Study and prepare plans to begin relying on food generated and transported within a 100 mile radius of the city. Adjust the radius depending on available farmland

Encourage neighborhood grown food swaps
Foster neighborhood food swaps based on produce grown within the city.

Create program for sustainable year round water usage for urban farming
Assuming increased usage due to increased urban farming. Create action plan including rainwater harvesting and efficiencies based on existing water system.

Create or expand neighborhood introduction programs
Foster programs that help neighbors get to know one another (like City Repair)

Continue to encourage use of public transportation, biking, walking, and carpooling
Cities can learn from other cities leading the charge with success (Portland, San Francisco, etc.)

Foster neighborhood co-op owned fueling stations
Pair Oregon farmers making alcohol in their own micro-refineries / distilleries with neighborhoods that purchase the fuel from their own alcohol fuel co-op. (Fact: Alcohol can be used as a fuel)

Offer free parking for new Scooter riders
Encourages commuters to shift to efficient modes of transport. Exclude scooters that do not meet California air emissions standards.

Offer "Earth Shift" support groups
Help people cope with change to help prevent a rise in crime, violence and drug use.

Create "Wisdom of the Elders" program
Like a "Big Brother / Big Sister" program, match eldery citizens that survived the Great Depression with today's youth leaders.

Create a re-use storage program
Instead of recycling, collect used plastic containers and glass from citizens and businesses normally setting them out on the curb. Clean out waste product from these containers and begin storing them in empty city owned wearhouses for future use and distribution to citizens.

Collaborative Neighborhood Unfolding
Using the principles outlined at www.livingneighborhoods.org among other science based living system studies, teach thought leaders how to build living neighborhoods.

Peak Oil Kits to hand out at the DMV
Cities can internally create or outsource the creation of a "Peak Oil Intro Kit" to hand out along with all DMV transactions. This allows the city to track who has received this information for measuring awareness and outreach statistics.

The city could create a requirement that all new and renewing licensed drivers be required to watch a video covering the basics of changes people need to consider, and how they can help reduce the problems.

Team up with Google.org to create Peak Oil preparedness Applications
Google has the ability to reach millions of Americans. Both business and consumer applications can be developed to assist consumers with "All-in-One" applications to address food / diet changes based on regions, business applications to assist common industry needs, etc.

[Weaseldog]

Fred on Everything.

Remember, this guy was a professional war correspont of the other breed. He's the kind that lived in grass huts, and tracked through jungles on foot to get his story.

His perspective differs quite a bit from those that get flown in, do a few interviews and fly out without mussing their hair.

http://www.fredoneverything.net/FOE_Frame_Column.htm