Energy Independence

November 13, 2007
     The day after the impressive Democratic election victory, Senate Majority Leader-to-Be Harry Reid declared that a top priority for the new congress would be policy leading to "energy independence" for America. The time of jubilee will certainly come, but not in the way Harry Reid thinks it will -- nor in the way the rest of the country imagines this idea.

     When politicians flog the term around -- "energy independence" -- they invariably mean that we will continue enjoying the happy motoring utopia by other means than imported oil (which makes up 70 percent of all the oil we burn). Get this: the day is not far off when, for one reason or another, the flow of imported oil to the US will cease. But when that day comes, we will not be running our shit the way we have been running it. That day will be the end of the interstate highways, Walt Disney World, and WalMart -- in short, the way of life we are fond of calling "non-negotiable."

      We are not going to run that shit on coal liquids or tar sand byproducts or oil shale distillates or ethanol or biodiesel, or second-hand french-fry oil. Nor on solar, wind, nuclear, or hydrogen. You can run things on that stuff, but not the biggies we run at their current scale. If the Democrats really want to get serious and act responsibly, they'd better not squander whatever is left of our credit and collective confidence in a futile campaign to keep this racket going. They'd better prepare the public to start living differently.

     Where to begin? They can start by recognizing that massive long-haul trucking of goods has to end and be replaced by improved, electrified rail plus water transport - with trucks used only for the final, local leg of the journey. To reach this point of recognition, the Democrats will have to overcome the entrenched interests of the trucking industry -- but, by now, most of the truck drivers in this country have been successfully converted into right-wing Republican zombies, so it might not be so difficult to overcome them. They will also have to overcome WalMart and its "warehouse on wheels" composed of thousands of 18-wheelers full of discount goodies incessantly in motion for "just-in-time" delivery to the big box outlets. And, of course, by "WalMart" I mean not only the company itself but the millions of Americans who think they can't live without it.

      Do the Democrats have the guts to go against this tide? My guess is probably not. But, get this, too: sooner rather than later, whether we like it or not, we're going to have to replace WalMart with an entirely different system for retail trade -- probably resembling the system of multi-layered local trade networks that were destroyed by WalMart. And the further off we put this task, the more difficult it's going to be. So, real political leadership will have to inform the public that the time has come to start making other arrangements.

      Instead of supporting the fiction that happy motoring can continue forever, the Democrats should create an "Apollo Project" to restore the US passenger rail system, too. (We hear a lot about an "Apollo Project" to develop a miracle fuel for our cars, but that ain't gonna happen and we'd be much better off devoting that investment to public transit.) This will baffle and piss off a lot of the public, but it is necessary if we are going to survive as an advanced civilization. Please notice, by the way, that I am not suggesting we deprive anyone of the right to drive a car, only give them the option of getting somewhere by train instead. And don't worry, the politicians will not have to do a thing to restrict automobile use -- circumstances will do it for them as the world plunges into a permanent oil crisis that does not go away.

     Another thing the Democrats can do with their new power is reorient the activities of the US Department of Agriculture -- and especially legislated cash subsidies -- away from the "agribusiness" Big Boys to small-scale, local farmers. We are silently and stealthily approaching a crisis situation with the American food supply. Most localities now only have a two or three-day food supply, and any number of crisis events in the offing could disrupt the three-thousand mile chains of frozen pizzas and Cheez Doodles that the public depends on for basic sustenance. We desperately need to reactivate what's left of the productive land around our towns and cities, and to repopulate it with people who can grow real food.

      The Democrats will have to contend with the imminent cratering of suburbia whether they like it or not. The "housing bubble" is the first leg down for a development pattern that has no future. What's out there now is a vast over-supply of exactly the kind of houses in the kinds of places that will not have value in an energy-scarcer world. The overbuilding of tract houses is a tragedy caused by reckless and irresponsible behavior in the lending industry and in the government officials who regulate interest rates and the credit supply. The investments are already lost, and the individual carnage is going to be extreme, but the depth of the problem will reveal itself slowly for two reasons: 1.) both homeowners and realtors will desperately try to maintain the fiction that these properties still have high value, and 2.) individuals who are in trouble with their mortgage payments will never reveal their dire situation to their friends and neighbors because it is too humiliating. The news about default and re-po will only arrive with the moving vans (if the individuals can afford to hire them).

     The collapse of suburbia will be the Democrats chief inheritance from the "free-market" economically neo-liberal Republicans who were too busy money grubbing at all levels to notice that there was such a thing as the future. The tragedy of suburbia will finish off whatever is left of Reagan-Bush1-Bush2 Republicanism -- although the truth is that Bill Clinton did as much to promote this way of life, indeed, to turn suburban development into a new basis for the US economy when manufacturing crapped out.

     The nation as a whole -- however it reconfigures itself politically in the aftermath of this fiasco -- is going to have to come to grips with a lot of hard truths. One will be that "energy independence" means a whole different scale and system for daily life, not just "new and innovative" fuels for cars. As long as we are stuck in a foolish national wish-fest aimed at keeping all the cars running and propping up all the trappings of car-dependency, we will remain lost in a wilderness of our own making. And whoever the next president of the US turns out to be, whether a Democrat or the leader of a party that has not yet coalesced, will have all that he-or-she can do to keep this nation from completely falling to pieces.

Comments

[scott]

Just cutting out the varieties of products we enjoy would reduce energy consumption tremendously. For example, we routinely haul potatoes from potato country in Maine to potato country in Wash. State and vice-versa.

It is nice to walk into a grocery store and be able to purchase anything under the sun to eat. I wonder if corporations will attempt to regionalize available products or maintain the status quo of bigger and better and more of it 'til the bitter end?

[Kevin]

"If the Democrats really want to get serious and act responsibly, they'd better not squander whatever is left of our credit and collective confidence in a futile campaign to keep this racket going. They'd better prepare the public to start living differently."

Rush Limbaugh and Fox News and other members of the Republican propogandists would use this to convince us to vote Republican in the future. I can hear them now..."Ladies and gentlemen the drive-by liberal media paints a bad picture to get you to vote for their candidate. I am here to tell you with talent on loan from god, liberals don't want you to think you have it good, they only want you to believe in their sicko views on the world. There is no oil shortage, don't be fooled by the liberal media for one second."

When this is repeated on a daily basis to people losing everything from their houses to their standing in society is when we get the cornpone nazi leadership Mr. Kunstler often talks about.

My two cents...I think we are about 12 years away from this scenario happening, when generation X starts to become old enough to hold leadership positions, the last generation that lived at some point in their life in traditional communities dies off, and the real issues Mr. Kunstler talks about with peak oil really start to take hold.

[kevin_m]

On the plus side, in about ten or so years we won't have to worry about the "obseity epidemic." Bye-bye Big Mac (sniff). Bye bye cheap Supersize fries. Bye bye quarter-pounder.

And Scott is right. It is nice to walk into a supermarket and buy those offseason strawberries and apples. Oh well. You've got to take the good with the bad I guess.

[Stephen B]

If nothing else, it will be interesting to watch the constant morphing in society as we go forward.

Scott, No doubt that at first, a few changes like smaller cars, a few carpools formed, a bit of insulation stuck in the attic will do...for a while....a couple of years maybe. But then, that won't be enough. We'll need to drop the clothes dryer, cut down the size of the house, give up the car 2 days a week, grow some food in town. Later on, the car goes completely. The house had better have substantial solar gain, and your brother's family has moved in with you...

This whole thing will be a constant tightening of the screws. Just when people think they've done enough to relieve the pressure of fossil energy depletion, they'll have to give up something else, do something more.

If I have to live in a society growing less prosperous every year as I myself age, I'll at least have the consolation prize of at least knowing why and how this whole thing is coming about.....something I fear all too many others may never truly comprehend.

[Patrick]

Just a little travel trend I've noticed.
I travel a lot for work and I've started to notice a major increase in rail traffic. I usually take the Amtrak Acela from BOS or PROV to NYC and when I first started taking it about 3 or 4 years ago, the train was fairly empty. Usually, I'd be sharing one of those 4 person table seats with about 1 other person. I took the Acela from PROV to PHIL this past week and the train was packed both ways, the 4 person tables all had either 3 or even 4 people at them--and the trains were afternoon trains not the rush hour ones. Not only that, but most of the people I talked to on this trip were getting out of the airplane for travel and had switched to the train--at least for the BOS-NYC/PHIL route. Just an anecdotal note, but either people are getting tired of the TSA security silliness at the airports (10 3 oz bottles is okay, but not 1 3.4 oz bottle--c'mon morons) or rail traffic is becoming more popular.
Not sure if the Northeast rail corridor can be emulated in other parts of the country, but maybe other people have similar rail traffic trends they've noticed? I'd be happy to hear them.

[Robert of the Rohirrim]

Living arrangements will continue to be unstable until our society can come to grips with the fact that people would stop moving around so much (white flight) if the commies would stop forcing them to admit undesirables into their living spaces. There are plenty of people who would set up the exact communities you dream of, but the troublemakers always come along and ruin it for everyone. So, the Whites flee. Rinse, repeat.

[bulldozer]

it is interesting. Ireland uses 33 percent less Oil per Person than we do, and 2/5ths the electricity per person. Their GDP per capita is about 42,000, the same as OURS. What is the main difference? An insignificant portion of their trade is with third world nations, Japan, and China.

If the United States were to reduce its oil use by 1/3, we wouldn't need any oil from the middle east or east Africa. Besides, China and India will soon be able to pay more for it than we do.

Critics will say "Would you rather go back to the days of the horse and buggy?". That is a very good analogy. In the days of the Horse and Buggies, most people did not have horses or buggies. Horses and Buggies were for Farmers, Ranchers, Cabbies, Teamsters, and the Military. Professions and the urban working class didn't have horses or buggies.

It is sad that "white flight" occurs. But is more a function of "green flight". Only in America is there such a great disparity between the behavior of the upper classes and the behavior of the lower classes, in terms of public behavior. It's impossible to fight crime, because the upper classes are too crippled by all the laws and standards they teach themselves to make themselves believe they deserve higher paychecks: as a result everyone is pretty much mindless and incapable of using judgement or authority.

[gene]

Another good one Jim. Incrediable how this insanity continues. Sorry to repeat myself but just simply having a hard time accepting the fact that "Joe and Susie stupid shit face, fat ass, don't give a dam, lets have another baby and buy a bigger house" continues to suck oxygen and is now preparing for the x-mas fiasco. What a mess this planet is in. Thank God for my daily dose of ativan. Who needs a phrophet anymore to reveal the future, those who are paying attention and understand (so few) can clearly see it coming. Soon it will be time to been over and smile because its coming and I am(almost) totally convinced their is nothing mankind can do to stop this (all consuming) monster.

[David]

I thought Jim's post today was very good, it got back to basics. I do not envy the next 2 to 3 Presidents, whoever he (or she, doubtfully) might be. Who would want to be POTUS WTSHTF? Who wants to step forward as the "Chicken Little Candidate" and tell the truth? Only an enlightened few realize the severity of the problems we face, and I don't think any of them are in national politics. You would think at least someone in Congress at this time would propose reinvigorating our national railroad system. I talked my mom into taking the train recently to visit her relatives, she took my advice and she had a good time. (Finally found a copy of "The Geography of Nowhere" this past weekend at Book Soup in Hollywood, had been looking for it all year).

[ross]

What JHK correctly prescribes as neccessary for the long term health of the nation won't happen now because Congress does not lead. I submit as evidence the poll at the link below. Notice how the agenda of the new Congressional leadership is precisely in accordance with the poll. It reflects a condition that means Kevin is probably right when he offers that it will be another generation, (half, I say) before the one governing now is replaced. The Neo-Con's have been discredited and the new leadership in Congress will be when they don't take the neccessary steps to turn the ship of state in a different direction.

But truly we can't lay the incipient failure to competently lead entirely at the feet of elected officials. If the people demanded some or all of what JHK deems essential it would probably be in the pipeline yesterday, but our people are somewhat addled and unsophisticated (I believe the term is "dumbed down") about our nation's most precarious predicament, and that is down to their own frivolity, government corruption and a media that, like the government, is bought and paid for by interests that have no interest in serving the public, but rather distracting, misinforming and brainwashing.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/20061111-1533-usa-elections-poll.html

[brian]

Just this week here in Britain,a number of experts have seen low-costs air-travel as unsustainable and very damaging to the environment too.
This will have to go as the energy/oil crisis mounts. In the csae of most European countries there are excellent rail services ,with many super-fast electric trains. There are hardly any diesel trains left except on small branch lines
Many kinds of fares/tickets also encourage families to use the railways for holiday travel,
Unthinkable in the USA!
As well there are major rail routes like the London to Paris and Bruselles/Amsterdam service using the Channel Tunnel..less than three hours from London to Paris non-stop,and many trains,running all day...in the morning there are 8 trains each way running like a commuter service between those cities, It is possible,and if the US could give up its addiction to armaments , a new world is possible!!
It already exists in Europe and Japan

[kd]

"..."energy independence" means a whole different scale and system for daily life, not just "new and innovative" fuels for cars."

Well & truly said, Jum.

*

Kevin makes an interesting point when he suggests that voices calling for change away from our energy consumption fest (or feast) could be drowned out by Republican propagandists screaming "The loony liberals don't want you to have it good! They want to impose their hippie ideas on you & take away your God-given right to drive!"

[asoka]

Interesting how people say TSHTF in the next generation, or in twelve years, etc.

How about this coming Thursday? All it would take is one successful Al Qaeda attack in Saudi Arabia on our principal supply of petroleum. We could be days away from a downward tailspin.

[Frank]

David asks:

"Who would want to be POTUS WTSHTF?"

Interesting question, but just take a brief look at history. FDR, Eisenhower, Churchill and many like them came to power in difficult situations. Adversity can produce strong leaders (and conversely, prosperity can produce Reagans, Clintons and Bushes) so our best hope might be that someone worthwhile steps forward. Or that adversity might break the collective delusion and allow us to recognize someone worthwhile.

[Maria]

You raise some very good points here. Unfortunately, I'm not sure people will listen. We have recycling, and the city here encourages people to insulate and winterize their houses better, and to use the new, energy-saving lightbulbs, and while all that is helpful, it just isn't enough. People don't listen to what they don't want to hear.

The sad fact is, until the hammer falls, the majority of people won't care. They're too busy swilling in the mire for the profit of them and theirs. Or they don't think that they, personally, have to do anything. After all, what difference could one person/family make?

I really like the idea of improved train service (and using trains rather than trucks for shipping), and the increased use of rivers for shipping. <--disclaimer: not just because I live next to the Mississippi river, either. Think of how local trucking businesses could help a local economy!

[Mike]

Jim's post certainly makes sense in the big picture. In the "where are we all going?" sense.

But there's NO WAY any of this is happening at the federal government/big ticket feeding trough political level. Ain't happening.

That's not to say people shouldn't focus on these things in their own lives, in their communities, in their local governments. That sort of grass roots change is the only way it can ever work at the larger level.

If a grass-roots consciousness gets big enough, market researchers will pick it up. And then advertisers, then programmers, then news outlets, and finally big government.

Of course by then, the message'll have been watered-down significantly, but it'll be a start. If we all do our little part, the change'll come that little bit sooner.

Or maybe I'm just the cock-eyed optimist and I'm outta my mind! Who knows?

[Robert of the Rohirrim]

Bulldozer said:
"It is sad that white flight occurs. But is more a function of green flight."

This is the kind of liberal blindness that creates current crises like the one we are in now. Because of this communist/multiculti belief that all people are the same (except for Whites, who are greedy and hateful), Whites are in constant flight. We saw this start in the glorious 60's with the diefication of that lying, thieving, womanizing commie, MLK. Whites have been on the move ever since, ever trying to get away from the horrific, murderous crime brought by the invaders, who target Whties 50-1 for violent crime and exploitation.

Any social planner that preaches the same old tired communist lies about Whites being greedy, hateful, etc., should not be listened to. For he's either a fool or a liar or both. The devil take him and his commie religion.

[Laura Louzader]

How do you expect Joe & Susie Suburban to be able to swallow the truth when you can't get the 'progressive', 'liberal' denizens of Chicago's affluent, well-educated, densely populated, and cosmopolitan North Lakefront to recognize it?

You will never generate so much hostility as when you suggest to the denizens of Rogers Park or Edgewater or even crowded Lakeview that the city should rebuilding and augmenting it's battered public transit and should be making life less comfortable for cars, not more.

If our most educated, cosmopolitan, and 'progressive' citizens, in the nation's most advanced cities, won't part with their cars or Walmart, what do you expect of people who are stuck in places where there really are no alternatives?

[kd]

We seem to have had a little of everything here at CFN -- fascists, capitalists, communists, feminists, Zionists, atheists, anarchists -- & now with Robert of the R., a white supremacist. Had to happen, eventually, I guess.

[karin (a.k.a.Regular Reader)]

"What's out there now is a vast over-supply of exactly the kind of houses in the kinds of places that will not have value...The news about default and re-po will only arrive with the moving vans..."

The latest housing development in 'Mytown, USA' is located in a flood plain and was started AFTER the latest Wal-Mart was built on their side of town. The design is similar to a REAL house because it has brick on the front 3 sides, a high-pitched roof, a two-car garage (which takes up HALF the floor plan I kid you not) and MAYBE four feet between the houses (I think the minimum code requirement is taken advantage of...whatever that is). I have no idea what they're going for, but the ones that are DONE are sold. Which is kind of REALLY stupid when the people could have rent/bought a nicer OLDER house in town with a HUGE yard for maybe half the price of the new houses which are the same size. Would you want to live two blocks down from a correctional facility, with a closet-sized backyard and hard-hat contruction workers with their saws and hammers next door? Having no idea who's going to move in (if anybody) 4 feet next to you?

The signs come way before the moving vans or the garage sale. The signs come when you count how many divorces have occured in the past week on the same block because the guy just couldn't handle all the pressures of maintaining the appearance of wealth/happiness for his significant other and their 2.3 kids. The guy moves in with his lover who happens to be well-situated in life (oh how attractive!) and the wife moves in with her parents in their house that she grew up in, so there's plenty of room for everybody and free babysitting. It's like watching Desperate Housewives...art imitates life imitates fiction...whatever.

Being a southern 'Mytown' means it's first and foremost a military town. So, most of the economy is built on income from the AFB. So, most of the people buying the NEW houses are single/married TSGT/SGT who don't want to live too far in town. The new housing development is a straight shot 5 minute commute to the base. Most of the low-income housing in town are old military housing developments.

[steve duncan]

I sometimes wonder if we'd spent the 300>500 billion$$ we've blown on Iraq/Afghanistan on energy independence instead how much further along we'd be on that goal? Then it occurs whether it's war or a national project like energy most of the funds would be siphoned off by thugs and cronies in the pockets of whatever administration is in power (see Halliburton or Enron) and the project goals never achieved. I'm really not even sure why there is a Treasury Department anymore. The government should just instruct corporations to send their employee and corporate tax monies directly to the top 50 or so defense/construction/energy/technology firms aligned with whatever President is currently in power. It'd save a lot of time and be a much more honest way to allocate resources.

[Kevin]

"Interesting how people say TSHTF in the next generation, or in twelve years, etc."

I say that because I think the next candidates for president are already set up, their political and business connections are made, etc.

My point was that the "corn pone nazi", which I think is the perfect phrase to describe future leadership, will rear its head in approximately 12 years. To me, this is when shit really hits the fan and alot of ideas and laws to appease self-centered idiots will take hold....for example make laws that the oil companies (or any industry) have to pay reparations to everyone for making too much profit.

I am 33 years old, born in 1973, and in about 10-15 years my generation will be old enough to hold real leadership positions. Here are some things to keep in mind about my generation:

-The oil crisis of the 1970s never really effected us
-Wal Mart and it's predecessor K-Mart has always been around to provide endless amounts of cheap junk
-Political correctness and the idea of a global community has been shoved down our throat since day one
-we were born after Vietnam
-cable television has been a HUGE presence in our life (I remember having HBO at age 6 in our house)
-the idea of community values have been totally forgotten in favor of family (or individual) values

So what I am saying is many of these things that have always been in our lives are those things that will be taken down by peak oil issues. Leadership will be voted into place who will promise to bring back the good old '90s. The electorate will be made up of people who were educated on too much TV and in large schools where everyone gets an A.

My two cents...I think Arnold Schwarzenegger may be the prototype of the candidate we will end up with. Somebody who is a celebrity with wide recognition right now will be this president. The electorate will think they are really the characters that they saw in a movie. Nothing against these individuals but just throwing this out there for effect, be prepared for president Derek Jeter or president Ben Affleck or something like that.

[Weaseldog]

"I wonder if corporations will attempt to regionalize available products or maintain the status quo of bigger and better and more of it 'til the bitter end?" - Scott

Corporations as we know them are dependant on cheap travel and cheap energy.

Its no accident that we didn't start seeing corporations take root as large stable entities until the railroads began to cover the landscape. Only then did it become practical for a corporation to have a headquarters in a far off land.

'Just In Time Inventories' and 'Corporate Headquarters' are two concepts that work only because transportation and communication are fast and cheap.

Without cheap and fast transportation, outlets will see constant shortages of goods. Shortages lead to theft and black markets. This leads to rising costs for remote administration. Local administrations can respond to problems faster and cheaper.

As costs rise, our major corporations will tihhten the legal screws for smaller businesses to operate. They'll push for legislation that makes it impossible for smaller entities to compete. They've been doing this for decades to destroy small farmers and small producers. And now it seems normal that a person needs to sink a small fortune into a small business, just to meet federal regulations.

In other countries, small shops can be started on less capital, thus making them attractive for overseas investments. This makes foriegn shops more competitive than the same size shops in the US.

The push has been to eliminate small business in the US and make every aspect of our lives a corporate enterprise, with a small group of people, owners of it all.

This effort will continue, but as we slide down the slope into the peak oil crevasse, draconian measures will have to be enacted in order for them to maintain their position, as it becomes nearly impossible for them to operate.

Protectionist laws for corporations will lead to unnecesary events that are similar in scope, to the Potato Famine in Ireland.

If the mega corporations can't deliver and work to stop competition, then people will go without.

the black market in Russia thrived during Perestroika, because the government was unable to deal with all of the problems it was facing. When a corporation has to deal with diffictulies in every stage of delivery and payment, for every order, things will slow down and costs will rise. Boxcars full of food will rot on the tracks, while twenty miles away, children go to bed hungry.

[Teabow]

I gotta quit reading this column. It's too freaking depressing. (Even though I agree that what he says will, no doubt, come to pass.

[Rebecca]

I liked Kevin and Frank's comments. As Frank pointed out, hard times make good leaders. Soft times make decent to poor leaders. These can even be one and the same person depending on changing circumstances; a person's different potentials are brought out by different situations.
As far as the Right winning a campaign against liberals urging conservation; that's all ready been done. Remember Carter's sweater specch? Reagan won on the promise that "Americans will never again have to cold in the winter or hot in the summer". As if we don't live on this planet or something, grrr.