The Time Remaining

November 6, 2007
     If an American political party was ever in for an ass-kicking, it's the current incarnation of the Republicans. Everyone has finally turned on them, even their neo-con war strategists -- Richard Perle and Company -- who told a Vanity Fair reporter last week that George Bush didn't know how to run a war that seemed like a good idea before they handed it over to him.

     Meanwhile, just days before the election, televangelist Republican cheerleader Ted Haggard gets nailed for consorting with a male prostitute while on crystal meth -- taking up the baton in the GOP relay-race of grifters and pervert-hypocrits, Tom Delay, Jack Abramoff, Duke Cunningham, Bob Ney, Mark Foley, David Safavian, et al -- and the mid-term vote begins to look a little gnarly for the family values crowd.

      Let's say the Democrats win control of at least one house of congress and possibly two. Are they going to shut down the project in Iraq? I doubt it. Badly as it has worked out, the alternative of withdrawing the US military presence there may be worse. Anyway, we'd still be sticking around the Middle East -- in Qatar and Kuwait and a few other places -- and we'd have to stand on the sidelines and watch Iran gobble up the substantial oil resources around the Tigris / Euphrates delta region. What would be the remedy for that? Invade Iraq all over again?

     I confess, what bugs me about my Democrats is that they seem to think we can just duck out of the contest for Middle East oil and keep enjoying the happy motoring fiesta -- which, by the way, is not just the way we live in this country but also the basis of our economy, when you sweep aside all the bullshit. Contrary to what a lot of utopian Democrats wish, it will never be prime-time for ethanol, bio-diesel, hydrogen, or twenty other nominees as replacements for gasoline -- at least not the way we run things now. Driving a Prius might induce raptures of eco-moral superiority, but changing the zoning laws would produce a better outcome -- and that's just too hard.

      It would be nice if the Democrats put forward some concrete policy ideas for moving this society away from extreme car dependence and continued suburban sprawl-building -- for instance, a federal project to repair the passenger rail system that was once the envy of the world and is now so fucked up that the Bolivians would be ashamed of it -- but the Democrats have been too brain-dead, too chicken, and too distracted by sex-and-race politics to actually lead the American public. The only change they have really beat the drum for is gay marriage, which more than a few people of sound mind regard as something that will not necessarily make the USA a better place.

     The big fear about a Democratic-controlled congress is that, in the absence of any good ideas for transitioning the nation for a post-oil existence, they will put all their new power behind a grand inquisition against their defeated rivals. Ever since the Watergate hearings, we've gotten into the habit of thinking that all tragic political events can be corrected or compensated for by holding investigations. This is based on the seemingly logical idea that if we could only find out what went wrong with some affair -- Iran-contra, Nine-Eleven, WMDs in Iraq -- then we wouldn't repeat the mistake. But history doesn't really repeat (though it sometimes rhymes, thank you Mark Twain). And so our investigation mania had become as self-defeating and addictive as our behavior around automobiles.

     Reality never did get much traction among the candidates in this election season. Neither party truly recognizes the implications of our energy predicament, or wants to talk about it. It will take a shock to the system, and there are several in the offing. The complex arrangements we depend on these days will eventually respond to reality even if we don't. I nominate the financial system as the one most likely to seize up first, since it is burdened with extraordinary perversities producing unprecedented distortions in the basic matter of what constitutes value. The oil markets have enjoyed a season of supernatural stability, but the home furnaces are now running and the inventory sedulously built up before election day is starting to draw down again. There are still nearly two months of 2006 left and a lot can still happen.

     The fate of George W. Bush in the twilight of his tenure might invoke spasms of nausea in the casual observer. His own party will use him as a dumpster for their recriminations and regrets. He's sure to face some additional horrific crises in the more than two years left. The economic wreckage that he's leaving behind will become manifest to everybody as a maelstrom of bad credit sucks houses and family futures into an abyss of insolvency. His previously loyal minions will begin to inform the magazine reporters -- a la Richard Perle and David Frum -- of all his odd little personality deficiencies, like an inability to pay attention. If he's lucky, he'll get a blow-job in the vicinity of the oval office and nobody will ever hear about it.
    But remember this: history is not going to stop because Nancy Pelosi is having a bad hair day.

Comments

[jonny quest]

Why does it seem that all the recent repub peccadillos involve gay sex? Were the rumors about Bush and that male prostitute visiting the white house on a regular basis a while back really true?

As to the energy issue, JHK, no one will ever get elected on the chicken little platform until the sky has already fallen.

And finally addressing your infrastructure comment, rebuilding the railroads, check out the SPP (security and prosperity partnership) initiative. There'll be plenty of infrastructure build out up the middle of the country to facilitate the further destruction of the middle class in this country.

[kd]

Good morning, Jim.

Yes, it would nice if ANY so-called "leader" put forward some concrete policy ideas toward moving this society away from total car/truck/plane dependence and suburban sprawl building.

As for the "project" in Iraq, I certainly understand your point of asking how can we "duck out" of the contest for Middle East oil & still expect to enjoy the happy motoring/shopping/growth fiesta.

But if the Long Emergency is truly inevitable (the only questions being: when will it begin in ernest, & how will we weather it), why continue to send troops to kill & die? I know it seems like a naive question. People are much more willing to kill & die for ideals, hope, or the "pragmatic" notion that we must fight for things to stay the way they are, even if perhaps "just long enough to figure out some workable alternatives."

Perhaps we're faced with the drug addicts choice: ween ourselves gradually off the drug, or go "cold turkey." Of course, a total collapse of health &/or a brush with death is another "choice" we, as addicts, could make.

[kd]

The more things change...

http://www.thememoryhole.org/war/debs-speech.htm

The beat goes on...

http://www.nthposition.com/thewaragainst.php

[Jerry Johnson]

kd, Fiasco is easily the best book about Iraq to date.... I finished a second reading a couple days ago.

If there is a single book that OEO and Dangerbird should read, this is the book.

He proves a number of frankly fatal idea failures inherent in any geopolitical move. The first is that one must have a defined end result which was entirely lacking in Iraq. Given altered circumstances from this failure, we still do not have a defined end result. The defined end result is s a result that is achievable over the long term. Given the damage done to citizenry of Iraq taken in conjunction with it's civil assumptions, we have no exit point. We stay for good, if we can. That is hardly a desired end result.

Thomas Rick's last ultimate scenario on the last page seems to me to be the ultimate result for the entire middle east. The Sunni's , at least, will get their Saladin.

[gene]

Sorry Jim so few are paying attention or even know (much less give a flying fuck) to what is currently destroying this nation. Not that this chicken shit country with all of its pathetic memebers don't deserve a royal procto but again, they don't want to know the truth. They will just get in their road tank they drive and head for McDonalds. Once their they will continue to feed their fat asses (ever notice how many fat kids you see when you go to walmart) and continue to believe in Jesus and the American dream. Boy is it ever a dream or should I say NIGHTMARE. Over heard this (fat girl) trying to convince her friends to vote and I'm thinking "does it matter" what good is voting going to do at this stage. Its like asking a cancer patient with only a few hours left to go to McDonalds and purchase a happy meal. How in God's universe did humans ever become so fucked up?

[fizure]

Thomas Rick's insights to the troubles in Iraq can only be seen as light illuminated by someone who actually knows what the fuck he is talking about—a concept which doesn’t seem readily apparent wherever I see anyone from, or representative of the US executive branch. Why the hell don't they kick Rumsfeld out and have Rick run the DoD?

The entire enterprise, starting far before Bremer but not ending with him, is criminal in scope. A catastrophe far worse than 9/11 (although not in intent, but easily in calculable damage to people as casualities+injuries, in monetary terms, systems-functioning and physical damage.) I invite anyone to dispute this.

On 9/11: 2,973 Americans perished from the earth near instantaneously, broadcast on live world news through global communications satellites.

From March 2003 until now: 2,831 Americans have perished slowly and usually quite painfully while occupying the foreign country "Iraq". We have watched this for more than three years at this point, with no end in sight—as a steady death toll ticks up to no one’s avail. Looks to be almost pointless death to preserve the status quo, almost the reverse of the terrorist “strategy”, which goes something like pointless death to roll back the status quo to the Middle Ages. If it quacks it is a duck, and there is a shitload of quacking everywhere I fucking look, jesus christ almighty.

You watch CFN, will anyone bat an eye where those two numbers converge and then the latter surpasses the former? I'm sure our courageous "liberals" in the media won't really take notice, and surely dangerbird won't skip a beat--because logic is impenetrable to those who think understand what they are doing (which either the neocons were categorized under, or they just didn't care either way and just wanter us "in there"--I tend to take their more serious remarks at face value, so Dick Cheney obviously thought in 2003 that the situation would be going better than it presently). Our disregard, or inability, in facing the obvious pitfalls that our evident is essentially a part of our tragic American character. This is evident from American politics in recent memory, essentially the entire 20th century. Short sided thinking seems to have taken the front burner along with our new "fast-paced" lifestyles.

We might actually expect a "commemoration" of those murdered on 9/11 and in the Iraq war--one group being taken to the stake by islamofascists, the other on the silver plate of the neocons who now want out of any culpability... Comedy abounds. Ahh, my good friends, but whatever happened to your "spreading democracy", eh? Again, queue a dangerbird scathing retort..

I doubt democrats will do jack shit, Iraq is gone... *gone*. And will be for a long time to come--call me a defeatist, I really don't care. The dunkeys will just sit around and make noise, thus is politics... and if they're lucky (hah, HA!) they'll get the '08 executive branch only if they can make shit so bad for bush-dick-&-rove-CO that "America" elects Hillary only to prove the evangelical rapturists right and have the world come to an end. Lets all do crystal meth and have gay sex! woo-hoo! I tend to think that politics is going to be one area that really gets hit with criticism as people slowly find out that our way of life is unsustainable, and they have been led down a dead end road for multiple generations only to find there’s no more asphalt to expand our mega highways for the next generation (not literally speaking, that’s what’s called a bad metaphor—expect more at later dates.)

Anyway, if one has done a cursory reading of the history and conflicts within Iraq it is clear that our interests are not centrally important or considered "humane in nature” by the vast majority of people who reside there, and that within that vast majority a can of worms has been opened that will be drawn into a squirming political disaster for decades to come, fueled by religious fundamentalism (and--that's right, you guessed it) violent radicalism! (yay for bigoted thinking and steadfast faith without evidence! Hip hip hooray!) Just look at Iran, and that country was a cake walk (aside from the Tanker War--where, btw, the first Islamic suicide bomber made his name, an Iranian 13 year old boy, I believe, who "martyred himself"--blew himself up, to halt advancing Iraqi tanks... A dose of what is in store for the next adventurists--who might, perhaps, want to go into Iran by way of making the neocons looks like pussycats)... Just think how utterly fucking insane Iraq will be in two decades… Unimaginable.

That’s, that’s, that’s tha, that’s all, that’s all for now folks!

[Jerry Johnson]

Tomorrow, the Army, Navy, Air Force and Marine Times will issue a joint editorial for the immediate replacement of Rumsfeld.

This is a very major political move by the military. It amounts to a total vote of no-confidence in the Bush Administration.

The various Times military papers are owned by Gannet but are also widely read by the military. These papers reflect the consensus of the readership unless the editors are incompetants in their trade. Successful papers and magazines slightly lead their readership. If they do not, they rapidly lose circulation. This is a subject of personal involvement for most of my adult life.

Unprecedented move even not taking into consideration the Army General Officers revolts of the past six months. The heat is on to do something pronto. BUsh having backed Rummsy for the rest of his days has been told by the military that he is full of incompetant shit.

They want these asswipes curbed starting with Rumsfeld. While it will not have a major effect on the elections, a lot of ex military will have cause to reflect on a Congress abdicated all responsibility.

The text is running on AOL.

All in all, it looks like the incumbents just might get a swift kick in the ass. Americans hate losers and this Congress is a collection of losers. In my district, I have not seen a single campaign sign indicating the candidate is a Republican. The Republicans, in fact, have taken to sign backgrounds other than red. They are afraid of being labeled Republican. Yesterday, I saw a similar result in Southeast Wisconsin. Nary a red sign to be seen. Two years ago almost all Reub's sported red campaign signs and elephants. I have not seen an elephant on a sign or ad period this year.

Those Reub's must hate their own party or be terrified that being a Reub is a guarantee to lose a vote.

[dangerbird]

Bravura performance fizzy pop. You win the award. For the category of "best imitation of a madman in a trenchcoat, muttering to himself in a dark alley". Congratulations! Your statuette will be delivered to you in the morning, by one of Funk & Wagnell's best delivery men.
Oops. No time for a speech. And now, a word from our sponsor.

See the U.S.A. in your Chevrolet. SUV that is.

[vorpal]

I'm with gene.

[asoka]

I come to the defense of the democrats. I am listening to a speech Bill Clinton gave last week in which he specifically addresses questions of energy. I believe Al Gore has also addressed issues relating to peak oil and global warming. The democrats may not have the perfect answer, but it seems they are at least aware that a problem exists. That's the first step... and they may be a little more "science-friendly" and reality based... open minded enough to listen.

[Bill]

Politics? Why bother! I expect folks will muddle through. Its not like anybody who knows anything will share it with the voters....

I'm only one person, but I think I have succeeded in weaning myself off the big oil tits. Well mostly. It was easier than I thought it would be.

The canola oil seems to run the volvo engine just fine, even without the ethanol in it. We'll see if it needs ethanol in order to keep it from turning into a block of paraffin come winter. Since I am in Ottawa, where winters are not all that bad, it just might work. ten percent ethanol seems to just separate out the paraffin, and I'm bettin' that any extra should keep it from freezing. Well, we'll see.
So far, so good.

Hey...at least I'm doing something about it instead of flapping my gums....grin!

[vorpal]

I'm of the opinion that Iraq is easy. The current account deficit, a.k.a. trade deficit, is a real problem. Of course, oil and autos are a major part of that problem.

We can leave Iraq whenever we want. Even if we wanted to balance the current account, we wouldn't know where or how to start. this notion of Iraq as being a defining issue is yet another sign of how clueless the American people are.

It's fun to talk about war. Talking about BEA trade reports is less fun. but the trade reports contain information on as subject will have a far far greater impact on the everyday lives on Americans than the Iraq war ever could.

[dangerbird]

Hey JJ.
What is a Reub? Are you calling them a bunch of sandwiches? As in Reuben? Or, leader of one of the twelve tribes of Israel,as in the eldest son of Jacob and Leah? Are you saying Re-ub? That means nothing. But meaning nothing wouldn't stop you from prating on with utmost thoughtfulness. So that could be it. Or are you trying, in your ham-handed; I mean highly intellectual way, to call them rubes? Is that even funny? Or even poingnant?

Shouldn't there be some kind of point to your sarcasm? Shouldn't it be at least somewhat funny, and or ironic? Methinks the pointed end of your arrow is rather dull. But thats okay. Even if your wit was sharp, you would continue to miss the target by a longshot. But as it is, your dull ended arrows fall helplessly on the ground. Like a random shooter, firing blanks.

[Dumas]

Dear vorpal,

I wholeheartedly agree with you in re: deficits being hugely important, though boring to most people.

Just a couple of numbers..

Since 1970 the US has cut its energy consumption per real, inflation-adjusted GDP dollar by 50%. On the other hand debt/GDP has doubled and is now a combined 323% of GDP (govt.+corp.+household debt). That is simply astonishing..add to that the negative personal savings rate, i.e. americans now spending their savings in order to consume, something that has not happened since the Great Depression.

The US economy is now based on inflating, trading and hypothecating "assets" instead of generating income. It is an unsophisticated example for real incomes, but the minimum wage has been the same since 1997 and has since lost 30% of its purchasing power. It reached the maximum real purchasing value back in 1968 at $9.10 in 2005 dollars.

In politics "it is always the economy, stupid"...even if it is masked by other events. After all, even the Iraq "Fiasco" (excellent book BTW) is not about spreading democracy, WMD or terrorism, is it?

[Lilli]

I'm looking forward to Nancy Pelosi being Speaker of the House.

[Lilli]

'Hey JJ.
What is a Reub? Are you calling them a bunch of sandwiches?'

I think Jerry was referring to the Repuglyones.

[dangerbird]

Jerry.
I'm embarrassed for you, ol' son. You're not really investing any hope in that Army Times crap, are you? The fact that you place credence in that piece of agit-prop from one of Peter Arnett's old pals from Nam, shows just how bereft of substance you really are. Gannett's publication in Nashville so reflects its readers views that they had to do the upside down Tennessee Waltz last week after throngs of readers cancellled their subscriptions after the Tennessean's editorial about Kerry's recent moment in the sun. Affectionately known as Pravda on the Cumberland, The Tennessean should actually be considered paid political advocacy for one party. And it ain't the "Reubs". And I'm not talking about just the editorial page, or the op-ed pages either. Besides. Jerry, ol' bean. Editors don't take votes of their readership when composing their editorial positions. And to present this bit of street theater as some kind of official position of the military, while to be expected from the inhabitants of the gutter, is also, wide of the mark. Missed again Jerry.

[mpg]

I had hoped that this election would have been about our energy predicament. Some days I think the democrats are just as bad, maybe not as good liars. Other days I think its been a deliberate stategy to let the republicans burn themselves out. The Goldman Sachs portfolio switch and a calm hurricane season on this side of the planet eased the gas prices for the moment. Did any peaksters manage to buy low? If the dems had brought up the issue they would have attacked. Not sure the populace is ready for a gas tax yet. Predator congressman and a bummer of a war may get the same result.

[Mike]

The Election will be driven by economics, as always. That may partly explain the GOP's predicament. And of course it's about Iraq.

But I think more than anything it's a referendum on the manner of governance, the vision or lack thereoff coming from the top. A decision on what we want our Republic to be.

And if the citizens votes all count, it should be a clear message.

[Mike]

One of the main motives in US foreign policy, including the war in Iraq, saber-rattling with Iran, and trading barbs with Hugo C. is the "petrodollar".

If the US withdraws from Iraq, continuing worldwide acceptance of the petrodollar (the accepted currency for international oil transactions) is toast. If this happens, the US empire is over because other nations like China will no longer buy our dollars to keep our debts afloat. Game over on maintaining US hegemony in Iraq and elsewhere. The US is no longer the big-time bad guy but is now the emperor with no clothes on.

No more petrodollar, no more US borrowing money; everyone else laughs at our projection of power, and needless to say the dollar plummets on the foreign currency markets; we have instant financial crisis at home. No more cheap imported goods; oil prices rise vs. our weakened dollars; you can imagine the rest.

Both parties have to keep the Iraq police action going to keep the petrodollar afloat. Its eventual collapse is ensured, but the petrodollar is a goner as soon as we pull out --- it is the US's "Suez Moment".

Michael Klare (Blood and Oil) and William Clark (Petrodollar Warfare) make the case pretty well. Read their books for the full history and story.

[fizure]

dangerbird, where in high hell is my statuette? I'm reporting Funk & Wagnell to the better business bureau. And now in reciprocity I would like to present you with the award for "best imitation of a guitar playing , persistently-patronizing, feckless curmudgeon-troll muttering in an internet forum..." Because, we all know deep beneath your annoying persona lays all the magnificence of purple mountains and rustic prairies. You are true American icon.

There will be no prize distributed, your consolation is your gratitude for my attention.

"Under democracy one party always devotes its chief energies to trying to prove that the other party is unfit to rule - and both commonly succeed, and are right." --H.L. Mencken

[Mike]

Now *that's* one o' them there "funny coincidences," huh? Two Mikes posting simultaneously.

I'm the first one.

[kd]

http://www.war-times.org/issues/20art1.htm

"The Iraq War is now openly and almosy universally recognized as having been wrong, hundred of thousands of people have 'needlessly' died, and now the Americans are talking about pulling out, leaving iraq in a truly dismal state, and much worse than anything under Hussein. Why is it that there are no universal calls for Bush's answering to his crimes against humanity? Why is it that my writing something like this conjures up fear as I write it, echoing the same repression that Hussein used against any of his detractors?"

http://butuki.com/laughing_knees/bile/

The more things change...

http://douglassarchives.org/debs_a80.htm

[Mike K]

I'm Mike K, the second Mike who posted about the petrodollar. Imagine the confusion if someone with the initials GWB starts posting.

[ross]

It hurts anticipating getting your ass kicked with a steel toed boot doesn't it featherhead? May you and your scurvy party get obliterated on the morrow.