The Warming

January 8, 2007
     Everyone was walking around upstate New York delirious in their shirtsleeves on Saturday as the thermometer soared into the sixties (an all-time record for January here). The resource cornucopians were beside themselves with glee as the price of crude oil nose dived down to the mid-$50 range, proving what ninnies we peak oil alarmists are. The mustard greens we planted last July are still growing in the garden. The cat caught a garter snake. And later that evening those fluffy things in the headlights were moths, not snowflakes.

     It was hard not to enjoy the end of the world. But despite all the high spirits and the roller-bladers and the kids hoisting their Ben-and-Jerry's cones, one was provoked to wonder about all the deer ticks out there enjoying an extra breeding cycle, not to mention the deer themselves, fattening up on prematurely swelling buds, and the pine bark beetles we've been hearing about up the road in the Adirondacks.

      And for the really farsighted, there is the contemplation of what summer might be like. After all, if it is 67 in January, might it be 107 in July? And maybe that won't be so groovy. The electric grid is much more stressed out when all the air-conditioners are humming across the land. I'm not looking forward to Lyme disease, West Nile virus, or maybe even Dengue fever, either.

     While it seems morally upright to inveigh against global warming Al Gore style, personally I don't believe there is anything we will do about it, or can do about now. The feedback loops are in motion. Something ominous is underway far greater than our measly powers can correct. Even if we started it with about two hundred years of our fossil fuel fires, there is no evidence that can just stop burning coal, oil, and methane gas on the grand scale, or that the warming would stop if we did.

     The response of our political leaders is laughable. The most "progressive" among them will demand rapid conversion of the US automobile fleet to hybrid engines. I am confident that this would do absolutely nothing to put the brakes on global warming.

      As usual, I am much more interested in how events are likely to turn out than in how we wish them to turn out. My guess is that the weird weather we are getting will increasingly affect crop yields. With populations growing, and weather anomalies increasing, grain surpluses worldwide are now at their lowest point in decades. All the major grain-growing regions have suffered either significant drought (US, Australia, Ukraine, China, Argentina) or flooding (East Africa, India) in recent years. (See this report from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.)

     The poorer, "undeveloped" nations are feeling the pain first, as usual, and this pain is translating into political breakdown, violence, starvation, and genocide. At the same time, these poorer places are leaving the oil age behind. they have dropped out of the bidding as oil made its move above the $50-a-barrel mark. In these countries, there will no longer be fuel for electric generators or motor transport, and the primary manifestation of all that will be a breakdown of public health. Between the political death squads and the hospitals with no running water, tremendous forces for attrition are underway.

     Oil priced beyond the means of Third Worlders means more for America, for the moment, and indeed the public here is glorying in still-affordable gasoline. Judging by the evidence in the supermarket aisles, there have been no noticeable Cheez Doodle shortages. There are certain Third World countries, however, that also happen to be major oil producers. Nigeria, for instance. It is already a very chaotic state. The oil there is extracted mainly by multinational corporations who pay substantial royalties and licensing fees to the Nigerian government. The people of Nigeria mostly do without. Increasingly, they are tapping into pipelines illegally and siphoning off oil. Meanwhile, a quasi Civil War has provoked assaults and kidnappings against the oil infrastructure and foreign workers. Sooner or later, Nigeria will become too chaotic and its oil supply will go off-line, so to speak, perhaps permanently. When that happens, the happy motorists in Atlanta and the San Fernando Valley may start to notice that something is happening.

     Global warming will not get our attention this winter. It's too pleasurable here in the northeast US, where so many decisions are made. The new Democratic congress may blather about it, but there will be no policies or protocols, just as there will be none about the other "elephant in the room" -- overpopulation. There's not a damn thing we're going to do about it. You can deplore it, but then what?

      Of course, I maintain that there is a broad range of actions we could take in the US that would constitute an intelligent response to this Long Emergency of climate change and oil depletion. The most important thing we could do at the moment is to stop debating about all the different "innovative" ways to run our cars, and come to grips with the fact that we have to leave the happy motoring era behind us, period. I don't see Nancy Pelosi taking the lead on this one. She'll just bring a new kindergarten veneer to the same old politics of denial. The mid-winter cherry blossoms will only make the denial seem more festive.

Comments

[EastCoastShock]

It was 72 in Philadelphia on Saturday, but nobody I knew seemed to be bothered by it one bit. Just chalk it up to El Nino. Hey, global warming isn't so bad after all, is it?

Meanwhile, Junior drafts plans to escalate his batshit insane war in Iraq by sending more soldiers to the meat grinder. The Democratic Congress chooses to completely ignore the electorate that voted it into office by suggesting that Junior need only demonstrate why additional money and men are needed for his clusterfuck to secure funding.

[The Blue Rider]

Yeah, I have to confess, I am one of those enjoying the unseasonably warm weather - may it see us through the winter. I'll be out there on my bike and rollerblades.

And what is that funky smell they've got in NYC this morning?

[Freddy Fender]

A more Biblical/literal interpretation of "Global Warming" might be because Mohammed/Yahweh/God wants to swamp all the pussy-ass liberals who seem to congregate in the low seasides of the Northeast, West Coast, and Northwest?!?!??

Just a thought.

[Mike Church]

I agree that global warming is a serious problem, but 70-degree January days, and 110-degree July days, and 45-degree July days, and -10-degree January days, have existed in NY for millennia. So have droughts and floods and hurricanes and everything else that is cited as an example of global warming in action. What I find a lot more alarming is the effect global warming has on animal and plant cycles-- because some are based on light, others on temperature, and others on ocean and wind currents, many symbiotic relationships are being disrupted by the lost synchrony.

The gradual (on a human scale) upshift in temperatures is alarming, and a real problem, but a varying climate isn't a symptom of it, and for people to raise the issue with full flair on these garden-variety +2.5sigma days where nothing dangerous is really happening just makes a farce of the whole problem.

[kd]

Excellent post, Jim.
Here in Austin the fiesta continues. Sunny, mild weather brings out the shoppers. The Hummers are humming, leaf-blowers blowing, spectacular new freeways & tollways are under construction (with a plethora of attendant strip malls & fast food stops) and a gigantic new Ikea is drawing crowds of delirious central Texans to wander a dazzling labyrinth of European designed/Chinese made low-priced furniture & homeware. Like the T-shirts say "Life is Good."

Peak Oil? Global Warming? Say wha...?

[Mike]

Last summer, several water companies imposed hosepipe bans over much of London and several other parts of the UK, which, apart from Ireland and Norway is in theory about the wettest country in Europe. The bans are still operative so even now in the middle of "winter" - daffodils are springing up, frogs doing the business , trees have only just lost their leaves and are already in bud for spring, warmest December in London since records began back in 1658 etc etc - even now, folk can't wash their cars and water their lawns. Meantime the British government talks fine words about the threat to us all global warming and pushes for a massive expansion of airport capacity so that more jets can pump CO2 into the air, and promotes plans for a massive expansion of fuel burning suburban sprawl that will encrust much of the south and midlands of the country. Over in the French and Swiss Alps, the ski resorts were lamenting the absence of snow three weeks after it was supposed to have started layering the slopes. The snow has fallen now, so the jets are swooping in from all over Europe pumping out more carbon in the process and the trucks are thundering through the Alpine passes. Most of the south of Spain has a severe and permanent water shortage, and the wall to wall laying down of water thirsty golf courses, for a thousand kilometres from the Pyrenees to Gibraltar goes on. There are reports that in some areas of Italy there has been a return of malaria because of the effects to climate change. I remember visiting the south west USA a few years ago, and seeing Lakes Mead and Powell at half the level they should have been while the fountains pulsed water prodigiously high into the air outside the casinoes at Las Vegas. How many coal burning electricity generating power stations are opened in China every year? - I heard it works out at one a week. How much of the Brazilian rain forest is destroyed every year? From space you can see the long dark trail of filth from the factories of India staining the sky out across the Arabian Sea. Yet it seems nothing will be done by the governments of the nations - perhaps because in reality nothing can be done. The complexity of the whole world economic and social system is such that it is beyond the power of any govermnent or organisatioon to control and change - even if they were willing to do so. Perhaps the only hope is that peak oil may be within the next few years - then we'll have to start reducing our reliance on the stuff and be forced to punp out less carbon. Perhaps.

[Laura Louzader]

Have to admit I'm loving subtropical Chicago in January.

Global warming has wide reaching implications, but I believe that it is a mistake for the policy makers to emphasize it while remaing silent about Peak Oil.

Most people out here can scarcely comprehend global warming, and it sounds vague and fuzzy and far in the future. Peak oil and resulting shortages and corresponding plummeting living standards are MUCH easier to understand.

Which is why our leaders don't want to talk about it. It's hard to call the effects, either short or long term, of global warming.
There are hundreds of different ways global warming could play out in terms of climate change, flooding, increase or decrease in temperatures.

The effects of Peak Oil, however, are a very easy call:critical shortages of necessary fuel and steeply and rapidly dropping standards of living, combined with the inability of rapidly multiplying numbers of people who can find no way to make a living.

That's why Gore and all the others yap endlessly about global warming and carefully avoid PO.

[Jeff Euber]

Meanwhile, in Albuquerque, where my Dad retired to in an RV two years ago to finally rid himself of Vermont winters, two feet of snow put the city into a coma last week. They didn't know what to do.

Ski areas in New Mexico's northern mountains enjoyed a 58-inch bonanza of new snow, while Vermont's ski areas limp along on mud and slush. I suppose we'll finally get winter just in time for spring.

[Frosty]

Peoplo who have decided to take action and actually do something (protest) over Airport expansion here in the UK are now facing ASBO's (anti-social (whatever that might actually mean) behaviour orders)). The ecologist covered it in this podcast...

http://tinyurl.com/yf3b5h

[3-D]

As much as you harp on an end of the world scenario here, and politicians harp on a "Nothing to see here, move along. Be a good citizen. Consume, reproduce, die. Business as usual." stance, I think both perspectives are wrong. As with most things in this world, change will not be violently quick (it hasn't so far, has it?) and will come in gradual stages and spurts. This is why the majority of people will not see the problem until its too late. (Throw a frog in a boiling pot of water, it will jump out. Throw it in a lukewarm pot and heat it up, you'll cook it. People are like that too.)

The car driving paradise CAN be kept up on alternative fuels, however it requires that instead of running around broadcasting the end of the world and smugly telling the populace "Your lifestyle and Hummer-driving fantasies are cancelled! Hahah!" that we instead get out there and push for the electrical infrastructure of the country be moved to nuclear, solar, wind, and tidal power starting immediately. Otherwise we're just converting one limited source of energy (petroleum products) to another limited source (alternative fuel) and losing energy to entropy in the process, which is obviously a losing proposition to anyone with an elementary knowledge of physics.

Any other initiatives will get no traction and more likely just find resistance, as I'm sure you've found already. If you offer people a scenario that is more or less realistic, requires some reasonable changes, and can be accomplished right now, then you're far more likely to find success. As it is, your doomsaying is as much a waste of your energy as the politicians' attempts to placate the population are a waste of valuable time that could be used to build an alternative energy infrastructure.

You really are on top of the game, Jim. I value your ability to find resources and facts, and to evaluate trends. However, you tend to run the end of the world prediction course too often, which is what causes level-headed information collection and dissemination like yours to be lost on staunchly selfish conservative types. Seriously, while I agree with you things need to be done/changed quickly, and I'm sure your extremist views sell more copies of your books, a more balanced view and use of your knowledge might bring more favorable results than the outright resistance you face right now.

I know you advocate fully overhauling everyone's life, selling every car, and trashing every Wal-Mart in sight, but trying to get that will result in nothing changing. Absolutely NOTHING. Then when things fall apart, we really *will* face a civil war and the end of civilization.

Even if we just got things arranged so when the cars stopped we'd still have electricity to power researching new ways to travel our world and the public transit system you so love, wouldn't that be more than we're on the course to getting right now?

[RJ]

I believe the fatal flaw in our political system has been revealed: our fearless "leaders" can only think two years ahead at a time. So much for the vision thing. With the enormity of problems we now face on the planet, our great system of government is thus basically useless. I loved Children of Men, and thought it painted a pretty potentially realistic grim picture of what's to come, and the time frame/period (2027) is probably about right too. I would suggest liquidating the portfolio, forget about the Florida/Arizona retirement paradigm, and enjoy what's left (brushing up on the old survival skills might be a good play as well).. It's been a good ride for me. It's about to get bumpy in the suburbs..

[Rhea]

I, too, am enjoying the warm weather here in Boston. But my friends and I are progressive types and disturbed about the implications of this strange turn of events. As for action, I see newspapers continuing to explain away the erratic weather with talk of "El Nino." When will we change our ways?

[Matt]

I think that maybe the tragic death of Mr. Kim (took a wrong turn in a snowstorm) in Oregon can serve as a microcosm of our overall situation. We have had all the signs for decades that we shouldn't be driving up this road of automobile dependence. However, it is likely that we'll be burning the tires on our cars before we get out and walk. Blinded -- and impeded -- by the snowstorm that is "cult"ure.

[Kevin]

Every meteorologist I've heard attributes the northeastern warm spell to El Nino and not to global warming. I'll believe them far more than I would this blogger, whose attempts at prognostication have usually turned out to be extremely wrong (e.g. Y2K and DOW-2006).

[Mike]

My experience on Saturday was equally incredible & unnerving:

http://mikesneighborhood.blogspot.com/2007/01/shirtless-idiots-at-yesterdays-playoff.html

I can't deny there's something wonderful about strolling in short-sleeves in January, but in the back of my mind I couldn't help but feel that we're all gonna pay dearly for the springtime jaunts in the park in the dead of winter.

[Weaseldog]

Kevin, you can't blame any single short term event on global warming.

And as I understand it, global warming may cause El Nino events to be more extreme and to last longer.

I don't know how you can seperate weather from climate, as many people are anxious to do.

Exxon reportedly spent $16 million last year to fund agencies to market information that runs counter to our scientific understanding of global warming.

Outside of the oil industry and its preachers, I haven't seen any scientific papers that deny global warming. Just arguments about nitpicky details.

But JHK is here to sell books and entertain, while covering important topics. Its not his place to be a scientific authority on global warming. There are better venues for discussion online, where people live and breath this topic.

JHK talks about automobiles too. Since he was wrong about the DOW hitting 4k, perhaps this proves that automobiles don't exist?

[Max]

3-D said "Even if we just got things arranged so when the cars stopped we'd still have electricity to power researching new ways to travel our world and the public transit system you so love, wouldn't that be more than we're on the course to getting right now?"
I have a question for your, 3-D. When fossil fuels become prohibitively expensive, and increasingly scarce at any price, and renewables are simply not scalable to the level needed and tne nuclear option is a joke where will all that power come from with an ever increasing population worldwide? Zero point? Aliens? You're talking about a techno fix but there isn't one on the horizon unless you know something we don't. And believe me, if you DO know something we don't then please tell us. I for one want PO to be solved. I'm selfish (so shoot me): I want a nice, quiet, easy life but unless there are real hard nosed scientific answers to the PO issue I know that I wont get my wish. IMHO, JHK's predictions for what MAY happen if things go really bad are actually on the conservative, cautious side. Then again, I've always been a gloomy gus ;-)

[Matt]

It is my understanding that the frequency and duration of El Nino is the result of global warming. It seems to me that meteorologists -- and Weather Channels -- are "warming" up to talking about global warming as it is now starting to help increase viewership -- and advertising revenue.

[Alfred]

In 1979, I was sent by my then US employer to Lagos, Nigeria. Ostensibly, I was there because our glorious sales manager had sold an airport check-in system to the airport people and I was the project manager given the task of installing it (all terminals had to be painted black of course). Within hours of arrival, I discovered that the people who had signed on the dotted-line did not have the authority to do so. After 9 almost indescribable days of confusion and chaos that now can be considered hilarious, I left that huge country and have never been back since.
I have spent quite a lot of time in various anarchic third-world countries. But Nigeria is a special case.
Everyone is now focused on the Middle East and our Sunday Times http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-2535310,00.html has explained that Israel is about to use atomic weapons against Iran - something that Israel denied a the following day. Personally, I think that they are too smart to go through with that.
However, I do think it will be Nigeria that will be first to cause an oil crisis this time. The big oil companies are hanging on there with their finger-nails.

[kd]

An aside:
Here's a piece some folks here may find interesting. The 12 Worst Ideas in the World. We could probably come up with some of our own. Maybe even a Best Ideas list?
From Open Democracy:

http://www.opendemocracy.net/globalization/worst_ideas_4227.jsp

[Tim]

One of my kids remarked that the warmer weather was due to El Nino, and asked what that meant in Spanish. The other kid replied, "global warming."

[Obvisouman]

A great majority of people would call Kunstler a curmudgeon, a stick in the mud, a party pooper, & plain old pessimistic.

I would not hesitate to say that opposite will hold true.

Mr.Kunstler is overly optimistic.
The worldscape we're heading towards will make the movie "Children Of Men" look happy go lucky in comparison.

[Randy White]

When Iran is attacked (in March?), the burbs will see what it's like to have grocery store shelves emptied.

Two days of produce on hand because of Just-In-Time inventory will not bode well for long term food security in Anywhere, USA.

What irks me is that stores don't even discount their 2006 vegetable seeds in the winter.

Were I a mayor of any US City, I would be bulking up on seeds to freely distribute to citizens, and would give copies of "The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil" to each theatre in the city.

When the first wake up call crashes into people's consciousness, the mayor could direct people to theatres and show them what their new future looks like.

[lco28]

well, there's one way to reverse the damage from global warming that's even worse than the problem. That would be detonation of many nuclear weapons. The problem for the idiots likely to try this is that in doing it, they'd kill off their "markets". Sort of like a parasite that quickly kills its host.

[Marcy]

All together:

No rocket's gonna fly that high
There's no escaping the enemy he's you and I
We poison up our water, we're chokin' on the air
Last stop before it gets too late or is it already too late?
Is it already too late
For the victims of comfort?
Got no one else to blame
We're just the victims of comfort
We cannot soothe the pain

And it's a technological merry-go-round
Dangerous solutions buried under the ground
And everyone likes a party
But no one wants to clean
Well I'd like to see a change somehow and I believe we're busy right now
Just a little busy right now
I am just a victim of comfort
I got no one else to blame
I'm just a victim of comfort
Cryin' shame

Victims Of Comfort
by K. Timber / Kevin Moore