The Big Chill

February 19, 2007
     One of the farmers who organized the Pennsylvania Association for Sustainable Agriculture's annual meeting put it nicely: "The ethanol craze means that we're going to burn up the Midwest's last six inches of topsoil in our gas-tanks."

      The American public is in chill mode in more ways than one. We are finally freezing our asses off in the Northeast after a supernaturally mild December and January, and the heating oil trucks are once again making the rounds of the home furnaces (and running down their inventories). But we're also chillin' on the concept that there is an energy problem per se. The public is convinced that we are one IPO away from attaining the sovereign rescue remedy that will permit us to continue running our Happy Motoring utopia.

      The public is bombarded daily with feel-good news about new bio-engineered bacteria that can turn sawmill refuse into high-test gasoline, cornucopias of miracle diesel beans, lithium batteries that will take you from Hackensack to Chicago on a single charge, and still (despite all the evidence against feasibility) hydrogen-powered SUVs. The public is convinced that we will enter a nirvana of "energy independence" just-in-time -- the same way that WalMart miraculously restocks it's shelves.

       The truth is, we will never be energy independent as long as we remain a car-fixated society. It's that simple. If we can't let go of the sunk costs associated with Happy Motoring, we're probably not going to make it very far into the future, either as a nation or a viable economy or as an orderly society. By sunk costs I mean our previous investments in car-oriented infrastructure.

      For the moment, I blame the Democrats (and I am a registered Democrat). One shouldn't expect rational thinking from the current generation of Republicans. The sheer fact that so many of them have sold their allegiance to the Born Again dominionist fold, where magical thinking rules, means that they are incapable of evaluating the energy predicament -- in fact, if they are sincere in their apocalyptic dogma, then many of them would probably welcome a global struggle over oil, with all the military mischief it would entail in the vicinity of the Holy Land.

      No, I blame the Democrats. The Democrats are supposed to represent the reality-based faction of the general public. They should be able to do the math without getting sidetracked by Jesus-haunted visions of WalMart running on biodiesel. They should be willing to tell the public the hard truth before it's absolutely too late to make some collective decisions that would lessen the hardship in the circumstances we face -- like allocating some federal funds to passenger rail, or reforming codes, incentives, and subsidies that favor suburban sprawl, or replacing the FICA taxes with a gasoline tax (as proposed by oil man Jeffrey Brown of Dallas), or by aggressively promoting local agriculture.

     Most of the university professors in the USA are liberals or progressives or Democrats, or at least not Republicans trafficking in magic. University professors in the so-called "hard sciences," especially, have to lead reality-based lives which encompass such ideas as cause and effect and conclusions derived from facts. They ought to know that we are not going to run the interstate highways on any combination of "alternative" fuels. Why are they not challenging the politicians who would pander to the public's delusions?

     How about the policy wonks in the progressive foundations? Why is Amory Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute still trying to sell the snake oil of a "hyper-car," when its chief effect is to reinforce the mistaken idea that we can continue to be a car-dependent society?

     This may be the Democrat's last chance to get their shit together. The Republicans are already done. You can stick a fork in them. But the Democrats have an opportunity to lead America back into a reality-based channel of history's stream. They can tell the truth about climate change, about oil-and-gas, and about the terrible misinvestments that we have to put behind us. They can prepare the public to deal with the new facts of life.

     My guess is that this may happen with Al Gore emerging as the party's candidate for president. The 2008 election campaign has started way too early and the candidates who have announced so far, whatever their merits or demerits, are liable to exhaust themselves. If Al Gore intends to step up to the plate -- and I think he will -- he would be wise to chill out and wait until at least next fall. That seems to be what he is doing anyway.

Comments

[German Mike]

Top 10 list of responses to peak oil/energy:
10. Need is the mother of inventions
9. We just use hydrogen
8. In the 70's they said we're running out of oil
7. We still got ANWR and the Gulf
6. There's still enough for 100+ years
5. Nuke'em, take their oil
4. I hope we run out of oil, I own Exxon stock
3. Ethanol to the rescue
2. Rechargable Hybrids
...and numero uno
1. The market will take care of it.
That's about the typical responses I've gotten int he past when it came to energy.

[one Eye Open]

Listen to me people. L-I-S-T-E-N to me. I have horrible news. Horrible news. There is not a fucking thing you can do about it but listen to me. I beg you, its for your own good. We're running out of energy and some nasty shit is going to happen as a result. And there is nothing, I repeat, nothing you can do about it.

Well even if people do listen to the preceeding plea what is it you expect them to do. You tell them at the onset that all is lost. There is nothing they can do. So, they do nothing. They do exactly as you suggest. Nothing. Would you feel better if they dance a jig? Scream at the top of their lungs? Kill you for your supply of dwindling energy? Or perhaps they'll chose to drive to the mall in their SUV and shop a bit. When you give them no hope and tell them there is nothing they can do why do you get your knickers in a bunch when they chose to do NOTHING?

[one Eye Open]

Oh yeah and regarding Al Gore becomming President? Charles Manson will be President before Al Gore is President.

[German Mike]

OEO, there's a whole bunch of stuff that could be done. Unfortunately all solutions require moderate sacrifices on a personal level. As we all know that is non-negotiable.

[David Mathews]

Excellent article, Mr. Kuntsler.

However, I do disagree with the notion that Democrats are any more reality based than the Republicans.

Nearly all Americans share the ultimate delusion: Technology will save us!

From a very young age everyone is taught that America is a good and righteous nation and that such nations cannot help but grow richer, more powerful, and better forever.

Democrats buy into these American myths just as easily as Republicans. They may or may not believe in God but they all believe in America. They also have faith in technology.

And they are all united by the economic dogma: The population and economy must grow perpetually in order to guarantee prosperity both now and forever into the future.

There is very little reality exhibited by either Democrats or Republics. Both parties are governed by lies, myths and delusions.

The Democrats have not asked Americans to make any sacrifices yet. Will they ever? I doubt it. America is wealthy because it consumes, cutting back consumption threatens America's wealth.

America is such a mess because of poor leadership from both political parties. America will not escape the upcoming catastrophe specifically because both parties refuse to change course.

A Democrat in the White House in 2008 won't save America. America is a dying nation afflicted with a terminal illness. At this point we all have no choice except await the troubles which are certainly coming.

[edgar]

"My guess is that this may happen with Al Gore emerging as the party's candidate for president..."

Nicely written post, however, if everyone tried to live as Al Gore does we would already be out of fuel.

[t]

The Senate committee on the Environment and Public Works is currently putting toegether a policy on global warming. While it is reality based to set goals, my guess is that the actual steps to realize those goals will not be reality based and will include a heavy dose of ethanol and hydrogen. We will also make some lame attempts to raise cafe standards but the results, which will be trivial, will be years away.

Having said that, is their a way, Jim, that you could wrangle a visit to the committee to testify? Unless Barbara Boxer is reading Clusterfuck on a weekly basis, the message is probably not getting through.

[mpg]

Can we make a deal to not talk about the not exactly upcoming presidential race for a week or two? I know the race is important for the country, that the people involved need to get busy and that everybody is sick of Iraq. The focus on personality, a horse race and issues of distraction are keeping the important stuff from bubbling up. Candidates don't lead, they sniff the zeigiest in the air and take it from there. Talk about what it takes to be "energy independent" and maybe the winner gets a mandate.

[kd]

A Republican will be President in 2008.

[bestwishes]

i have to agree with dave mathews on this. the democrat-republican arguments are about as interesting as ford vs. chevy. it doesn't matter if the subject is war, energy, or ethnic studies.

i stopped listening to NPR the day they did a nostalgic piece on an older generation personnel carrier that was being used in iraq. whoever came in contact with this special military machine had only love and admiration for it. brief interviews were interspersed with stylish jazz clips.

gore has been seasoned by his "loss" in 2000 and his subsequent activism. but i still remember when he went off to south africa to defend big pharmaceudicals from profit losses resulting from
proposed humanitarian price reductions for aids drugs. he was dancin' with the gal that brung 'im then. is he now so rich in karma that he needs no big business backers ?

[ross]

Great list, Mike.

J.H.K., I feel your pain, but Al Gore won't be your party's nominee. The Democrats, who aren't, as you observe, in thrall to the sort of stupefying infantile idiocy that grips the average blood thirsty, greedhead, Jaaeebus loving Republican, are, if they aren't on board with Bushco madness, clueless and hopeless. Oh, there are a few folks who understand what's going on, but only a very few, but they aren't running the show or much influencing the proceedings. They couldn't be, not with Obamanation and Billary being put forward as the marquee performers.

So folks, make your own arrangements in advance of a steadily deteriorating situation because our Corpgov isn't the solution, it's the problem.

[Bill]

"I often joke that we are a wicked people who deserve to be punished. But the joke is, it’s no joke. I believe it with all my heart."

Looks like you're getting just what you deserve, Kunstler. Stop whining.

[Laura Louzader]

There is no faster way to commit political suicide in this country than to tell our population that they are going to have to give up their automobiles, and that's why Obama is never going to do it, or at least until he gets into office.

I promise that if an aspiring candidate talks about PO and the need to reduce our auto use and fuel consumption by at least 50% in the very near term, he not only will not get elected but can forget about ever running for anything ever again.

Politicians and populace alike would rather talk about anything else. All my "progressive", eco-conscious friends here in Rogers Park, Chicago (ever known as "tree hugger neighborhood) would rather talk about anything else, in spite of the noble efforts of one area blogger, who has pretty much dedicated her blog to the challenge of Peak Oil. Everyone around here really thinks that you can run the auto and truck fleet on biomass, and anyway there are more important issues, such as downzoning the nabe to keep people from tearing down drafty, oversized houses and replacing them with energy efficient multifamily bldgs; and, of course, to supply more parking, parking, parking.

In the meantime, Mayor Daley, who some journalist referred to as "The Great Green Augustus", has just discovered Global Warming, which to him is the "new word." His limited vocabulary does not yet include the term "peak oil", and Chicago continues to be woefully deficient in emergency preparedness, or ability to respond to critical energy shortages and interruptions in the power supply. In the meantime, this city is squandering its vast wealth on TIF boondogles and more auto infrastructure, while letting our formerly excellent transit system languish. We should be rapidly and greatly expanding the transit infrastructure, by adding more rail lines to connect the existing ones, and making the city's sprawling outer neighborhoods negotiable by transit, but that seems to be off the table now.

At this moment, we rely upon incompetent utilities for electricity and gas, and the city is excessively dependent upon natural gas. If there is a Plan B, I have not heard of it, except for loose talk about wind turbines atop city buildings. I hear nothing of constructing badly needed nuclear power plants, or even providing incentives to individuals and corporations to supply themselves with alternative energy generation.

If this is how one of the country's ten 'greenest' cities is meeting the situation, we're in for worse times than even JHK thinks.

[Laura Louzader]

There is no faster way to commit political suicide in this country than to tell our population that they are going to have to give up their automobiles, and that's why Obama is never going to do it, or at least until he gets into office.

I promise that if an aspiring candidate talks about PO and the need to reduce our auto use and fuel consumption by at least 50% in the very near term, he not only will not get elected but can forget about ever running for anything ever again.

Politicians and populace alike would rather talk about anything else. All my "progressive", eco-conscious friends here in Rogers Park, Chicago (ever known as "tree hugger neighborhood) would rather talk about anything else, in spite of the noble efforts of one area blogger, who has pretty much dedicated her blog to the challenge of Peak Oil. Everyone around here really thinks that you can run the auto and truck fleet on biomass, and anyway there are more important issues, such as downzoning the nabe to keep people from tearing down drafty, oversized houses and replacing them with energy efficient multifamily bldgs; and, of course, to supply more parking, parking, parking.

In the meantime, Mayor Daley, who some journalist referred to as "The Great Green Augustus", has just discovered Global Warming, which to him is the "new word." His limited vocabulary does not yet include the term "peak oil", and Chicago continues to be woefully deficient in emergency preparedness, or ability to respond to critical energy shortages and interruptions in the power supply. In the meantime, this city is squandering its vast wealth on TIF boondogles and more auto infrastructure, while letting our formerly excellent transit system languish. We should be rapidly and greatly expanding the transit infrastructure, by adding more rail lines to connect the existing ones, and making the city's sprawling outer neighborhoods negotiable by transit, but that seems to be off the table now.

At this moment, we rely upon incompetent utilities for electricity and gas, and the city is excessively dependent upon natural gas. If there is a Plan B, I have not heard of it, except for loose talk about wind turbines atop city buildings. I hear nothing of constructing badly needed nuclear power plants, or even providing incentives to individuals and corporations to supply themselves with alternative energy generation.

If this is how one of the country's ten 'greenest' cities is meeting the situation, we're in for worse times than even JHK thinks.

[Dave]

Your wrong kd. A Republicrat will be president in 2008 and he will be the last president of the united states. By 2012 the country will have fallen apart and will no longer be in existence as we have known it. Thats my call. Sectionalism, sescessionism, and slaughter will be the norm. The Zombies will be on the March with their maxed out credit cards, debased currency, defeated imperialist armies. post nuked cities, polluted lands and waters and a world community eager for vengence against what will be seen as the Great Satan that led planet earth into its terminally trapped situation. JHK is an optimist. So grab a seat at the Last Barrel Saloon with Old Dr. Karma as utters between rounds "Payback is a bitch !"

[Laura Louzader]

Sorry I posted that comment twice- that was completely accidental.

[ross]

Romney may be the most loathsome of the bunch. He's gone from being pro-choice to "pro-life" from a gun control advocate-(yeah, he's pro-life all right) to a card carrying NRA member in record time. In a political world where being bought and paid for is de rigeur, Romney is owned lock stock and (pun intended) barrel. Pandering doesn't begin to describe this shitty pol's modus operandi.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/02/19/romney_joined_nra_in_august/

[Lao Tzu]

James, your brilliant insights have inspired transit advocates for decades: not car drivers, but people working tirelessly for the return of railroads, bicycles, and ferries, to name a few.

"The Agenda Restated" was a masterpiece. Thank you for that contribution of hope for the future.

Yet taking part in the blame game at this point in history, no matter how righteous your rage at the denial, hypocrisy, and corruption of both parties is wasted time. Both parties are slaves to corporate cash above all else: playing to one side or the other helps legitimize them, and serves them well by keeping the rest of us disposable humans outside the ruling class divided and conquered.

You live in lovely Saratoga Springs. Go for a hike, a bike ride, or plant some seeds for a future harvest there. Listen to the natural world around you, and disengage from the electronic chatter that clouds everyone's thinking.

[Dave Cohen]

Re: "The truth is, we will never be energy independent as long as we remain a car-fixated society"

Right you are, Jim. We need to implement some counter-fantasy measures. I'll be in touch.

[Alfred]

How can the Democrats be realists? Are they not in hock to Israel?

Is it not about time the USA pursued its own foreign policy interests in the Middle East?

[fyi]

.
I didn't believe JHK believed in the tooth fairy, Santa, the Easter bunny or perpetual motion machines, after this latest post I am not so sure. The Democrats are our last best hope? You can't be serious. Al Gore? The Tobacco growin Gores who figured out tobacco kills AFTER their flesh and blood dies of lung cancer? Brilliance shines. To any who believe any in the political leadership can or will make the tough decisions, I can only point you to the very first piece of legislation this CONgress CONjured up:

http://www.threadwatch.org/node/11400

genocide in Iraq? or the looming energy problems? or even the looming collapse of our eCONnomory? Nope. If any more evidence was needed ...
.
ps the above linked legislation took mere days, while a NON-binding resolution against the surge took over two months despite what over 75% of Americans want.
http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_1763.shtml
.

[Weaseldog]

"A Republican will be President in 2008." - KD

The Democrats remembered for almost 24 hours how and why they got elected. At least in front of the cameras. They then went promptly back to giving fellatio to the Republicans.

The Republicans are still the rulers, because they best represent the money interests. The Democrats are allowed to play so long as they don't rock the boat, and they pretend to be an opposition party.

[Mike]

The solutions won't be coming from government or anyone at the top. And come to think of it, knowing the history of the 20th (and Early 21st) Century as well as we do, who the hell would WANT the solution to come from the government?

We all can, and should, do our own little part. It's the right thing to do, it's the only way to actually change anything, and unlikely though it is, it's the only we we'll manage to rework things.

Walk, ride a bike, recycle, grow your own stuff, whatever. It's all you can do, all you should worry about doing. Your neighbor'll get with the program when he feels he has to. Not before then.

Do your own part.

[M]

While the sentiment expressed here may be correct - that cars are driving us apart as a society - that does not naturally correlate with the idea that they will not stick around. Just because the idea of finding alternative auto energy is distasteful to the author does not mean it is impossible. I think he'd like it that way (so would I), but the two sentiments are being conflated here.

[Weaseldog]

Actually, yes, the numbers tell us that the personal automobile is going away.

The energy required to move hundreds of millions of autos is running out.

There are no alternatives that will produce the raw BTUs needed to maintain our current fleet, much less allow for growth.

Sure, we'll continue to drive up the price of feed in order to feed our cars, but that is also a self limiting trade off.

This year, corn has doubled in price. Coincidentally, the US government has dramatically increased the subsidies to the corn/ethanol program making it easier for fuel makers to drive the price of food up, to make fuel for cars.

How many meals would your family be willing to skip in order to motor anywhere you want? Would you be willing to feed you family only once a day? Maybe even reduce the size of that meal?

An auto requires what? 1500 more calories to travel a mile than a person walking? So a car needs 1500 more meals for the same unit of travel.

We can keep increasing our reliance alternative fuels and trade 1500 meals for each auto mile we subsidize, but that path is going to change our lives.