Rigged to Blow

May 14, 2007
     It's hard to venture around this land and not feel like you are living in something like an obsolete Las Vegas hotel exquisitely rigged for implosion. The massive system that we've poured all our national wealth into, and elaborated to the last limits of refinement over half a century, is poised for failure. The prospect is so dreadful that no legitimate authority in politics, business, the news media, or even those cultural outlands of the arts and religion, can bring themselves to express a plausibly coherent view of what happens next to a living arrangement with no future and an economy of no purpose.

     The system I refer to, of course, is the car-crazy infrastructure for everyday life, and all the activities supporting it, that most Americans now living regard as the natural and normal medium for human existence, as salt water is the natural and normal medium for squid. The public brings no critical reflection to being in it, and so its failure will eventually come as a deadly surprise -- as a red tide surprises the denizens of a tropical sea. When it occurs, the public will not be able to escape from their investments in this way of life. Some may feel swindled, but they will not lose their sense of having been entitled to a happier destiny, so the chances for the acting-out of massive political grievance are high.

     It's a tragic irony that we got so good at the advertising game the past half-century, because in doing so we rigged a sub-system dedicated to reinforcing all our false entitlements. So when the dreadful moment of recognition comes that we can't possibly continue being a nation of happy motorists shuttling between the strip malls and subdivisions, the bewilderment will be monumental. Nobody will believe that it is happening, or have a clue how we got ourselves into such a fix.

      For the moment, America is being subjected to the slow squeeze on gasoline prices, rather than a sudden sharp shock, with the pumps now averaging $3.09 nationwide. But there's a lot tension accumulating in the process. Gasoline prices are going up remorselessly now mainly because of bottlenecks in the refinery sector. Demand has gotten so high -- we are driving so much, regardless of up-or-downticks in measured economic activity, because the way things are laid out we have no choice -- that our existing refineries are operating at over 90 percent capacity (when they are running). This has led to the deferral of a lot of routine maintenance, so the refineries are either running flat-out or they're not running at all.

      Most of our oil refineries are more than fifty years old. The metal in their pipes and retort vessels is fatigued. Things break. The companies that sell gasoline, like Exxon-Mobil, realize that they are in a "sunset" industry, so they are not interested in investing any fraction of their currently enormous profits in new refineries (especially when they can use that money to buy back their own stock and jack up the share price). Besides, the public regards oil refineries as obnoxious, and if a new one were even proposed somewhere, an army of NIMBYs would arise and march on the local zoning board to oppose it -- so why bother?

     Last week, a reader sent me an elaborate Powerpoint show put together by a Peak Oil "optimist," someone who believes that there are vast recoverable reserves of oil waiting to be be tapped out there -- as opposed to those like myself who don't think new supply will offset declines in the known oil fields of the world. It seemed to me that most of this optimist's case was based on the fantasy that the tar sands of Alberta and the oil sands of the Venezuelan jungle will make up for what we no longer get out of places like Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, Cantarell in Mexico, West Texas, and the other old standbys.

     The Alberta tar sands are big, but even the Canadian government does not project them paying out much more than three million barrels a day when they reach maximum production in five or ten years, and the process will probably poison all the groundwater east of the Canadian Rockies. Meanwhile, world demand has reached about 85 million barrels a day. The project in Venezuela I regard as even less likely to ever reach production. Hugo Chavez has just chased out the foreign oil companies who have any technical expertise, but I think the jungle itself would defeat even them, and it will certainly prevent Chavez's lame crew from getting any product out -- he's having technical problems out in the old familiar Maracaibo Basin.

     The current sense of stalemate or stasis in Middle East politics the past year is certainly promoting an air of unreality. The civil war in Iraq grinds on no matter what the US police force does there, or what Congress and the White House do here. We bluster about Iran, but we don't do anything about them, and they bluster back at us. The Saudis bust a hundred Islamic revolutionaries every few months and keep their operation rolling. The Holy Land is tense but quiet for now.

     Events in geopolitics -- things that happen "above the ground," as they say in oil circles -- seem kind of stuck for the moment. We forget that these things become unstuck rather suddenly, through slippage, or a process like phase change in physics, where conditions persist -- until suddenly they don't. This is pretty much what happens to a fifty-year-old Las Vegas hotel. It stands there out on the Strip year after year, perhaps with decreasing decorum, but it persists until the day comes when somebody throws a switch and the whole edifice comes down, reeking carpets and all.

Comments

[Ken]

Another great post Jim.

As a Brit, I buy into your Vegas Hotel analogy, having visited Vegas in August 1998, just long enough to eat lunch and drive down the crumbling strip, tacky hotel rooms rented by the hour etc.

The hotels that had once been the glitz of the 1950s gambling set were now just crumbling dinosaurs.

With the arrival of the interstate, the hotels that faced the strip were just in the wrong place and facing the wrong way. Over the next few years they were mostly demolished and bigger and better, glitzier monsters built closer to the interstate to attract gamblers into the town.

The same irreversible decay happened along the old towns that once serviced the traffic along Route 66. Anyone been to Kingman AZ, recently? Reduced to a cluster of chain motels and plastic restaurants that huddle around each of the interstate junctions.

Nothing lasts for ever, and without cheap oil to fuel the industries and technology that keeps these desert communities alive, the decay rates will accelerate, measured in years rather than decades.

[Sir Bikes-a-lot]

It's not just America. The price of gas in Istanbul is about $8/gal and there are more people driving around than ever. Traffic is insane. It's done nothing to curtail driving. Smog and congestion are at record levels. It can take an hour to cross the bridge. Gas prices in the US will keep creeping up at a rate such that people will acclimate to it, so that when it's $8/gal here it will still be business as usual.

[bud4wiser]

""Some may feel swindled, but they will not lose their sense of having been entitled to a happier destiny, so the chances for the acting-out of massive political grievance are high."" So concludes, JK.

That's the crux of the matter. As I continue to speculate - how will the market forces drive the American electorate? Does the speed of a gas price increase
have anything to do with political-social will?

So, JK, just what do you mean by acting out? How will political retribution be manifested by public activism?

I say there will be plenty of ==knashing-of-the-teeth== and howling-at-the-moon beginning February, 2009. The controlled screw-job will be in full swing, and two America's will emerge, one will be made up of people who can afford Las Vegas, the other America, made of people who live like Mexicans.

As usual, another nice read today. Have a good week Jim.......

[Julian]

I don't know Mr Kunstler. I prefer more arguments based articles. You sound now more like a profet preaching the end of the world.
A more scientific approach would be more to my liking.
I was brought to this entire peak oil discussion by a friend and I believe there is lots of truth in it. But I must say the last 3 blogs do not bring any new information to the table.
I'll come back in a few months to see if you discovered anything new.

[Dave]

The degradation of the American Landscape is a reflection of the degradation of the working class of this nation. Read "Cheap Motels and a Hotplate" by Micheal Yates to get an autopsy on the American Landscape and the American worker. JHK is not a doomster but rather a cockeyed optimist. The workers ( white collared included ) have been decerebrated and demoralized and are just waiting for the Furher to lead the March of the Zombies in their dance with Lord Death. (i.e. mass internal immigration of a poor and desperate population anywhere but hut here) Have good day

[steveo]

Slippage huh? Interesting piece.

Yeah, who else has got one foot in the grave, and, at that, how long has your foot been in there?

In other words, I'm ready and it's here - the whole apocalypse collapse and lets rebuild this mess.

Let's rebuild this mess. This task like all others is limitless.

...cest le vie, cows eat snow, moan and groan.

[Laura Louzader]

This is one of the greatest of a large number of great CFN posts. Incredible writing- you come up with such great phrases that you are converting lots of people who definately don't want to hear your message, but they keep coming back because they like the way you say it.

And that's one of the uses of art, is it not? To tell us, in a way we find engaging and even beautiful, what we most definately do not want to hear?

Again, a wonderful post.

[asoka]

Nice post, Jim. My only comment would be with your reference to Iran.

" We bluster about Iran, but we don't do anything about them, and they bluster back at us."

Actually, the USA and Iran are getting closer together... with direct talks scheduled between the U.S. ambassador in Baghdad and Iranian officials. Bush is showing a new willingness to nonviolently reach out to Iran.

[German Mike]

Nice article, but...
Don't worry too much about peak oil, peak natural gas for North America is closer than PO for the world. I think something like 25% (give or take a few percent) of our total energy supply comes from natural gas (mostly electricity, followed by heating). We have very few LNG terminals, new ones are not being built. Even if they were we'd to rely on friendly places like the ME and Russia for imports. I think we'll face a natural gas crisis long before peak oil hits us full force.
In the meantime our politicians bicker about such important topics as late term abortion and gay marriage while the general public feverishly await the next reality show and the playoffs. I got news for ya'll. You'll be part of the reality show themed "How to get to work without using my SUV". How about that for a reality show? Getting excited? How about this one, "Surviving the winter without heating system". We just have a bunch of thrilling, hands on, reality shows coming to a neighborhood near you. Enjoy.

[Mike]

Vivid post Mr Kunstler, I would be interested in learning what type of abode you live in? Is that a picture of your driveway your standing on?
Lots of "Long Emergency" type stuff in South Florida newspapers today. For those interested:
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/palmbeach/sfl-psidewalk14may14,0,6422851.story?coll=sfla-news-palm

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/palmbeach/sfl-pcarpool14may14,0,3752040.story?coll=sfla-news-palm

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/broward/sfl-sdowntowns14may14,0,2517270.story?coll=sfla-news-broward

comments are pretty interesting(funny?) too
.

[OEO's twin(k)]

More lies out about Global Warming. Those scientists have an agenda.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/tenyear-warming-window-closing/2007/05/11/1178390554472.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

[Weaseldog]

In local news, the city of Arlington (Tx) is building three new bridges over Interstate 30. They are doing this to handle the expected increase in traffic when the Dallas Cowboys start playing there in 2009.

The City of Arlington is anti-rail. Though it seems to me like its a no brainer to put a train station in between Six Flags and the Stadium, they'd rather have people drive to their city.

I know folks that drive from Arlington to Ft Worth, to take the Trinity Express to Dallas everyday. It's faster for them to go West, park and catch the train to go East, as I30 can be a parking lot during rush hour.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/localnews/stories/051307dnmetthreebridges.3266051.html

[ryan]

They say new environmental regulations prevent the construction of new oil refineries. If this is true why not just build the oil refineries on old Industrial land? There are so many toxic former industrial sites in the United States. There's no need to build a refinery on fresh land. Built them on places that are already toxic.

Here's something stupid that happened in Cleveland recently. They converted some old Steelyards into a shopping center. There is a Home depot(like Lowes) and a Target and some big box boutique stores. This is technically in the heart of Cleveland, but there are only two entrances, and it is too isolated to really walk to.

[ryan]

A pessimistic outlook is that we will end up "living like Mexicans" in the post peak oil slide.

Words like "innovation" are typically applied to making better use of outsourcing, redesigning webpages, and applying better insulation to a McMansion.

A better way to Innovate is to make our cities and towns better suited to civilization. Our social needs, our civic needs, and our production needs. Cities in Iceland I think serve as a good model of design. Icelandic architecture and construction is very utilitarian.

[David Mathews]

Hello ryan,

> "They say new environmental regulations prevent the construction of new oil refineries. If this is true why not just build the oil refineries on old Industrial land?"

The problem is not that Americans do not have enough gasoline and other oil products. Americans are consuming 25% of the world's production.

The problem is that Americans have *too much* gasoline and oil byproducts.

Building a new refinery is sort of life an addict finding a newer, lower cost supply of cocaine.

The problem of an addiction is not the price and supply of the drug, it is the drug.

Americans need to break their addiction to oil. The price of gasoline needs to rise. The American economy needs to collapse. The American military superpower must cease to exist.

Not that we have any choice about any of these matters. Nature disposes of empires easily enough. America's days are numbered.

[FARfetched]

The rural county I live in is installing nice wide sidewalks in the town, and working with various clubs and state agencies to designate bicycle routes around the county. If only it weren't 10 miles to anywhere from FAR Manor.

Meanwhile, we have a *scheduled* blackout, to repair some power line damage, for about eight hours on Wednesday. We're going to unplug everything in case there's a surge; I guess I’ll pull the ice bucket out of the freezer & put it in the fridge to help keep things cool. Good drill to see what we need to do different if we start getting rolling blackouts in the next few years.

The in-laws have a large generator at the pump house, to keep water flowing to the chicken houses, but the batteries are dead and Mrs. Fetched has recruited me to hook up a portable generator tomorrow if the big one hasn't been fixed by then. (I've harped at the in-laws to run that freeking gennie once a month or so, but they blew that off like they blow off anything else I say.) 'Course, Mrs. Fetched & I get roped into fixing the stuff they shouldn't have let get borked in the first place....

[FARfetched]

BTW, how does one define "living like a Mexican"?

[Will]

As always another great post Jim.

My eye however is on Nigeria. Things are really heating up there.

If the MEND carry through on their promises. All bets are off sooner than you think.

I predict a total shut down of their oil biz in the coming year. That spells trouble for world oil supplies and the gas guzzling U.S. motorists.

[Chef_Charles]

Great post JHK.
One day Gas was 280.9 cents per gallon at the nearest quick stop place the next day it was 293.9 cents. Just one day. And still the parking lots are full and still the SUV's fill the roads. Credit cards must be running up to the limits as we speak.

Another trend that I have seen, is the issuing of Plastic Debit cards instead of paychecks. My wife got a summer job at a movie theatre and they don't give you paper checks, but put your money on a debit card. Ripe for the taking is the electricity were to go down, she'd not be able to get at her money. She is a cash and carry type, does not trust banks, or plastic cards. Soon paper money is going bye bye and then we will all be in a pickle if the poer goes out like the new Die Hard movie talks about.

[thomi]

So Bush sounds a little more reasonable on Iran//does he have a choice.????.attack Iran and gas will be $12 a gallon by nightfall!!
That will be the end of" happy" motoring, and King George the Dunce !!

[Nicholas Paredes]

There are always a lot of relevant points in these posts, and I really do look forward to them. As somebody mentioned, backing it up is good, but most of the readership around here is pretty familiar with the content, beginning with the Scientific American article a decade ago. I got rid of my car in 2005, with that chart in mind economically, but was ready to do so ethically as well.

Jim, perhaps a list of materials for people like that would be helpful — links, etc.

BTW, last week I mentioned that we are starting a not-for-profit, ecological urban community in Chicago. Building on a tradition of social professional development extending back nearly 50 years, we will look at issues, such urban farming and transportation, and ways to communicate this to local, lower-income citizens. As I reestablish the web domains this week, due to legal glitches, information will be forwarded. I would love to see somebody like Jim speak in Chicago, albeit in a more positive, constructive, manner — what can we do?

Somebody requested a blog which will be initiated soon. The center will be called Keystone Ecological Urban Community for Googling purposes...

The world will not end, but a lot of pain will most certainly be available for all (for a change). My question remains, how will this lead to a better world? Remember much of the world does not share in our prosperity, but we may share in their pain. So, even the discussion of issues like these is really a luxury.

[Nicholas Paredes]

Also, via TPM:

http://www.tpmcafe.com/blog/bookclub/2007/may/14/uncorking_a_discussion_on_pop

What do you think?

[Matt]

Almost 20 years ago, in my capacity as an asset manager for a life insurance company, I was unable to find any takers for an abandoned shopping center in a Texas refinery town. The action had moved to another part of town. The city was not willing to take over the center even if it was gifted to them. Imagine this scenario expanded exponentially and one can get a taste of the future. Society will come to have great disdain for asphalt parking lots once there is no fuel to dismantle them.

In George Monbiot's book Heat, his goal is to reduce emissions by 90% -- mainly through rationing. Interestingly enough, our world could work much better and be more enjoyable if we reduced emissions -- either voluntarily or involuntarily -- by 90%. A more likely scenario, however, is that many of us will be living in beat-up trailers and motorhomes on abandoned shopping center parking lots in warmer climates. If we're lucky, they will be ringed by port-a-johns.

[one Eye Open]

Jim,

If my elaborate Powerpoint show was enough to make you see that you are dead wrong, then there's no hope for you.

[one Eye Open]

was not enough