Shock and Awe

September 24, 2007
     With gasoline prices still skulking in the neighborhood of $3-a-gallon, despite oil priced above $80-a-barrel, political and economic leaders can pretend a little while longer that things are okay on the real life American scene. But between the dollar tanking in response to the Federal Reserve's Easy-Money-for-Big-Players policy, and the start of the home-heating season, you can be sure we are headed up to the $4-a-gallon range for happy motoring fuel before New Years.

     There is still broad disagreement among commentators as to whether we are headed into a wild inflation or a grim deflation, but the emerging pattern looks to me like a big ocean wave that gathers itself into a high cresting peak and then collapses under its own weight -- that is, a technical wild inflation resolving into the low slop of people unable to buy anything. However you cut it, and from whatever angle you look at it, the bottom line will be a steeply lower standard of living for most Americans.

     Of course, the US government's official inflation index is worthless, since it doesn't factor in the two vital commodities that normal people can't live without: food and gasoline. But measured against meaningful indexes, there's no question that the dollar is rapidly hemorrhaging value. Last week, the dollar reached new lows against the Euro ($1.40+ to one), oil ventured past $82-a-barrel, and gold topped $740 an a troy ounce. Food commodity prices have also been soaring, with the price-per-bushel of wheat topping $8 -- meaning more expensive Hot Pockets for American microwave food junkies in the season ahead.

     It appears that Fed Chairman Bernanke's interest rate cut was designed mostly to help bail out the big banks, which are in desperate need of cheap loan money to cover the losses that they are suffering from not being able to unload tons of worthless mortgage-backed-securities. Secondarily, the Fed governors might hope that their lowered rates would soften the blow of re-sets on millions of adjustable-rate mortgages -- but mortgage rates have de-coupled from Fed rates, so that may just be whistling past the graveyard. The next two months will see a much bigger wave of re-sets than months previous, and the re-setters themselves have to figure in some idea of real inflation if they don't intend to lose money on those contracts -- and whoever these parties are at the re-set end, after years of slicing, dicing, re-bundling and re-selling, they are not liable to be in a charity business of buying houses for people at a loss to themselves in interest rate differentials. So, bottom line again, those poor shlubs who signed "creative" mortgages are going to get re-set upward pretty steeply whatever the Federal Reserve does. The political fallout from folks getting tossed out of repossessed houses is sure to get worse.

    There's also no guarantee that the Fed rate cuts will rescue any big banks, investment houses, or hedge funds. Sooner or later, to either meet redemptions or admit losses, they'll all have to roll out those mortgage-backed securities, CLOs, and other fraudulent items currently hiding in their books, and ask the world what they're worth paying for. The world will answer by wrinkling its collective noses at the odor emanating from these bundles of financial offal, and that will determine whether some of these outfits stay in business or sink into the mire of financial history.

      For some of these outfits, like Bear Stearns, their fate looks already sealed. It was one thing for Bear Stearns to sponsor two loser hedge funds. The reason hedge funds are unregulated, by the way, is because in theory they are only patronized by extremely wealthy clients who are presumed to know what they are doing and whose choices are thought to not require regulation. But when Bear Stearns turned around a week after their funds tanked and blew a raspberry at these investors by saying "we registered these operations in the Cayman Islands where your lawyers can't touch us, so fuck you" -- when Bear Stearns did that, it took the short-end benefit of blowing off some legal fees over the long-term prospect that no one in their right mind would ever invest in a Bear Stearns fund ever again.

     Meanwhile, on the inflation side of the question is the hard-to-refute idea that a lot of non-American persons and organizations will probably not sit on a lot of saved dollars and dollar-denominated debt paper with said dollar losing value every day. At first, these dollars would come back into the US chasing assets-for-sale, meaning that foreigners could buy up a whole lot more American companies, giving them ownership in something tangible rather than a boatload of depreciating bonds. The Kingdom of Dubai tried this last week in making an offer to buy 20 percent of the Nasdaq. God knows what else might go up for sale out there. Maybe the Chinese will take the New York Yankees off ailing George Steinbrenner's hands. Maybe the Metropolitan Museum of Art will sell its whole collection to Japan -- they seem to like that stuff. But the net effect would be a flood of dollars coming back into the US chasing assets. Meanwhile, the price of a gasoline fill-up and a jar of jam would go ever higher for ordinary Americans.

     On the deflation side is what happens after this wave collapses, and that would be a national fire-sale of plain "stuff," as desperate families from Maine to Honolulu try to liquidate all the toys they purchased over the last twenty years in order to keep a roof over their heads and some food on the table -- cars, boats, snowmobiles, flat-screen TVs, leaf-blowers, iPods, you name it. A lot of that stuff will be either unsellable -- because there will be be way more sellers for these things than buyers -- or they will be sold at extreme bargain-basement discounts. The net result is what they call a deflationary depression. Too few scraps of money seeking too many things for sale. Nobody doing any business. Jobs and incomes dissolving in the process.

      All these things will be occurring against the background of an increasingly desperate energy predicament that will probably introduce many as-yet-unfactored problems into the equation -- such as, what happens as the oil export crisis gathers force and we begin to get supply-and-allocation disturbances. . . ? Or what happens when the US military starts competing with agri-business and commuters for oil? Or what happens geo-politically when the contest for dwindling oil supplies from the exporting nations begins to affect relations between the major importers, namely, China, the US, Japan, and Europe? Or what happens politically on the domestic scene as times get hard and the public looks for targets to direct their righteous wrath against?

     What all this comes down to is the sense of a nation absolutely fooling itself that it can carry on in the way it is used to. I'm hardly an advocate of the US giving up and committing suicide. What I advocate is a broad recognition that reality is compelling us to change our behavior. Reality is trying to tell us that we can't run an economy based on nothing more than investment schemes without directing investment into activities that produce things of value. Reality is telling us to be very worried about living arrangements that can only function with copious imports of oil from people who are disgusted with us. Reality is telling us that we can't divert our food crops into making motor fuels without people becoming unable to afford either fuel or food. Reality is telling us to redirect our culture more toward things-we-do-with-other-people and less toward things-we-do-with-new-things. Reality is telling us to shift from avoidance behavior and denial to engaging with reality in order to lead lives that are consistent with reality.

      The next several weeks are liable to be a time of great stress as these realities become increasingly undeniable. I imagine the public chatter will become increasingly delusional as the wave crests. When it it finally comes, the shock of recognition that we are a bankrupt nation will present itself at first as a great silence. The public's collective jaw will fall open, but no sound will come out. That will be the true moment of shock and awe.

Comments

[greenbeans]

"The clique part of this blog is too entrenched in the fear, and react accordingly. JHK has found a timely topic to sell paper - good for him and his message."

Gary49er, JHK is not selling fear.

Reminds me of the Harry Truman quote, "I don't give them hell. I just tell the truth about them and they think it's hell."

No picking up a "get out of jail free card" in regards to finding a quick fix. Good essay Jim.

[Gulland]

Greenbeans,

email me at gullandforge. It's at hotmail. you know the rest. I'm interested in talking with you and not bothering the rest of the posters here. Thanks for the link this morning. Gransfors Bruks are the best axes in the world. Not a bad business, either. Thanks.

Gulland

[Movenonup]

Found Dale lurking outside...

http://alesrarus.funkydung.com/images/troll.jpg

I found this to help us understand him a bit...

http://mosquito.25.free.fr/LFS/Fakes/en/Troll's%20Brain%20and%20memory.gif

And a little on his social psychology.

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://communitiesonline.homestead.com/files/troll_2.jpg&imgrefurl=http://communitiesonline.homestead.com/dealingwithtrolls.html&h=352&w=320&sz=18&hl=en&start=2&sig2=0nVeWtTzx99Oh9j5up76KA&um=1&tbnid=d87hspvT0HXc2M:&tbnh=120&tbnw=109&ei=UM32RufYNpKwjAHHmLmsDA&prev=/images%3Fq%3DTroll%26svnum%3D10%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26safe%3Doff%26sa%3DG

[Laura Louzader]

That we are probably heading for a deep recession and a major economic shift there is no question, because of the insane credit binge of the past 10 years, even if energy prices were level with what they were 10 years ago.

Escalating fuel prices, will, of course, greatly increase the pain and no one will escape from the pain, even those of us who started adjusting our lifestyles in anticipation of the end of cheap energy back in the 80s.

However, $4 a gallon for gasoline is survivable, even in combo with a severe credit crunch. Most Americans could substantially reduce their levels of "junk" consumption, both in money and fuel, pretty substantially without any loss of comfort other than the necessity of giving a few minutes' thought to how they live their lives and spend their money.

My mother and I were on the phone last night discussing the drastic increase in fuel and food prices, and the remorseless increase in house taxes in her St. Louis burb. I, of course, seized the opportunity to plug for a drastic change in lifestyle, mainly from her oversized, WW2 vintage house to a 1000 sq ft condo in Clayton. I pointed out that she would net a sizeable pile of cash out of the exchange, and be looking at much lower fuel bills and much lower taxes, in a very commercial (and VERY toney)suburb that has lower taxes as a result of so much commerce, while being able to park the car forever because she would be in an area with everything she needed within 3 blocks of her apt.

Living smaller could mean living much better as well as more cheaply, I pointed out.

Most people hate the way they live in this country. They hate the commutes, they hate having to book "playdates" for thier kids because you can't let kids walk along a 6-lane limited-access 40 MPH collector road, they hate having so many car trips, they hate the 30-mile commutes.

Western European denizens are accustomed to paying $7 a gallon or more for gasoline, and have never had a superfluity of space or fuel, yet they have lifestyles equal to ours in amenity and comfort, and better in terms of civil services such as affordable health care, high levels of public , and superior public schools.

The people who are going to suffer the most are the denizens of outer suburbia, but even they can make many adjustments without a real loss of comfort.

[John Powers]

Dr. James Schlesinger spoke at the ASPO 6 (Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas) and said: "We're all peakist now."

http://transitionculture.org/

[Movenonup]

http://www.shoutfile.com/v/gSfSsCpR/

Why People think Americans are stupid.

This may be scarier than Peak Oil.

[Hammermill]

Trifecta:
1. Peak Oil
2. Global Warming
3. U.S. debt (consumer & govmt)

Also, here's a great site, I saw it here first, but it's part of my daily RSS now.

http://suddendebt.blogspot.com/

[dale]

Nudge,
It's obvious you didn't even read the post on the Euro car I was referring to, based on your comments.

The assumption so many of you make here is that before we would make substantive, even drastic, changes in our life style, we would all start shooting at each other from our patios.

Even JHK is more optimistic than the likes of Scott or Nudge. Did you notice he seems well.....less apocalyptic lately? He seems to be substituting "mortgage meltdown" for "mad max hysteria".

There is simply no precedent in modern history for the crazy collapse scenarios. Consider the drastic lifestyle changes which occured in the old Soviet Union? Where is the collapse of order? Where are the battles in the streets?

Scott, so what's the point? What should we do, sign a nationwide suicide pact? Clearly, any chance of you participating in any real change is impossible, since you obviously think apocalypse is inevitible.

Why don't a few of you propose a possible solution, instead of whining incessently about how "boomers", or people who own SUV's or flat screen TV's have ruined your lives. Clear the crap out of your head, and stop smirking to yourself about how cool you think it's going to be when "those people" get what they have coming to them.

Either that, or just create a new religion around PO and its aftermath, and quit pretending you have any claim to reason

[scott]

There is simply no precedent in modern history for the crazy collapse scenarios. Consider the drastic lifestyle changes which occured in the old Soviet Union? Where is the collapse of order? Where are the battles in the streets?

Dale, There is no precedent in human history for the rapid ascent to civilizational dependence on an energy source comparable to crude oil for it's abundance, transportability, energy density and versatility. I have no idea why you keep trotting out the Soviet Union as they were not energy dependant because the former Soviet empire had no focus on economy so many of the people fended for themselves locally which is something we need to think about_ positively.

[scott]

"Clearly, any chance of you participating in any real change is impossible, since you obviously think apocalypse is inevitible."-Dale,

I never said apocalypse was inevitable just that it belongs in our collective psyche as a caution similar to the seven deadly sins of biblical reference.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_deadly_sins

There are good reasons that every civilization throughout history has had some version of apocalypse but it seems that this one has thrown caution to the wind.

Perhaps the abundance that an energy source of the magnitude of crude oil is responsible for the notion that growth can be infinite?

[sharon]

"The public's collective jaw will fall open, but no sound will come out. That will be the true moment of shock and awe."

And that'll be the moment that BushCo declares martial law, right?

[baileyalexander]

I pay into the health care system on this side of the pond and it works well.

It's called solidarity.

As we watched the brits wrap around the block at Northern, one can sense there's more than a wee backlash to our greed.

Also, re the reply on Sarko's Foreign Minister Kouchner. He was just playing with the words, as in, we should be 'prepared for the war, not engage in war'.

It's all a bit nonsense but that's why the French have words like 'adroit' to begin with...it's known to be a very specific language.

And Sarko and Bernie, aka, Dr. Jekyll want to play, and they will.

It's a very post American world.

But Merkel puts Sarko in his place, she's played her cards better than anyone on the political world stage in the last several months.

Analysis is a really important concept. You have less reason to react if you listen.

To the words.

Bay/Paris/Ecoutez

[bruiserbob]

Americans refuse to stop driving one mile less than they drive now. why? because we tell ourselves that we are special. we are a superpower and deserve a blessed life of abundance. Every single solution being proposed right now points maintaining our current level of driving instead of reducing it. My prediction? people will not drive less until gas hits 6 or 7 dollars a gallon. it is already that in most of central Europe.

Also, baileyalexander, i am sorry, but i did not understand one single word you wrote. i'm not being obnoxious, really, i just don't understand your post, but would like to.

[DaveL]

"Analysis is a really important concept. You have less reason to react if you listen."

wrong, all the analysis is complete, or should be if you've been paying any attention at all. it's just a matter of manuvering for position at this point.

anyone with a brain has found, or at least is looking for, thier own best place to weather the storm.

if it makes you feel better, i've recently gone back to looking. that's called adjustment, not analysis.

DaveL

[scott]

Here is an interesting take on the role of FEAR

http://www.fiendbear.com/Genie.html

[FARfetched]

BruiserBob, I have to disagree. People I know started driving less in 2005. Combining trips is becoming an ingrained habit. Sure, it's a small start, but at least it's a start. Why else would demand for gas be leveling off?

[baileyalexander]

It's late.

The Europeans pay more taxes, it pays for health care, etc. They understand that they must pay more for less collective strife.

BTW, the English are quite content with their health care.

I find Americans want to guard their marbles, they feel differently about the concept of money, hence the reason for their reticense to address the broken bits with our health care system. They've known for a very long time that a great deal of people don't have health insurance. They watch Sicko and gasp, alas, they are just incited, not educated.

Neither do they understand how health care works in other nations...or it would appear re comments i've read.

Sarko's guy was playing with words for the sake of attention. I'm sure you get that part. The French aren't too happy w/Bernie and refer to him as Dr. Jekyll, but Sarko wants to make a mark.

Merkel,whom I'm sure you know, is keeping Sarko in check cuz if there's a country that doesn't like to engage in war, it would be modern Germany, capito? And Germany and France are quite close re the EU.

Analysis is an important concept but one lost when multiple choice is intetegral to our education. I was responding the guy that didn't get what Bernie was saying and why.

Re the post world comment. I listen to Putin or rather watch him listening to the rest of the world, and well, where does that get his country? In quite a nice place.

England is doing fine, Europe is doing fine, so is Russia, etc, hence the comment about it being a very post American world.

Suddenly.

[Nicholas Paredes]

This inflationary/deflationary dynamic isn’t going to be predictable, nor ultimately controllable. Although the Fed’s actions for a couple of decades, since the Carter administration, has been to protect capital through rate interventions, the impossibility of the effort should likely sink in someday. I’m sort of surprised it has not happened, but attention to the DOW is simply diverting attention from the real story.

As the dollar sinks, our ability to repay the national debt, denominated in dollars, actually increases. Inflation allows people to pay local debt more easily. This is why most banks would rather keep inflation under control. The dynamic ultimately becomes an economic leveler. If one could pay off the house with barrels full of denominated dollars, it isn’t the home owner who suffers.

The larger issues of economic activity are identity related. We do have to look at our activities, and how we’ll feed the repopulated cities without as much oil. It will certainly not be pretty, but it is unavoidable ultimately. It would be nice to be able to plan rationally, but rational planning here tends to mean adding lanes rather than infrastructure.

We’re all in this together…

[DaveL]

haha, soon you will eat weeds, on both sides of the atlantic. yet, you (a generic you, including JHK) want ot listen to, and analize, the words of those who put you in a position to eat weeds.

better to learn wich weeds are good to eat. maybe better to dream about magic cars, help me dale.

keep listening, keep dreaming. life and the world is a dream. i love them both. and i've learned to love weeds.

DaveL

[Kevin]

Haven't commented on here in a while, but have still read this blog every week.

I wanted to comment on something else that was posted on Jim Kunstlers main page. There was an article from an engineer who worked for the oil companies in Great Britain that had something that was very interesting to me. This engineer stated that the global warming issue is being pushed on the public as a way to convince them to stop driving so much and using so much energy from politicians that know what is up with the energy issues, but know that at the same time it is political suicide to raise gasoline taxes and tell the public the truth about their lifestyle.

Just thought I would throw that out there, because to me it is proof that the leaders do know what is going on with our energy problems, but has to convince a general public (who are the majority) that were crazy enough to be sold the idea of interest only loans as being a great idea just a few years ago that they have to cut back on energy use. Our own greed will be our downfall, and the reason we have leadership that talks to us like a bunch of five year olds, is because, well, we behave like five year olds.

[Nudge]

Lovely post this week, Jim. Perhaps the end result among disaffected & clueless UPLers is going to be something like “Shock & Aweful”.

Gulland, I hope you stick with us .. you're an asset to the forum, regardless of what some of the naysayers here might opine. And you've got skills .. more about that later.

If no one minds (that's you, Jim!) I'd like to share a little about this weekend's visit to meet up with Greenbeans and to see a little of Saratoga Springs and the surrounding area.

Downtown Saratoga Springs has changed quite a lot since I was last there some 15+ years ago. Gone is the admittedly-ugly and decrepit Grand Union supermarket on Broadway. In its place is some sort of yuppie-magnet shopping center slash office building (with stores like Talbots and Banana Republic etc) with lots of empty office space overhead. Too bad the builders limited their thinking to renting it as office space instead of living space; it would be nice to be within such close walking distance of downtown. Alas, even with the supermarket gone now there's probably no similar place, within such close walking distance of downtown, where one can buy food staples & such. (Note: there might be; I wasn't there long enough to really explore the place.)

One of the nastier unplanned consequences of the size and placement of the giant shopping center is that it casts that whole part of Broadway into permanent shadow during the afternoon hours. The effect is like being in the concrete canyons of NYC. Presumably the shadow extends well into Congress park during the latter part of the afternoon, which is bad news because the park is quite lovely and has a lot of flora in it. No doubt the out-of-town designer never considered much of this.

So when you're standing at the intersection of Broadway and Spring street (now deep in shadow because of the stupidly out-of-scale shopping plaza across Broadway) and you head toward Circular street, what do you find off to your left but a giant and ugly parking garage just across the street from the park? Presumably the town planners, following their one and only imperative to be more retail-friendly, have concluded that the most important task facing them is how to cram more cars into the downtown area in the hopes that the vehicle occupants might incidentally spend a little money locally while there. Never mind that the whole reason for the people to go there in the first place is to enjoy the local charm (and not the Talbot's or Banana Republic stores, which, duh, can be found anywhere here in the UPL) and that less local charm might mean fewer visitors and thus less money spent there.

I'll have to come back again to explore more of Saratoga on foot just to see how pedestrian-friendly it really is. Of course, the place is now practically anywhere in the UPL. I stopped at a gas station to use the bathroom. Even though it was a pleasant day out, people were leaving their vehicles scattered haphazardly in the back part of the parking lot, with the engines idling, the windows closed, and the AC on.

From there Greenbeans and I headed out to Schuylerville along route 29. Once there, we looked around a bit and eventually found the old canal towpath. The signage leading to the towpath is not very good; I had the impression that the towpath was perceived by the town as being an afterthought to the real purpose of that particular road, which was to allow the lumpenproles access to the Hudson so they could use their gasoline-powered “recreational” toyz there.

The towpath was a nice hike. Further along toward the end of it (to the river channel lock located there) we saw more and more fallen trees in the water. Presumably the channel dead-ended somewhere around there, since the canal was been long unused. I have hiked on other canal towpaths, such as parts of the Erie canal and, out west, the Miami-Erie canal. On the opposite bank, the land went up steeply by 20 feet or so to a low plateau which looked to back onto a residential part of town. Some of the inhabitants there had built stairs leading down to the water. A few had bridges or homemade ferry rafts for crossing when needed. Some of the houses looked to have pretty good-sized yards. In another time and place, those would have been the locations for small inns or bed-and-breakfast type establishments for the many people working the canal.

The whole canal idea is pretty noteworthy for how low-tech it really was. Teams of guys dug the ditch using shovels, picks, and wheelbarrows. Water filled it. Mules pulled wooden barges along it. The whole system was quite a bit less complicated than, say, a railroad. No liquid or fossil fuels were required to run the system.

Later in the big E, Schuylerville may someday regain its usefulness as a water transportation hub, with local manufacturing made possible by the flows of Fish Creek and the Battenkill. For the moment, it seems to have some minor tourist cachet going for it.

Greenbeans introduced me to another of the prospective harem members after we finished our business in Schuylerville. Can't mention her name here because there's no telling if she reads this blog or not. Wow, all I can say is that if she's as smart as she is good-looking, then it would be quite the little extended family .. and we'd have to work out some arrangement for sharing Greenbeans, of course. ;)

Note to Brandon: you might want to seriously consider learning some kind of trade like what Gulland does. In another time and place (say, from prerecorded history up to less than a hundred years ago, and starting again sometime in the future, don't know exactly when) the blacksmith would necessarily be a very valued member of the town. In fact, the town might have built his home and shop and paid him to relocate there. They'd find him a place that was close to fresh water and easy to stock up on wood and charcoal or maybe even real coal.

The blacksmith will be needed again, especially when clueless folks from the driving utopia begin to realize, to their vast dismay, that it's actually a fair amount of work to remake something like your SUVs half axle into something more immediately useful, such as an azde, a hoe, an axe, or the barrel of a rifle. There will be quite a bit of scrap metal around us for quite a while into the future. Whether we know how to work it is a whole nother thing. One thing's for sure: you can't do stuff like that using “tools” of the kind that are purchased at Prole-Mart and toted around in the back of your crew-cab pickup truck.

Sorry all for the long post.

[Movenonup]

Welcome back DaveL.

I really wish I could learn how to eat weeds. I go online but I am never sure the pictures match my weeds. I gotta find someone local who would be willing to show me. Now that is a worthwhile skill!

Oh wait, that's negative thinking. I need to be positive and look for a better car. That would help with economic expaaaaansion. Weeds don't help with economic expaaaaansion. If only we all thought positive, nothing would ever collapse. JHK and this blog, you've brainwashed me! Help me Dale, I've become a cult member and they won't let me go. They keep sharing statistics and facts and shit and then I go out and read more and keep deciding to brace myself for impact and take solace and comfort from people who see things the same way.

Come out and play you troll.

http://liberalavenger.com/uploaded_images/troll-723065.jpg

You know you want to...

Isn't that what makes you tick (or is that tic {twitch or bloodsucking bug, you decide})?

[thal]

Movenonup,

Like bookends, there is symmetry to the 'Shock and Awe' going in, and going out.

Bailey,

Outside of exchange rates, Europe, just to focus on that, is sucking hind tit to Russia's natural gas pig. It might be instructive to measure things relative to relative paper valuations, but the truth is, in this world, we're all in a similar boat, not the same boat, but in another boat close by

[thal]

Movenonup,

http://mosquito.25.free.fr/LFS/Fakes/en/Troll's%20Brain%20and%20memory.gif

Very funny. I love brain diagrams.

[Kevin]

One other thing...I was in Las Vegas last weekend. I had a fun time, of course, but I never walked around that city before with the mindset that it is a place with no future. Mr. Kunstler has written about it before, so I may be regurgitating some of his writings, but you simply have to own a car to live there. When you get away from the strip, everything is a strip mall. And when I say everything, that includes the housing. I took a cab from my hotel to visit a friend and it took forever on a Saturday afternoon just to get to his apartment, which was still in Las Vegas proper. Every street is a four-six lane superhighway with a strip mall on every corner, that has either a massage parlor or something and gaming (drug store and gaming, Subway and gaming, drycleaners and gaming).

One morning about 5 AM, I stood out on my hotel balcony and just looked out at all the lights that eventually end at the vast desert that surrounds LV. Everything was relatively quiet at that hour and you can start to see just what an empty barren place it is without the cars and the people. I think it will be sooner than you think that this place will become a very weird ghost town. Almost a temple to the gasoline age as much as the pyramids in Egypt were a monument to another time in human history. It takes a huge influx of visitors from other areas of the country and even the world to make this place what it is. When the 40K/year "millionaires" lose their toys and suburban estates, how will they be able to come here and throw away money at the tables and at the ballet to make it work? I just hope future historians are kind to us as they write about the "tombs" in Las Vegas.