The Grass Roots Syndrome

October 8, 2007
Because I wrote a couple of books about the design of cities (and the shortcomings of suburbia), a lot of blather comes my way about what towns around the nation are planning for the future -- and, off course, I hear plenty on the subject in my own town, Saratoga Springs, New York, which is a classic "main street" type town. I also happen to travel a lot and actually see what's going on far from home. Almost everything I see and hear is inconsistent with what I think reality has in store for us.

Most American towns, including my own, are obsessed to the point of mania with the issue of parking and more generally the management of cars, and much of their spending is directed to those ends. Municipal leaders (and the public they serve) have no idea what kind of problems the nation faces with oil. Because life in the USA has worked a particular way all their lives, they assume that it will continue to operate that way. Not only will they be disappointed as happy motoring spirals into history, but they will create a lot mischief in the meantime in planning things based on faulty assumptions.

My own town, for instance, relies heavily on tourism, in particular tourism based on happy motoring. There is not the slightest apprehension among the people here, or our leaders in city hall, that automobile-based tourism may not be happening as soon as five years from now. All our political energy is being expended in fighting about what kind of parking structures we will build (with borrowed money) and where to put them, and how these things might incorporate some secondary uses, such as police offices. We have also been debating plans for the expansion of our modest convention center -- in connection with added parking structures. It seems to me that one of the first things to go as the US economy contracts, along with its energy supply, will be activities like boat shows and optometrist's conventions.

Now this town happens to be on a railroad line that connects New York City to Montreal. Before 1950, it was the main way that people came to this town. These days, we get one train a day in each direction. The trains are invariably late, and not just a little late, but hours late. The track bed is in miserable shape and, of course, Amtrak is a sort of soviet-style management organization. There is no awareness among the public here, or our leaders, that we would benefit from improving the passenger railroad service, and around the state of New York generally there is no conversation about fixing the railroads. (Governor Elliot Spitzer is preoccupied these days with arranging to give driver's licenses to people who are in the country illegally.) We are going to pay a large penalty for these failures of attention.

Another aspect of all this has to do with our assumptions about land development. Here in my town, and elsewhere around the country, the assumption is that suburban development will continue just as it has the past sixty years. This assumption is shared both by the developers themselves and their opponents. The developers expect the current "downturn" to reverse before long. From the opponents' point of view, the assumption is based on their legitimate fears and heartaches about what they've seen heedless development do to the American landscape. Consequently, whatever mental energy is left after the parking debates get tabled is dedicated to fighting over projected suburban expansion.

My personal view about this is apparently radical -- though I am a man of modest habits and philosophy. My view is that the suburban project, per se, in the United States is over, finished. Like, totally. You can stick a fork in it. What you see is basically all that we're going to get. Not only do we not need anymore of it, but we have way too much of what is already on the ground. We don't need anymore suburban housing pods, and the ones already out there are going to hemorrhage value (and usefulness) as far ahead as anybody can imagine. We need more retail like we need 300-million holes in our heads. Ditto suburban office capacity. Ditto new roads and highways.

The projects that people see under construction now are things that went through the torturous permitting process at minimum a year ago and generally even further back. I would imagine that many of the developers of these few remaining projects -- whether they are condo villages or strip malls or chain store "power centers" -- are in deep melancholy as they read the news and desperately search for tenants. Their lenders must be equally depressed -- and in some cases cutting off further injections of capital. What remains is what bankers call "the workout" -- where the financial chips fall when people's hopes and dreams collide with reality's separate agenda.

In connection with the imminent collapse of our investments in suburbia is the fate of all the laws and codes that have governed the creation of it. I think it is a waste of effort at this point to attempt to reform what we generally refer to as "the zoning laws." They will simply become irrelevant. As we get in trouble with oil, and driving becomes more of a problem, it will be self-evident that regulations geared to keeping cars happy can no longer be followed. My guess is that for a period of time we will see a condition of stunned paralysis in the council chambers and planning boards. Eventually, if we are lucky enough to retain effective local governance, a new consensus will emerge that will be more reality-based by necessity.

In saying this, I imply that societies go through cycles of collective thinking that range from being fairly consistent with reality to being dangerously out of whack with it. We're at the latter end of the cycle these days. One of the symptoms of this is the fact that so many Americans believe the only thing wrong with America is George W. Bush, and that if only we could wiggle out of "his" war, every day would be Christmas, with Nascar around-the-clock, time-outs for shopping sprees down the aisles of the Target store, 5000-square-foot houses for all (for $750 a month), and three BMWs parked in the driveway. . . with fries, and supersize it!

In reality, there's a lot more wrong with how we live and how we think about how we live than the mere presence of George W. Bush at the head of the federal government. Our expectations are deeply out of phase with what the earth can provide for us and what the future has in store for us, and this failure of our collective imagination goes down to the grass roots.

Comments

[Smankolio]

Nudge:

Sure, there's nothing wrong with doing your two-bits worth to live differently, if it'll make you feel better about yourself. I just don't see how growing your own vegetables somehow separates you from everyone else, other than giving you the ability to make a better salad. If you really took an inventory of EVERYTHING you have and EVERYTHING you do, you'd see that unless you pull a Ted Kaczynski in Montana, your efforts to "save the planet" or "save civilization" will amount to little more than a hobby.

[Nudge]

Smanky, now you're getting it. What makes you think I was trying to save the rest of the herd from themselves? Especially the most clueless of them? No, I'd want to get practice on the gardening stuff NOW rather than later because it helps my own survival potential and that of my friends / family / household / whatever.

[Movenonup]

Smankolio,

How about trying to save yourself?

Congressman: Dollar Could Collapse To Absolute Zero

http://www.propagandamatrix.com/articles/october2007/081007_dollar_collapse.htm

I don't think folks here are generally holier than thou with their efforts in these directions.

We just had a discussion occur on this yesterday evening.

You sure sound hopeless and maybe depressed. There is good reason to be.

[Movenonup]

Here is the bottom line-- If I am told I have cancer I can give up, lay down and die. Or I can try to fight it. You never know, it just might go into remission or you might cut it (radiate it, chemo it)out and live on.

No Pollyanna here, I am a human beast who wants to survive and I want my son and loved ones to survive. Gotta try.

[Nudge]

Good day, MOU. Speaking of the value of the dollar going down to nothingness in the near future, have you seen this? It makes the current RE bubble pale in significance:
http://pricedingold.com/us-dollar/

[Dr.Doom]

To me, what screams between the lines of Jim's posts are the real human effects of The Discontinuity approaching. Universities will close due to lack of public funds, services of all kinds will simply disappear, food will become both scarce and very expensive, unless subsidized with price supports ala the former USSR. Rationing of fuel, food. To me this spells economic collapse, and it should be rapid, as all houses of cards fall.

As a member of the academy, I will feel no remorse for those studying the esoteric fields of "communication", tourism and entertainment industries, etc. It will be sad to see a loss of the arts and sciences, but hopefully some of it will survive. I really don't see how we can expect major technological breakthroughs in such a depaperate environment. There may be a malaise (to bring back a Carter term) that will last quite a long time, like when Rome finally fell.

So, in some luckier places, life may go on for awhile relatively unchanged, but those living there will likely know and grieve for the others "out there". And out there will be a scary place, with lots of folks trading recipes for "long pig", etc.

[Movenonup]

Hi Nudge,

After I was done being terrified, that was a really interesting site. Thanks!

I do feel paralyzed by it tho!

[Gulland]

in the immortal words of Arlo Guthrie:

"And can you, can you imagine fifty people a day,I said
fifty people a day walking in singin a bar of Alice's Restaurant and
walking out. And friends they may thinks it's a movement."

Smankolio, someone has to start the movement. The fact that I live as I do is not going to change the world if the other 6,999,999,999 people continue to do as they are doing. Though, I must admit that I feel pretty good about my lifestyle, but I'm not doing it for any one else's benefit. Also, I am not trying to force this lifestyle on anyone else. People will make their own choices, and informed choices are always better, as are examples set by those who are living well without the regular baggage associated with those who are 'well off.'

Nice analogy, MOU.

Gulland

[Nudge]

Mmm, as near as I can figure, that extrapolated downward curve means a couple different things:

Almost certain likelihood that within 5 years or so the dollar will be worth approx 20% of its current value – and right now the CAD is worth more in gold. You know what this is going to do to everyone's ability, or lack thereof, to save for the future. (Just think of the tourism brochures: “Come to America, the new Zimbabwe!”)

Strong possibility that the USD will be officially devalued and converted into a new currency (the Amero?) at something like a 10:1 or 20:1 USD-to-Amero ratio. For them not familiar with the manipulations of fiat currencies when the governance needs to fleece the proles, just look at how often the Soviets did it to their own people. (And in an eerie parallel, the US now has a greater percentage of its own population behind bars than the Soviets ever did.)

MOU, I for one feel confident that your imperative to survive will overcome the fears of looming economic catastrophe. :)

[Dave]

no problem. when the cars and busses stop, the optometrists can go to thier conventions by river barge.

actually, i think that this is part of a system with connections to both the saint lawrence seaway, via lake champlain, and the mississippi(sp?) via, the great lakes somehow. which is kind of cool in its' own right. it probably was an important means of shipping food into NYC at one time, when NYC's population was maybe half a mil. not to mention that there's vertually no farm land left within a 100 mile radius of manhattan.

I think that metro NYC is at about 20 mil. population reduction is going to be a bitch.

the upper hudson is full of pcb's the last i knew though. might want to think twice about eating too many of the fish.

anywho, smoke 'em if ya got 'em.

http://www.nyscanals.gov/maps/index.html

[Nudge]

Dr. Doom, I'm afraid you're dead-on with your comments above (the 15:08 post) about the real-life effects experienced by those living through TLE. Some of the early effects are probably here already in terms of lowered or stagnant funding levels in various places.

For instance, in the small town where I live, the town hasn't been able to do its annual springtime pothole-filling job so far this year. Property taxes are ratcheting upward right while more and more houses are vacant or in foreclosure .. wages are staying flat (or declining in real terms) as inflation surges above 10%. I think of this as something like the Big Squeeze.

It's not hard to find ways to insulate yourself from some of the effects of the Big Squeeze, if you can .. learn gardening, grow at least /some/ of your own food .. insulate the bejesus out of your dwelling, add a woodstove if you can .. take a job that's as close to home as you can manage .. bicycle or walk to work if you can .. get as much of your food as possible from sources close to home, like farmers markets or even directly from the farmers themselves .. cut your electricity usage in half or more .. and so on.

Doing even one or two of these things will leave you at least a little better insulated from the effects of the Big Squeeze than those who try to keep continuing the sort of nonsense we make fun of here.

[Dave]

ya, pretty cool. we'll be able to get whale oil down to NYC from labrador. of course there will be no whales left, but that's ok.

http://us.st11.yimg.com/us.st.yimg.com/I/landfallnav_1966_64142882

[Dave]

http://lakechamplainpub.com/cruising_guide_alone.asp

i'm ordering this book. really, i am.

[msjanket]

Over the weekend, I visited tag sales and picked up a butter churn, push lawn mower, darning needles, flintlock rifle, and a coonskin cap. I'm weaning my kids off chips, sodas, and substituting spring water and wild berries.
Laugh you may, I've felt this way for 35 years. Jimbo, you done it to me...thank you for all. Economic Armageddon, here we come.

[wombatmissile]

MOU has now decided to movenonup to Alex Jones? Sous rature and now this. Brilliant! You are a genius! I'm not sure but I think Jones may even be worse than sous rature. You're really outdoing yourself here. However, Movenonup, if you think Alex Jones is good... *phew* I don't need to say Gary Busey, do I? Paralyzed? Nope not yet. Not until you've seen all of this:

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4323568130077581710&q=busey+alex+jones&total=3&start=0&num=100&so=0&type=search&plindex=0

Looks like they even smoked more crack than Jr.

[asoka]

Just want to note that it is over. The war is over. Didn't need 51 votes, didn't need 66 votes. It only needed one man with a conscience: David Obey, chairman of the Appropriations Committee who says no supplemental will be coming out of his committee.

No $200 billion supplemental, no war.

Thank God, that nasty war is going to die a natural death.

[jay]

I work in a small town grocery store, where the measure of a man is a F350, etc. etc. I don't know how many times I've heard "as soon as we get Bush out of office and a democrat president....." We installed electric wheelchairs for the customers because they have lost the ability to walk....

[msjanket]

Over the weekend, I visited tag sales and picked up a butter churn, push lawn mower, darning needles, flintlock rifle, and a coonskin cap. I'm weaning my kids off chips, sodas, and substituting spring water and wild berries.
Laugh you may, I've felt this way for 35 years. Jimbo, you done it to me...thank you for all. Economic Armageddon, here we come.

[wombatmissile]

"Enemies are friends in reverse, and they show us things about ourself we need to change and that's why they're here."

...

"The poor people in the middle east. The Islams and the Muslims, and uh, the Arab and the Palibani Afghanistans, Pakistanis, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Turkey, Isreal, the Palestinians, they all have a purpose on this earth, but they're not using the purpose god gave them to use, they're using the fear that they have by not using god's purpose. And the best way to stop wars is to have women fight naked because if women fight naked and men stand aside, the women will end up having a Tupperware party and we wouldn't have a war."

...

"Power is the ultimate achievement."

--Gary Busey ("An Investigator of a lot of Different Things")

[The rest is really good, but you should really hear it from Busey himself.]

[Dave]

i'll give ya $5 for the coon skin cap.

[wombatmissile]

That is incredibly, incredibly, that-old-sixties-word, heaaavy."

...

"What you just said really was advanced... On that line of what you were saying..."

--Alex Jones (Another Investigator of Things)

_____________________________

"A lot of negative going along in our neighborhood."

...

"Be True to yourself."

...

"That's what fame is all about. We are here to learn truth. We are here to learn unconditional love. We are here to accept all things. And know God will take care of us all."

..

"Fear is a dark room where the devil develops his negatives. And the word F-E-A-R that spells fear? That stands for false-evidence-appearing-real."

...

"God all is."

--Gary Busey

[wombatmissile]

Busey is my new hero. Who's with me? I know MOU is with me!

"At the end is your spirit" and "the ocean is your emotion." (And a lot of other things....)

"Oh, I've been compared to Paul."
...
"I mean, everybody can be compared to Paul."
...
"I was born with the energy of ten men."
...
"IT'S GREAT TO BE ALIVE!!!!!!!!!!!"

[Dave]

busey mutherfuckin' da man!

[wombatmissile]

Word. Hahah...

"The past is history. The future is a mystery. And now is a gift!"
...
"Maybe the greatest oxymoron of them all, is Holy War. Which is not in god's plan."
--GB

[comrade simba]

Yep, gas is down to 2.53 a gallon here from a high of 3.35. That means peak oil is bullshit. What mortgage collapse? My bank is still open. What slowdown? Construction crews are always looking for new hands.

This type of thinking is sooo stupid. I come here on monday and read the post then have to wade through all the peak oil deniers when reading the comments. Gets old. I for one have not forgoten how no thought at all was given to fuel costs, back in the 1 1/2 buck a gallon days. Life changed in real terms once it broke 2 bucks and stayed there or worse. I factor in fuel costs for everything now, and I know I'm not alone.

Kunstler has a clever way of pointing out that we need to open our eyes and see if what is going on around us is capable of continuing. Harbingers of doom point to collapse to illustrate powerdown - the Big Squeeze Play.
We'll get out of this Iraq situation - it will just wind down. We'll find a comfortable smaller place to live when we walk away from the ARMed McMansion. Eat more chicken at home and going out for BBQ will be a luxury again. You wear the clothes until they wear out. The Goodwill Boxes get rattier stuff tossed in them. Much of the great contraction isn't really that noticable on the surface. If you don't look for it you miss it. But if you see what is going on it won't be such a mystery why you feel so beat down.

I can gain energy from chucking baggage to stay ahead of the squeeze. If I learn to live without it I don't have to suffer when it goes away.