A Christmas Eve Story

     Two things happened over this weekend before Christmas that jarred me a little. One was when an old friend said I sounded crazy, and the second was when I read the galley proof of Dmitry Orlov's forthcoming book, Reinventing Collapse (New Society Press, Spring 2008).

     I ran into my old friend "G" on our town's main street, Broadway, on Saturday afternoon and we ducked out of the drizzle into a nearby coffee shop to catch up. G had worked the past twenty-five years in the software industry and recently bought the company that employed him. He was consumed now with plans for "growing" this company. I made a point not to antagonize him with my Long Emergency notions, since his obvious mental investment in the wish for a reliable "growth" economy was a bulwark of his current world view. But the conversation did get around to the various troubles in the capital markets and the possible connection of this with the global oil predicament.

     G doesn't believe we have a problem with oil. He said, if the fuel efficiency of every American vehicle on the road was increased five percent, we wouldn't have to import any oil. This assertion was, shall we say, not consistent with anything I understood about the situation, and I said so, pretty much in those words, to avoid ramping rhetorically into debate mode. G said, "Do the math." I suppose G had read this "formula" somewhere and was impressed by it. "The Market," he said, would "take care" of our motor fuel problems. Just wait and see. We talked for a while about getting the railroads working again. G said it would never happen. "This isn't Europe."

     I was content to let is drop, but G then said. "You know, you've been predicting all these catastrophes for years now, but we're still here, the cars are all rolling down Broadway out there, and life is going on. You're beginning to sound like a crazy person." It didn't bother me especially that G thought my my ideas were outlandish so much as being comprehensively written off by an old friend as a crazy person, someone who... I dunno... rummages through dumpsters and talks to himself on the street without any sign of a cell phone in hand. I didn't hasten to defend myself. G obviously needed to feel that the world would continue functioning like a well-oiled machine now that he was responsible for an operation that employed a hundred other people. We parted agreeing to acknowledge a difference in our view of things.

     Dmitry Orlov's publisher sent me the galley proof to get a blurb for the dust-jacket, and I'll furnish one in short order because Reinventing Collapse is an exceptionally clear, authoritative, witty, and original view of our prospects. The thesis is that the United States is headed for troubles as broad and deep as the ones that brought down the Soviet system in Russia, though we will get there via a somewhat different route. Orlov has been in the privileged position of living under both systems at critical times, and the parallels are striking, but the differences even more so.

      The Soviet experience was a collapse of consensual reality as much as of economy. Nobody could continue to support the credibility of a one-party, centrally-planned, "command" economy best represented by the joke: "We pretend to work and they pretend to pay us." An economy in which nobody had any real stake other than ideological finally ground ignominiously to a halt. Once the state surrendered its authority, the society was stripped of assets. The social safety net dissolved. A lot of people on the margins slipped through the cracks and died. Eventually, the Russian economy (and government) reorganized on a different basis -- largely because its remaining oil resources and annual production exceed its domestic consumption. So, this reorganized new oil-exporting state, with its shocking poles of extreme wealth and poverty, will go on for a while until the oil is gone, and then it will face more transformations.

     The comparison with the American situation is chilling. For all its gross faults, Soviet Russia was ironically better prepared for economic collapse and political turmoil than we will be. For one thing, all housing there was owned by the state, and allocated under bare nominal rents, so when the economy collapsed, people just stayed in their apartments. Nobody got evicted. There was scant private car ownership in pre-1990 Russia, so gasoline allocation problems did not paralyze movement. Train service was excellent and cheap, and the cities all had a rich matrix of underground metros, on-street electric trams, and trolley-buses, which continued to run even when central authority flickered out. There was no suburban sprawl to strand and isolate people (in homes owned by banks, that can be taken away after the third monthly failure to make a mortgage payment). Official Soviet agriculture was such a fiasco for half a century that the Soviet people were long-conditioned to provide for themselves. For decades, 90 percent of the food was coming from tiny household gardens, wherever it was possible to grow stuff. When America's just-in-time supermarket resupply system wobbles, and the Cheez Doodles disappear from the WalMart shelves, few Americans will have a Plan B.

     Perhaps most striking is that the Soviet collapse provoked almost no bloodshed (at least in Russia itself). The political failure was so comprehensive that the party leadership didn't even have the will to defend its prerogatives anymore, and for a while politics simply slipped into a vacuum -- until Mr. Putin came along and revived the oil industry and managed to get the police back on a payroll that inspired them to do their jobs. Meanwhile, the tremendous drain of the Soviet armed forces and all their equipment -- apart from the nuclear arsenal (as far as we know) -- was allowed to wither away, along with its monumental demands on the nation's resources.

     Whatever other differences there may be between Soviet Russia and Clusterfuck Nation, a big one here is that our domestic oil consumption long ago exceeded our production capacity, and when we run into just a little supply trouble with our oil imports (apart from mere rising prices) it will shake the foundations of our economic life. We are stuck with a physical infrastructure for daily living that has no future in an oil-scarce world. Our cities, for the most part, have imploded internally. Our public transportation is grossly unbalanced on the side of private cars and airplanes utterly dependent on imported oil. At the moment, our capital finance sector is cratering in the aftermath of an unprecedented surrender of responsibility in the management of securitized debt -- an event that may end up as a curious parallel to the looting of assets that occurred in the Soviet twilight.

     The biggest difference, though, between Soviet Russia and America today is the psychology of the people. Soviet citizens were prepared for trouble by lifetimes of comparative hardship. I won't even go into the Stalin terror and the agony of World War Two. In more recent Soviet times, money meant little in a system without real shopping -- but maintaining personal networks based on mutual trust or strength-of-character was the greatest asset in acquiring life's necessities. Americans didn't need political dictators to whip us into line -- we volunteered to become a nation of TV zombies. Our fantasies are arguably more disabling than the mere cognitive dissonance that reigned in Soviet times. Liberty itself has allowed the American public to freely choose passivity, illusion, and incompetence. Anyway, when it comes out in 2008, Dmitry Orlov's book will deserve the attention of whatever thoughtful people remain in the land of the free and the home of the brave.

     It was disheartening, of course, to be written off as sounding "like a crazy person," by an old friend. I don't doubt that his perception is genuine. I'm prepared to live with the disconnect between what my friends believe and what I think. I even reserve a portion of my mind for the possibility that their view may be more realistic than mine -- but I won't torture myself about it. Someday, surely, I'll meet this old friend again and perhaps he'll say something like "...things didn't work out quite the way I expected...."

     In the meantime, Christmas Eve is upon us, truly my favorite night of the year (Hebrew though I am), and I am very fortunate to be going to a warm house full of people tonight where the wassail will flow. I'll be back next week with a review of 2007 and my predictions (ha!) for 2008. In the meantime, God bless us every one.

   

Comments

[badmike]

JK - I had one of those "I can relate moments" when you talked about your friend calling you "crazy". My family has practically ostracized me for expressing my beliefs about "Peak Oil". I think what we're looking at is the psycology of previous investment". BTW I have as much if not more to lose than most other people. I bought into the current Real Estate Bubble, the stock market meltdown of 2001 as well as every other Ponzi scheme they have ever come up with. I own a Luxury SUV that I paid almost $50,000 for and I've worked as a Real Estate Agent ("Selling Las Vegas Everyday") in Vegas for 15 years For me to suddenly quit my brokerage & move to San Diego and go into the Solar Energy Business -
( www.heritagesolar.com )
makes me look like the ultimate loon.

Yesterday I went to the airport (San Diego Intl) which is 40 miles from my home in Oceanside to pick up my son-in-law. He is a Berkeley MBA and he has no interest in me informing him that his MBA and high powered job is about to be sacrificed in the coming meltdown. After dinner I mentioned Peak Oil and he asked me what that meant and I gave him a brief description plus the bell graph and a casual forecast of the trouble that falling supplies could spell out for the American Economy. I noticed my wife giving me that "don't start that sermon" look. I know that he was being polite listening to my little spiel. So I let it drop and I have made a personal commitment not to mention it to another soul...at least until after the Holidays.

Next year though...

In the meantime Jim, I wish you and yours all the best and keep writing because right now, the choir needs it.

[XER]

dave,

Thank you for posting the essay by Mr. Orlov. I'm shocked I missed that one. I thought I had read everything of his floating around in the electricity.

"The obvious suspicion is that these people, who drive death-cars and live in death-houses, make every day a bath day because they feel compelled to present an odor-free facade, out of fear that the subliminal stench of death they cannot help but sense wafting all around them might be emanating from them."

I thought about things like this when I lived in the North Georgia Mountains, on the North Carolina border. I had a cot, a sleeping bag (rated for 25 F) not good, and a lean to. A coleman stove, cofee pot, and a few rubbermade storage containers filled with very basic stuff. Bathroom was a straddle trench, the creek 45-55 F was for bathing and washing cloths, the spring for drinking. Of course, there was a guitar. Very important. The key was the pace of life living like. It makes sense. The rhythm was very pleasing. Reading during the day was relaxing. The fires at night were wonderful. I did not have a watch or a clock. No telephone. I went to town every 10 days to get food, and call my parents to let them know I was alive. I had one snow storm. This was a little rough for a California dude, but, I held in there. I never got sick.

My property bordered 600 acres of forest service land, my nearest neighbor was a mile away. He owned 600 acres himself. I spent Feb 1996 to October 1996 living like this. I liked it, and then I built the house. I cultivated three acres of medicinal herbs, all under biodynamic methods. I sold it for a profit and left. After building the house, it was never the same. It was a nice house. All wood. The countertops were even wood from naturally felled white pines on the property. It was very comfortable. I had a very nice out door shower. The girls loved it.

I am looking forward to living like this again in the San Juan Islands, starting next year. I will live in a cabin this time on a fuctioning farm. This is it for me. Too cold for a lean to in Washington! I am going to live this way for the rest of my life.

[Uncle Remus]

I know this is silly, but it occurs to me that there is a disconnect (duh!) in the consumers min between what comes out of the gas pump and what/where the source of that refined product is. Pretty much the same disconnect that exists for virtually very other consumer item, especially food.

Perhaps a "Made with Oil Imported from Unfriendly Countries" or "Blood Oil/War Oil" sign on each pump might be in order.

JHK, you are crazy. But you deal with it so well.

As I sat in front of my fire the other night, watching the flames and shadows dance, I thought out loud to the wife that Bill Gates warm isn't any better than my warm.

CFN Dogma will not convert. Getting people to ask why about themselves is fundamental to any last minute course correction.

[dale]

Nudge,
As a matter of fact I was engaged in Transit Oriented Development for a few years, I did the financial and design review of several hundred units during that time. Usually in groups of 50 units or more. I am an infill developer exclusively.

When the math that can be done on a simple calculator tells Nudge the transportation system is going to collapse is Oh....5 years or so, a smart guy might start to ask himself why that is not confirmed by the much smarted guys with better calculators and more money who are not betting the transportation system will collapse in five years or so. But not Mr. Nudge....to him the numbers are so obvious he just wonders why all the smart guys with better calculators can't see what he sees.

[EEofDC]

Since the CFN herd has moved on to JHK's latest, I'll add my last comment from his previous post.

For CFNers, esp. Soluble Fish, HIP, and, inadvertently, Gulland:

"The economic difficulties our industrial society faces are symptomatic of the transition from economies that maximize production and are based on non-renewable resources to economies that minimize waste, recycle everything, maximize renewable resources,and are managed for sustained-yield productivity. Farmers have always understood what sustained-yield productivity means--now we have to teach it to economists."

Hazel Henderson
The Politics of the Solar Age:
Alternatives to Economics (1988)

From Fritjof Capra's Foreword to her book:
The gross national product, for example, which is supposed to measure a nation's wealth, is determined by adding up indiscriminately all economic activities associated with monetary values, while all non monetary aspects are ignored. Social costs, like those of accidents, litigation and health care, are added as positive contributions to the GNP, rather than being subtracted. Henderson speculates that those social costs may be the only fraction of the GNP that is still growing."

And this was 20+ years ago.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_b/105-8923454-1386857?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=The+Politics+of+the+Solar+Age&x=21&y=19

I am oft-reminded by a friend and neighbor of mine--a very successful dentist and dental surgeon, who has been bullied and had his living circumstances rendered horrible by a private university that has trashed our neighborhood and turned it into a student ghetto--who five or six years ago made the point that unfettered growth in any organism ultimately becomes cancer and can kill the host organism.

Merry Christmas, everyone!

[Nudge]

Uhh, Dale, you've made a tragic error in your assumptions (perhaps by not reading the dialog here too closele) but I'm not going to tell you what it is. :) Figure it out for yourself.

Share more about this transit oriented development, please. Did this include the type like condos above stores, mixed income housing, and so on?

This morning I drove out to one of the hillier cities around here to look at a small house for sale at a low price. It's a bank-owned foreclosure that's been vacant since at least last February. Lots of downsides: the houses are so close that there's little privacy, the house itself probably needs $30K in work to make it nice inside, and it's in a neighborhood that looks like gang turf. Yet it fits almost all the good criteria I could name from knowing a little about what the low-energy future might be like: it was a good place to live before car usage was universal, meaning that it's within walking distance to downtown, to the commuter rail into Boston, to grocery stores & restaurants; there were playgrounds & parks nearby, some small college, a firehouse nearby, nice wannabe Victorian houses further up the hill; it was a fairly ethnically diverse neighborhood too.

Dale, there are degrees of collapse, and there's a certain inelasticity built into a lot of the fuel usages here in the UPL. I know any number of people who would love to slide sideways into the seat of a little hybrid like mine, but most of them are stuck with other isses that make this sort of switch impossible. Often they've got to haul several kids at a time (forget that in the insight) but most often they're stuck with a paid-off gas-guzzler that can't be sold or traded in for much money at all, particularly during a time when everyone else is trying to get rid of guzzlers too. Also many are stuck with commutes that cannot be improved upon.

Dale, would you consider it “collapse” if gasoline were to cost $6/gallon here in the UPL? (BTW that would suddenly put a lot of people in the sorry position of not being able to afford to drive to work anymore.) How about $10/gallon?

Collapse here isn't so much about the fuel simply ceasing to flow as much as it's a matter of altering the price structure enough that those who are excessively dependent on fuel (ie, them with long commutes and/or inefficient vehicles and/or inefficient homes) will be forced to drop out of the usage. How much of a disaster is it when 20% of the working population can no longer get to work reliably, when public transportation costs have risen along with fuel prices, and when it's impossible to lay out the money to develop new transit systems?

[XER]

UR,

Shame on you. The US occupation in the ME has nothing to do with oil! We are there to grant them democracy, and the rule of law. Unfortunately, many of them have to be killed, maimed and made homeless while being instructed in how to live in peace and freedom. After all, inside every Arab, is an American trying to get out. Somtimes we have to torture, I mean instruct them in order for them to give birth to their "inner American." Occasionally we transport them to secret places like Egypt or Bulgaria for field trips to further their educational perspective in democracy and the rule of law. Of course, these field trips are kept secret for their security and well being. They are given excellent medical care and plenty of nutritious food. America would never invade or occupy another country in order to steal from them, because we are the Good Guys.

I think we should decorate our gasoline pumps with flags and patriotic slogans.

[Uncle Remus]

But XER, I didn't mention any place specific...

[treegirl]

Live long and prosper, Jim! May all the blessings of perceiving the "extraordinary within the ordinary" be yours in this magical season and always!

We just experienced 5 very long days of no power following an ice storm in the midwest. It made me truly appreciate the Scandinavian tradition of celebrating the return of the sun following the winter Solstice! We heated our 1917 farmhouse with green logs burned in the old coal furnace (which had been retrofitted for diesel but has been unused since last year due to the high prices). That required 24 hour stoking with an astronomical amount of wood (we haven't found a source to buy coal, though thousands of tons are railed in daily to run the power stations) to keep the pipes from freezing.

Anyone who says that civilization can't disappear in a single generation is really on fumes intellectually. We started going to bed at 6pm for lack of anything else to do, reading by candlelight is difficult and wasteful, and it was only about 40F so not too comfortable anyway. There are still some farmhouses out here that have yet to be reconnected. I am still exhausted even a week after being back "on line" so it is really almost unimaginable surviving for 2 weeks. What is more alarming to me is that I am mentally much more ready than 99% of the people I know, in fact, I have spent a lifetime detesting the "immersive ugliness" of our physical and mental American landscape.

BTW any of you who have not visited Jim's EOTM site are missing the most side-splitting funny stuff on the web. The "scotch tape" entry is priceless but it's hard to pick a favorite.

Thanks again Jim, and blessings to all of you and yours!!!

[XER]

Nudge,

$10 a gallon? Don't be silly. There is plenty of gasoline to go around. I'm sure the price will drop back to $1 or less, as soon as the really smart people build more refineries. We have so much oil here in the USA, that we could put OPEC out of business. All this talk of collapse and trouble for our economy, which by the way is the envy of the world. It must be, because President George W Bush of America says it's so. If we could just stop those damn enviornmentalist wack jobs, we would be swimming in oil! So, my dear quit worrying, and remember that we have very smart businessmen and honest hard working leaders that will take care of everything. We are Americans, nothing bad can happen to us. We are blessed more than any other nation. John Hagee told me this when I saw him on television last night. Don't mind what people like that James Kunstler man says, he is crazy. Now come on outside and help me load up the Escalade with all the Christmas returns. I want to get to the Mall of Freedom before the crowds get big. I hate waiting in those long lines at the Home Style Buffet, it's really hard on my feet, the gout you know.

[Nudge]

XER, wow, OK, I'll go along if only because I've never ridden in a 'sclade before. That Dale character doesn't have anything bigger than a Subaru, sorry. Mass = class! I'll even buy the coffee, OK?

[XER]

Nudge,

When we get back from the Mall of Freedom. I know it was 20 miles further from the Mall of Democracy, but the buffet is so much nicer, and has 29 meat items, instead of the measly 17 at the Mall of Democracy. Besides, there's been a a lot of Mixicans and colored's over at the Mall of Democracy lately.

Anyway, I thought we could stop by Cheney Marina Sales, and check out that new boat I was telling you about for the lake this summer.It's the one with the two 508 CID blown Chevrolet's. Dick told me I needed to fill up at the airport, because she needs aviation grade gasoline. I told Dick that stuff is a expensive nowadays. He chuckled and said that the prices were only temporary, See, he says the market cycle was on the high side currently, but it would soon return to the low side. Good old Dick, he sure knows what he's talking about. Maybe by the time we get back, that letter from my 18 year old nephew, Jonny thats over there in Iraq will have been delivered by the Post Office.

[Nudge]

XER, you're right, fuck this doom shit. I need to go shopping just like MOU said. Let's see if we can swipe the plastic so many times that the numbers wear off in a single day. I need some new rags anyhow.

[thal]

You're almost there XER. A little more pressure and your tongue is likely go end up going clean through your cheek.

The San Juans make a great choice. Which island? I've disembarked on most, except Deer Island. It was among the finest of my vacations.

I'd also like to hear more about your camping adventures as an example of other living by other arrangement.

[Movenonup]

'Twas the night before Christmas, when throughout ClusterfuckNation
All the creatures were shopping, without hesitation;
They hung stockings by the chimney, without cares,
Hoping Chineese made crap, would soon would be theirs;
The children were nestled all snug in their beds,
With visions of toys, painted with leads;
And Hubby with his Glock, and I with my gift wrap,
Had just started discussing the nation’s trade gap
When out on the lawn there arose such a roar,
That I was sure someone had set off a bunch of C4;
Away to the window I flew like a flash,
Tore open the shutters and threw up the sash.
The moon on the breast of the new-fallen snow
Gave the lustre of mid-day to objects strewn below,
When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,
But a man in a purple joggingsuit and a very huge rear,
I moaned and I groaned and I felt like a sucker,
I knew in a moment it must be the ClusterFatFucker.
More vapid than paralegals, his endorsers they came,
And he whistled, and shouted, and called them by name;
"Now, Citi! Now, Morgan Stanley! Now, Merril Lynch!
Don’t fret about money, because finance is a cinch!
Re-mortgage the top of the porch, to the top of the wall!
Refinance, refinance, because you can have it all!"
I opened the window, in the blink of an eye,
And yelled, ”What about the excess housing supply?
He looked down at his gold monagramed comfort shoe
And said, “About what you speak, I haven’t a clue;
I think what you are saying is merely a spoof
You need to show me a mathmatical proof!”
I phoned Nudge to comeover, with her calculator
When she heard it was CFF, she said “See you later.”
My husband drew his Glock and loaded some rounds,
Looked me straight in the eye and said “Problems not purple clowns.”
He went throughout the house, from the front to the back,
His guns were a-blazing, I heard lots of things crack;
The ClusterFatFucker was now not so merry,
“What you’re doing in there is not nice, not very!”
His droll little mouth was drawn up like a bow,
And the beard of his chin, was as white as the snow;
The stump of a straw, he held tight in his teeth,
As he slurpped the diet coke, that he had poised beneath;
He had a broad smug face and a big round belly,
That shook when he laughed, like a bowlful of jelly.
He was chubby and plump, each roll made a shelf,
I stood transfixed when I saw him, in spite of myself;
A wink of his eye and a twist of his head,
I soon realized he was just over fed;
I turned to my husband, who I thought had gone postal
But this accounting of the facts would not be anicdotal.
While I had been talking with the big fat jerk,
My husband had gone about the real work.
He had gone through the house with rapid precision
And shot many rounds into each television.
“Reality shows, saop operas, misinformation,
advertising IS the news in ClusterfuckNation.
While oil is depleted during our macabre dance,
We watch and we shop in a clusterfuck trance.”
The CFF was winded as he entered his Denali,
As I screamed about earth and the wrath of Kali;
But I heard him exclaim, ere he drove out of sight,

"Merry Fucking Christmas, and to all a good-night."

[Dr.Doom]

dale, you are about as intelligent as two thick boards. I'm frankly more amazed that you have stayed here this long, considering the abuse you get, than the fact that you are an apparently successful Ameircun businessman. I suppose it's likely that you don't read too much or too well, otherwise you'd have caught on long ago that "Mr. Nudge" is in fact, a woman, like MOU and your wife, I guess. But maybe that's because Nudge has a far better command of math and physics and frankly, much more common sense than you'll ever have.

Merry Christmas to you and to all the other clueless business people out there. Enjoy it like it may be your last.

[thal]

Oops, Deer is harbor.

[thal]

Doom,

Why exactly did you add the second board to the equation? This must truly be due to the generosity of the season.

[Nudge]

MOU ... luv it!! :)

You owe me a new monitor & keyboard though!

[thal]

MOU, what can say? I'm chuckling.

[greenbeans]

JHK made a kick-ass post and today's comments are wonderful and humorous. I saw a gorgeous male bluebird yesterday. I had a good workout today. I feel good, real good. So good, I think I could even take on that punk with the spiked red hair and obscene sneakers. Where is he?

[Nudge]

D3PO, thanks, although I was considering letting Dale run with it for awhile. It fitted in rather nicely with the court jester role for which he was still inadvertently auditioning. But whether he gets the role or not is really LTL's call. :)

I like what Scott said earlier about the planned & managed devaluation of the UPL dollar, which will slowly take the excess waste out of the fossil fuel consumption in this country, thus freeing up more the the critical resource to be allocated elsewhere, for example to China or India. We are 4% of the planet's human population using up 25% or more of the world's oil. That's a rather long way to fall. Our own outrageous consumption of the stuff is one of the factors dragging down the value of our currency, ironically enough. The worst thing we could do for the economy is to continue with the consumption mania, keep driving big cars on long commutes, keep living in large houses, and keep consuming foods that took a lot of fossil fuel to grow / store / process / transport. Downsizing & downscaling is the only safe way out of the mess.

Unfortunately, few UPLers are getting with the program as yet. Perhaps when fossil fuels begin to move to their correct natural price levels, we'll see some movement in that direction?

[DerekK]

Crazy people don't give coherent reasons for their statements. Deluded people - with whom I speak daily - give incorrect, self-contradictory, incomplete, and/or weak reasons, then - when pressed - abruptly change the subject. The most deluded are often the most educated. Kunstler and Orlov are neither crazy nor deluded.

[XER]

MOU,

Clusterfatfucker sure is sucker pee uww, I can smell a certain luster, after he let out a pucker, and saw it was you.

Thank you, LOL LOL LOL.

[Gulland]

MOU,

My Christmas wish is that everyone with a Glock -would- shoot their TV with it. Thin THAT herd a bit.

Doom, Mele Kalikimaka!

Happy ChristHanuKwansaRamidanimas to you all!

Gulland