Campaign Blues

        While it's gratifying to watch Hillary Clinton melt back into her senate seat -- in the process foiling the ascent of Emperor Bill the 1st -- one can't help but feel that that the contest for president is taking place in a different "world-line" (shall we say) than the melt-down of the US financial sector, and with it, the US economy.

        Whoever wins on November 5 will wake up to preside over a different America than the schematic one he was debating about during the primaries and the election. The long campaign will beat a path straight into the long emergency. The new president will inherit a wrecked banking system, an economy in freefall, a wobbling world oil market, and an American public extremely ticked off by its startling, sudden impoverishment. (This is apart from whatever melodramas spool out on the geopolitical scene.)
     The president-elect will quickly realize that the number one problem is not that Americans can't afford health care -- it's that they can't afford anything, because their income is evaporating in terms of both lost jobs and a dollar that is racing toward worthlessness. They'll be hard put to pay for food and gasoline, nevermind Grandma's emphysema treatments. They will be walking away from home ownership -- or yanked kicking and screaming by default-and-repo -- and any government scheme devised to abridge their mortgage contracts will only undermine basic contract law that has made mortgage lending a credible thing in the first place. And that too, of course, would redound straight to a real estate sector already in price free-fall, with no one willing or able to think about buying a house.
     As Obama and McCain go at it through the next eight months, they will likely focus on our situation in Iraq. (Calling it a "war" now is imprecise.) As merely one commentator among thousands, I'm not satisfied that either one of the contenders has defined his position on this coherently. Obama is disposed to get the US military out of there as quickly as possible. He's right that the sheer awful cost of the adventure is one big factor in wrecking US finances while it erodes our standing in the world. But with our Iraq garrison shut down, he'd better be prepared for a further breakdown in Middle East stability and the oil markets that depend on it -- meaning, the basis of American life for four generations, dependable oil imports, will sharply end. That would accelerate the disorderly abandonment of our massive misinvestment in suburban living, and also ramp up the anger and resentment of the public grieving over its lost entitlements.
     McCain's contrasting hundred-year plan does not take into account the severe impoverishment and exhaustion of the military itself, not to mention the overall purpose of the adventure -- to keep suburban life and all its accessories running in the homeland -- which is an exercise in futility under any terms. McCain would have to confront the terrible paradoxes of the war, namely that thousands of legs have been blown off for the sake of WalMart, which company will be hemorrhaging customers anyway, as incomes wilt, at the same time that WalMart's own operating system -- the "warehouse on wheels" -- surrenders to the reality of five or six dollar-a-gallon diesel fuel. In any case, the implosion of the US economy during the next eight months will overshadow whatever we decide to do in Iraq, and that cratering will be laid directly at the feet of the Republican party. If the party survives that, which I doubt, it would a long time before anybody trusted it again.
     Whoever wakes up as the next president on November 5 will have to preside over the comprehensive reorganization of American life. The big question is whether he can persuade the public to let go of its sunk costs, and all the sheer stuff that represents, and move ahead in a unified way that doesn't end up tearing the nation apart. The danger is that the public will want to mount a kind of last stand effort to defend a way of life that has no future under any circumstances, and they will ask the president to lead that last stand.
      To avoid that deadly outcome, the new president will have to be equipped with a realistic vision of what this society can actually do to survive the discontinuities that circumstances present. This will require him to confront the prevailing delusion that the US can become "energy independent" in the sense that we can run WalMart on something other than oil from foreign lands. The new president would have to carefully restate American expectations and goals -- for instance, not to keep all the cars running at all costs, but to get us living in places where driving is not mandatory. I'm concerned that the American people will hate the new president if he tells them the truth: that an old way of life is over and a new one has to begin now. We're about to find out how much "change" the public can really stand.
      

 

Comments

[Anonymous Blowhard]

Btw, regarding the Amish, since I see them mentioned here fairly often:

Don't take this as too much of a dis on them, but I - well, my grandparents whom I visited often - lived near them, close to the Ohio/Pennsylvania (in the former). Although they will weather the coming storm better than most, they are still rather more reliant on the modern world than they might wish to admit to.

For example, my uncle was a regular chauffeur for them with his van, taking any & all members of their community - even some elders - on trips of varying length and destinations. They were hardly making weekly Wal-Mart stops, but it had become so regular he had signups for who was going where and often had to turn people away. By no means was he the only one doing this, and they made a good living just driving the Amish around.

It seemed they were fine with things like cars & getting the benefits of such, they just weren't keen on having one themselves. I suppose I should take some solace in that they really packed that van.

I suspect they'll adapt without too much difficulty, but really... to call them that removed from the car culture is incorrect.

[scott]

"It was interesting to see the different cultural attitudes to the crisis on display. In Japan, the CEO of a major bank would have apologized to his employees and his country, and would have refused his pension and bonus so that those who suffered as a result of corporate failures could share the money. He would have resigned. In America, the only questions are whether a board will force a CEO to leave and, if so, how big his severance package will be. When I asked one CEO whether there was any discussion of returning their bonuses, the response was not just no, but an aggressive defense of the bonus system."

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stiglitz96/English

[Uncle Remus]

"the greed, the stupidity and selfish attitudes of millions of Americans"

I completely disagree with all this finger pointing. Bud4's comments are like those of the religious zealot in Dave's Ingmar Bergman (The Seventh Seal) link. The simple fact of the matter is there are too many consumers on a finite planet with limited resources. Despite and because of America's inrapture of the present way of conducting our living in modern times, we have the farthest to fall. It's that distance from the top of the cliff that will shock us into disbelief and inaction. If you want to live, leave now, it's not too late to catch a plane to Papua New Guinea, and join a mountain tribe with a lot less distance to fall."

D3PO, how is that phrase finger-pointing? In what way it is a misrepresentation of the current situation?

It sounds a little like denial...and frustration.

[bud4wiser]

Dr D says: “Bud4's comments are like those of the religious zealot in Dave's Ingmar Bergman (The Seventh Seal) link. The simple fact of the matter is there are too many consumers on a finite planet with limited resources.”

Dr D. my point is that even among whatever tribe you want use as a metaphor for “sustainable” lifestyle – there are the “haves and the have mores” screwing over the sicker, hungrier, less ambitious tribesmen. Your comment serves the point of my post, although left handedly.

You can jump out a window or use the stairs; American’s prefer the window I guess.

Thanks anyway.

[Mark]

The next president will be a single term and out. Regardless of who they might be. Why? JHK said it: "you can't stand the truth!" When Americans fully understand the shitstorm that's on us or coming at us, they will blame the messenger. If he/she has the balls to tell it like it is. Ala, Jimmy Carter.

[scott]

"In a country teeming with resources the world covets, President Bush sought Wednesday to soothe African fears about American interests on the continent. He said the U.S. isn't aiming to make Africa into a base for greater military power or a proxy battleground with China."

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8UU8LK00&show_article=1

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080303191316.7hk13cmj&show_article=1

[Mr. Purple]

JHK wrote:
" We're about to find out how much "change" the public can really stand. "

Change seems most palatable to the public when that change is happening to someone else. Me, I'm reminded of another quote:

"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro."
-Hunter S. Thompson

Weird going lies ahead.

[Gary49er]

In the '60's, people took acid to make the world weird. Now the world is weird and people take Prozac to make it normal.
(stealing a signature line from PO.com)

[Human5105067801]

Mark said “The next president will be a single term and out.”

Of course it will be necessary to topple the captain of a listing ship to satisfy the fury of the crew/passengers. Scapegoats have got to be as old as civilization; perhaps as old as life.

One thing though; have you ever glanced at the idiotic conincidences between Lincoln and Kennedy; the circumstances and dates of their deaths, their birth dates, their secretary names, and on and on.

No statistical analysis explains all the moronic conicidences between them and their demises; this isn't the kinda coincidence where a few people in the same class have the same birthday. A big wink is happening here for those who wanna see. Leads one to some pretty sober conclusions about the nature of elections and presidents in your country (perhaps mine as well?) for a LONG time.

Human5105067801

[Dr.Doom]

Sorry, I was late to jump in a car and sit in morning traffic for 45 minutes on the way to work, so I had to make that post brief.

Bud4, I'm thinking Americans have been set up to take the window. But, it's not anyone's fault in particular. There have been a lot of situation enablers, though, that have helped speed up the process, say, Bush's admin. two terms and their policies, the Wall Street BigFund Boyz that JHK likes to ridicule, the Fed, oil companies, auto companies, finance companies, insurance companies, bought politicians, etc., etc.

The religious zealot proclaims "you're all gonna die, maybe tonight!" So? OK, we know we're all gonna die, sometime.

Could it have been done differently so we could have taken the stairs? I'm rather shocked to say I'm not sure. If you haven't done so already, go back to last week's thread and read what James Lovelock had to say on this matter. He is a very wise man, and he's saying it is way past too late to save much now. Shocking. He says enjoy it while it lasts, maybe we'll get another 20 years before the shit really hits (not bloody likely, IMHO). Point is, it's way too late to be pointing at some folks as too greedy, we've all been too greedy, and thick-headed, for too long now.

Sorry to pick on you Bud, but I know you can take it. I still love you, man.

D3PO

[Human5105067801]

Tangurena,

Jared Diamond (Collaspe author) writes a book about the inherent collapse behaviour of large human groupings, then the SOB goes on a 'all round the world sightseeing trip' sponsored by National Geographic to 'view the world from the air'.

Does Diamond give a fuck about selling anything but books? Are most of the bastards predicting collapse just self promoting monkeys?

It makes one think that it's really all personal initiative, because the authors, professors, and activists are all ego masterbating and just wanna be the 'honoured messenger'.

What do you figure is the best thing to do in face of the facts Diamond (or sometimes even Kunty) at least provided?

Human5105067801

[Human5105067801]

Anonymous Blowhard said: “regarding the Amish, since I see them mentioned here fairly often”

You are dead on about the Amish (I live near a Amish community adjacent Aylmer, Ontario); they are really like children lving within the parent (God's) rules. “God says you can't have a car, but not that you couldn't ride in one.” “God says that you can't have electricty but gas motors are ok.”

Don't get me wrong, those children are easier to get along with them most people and their craftsmanship is high quality, but their dogmatic jesus-lovin pacifism and near complete ignornace of the predatory nature of the rest of humanity is hardly going to provide well for them. I know of more than little advantage taking of these folks by 'the bigger world' already.

Also interested in your dandelion comment. What kind of critters are eating them in your area? Sounds like a classic overlooked solution; appreciate the heads up.

Dandelions are dictated as goodam noxious weed where I live. I have had the mind more than once to bodily threaten a weed inspector, but then I reasoned the real bodily threats (aka the cops) come and see me and have a little of their fun. So I simply tried to make him die with my eyes. Dosen't work, you know?

Who says humans are intelligent?

Human5105067801

[LaughingAsRomeWasBurningDown]

Smile and grin at the change all around
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I'll get on my knees and pray

[Human5105067801]

Dr. Doom,

I did type a detailed reply to you earlier, in a respectful and thoughful manner.

But to hell with that!

You're the classic oversocialized liberal professer. You listed me all your over wordy specializations with the implicit understanding that you deserved respect for having them. Then, offhandedly, made clear these large-and-in-charge subjects you know so well do nothing for you survival wise.

Then, as icing, you actually had the wretched audacity to say that you 'took a vow of poverty' when you became an academic while living on a tropical island.

You are in fact the most secure echelon of society aside from the highly monied folks. You pretentious airheads and your tenure. No wonder you tell others to 'go join mountian tribes', you are rather comfortable where you are.

Locklock says we're fucked? Ok then Prof! Let's go get drunk and find some uppers!

Enjoy your ill gotten gains!

Human5105067801

[Human5105067801]

Abrey said: “Another great & thoughtful post this week. Off-topic question: Would you consider an anthology of your best CFN columns for your next book?”

Jumpin Jesus the snivelling pacifist! Kunty is all over that! Anything that involves the magic words 'book sell you money make' is something Kunster gets drooly over.

You know, child needing bib drooly.

Human5105067801

[Dr.Doom]

"It sounds a little like denial...and frustration."--Uncle Remus

Uncle, I'm not denying, but you are spot on with the frustration part. I'm not mad or disappointed with anyone in particular, just the entire species. Here's where I put an arm around David Mathews.

[Lost Horizon]

Human5105067801, you are the poster child of how the average citizen is going to react when they are forced to absorb the Big News about Peak Oil, Peak Climate and Peak Finance.

Thanks for the tantrum. It was like watching a monkey throw poop on a blackboard.

The judges:

9.1 - 8.9 - 9.4 - 9.3 - 9.7

You almost have the Gold.

Something for your bumper:

"Deal with Reality or Reality will deal with You."

[upnatpishtim]

it seems that readers of ths blog who havent yet become blacksmiths and subsistanc farmers are going to be in for rough times.
the big boyz are right now jacking up food stuffs futures for sale to nations with huge FOREX reserves.
the big boyz were willing to dismantle uh-merikan industry and manufacturing, now they will do the same thing for our bread basket.
but they have everything sewn up.
interment camps ready to be filled and the ablility to get canadian
military to put down any insurections.
we have all eaten to many cheeze doodles and watched too many nascar races.
the time has come to stop poking holes in the air with our index fingers (or flipping the bird)and do something. that will require more than philosophical banter on website blogs. heh-heh! i think it will mean spinning flax into thread and making beeswax candles.
oh, and pouring your own bullets.
luckily, as with peak everything, gunpowder ill be in short supply.
the mass killings of citizen by citizen will end quickly.
last man standing , anyone?

[Dr.Doom]

I see Human#### smells blood in the waters...

Humm, I don't expect you or anyone else to respect the knowledge I have in those specialized areas I listed. It's just a fact that those are areas that others, my peers, would agree that I have expertise. Would that knowledge help me to survive in drastically-altered circumstances? Depends. I can probably make some effective explosives or chemical/radiological weapons, and, if I had the materials, could probably get a reactor going or a crude nuclear fission explosive device. Not gonna happen, though, I'm a pacifist.

The academic "vow of poverty" part was in reference to grad school colleagues that went into the oil&gas industry and took early retirements, some back here in Hawaii. I'm still working. Good thing I like my job.

Nothing is secure. You obviously haven't heard of Post-tenure Review. I've had three so far, and passed.

You remind me of PeakLife, but you obviously don't live here in the islands. Bye for now.

[LaughingAsRomeWasBurningDown]

I really thought this was going to have something to do with foreclosures, but I guess not:

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/03/03/house-fires-with-a-message-in-the-northwest/?hp

It happened again today north of Seattle, where three of six model homes on a so-called Street of Dreams burned to the ground and a fourth was damaged. Fire officials said the blazes were deliberately set, and that a sign was found at the scene claiming responsibility and signed E.L.F., which stands for a shadowy group or movement called the Earth Liberation Front.

[SolubleFish]

Laser eyes, have you tried pulling those annoying weeds out with your hands. It beats hurling obscenities and then doing nothing. I hear erecting a force field sometimes works. Weeds are super dumb though. They'll grow on anything and eat the heart of whatever it is.

[SolubleFish]

do vampires always blame their hosts when they wiggle or scream?

housing slump dents ford sales
http://www.marketwatch.com/tvradio/player.asp?guid=%7BC447605D-887A-4798-8842-7EAFF5DDB964%7D

[Gary49er]

Human::
*Are most of the bastards predicting collapse just self promoting monkeys?*
Certainly not all, but I suspect most, as you say. I mean after all Al Gore is now up in some international corporation selling carbon credits.
A person needs his own filter thru which to view the propaganda.........again, IMO

[alyosha]

It's too simple to say that the Republican party will be destroyed. They own/run the media, and have become skilled at creating boogeymen and simplistic fables for those who wish to believe. They have become increasingly skilled at using fear to control the masses.

The Democrats will inherit a broken country, and I fear will increasingly be seen as impotent to change anything of significance. The public will see both political parties as irrelevant in an increasingly desperate world.

As the dollar becomes worth less, and as energy and water become scarce, and as the true situation our country finds itself in becomes clearer even to the masses, expect the country to further polarize into those who applaud using our military muscle to take whatever we need to keep things comfortable here, versus those who realize this is doomed.

Expect the country to finally break up into regions, as the center, with its unrealistic promises, with its complete abandonment of government by We The People, with its total corruption no longer able to be hidden, finally loses all believability in the eyes of the majority. Expect people to refuse to pay ever higher taxes to support this reeking stench.

Expect any jobs or sustenance to be doled out to the hungry masses by the corporations who are the new feudal masters, who are and always have been the mainstay of the Republican Party.

[LaughingAsRomeWasBurningDown]

Obama, McCain. Still just good cop/bad cop to me. As if it really mattered. Somebody else said it best a little earlier, our greed is the clusterfuck. Maybe some RATM will help:

Transmission third world war third round
A decade of the weapon of sound above ground
Ain't no shelter if you're looking for shade
I lick shots at the brutal charade
As the polls close like a casket
On truth devoured
A silent play on the shadow of power
A spectacle monopolized
The camera's eye on choice disguised
Was it cast for the mass who burn and toil?
Or for the vultures who thirst for blood and oil?
A spectacle monopolized
They hold the reins and stole your eyes
The Pentagon's bullets and bombs
Who stuff the banks
Who staff the party ranks
More for Gore or the son of a drug lord
None of the above
Fuck it cut the cord