Campaign Blues

        While it's gratifying to watch Hillary Clinton melt back into her senate seat -- in the process foiling the ascent of Emperor Bill the 1st -- one can't help but feel that that the contest for president is taking place in a different "world-line" (shall we say) than the melt-down of the US financial sector, and with it, the US economy.

        Whoever wins on November 5 will wake up to preside over a different America than the schematic one he was debating about during the primaries and the election. The long campaign will beat a path straight into the long emergency. The new president will inherit a wrecked banking system, an economy in freefall, a wobbling world oil market, and an American public extremely ticked off by its startling, sudden impoverishment. (This is apart from whatever melodramas spool out on the geopolitical scene.)
     The president-elect will quickly realize that the number one problem is not that Americans can't afford health care -- it's that they can't afford anything, because their income is evaporating in terms of both lost jobs and a dollar that is racing toward worthlessness. They'll be hard put to pay for food and gasoline, nevermind Grandma's emphysema treatments. They will be walking away from home ownership -- or yanked kicking and screaming by default-and-repo -- and any government scheme devised to abridge their mortgage contracts will only undermine basic contract law that has made mortgage lending a credible thing in the first place. And that too, of course, would redound straight to a real estate sector already in price free-fall, with no one willing or able to think about buying a house.
     As Obama and McCain go at it through the next eight months, they will likely focus on our situation in Iraq. (Calling it a "war" now is imprecise.) As merely one commentator among thousands, I'm not satisfied that either one of the contenders has defined his position on this coherently. Obama is disposed to get the US military out of there as quickly as possible. He's right that the sheer awful cost of the adventure is one big factor in wrecking US finances while it erodes our standing in the world. But with our Iraq garrison shut down, he'd better be prepared for a further breakdown in Middle East stability and the oil markets that depend on it -- meaning, the basis of American life for four generations, dependable oil imports, will sharply end. That would accelerate the disorderly abandonment of our massive misinvestment in suburban living, and also ramp up the anger and resentment of the public grieving over its lost entitlements.
     McCain's contrasting hundred-year plan does not take into account the severe impoverishment and exhaustion of the military itself, not to mention the overall purpose of the adventure -- to keep suburban life and all its accessories running in the homeland -- which is an exercise in futility under any terms. McCain would have to confront the terrible paradoxes of the war, namely that thousands of legs have been blown off for the sake of WalMart, which company will be hemorrhaging customers anyway, as incomes wilt, at the same time that WalMart's own operating system -- the "warehouse on wheels" -- surrenders to the reality of five or six dollar-a-gallon diesel fuel. In any case, the implosion of the US economy during the next eight months will overshadow whatever we decide to do in Iraq, and that cratering will be laid directly at the feet of the Republican party. If the party survives that, which I doubt, it would a long time before anybody trusted it again.
     Whoever wakes up as the next president on November 5 will have to preside over the comprehensive reorganization of American life. The big question is whether he can persuade the public to let go of its sunk costs, and all the sheer stuff that represents, and move ahead in a unified way that doesn't end up tearing the nation apart. The danger is that the public will want to mount a kind of last stand effort to defend a way of life that has no future under any circumstances, and they will ask the president to lead that last stand.
      To avoid that deadly outcome, the new president will have to be equipped with a realistic vision of what this society can actually do to survive the discontinuities that circumstances present. This will require him to confront the prevailing delusion that the US can become "energy independent" in the sense that we can run WalMart on something other than oil from foreign lands. The new president would have to carefully restate American expectations and goals -- for instance, not to keep all the cars running at all costs, but to get us living in places where driving is not mandatory. I'm concerned that the American people will hate the new president if he tells them the truth: that an old way of life is over and a new one has to begin now. We're about to find out how much "change" the public can really stand.
      

 

Comments

[Anonymous Blowhard]

WRT dandelions:

Although I agree with the comment that they are near indestructible where I grew up, here (mid-California) doesn't seem quite as optimal. They do grow way quickly, but not in such an overpowering fashion. I guess it's more like we let them "have" the edges and they feed the critters - which are primarily rabbits, squirrels, the rare deer and maybe a few other random small types. Those and small physical blocks keep most things away, or at least sufficiently.

[Anonymous Blowhard]

I find myself of the mind that yes, we are too little/late to make required changes (and would be tickled mauve to find out that I'm wrong). I'm still not ready to write off the average person as at least not mildly complicit - and in many cases, moreso. I guess I'm not really disagreeing with Doom; he later clarifies and is consistent with a previous post about how we're all responsible and that who is for what is *very* hard to determine - if that's even possible.

But, how much we're responsible for still is a question, and I would argue that there are those that are worse than others. By extension, I'd lay aim at at least a few of my relatives to start. How much they were/are the victim is difficult to say from years of being called "shrill", "gloomy" or whatever. I still cannot shake the feeling(word?) that, much like government, we'll get the world we deserve.

[UncleYarra]

Lucky LARB,
I see you're getting plenty of advice today about gardening.
My two cents?
Next time you go past the local coffee shop, ask for the used grounds - lots of carbon.
Don't use so much that when you water it turns to coffee, but it'd make a great buffer mixed with the ashes before application.
FWIW I also use charcoal ground up with mulch made from the bark that comes off our firewood when it's dry enough to split.
A cheap pH meter ( I use a bettry-less one, retails for ~$6) will tell you how much dolomite to add if the ash makes the pH go too low after ash application.

[UncleYarra]

"Battery-less"

[DAL357]

I just stumbled across this blog last night. From what I've read so far, I find myself really enjoying your take on things. I don't know where you stand politically--I'm much more comfortable in the libertarian (notice the small "l")camp than anywhere else--but, please, keep up the good work!
http://dal357.blogspot.com/

[Nicholas Paredes]

Human,

Dandelions are not bad. My Italian neighbor would make a salad, with garlic and olive oil from mine, since I didn’t spew chemicals on the lawn. Bitter, but not bad. There are whole groups of bitter vegetation that will be sprouting from the ground in mere moments. Between those, and the giant mushrooms in the woods near Chicago, entire families could be fed!

My neighbor probably would not notice that the power went out since she makes just about everything including soap. And, the wine is pretty good…

It might be a good time to learn to can!

[bigmike7]

Charcoal is even better than ashes for soil. Do a google search on "terra preta" (dark earth), and you'll find that a lot of new research has been done showing that the addition of charcoal to poor tropical soils is what allowed the mythical region of El Dorado to flourish before the European diseases set in. In actuality, the city was not a myth at all. Tropical soils, due to constant leaching from heavy rains, have almost zero nutrients, but there exists a region the size of France in the Amazon which to this day has some of the best soil around. Charcoal allowed the soil to retain nutrients added from manure and refuse.

Of course, most of us have leftover ashes and not leftover charcoal. But, if you have a log that only partially burned in the fireplace, chop it up and put that in the soil. If you live in Hawaii or other rainy area, you might consider purchasing or making charcoal to help build up a raised bed garden.

[greenbeans]

Not to be a nit-picker UY, but wood ash pH is usually alkaline, so it would raise pH levels in soil where it was applied normally.

http://www.elmhurst.edu/~chm/vchembook/184ph.html

"wood ash has a liming effect of between 8 and 90% of the total neutralizing power of lime and can increase plant growth up to 45% over traditional limestone."

http://hubcap.clemson.edu/~blpprt/bestwoodash.html

[Nudge]

"In a country teeming with resources the world covets, President Bush sought Wednesday to soothe African fears about American interests on the continent. He said the U.S. isn't aiming to make Africa into a base for greater military power or a proxy battleground with China."

I'm sure that GWB didn't intend to do just that with Iraq either .. it “just happened”.

Dr. Doom, your forbearance is an amazing thing to behold. :) The PeakLifers are legion, however, and they're all going to throw tantrums when their XBoxen get repo'd, when the power gets shut off, and when the food pantry stops dropping off bales of ramen noodles on every other block. The sad truth is that these people were barely sentient to begin with, and not much evolved beyond the petri dish bacteria we often mock here for overbreeding beyond the carrying capacity of their environment.

Sorry about the Amish thing. I hear from the Ohio relatives that they're generally not saints when it comes to relying on other people's high-tech toys. I've even seen some of them working hourly jobs at Wal*Mart, of all places ~ somewhere in Indiana.

Despite that, I think most of them know something about farming, and a group of them working together can even build houses from local materials, using only hand tools, albeit with a lot of work going into the project. Most of us modern Duhmericans are pretty lame in comparison.

I don't see where their religion has anything to do with the success or failure of their mode of living. It certainly shouldn't have any bearing on the ability of people in community XYZ to help each other, though, since all of our ancestors lived basically the same way 120+ years ago as the Amish do now. They almost certainly cooperated in putting up houses & barns, taking care of each other when houses got burned down, donating goods and livestock and seed to new families starting out on their own, etc.

Who was it who implied that only those who have already successfully transitioned to low-tech occupations will survive the coming mess? Upnatpishtim? (You need an easier handle!) :) No, sorry, you're way off base with that one. Undoubtedly many of the people who have already made adaptations successful to a not-yet-here emergent future may get taken over or swamped out by others who didn't prepare so well, and, clearly, many people who didn't do any preparation at all may survive through luck or the ability to simply kill others for the resources they possess. (You see a lot of that in gangland already.)

We have in fact already seen the cultural results of what happens when you send a lot of poorly-prepared educated people out to the countryside to try living off the land. Remember the 60s and 70s, anyone? Lots of hippies headed to the countryside, and nearly all of them came back within a few years.

[UncleYarra]

BigMike,
Yep, that's exactly what I'm trying to do, a low-quality terra-preta (wish I knew someone who had an aquarium shop so I could get old activated carbon for free).
Greenbeans,
Fnose what was happening at my place then. Mind you, the ash (& charcoal) was outside for quite a while, other things were growing in it - maybe something else made it acidic??
P.S. before you bag my $6 pH meter, I know it can tell between acid and alkaline - why with a simple 20 cent upgrade it becomes an interstellar spacecraft.

[greenbeans]

"was outside for quite a while"

UY, acid rain would be my guess for the change in pH.

[greenbeans]

Yes, let's not forget about acid rain being one of evil effects of burning fossil fuels. Kind of gets ignored somewhat with all the worry about climate change.

[Dr.Doom]

“It’s all in the long-term trends. Weather isn’t going to go away because of climate change. There is this desire to explain everything that we see in terms of something you think you understand, whether that’s the next ice age coming or global warming.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/02/science/02cold.html?th&emc=th

Damn. I was secretly hoping for some global cooling spilling over into the summer.

[UncleYarra]

GB,
I don't think acid rain is a problem in our region. What about old orange peels? Reckon that'd be acidic like the flesh? I used to throw a heap there before I started putting the fireplace tailings on top.
FYI
We don't have garbage collection where I live, that's why I decided to use all that stuff on the garden, I thought it'd be crap, but once things started to grow in it I sifted out the big bits and put it in Zone A.
pH was less than 4 before dolomite application.

[Dr.Doom]

We used to dump our BBQ ash and charcoal bits in the trash. No more, it goes all over the yard and I work it into the topsoil. We have a charcoal fuel-cell expert here, Prof. Antal of UH, who also promotes charcoal as good medium for plant growth.

[UncleYarra]

Who says carbon capture doesn't work, eh, Doom??

[greenbeans]

"As Australia is sparsely populated, its cities are far apart and it has no neighbors, the readings are not very high. In areas where there are smelters and power stations however, the problem of acid rain is far greater.

The major effects are on forests and rivers and lakes, where the acid rain causes the soil or water to be so acidified that trees won't grow or in fact they can even die completely and rivers and lakes they can become so acidic that they won't support any sort of aquatic life."

http://www.csiro.au/promos/ozadvances/Series14Acidrain.htm

[Dr.Doom]

Here's one on soil amendments and water retention that I learned from the Anasazi: pumice. Seems the Anasazi put pebble-sized pumice in the soil where they grew their maze, probably to help in water retention in dry, drought-prone climates. Archeologists use the pumice to trace where they grew their crops. I have some papers, if interested.

[UncleYarra]

GB,
Friend in the RAAF lives near base, but is actually closer to an aluminium smelter. He loves making wine and brewing, but can't grow anything on his 4 acre property, or even use rain water tanks.
Glad I live 450km away.
Doom,
I wonder if pumice has the same effect as expanded clay in aquaponics, i.e. more surface area for bacteria to grow.
(btw, my user name now has e-mail)

[bigmike7]

Doom, Yarra,

I'm trying to make terra preta, too. Mostly, I think I have to. On the rainy side of the Big Island, the soil is pretty poor. People dump loads of fertilizers and the plants suck it all up and still look sickly sometimes.
You probably knew this already, but another component of the terra preta in the Amazon is crushed clay pottery. Seems similar to pumice, huh? Probably had a different purpose than water retention; maybe bacteria medium as yarra suggests. I can get pumice or "cinders" fairly cheap here in Hawaii-- probably cheaper than finding old pottery.

[Uncle Remus]

D3PO,

Enablers have been around since the dawn of man. So has the concept of no.

[bud4wiser]

Geez F Christ - now some of you have a hard time keepin' the time lines for peak Oil and Global Climate change straight. Dr. D, confused yes, correct no.

In case anyone out there is listening, the end is near, but there's time left to go out with some dignity.

[Johnny Rico]

"the end is near"

C'mon, man. By "near" you mean like whenever it happens, right. Like it could be 3 years or 300. Far out, brother.

You're to Doomsday what John McCain is to Iraq. That might be the right attitude...who knows, right?

[Johnny Rico]

I know my buddy Brandon has a problem with him, but I've always kinda liked Derrick Jensen since I read 'Resistance.' Totally subversive.

I always check out some of the typepad (or as Nudge calls it typopad) 'Recently Updated Blogs' on the left. I saw this one 'DatingGod' and just clicked on it, I don't know why. But the first post was about how this chick just finished TLE, so I scrolled a bit more and found this video of Jensen.

I thought there was some cool stuff in it.

http://datinggod.typepad.com/datinggod/2008/02/derrick-jense-2.html

Fire Away.

[Johnny Rico]

And Doom, I didn't delete your posts, I think I have that issue worked out...fucktard :)

I see Human321Dickhead is back.