Upscale

      My new novel of the post-oil future, World Made By Hand, is available at all booksellers.

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     Things continue to slip, slide, and shift strangely Out There.
     Last Wednesday, a bunch of peeved mortgagees protesting government favoritism in the Bear Stearns case entered the lobby of the company's (soon-to-be-former) headquarters building in midtown Manhattan. While it might not seem like much, I view the symbolic "penetration" of this corporate stronghold as the very first sign of a much broader citizen revolt against the extraordinary protections being shown to crapped-out investment banker boyz -- at the expense of millions of equally crapped-out poor shlubs facing the default and re-po of their McDwelling places.

     Occupying an office building lobby peacefully in broad daylight is one thing. Wait until summer gets underway and The New York Post gossip page resumes its coverage of hijinks in the Hamptons. The executives of Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan / Chase, and other dealers in fraudulent securities, plus the art world and show biz glitteratti who party together out there, might all find themselves the object of considerable grievance and resentment as the beaching season ramps up, and the limos roll around the charity lobster roasts, and the guests stray down the lawns, chardonays in hand, to plot divorce from their over-leveraged husbands.... God knows what seekers-of-vengence will be creepy-crawling the privet plantings along Gin Lane in the crepuscular gloom, searching for trophy wives to garrote.

     Perhaps a bankrupt landscaping contractor from Lake Ronkonkoma, recently stiffed by a hedge fund manager over the installation of a half acre of pachysandra, will be arrested on the Wantagh Highway with blood on his sleeves and a high-C piano wire in his pocket. The non-Hampton precincts of Long Island, which make up more than 90 percent of the fish-shaped appendage to New York State, will be full of angry re-po victims, and the Hamptons lie at the very dead-end tail of the geographical fish. Will the banker boyz attempt to flee by yacht? And where might they escape to? Newport, Rhode Island? Labrador. . . ?

      I maintain, of course, that the media (and the public itself) has no idea how quickly things might get weird in this country -- or how weird they might get.

      Now bear with me while I shift gears. The past five days I went to a pretty major environmental conference put on by the Aspen Institute in their odd little mountain town -- and nobody needs to tell me how un-correct it was that I flew all the way out to Denver and then drove a rent-a-car the size of a humpback whale deep into the heart of the Rocky Mountains to attend this thing. (I assure you, I wasn't paid to go.) The Institute grounds -- which looked like the set of a 1950s Raymond Massey movie about the future -- were thick with many eminentissimos of Climate Change (minus Al Gore) and activists in "green" politics, more generally. The latest frightful measurements of retreating glaciers, vanishing species, and creeping deserts were proffered and everybody was suitably impressed by the acceleration of scary conditions facing the human race.

        Being such a formal conference, though, with the putative mission to advance understanding and set agendas-for-action, a great effort was made through the medium of panel discussions to set forth various "initiatives" to deal with all the scariness, especially by enlisting the agencies of the US Government -- and most especially with the prospect of a new administration sweeping out the detritus of Bush-dom next January.

      I confess I found most of these well-intentioned proposals utterly implausible, along with their trains of hopes, wishes, and fantasies. The main conceit is that we can keep all the normal operations of the American Dream humming by some "non-carbon" related energy source -- in other words, run WalMart without oil, methane gas, or coal -- and that all the forces of government and capital can be marshaled to make that happen. The secondary conceit is that they would accomplish these things in an orderly process, harnessing "new technology," as though it were a higher sort of school science fair.

      My own opinion is that these birds have the scale issue wrong. The exigencies of the Long Emergency imply that virtually everything organized at the grand scale will tend to wobble and fail as the problems of energy scarcity and climate change converge. Institutions from the federal government to WalMart to the University of Arizona will face increasing impotence, incompetence, and bankruptcy. Vesting our hopes in propping up activities run at that scale is bound to be disappointing, to say the least, and the precursor to social upheaval to go a bit further. There's probably a lot we can do at the finer and more modest scale, but that is not the scale that conferences like this focus on-- in particular because so many of the participants are current or former high-up government wonks themselves. Anyway, the scale of global distress tends, by plain inference, to invoke the wish for global "solutions," however detached from reality they may be.

      At the center of all this conferencing was the movement's lead eco-guru, Amory Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), located just up Highway 82 from Aspen. Lovins's long-running emblematic project with that outfit is something they call the "hyper-car," a car that gets such supernaturally great mileage that it will save the human race's threatened Happy Motoring program from extinction. The hyper-car program, which RMI still trumpets to this day, has, of course, the unintended consequence of promoting future car dependency -- which is about the last thing that America needs -- but that hasn't prevented RMI from pushing it. Beyond that, Lovins's RMI program-for-America resembles an actuarial exercise in "carbon credits" and other statistics-based fantasies aimed at inducing theoretically rational behavior among the WalMart executives (and "greening" up WalMart has been another of RMI's consulting projects -- I'm not kidding).

        Here lies my third dissent from what I heard at the conference: since America is bankrupting itself so comprehensively at every level, the wished-for "funding" for the green rescue program will not be there in any case.  Capital itself, as represented by Wall Street, is flying to pieces this year as its stock-in-trade of paper certificates loses legitimacy in the face of the overwhelming fact that the society behind that paper will be decreasingly capable of producing surplus wealth -- which is what capital is. The unwind of "positions" now underway among the big bankz is the process of previously anticipated capital accumulation vanishing down a black hole. It will be gone forever.

      This is the year we find that out. Bear Stearns was not the only sick puppy in the kennel. When another one wobbles and crashes, will the Federal Reserve step in again and accept its worthless CDO paper as collateral on another $30 billion loan, and another, and another, and so on? And will the individual mortgage default homeowner shlubs just watch all this go down on CNBC without any action beyond "penetrating" the lobby of a Manhattan skyscraper? I don't think so. What goes down in the Hamptons will go down in Aspen, too.

Comments

[InTouchWithInnerOptimist]

So sorry to throw Pollyanna Curds your whey--- but I spent years bemoaning the fate of our endless greed and stupidity, making myself miserable whilst feeling superior. And then I discovered that I didn't need to view the coming meltdown in such a drab light.

First comes destruction, yes, then come anarchy, revolution, the bloody mess that all the 'stupid' people created by sticking 'their' heads up their derrieres. Or perhaps if we start to notice all the amazing people, little people without education leading good lives and creating hope in their communities we could stop posturing and feel a little hope? Because maybe, just maybe, Americans aren't soooooo stupid and cult-minded after all. Perhaps there is a core of greatness here still.

I keep running into amazing people in this small Colorado town I moved to 7 months ago. I ignore the ones who bug me, I ignore the big trucks and the hicks with dicks. Thus my life is incomparably better as what I focus my attention on is positive. It's easy to stand on a plastic pedestal and sound superior, I did it for years. It's much harder to notice all the wonderful folks around you who are making a difference in small ways.

I step down off my recycled Soap Box now, bow, and waddle off into an ordinary day full of lovely ordinary people to do ordinary things.

[Holmes, I presume]

A really great post. Excellent commentary and rants all around. Lying low and enjoying the show...

[mlytle]

I think thoughtful people should continue to monitor what happens as a result of these looming strikes by truckers and ultimately others, stung by the thoughtless economic mismanagement of this countries resources and industry. I don't see too many happy endings here.
I think we are headed for a totalitarian outcome.

The reason that I fear that our dance with Peak Oil will be a rather fascist affair, comes from recent history. I would like to point out the elites in this country are showing a Marie Antionette sort of contempt for the "little guy" in the following examples:

(1) The handling of Katrina as it approached New Orleans.

(2) Apparently, with intent and foreknowlege, placing Katrina refugees in Trailers known to be toxic and substandard (can you say Genocide?) The Katrina people aren't wonderful, I live in Houston, so I know, but this was still ugly, anyway you look at it...

(3) Stalling legislation preventing lower cost,life saving drugs (from Canada) for senior citizens by claiming the drugs were unsafe, at the same time lowering funding for the Food and Drug administration for testing imported food into the U.S. (like Chinese lead-tainted products)

(4) Treating our sons and daughters from the Iraqi war theatre like dogs (or worse) when they come back wounded to the filthy, Walter Reed facilities.

(5) Taking debris from the 9/11 site, not long after the disaster, and using it, complete with occasional human remains, as pot-hole filling material. (Yes, this happened, to the outrage of the surviving families)

(6) Manipulation of the money supply by the Federal reserve, which as elsewhere noted here, will bailout wrongdoers at the expense of the Taxpayers, to the limit of Bankrupting the system, with no concern for how that will affect average people.

Many of you could add other instances of elitist malevolence against the U.S. population, as other bullet points, but there's little doubt in my mind that the elites will use whatever crisis that evolves through the financial or energy issues as an excuse to take more control of our money, and remove our means to seek redress or maintain our status as free members of a free society.

[sangell]

Its probably a good idea to remember that just as we got to where we are incrementally we can slide back in the same fashion. It doesn't have to come in a cataclysm.

If you drive around most American cities and suburbs you can pretty much tell the decade in which a house was built by its size. In the 1950's we lived in modest ( by today's standards) homes. In the sixties they got a bit larger and so on till we have early 21st century examples of giantism. Ironically the size of our households began decreasing in 1964

So, let's assume we have to return to a 1950-60 standard of living. One car in the driveway in front of a smaller house but America in 1960 was not the Road Warrior. It
was "Leave it to Beaver' for the middle class and "The Honeymooners"
tenement apartment where working class Ralph and Alice Kramden battled in their spartan kitchen with its tiny refrigerator and sheetmetal countertops.

mlytle mentioned the 'underclass'. Well America had its poor back then and black poverty was especially harsh but there wasn't an 'underclass' of the sort that appalls us today. The Supremes could have a hit record warbling of the dangers of illegitimacy in "Love Child" and if murders were
not unknown in the ghettos there was not the wholesale slaughter that our post segregation welfare society produced.

So no, I don't believe America cannot endure hardship. It is affluence that seems to have been the real menace. That has sapped our people of morality, decency and responsibility. If our material
wealth must decline, and I'm not sure it must, it does not follow that we must sink into barbarism. It may even produce a more virtuous and civilized populace.

[mlytle]

Hi Sangell,
I would agree with your point that affluence has been our worst enemy, and that virtue may return. However, I think that the benign political landscape we have taken to be our birthright as Americans is rapidly being replaced by cabal of moneyed interests that have financial domination as their first concern and class domination as their second interest or as a necessary condition of the first.
I think any scenerio(s) that fail to take into account the "in your face attitude" growing among our corporate, governmental, and power elites is probably not a viable outcome.

[mlytle]

Hi Sangell,
I would agree with your point that affluence has been our worst enemy, and that virtue may return. However, I think that the benign political landscape we have taken to be our birthright as Americans is rapidly being replaced by cabal of moneyed interests that have financial domination as their first concern and class domination as their second interest or as a necessary condition of the first.
I think any scenerio(s) that fail to take into account the "in your face attitude" growing among our corporate, governmental, and power elites is probably not a viable outcome.

[petetoth]

Brilliant!

One actually looks forward to Mondays thanks to your absolute gems.

Thanks for giving a shit.

Pete Toth

[Gary49er]

Posted by: Evelyn | March 31, 2008 at 01:04 PM

Posted by: InTouchWithInnerOptimist | March 31, 2008 at 02:04

Thank you both for the courage to say so in such an unfriendly location.
Take that as I agree....................

[Gary49er]

Ditto to:
Posted by: sangell | March 31, 2008 at 02:24 PM

[scott]

Free-market thinking takes hit from US economic crisis

http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=210304&version=1&template_id=48&parent_id=28
SNIP
Ed Yardeni at Yardeni Research said Fed chairman Ben Bernanke “made monetary history” by opening the discount window and “crossed even further over to the dark side of financial socialism” by allowing the firms to pledge illiquid mortgage debt as collateral.
“Comrade Ben is determined that there will be no financial meltdown and no depression while he is in command,” Yardeni said. “Given the initial positive reaction in stock prices last week, I suppose this means that on Wall Street, we are all financial socialists now.”

[LaughingAsRomeWasBurningDown]

Sangell, I'm having trouble seeing where you are coming from. Seems like the 1950's and 1960's were possible because of cheap energy. Wasn't the U.S. peak about 1970 or so? I think you are off by about 50 years, imagine what life was like in 1900 or so, and that might be a better LZ.

[LaughingAsRomeWasBurningDown]

and by "better LZ", I mean a more likely standard of living etc. or in other words, I don't see anything on the horizon that's going to set the clock back to 1960. 1860, yeah, I'd probably agree to that, but 1960, don't see it.

[Dr.Doom]

Damn, that was a good post there, moo! I think you've upstaged Jim Kunstler with that one, and his is very good this week, also.

I can only add that historically, if we use France as an example, the upper class "elites" will be losing their heads for awhile, until things settle down some.

Agree with Holmes, great comments so far this week.

[theroachman1]

Posted by: Evelyn | March 31, 2008 at 01:04 PM

Evelyn you may want to believe everything is going to be fine and it may be just that. Corn may save us (rolls eyes) or UFOs but really did you not here the love President Bush got from the croud?

http://www.alternet.org/blogs/video/#80750

I really did not know that booing was some sort of thanks for the great work and why the heck would a "good" pitch be a sign of hope for the world?

And business degrees??? are a dime a dozen (had three offers this morning in my email)

That baseball game is a prime example of what is wrong with the country. Total energy waisting, just like NASCAR.

44000 fans got to the game how? Driving, walking or public transportation?

[theroachman1]

Posted by: mlytle | March 31, 2008 at 02:22 PM

Well put but I don't know if it is knowingly being done. More just a slow progress of events unfolding in front of a sleeping public. To busy watching TV or playing video games to care about the infrastructure of this country falling apart at the seams.

[scott]

I agree Doom, moo's rant was a thing of beauty.

[Dr.Doom]

"Thank you both for the courage to say so in such an unfriendly location."--Gary49er

Excuse us? Since when it this location or its commentors unfriendly? We are being critical of techno-optimist bull because: (a) it is untrue/false/misleading; and (b) it ultimately hurts people when you give them false hopes. If you can't tolerate the kind of criticism dished out here, thinking us "unfriendly" because we call you out, please find out where Patrick ran off to and join him/them there.

[scott]

I wish "patrick" would come back here, he is a good analyst, we need that kind of "leadership".

[Dr.Doom]

yeah scott, and he's such a writing machine. Wait a minute...was he a bot?

[Gary49er]

So - I guess this was a 'friendly' reply to Evelyn:
"I guess you are a comedic troll sock puppet. If not, see that granite counter top over there? Bend over you stupid bitch. Hope you like it rough."

In any case .. have it your way

[Uncle Remus]

"moo's rant was a thing of beauty"

And moo is ranting to the choir. Moo rehashed what has been written here and elsewhere a thousand times - albeit better than most - can't deny that.

Until the idea embodied in that rant become lumpen mantra, nothing will change.

Saying something is one thing, effectively communicating into another's conscious thought is another.

When Wall Street has a spike in ventilated foreheads at the hands f$%ked lumpen, we can get rolling.

Before it's over, ugly will be redefined.

[scott]

I hear ya UR, but ventillating heads on Wall St. is not the answer. The best analysts are on Wall St. What we need to do is to put our noggins together to figure out the best way to manage this decline. moo's rant accurately describes the inefficiencies that are/will be a result of ever increasing government control.

52% of American consumption is directly attributable to government activities that contribute nothing towards the betterment of the human condition other than maintaining the government apparatus.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=URFbwUkBrjA

[sangell]

US oil consumption ran from about 2.5 million barrels/day in 1950 to
3.5 million in 1960.US population has increased about 60% since 1960 so even if we used with the same efficiency ( or lack there of) today as in 1960 we could support a 1960 economy on about 5.5mbd which is about what we currently produce.

Now nobody wants to go back to a 1960 living standard even if that would not mean returning to the age of tube TV's, 8 mpg Cadillacs with fins and silver coinage but my point was to say that peak oil is not going to arrive as a sudden end of oil but a gradual petering out of supply such that we might find our standard of living sliding back toward 1960 levels, not the stone age. Further, for those of us who were alive in 1960 it wasn't a time of barbarism and horror. It was actually pretty pleasant even if homes were smaller and families typically only had one car.

[Dave]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2p5gW2vJoeQ

[scott]

"Further, for those of us who were alive in 1960 it wasn't a time of barbarism and horror."

hey sangell, I was gonna say dumbfuck but hey, gotta be cordial right?

There are similarities between the 60's and what we are headed for but what quickly comes to mind is the WAR IN VEITNAM.not such a pretty picture huh?