Belief System

          My new novel of the post-oil future, World Made By Hand, is available at all booksellers. ____________________________________                         

      A friend asked me how come the public apparently grasps the reality of climate change but can’t seem to wrap its collective brain around the unfolding oil crisis.

        I'm not convinced that the public does grasp climate change. It's perceived, perhaps, as a background story to daily life, which goes on regardless. Are you even sure Hollywood didn't invent it -- and maybe some boob at Time Magazine is selling it as though it were really happening?

      Few have anything to gain by espousing denial of climate change. It's hard for most people to tell if they have been affected by it. It doesn't quite seem real. Those who actually make gestures in the face of it –- screwing in compact fluorescent lightbulbs, buying Prius cars -- end up appearing ridiculous, like an old granny telling you to fetch your raincoat and rubbers because a force five hurricane is organizing iself offshore, beyond the horizon.

     The public appears aggressively clueless about the peak oil story. They do not accept any threats to the motoring regime. The news media is surely not helping sort things out. I saw a remarkable display of ignorance on CNN last week when the new resident idiot-maniac Glenn Beck hosted Teamster Union boss James Hoffa and they agreed that the oil companies were to blame for high fuel prices. To put it as plainly as possible, Beck doesn't know what the fuck he's talking about, and it's disgraceful that CNN gives free reign to this moron to misinform the public. It's perhaps equally amazing that Hoffa doesn't know we have entered a permanent global oil crisis based on demand having outrun supply. These two idiots think that if Exxon-Mobil built a new refinery down in Louisiana, everything would be fine, diesel fuel would go back down to 99 cents a gallon, and it would be Christmas every morning.

      This has been a pretty remarkable month, actually, with all the problems of "The Long Emergency" accelerating impressively. Oil is now testing the $120 mark, the airline industry is imploding (largely over fuel costs), the housing scene has reached a degree of collapse unseen since the 1930s, food shortages have strayed out of the Third World and begun to affect Japan and the USA, bats are dying of a mysterious disease in the Northeast, and the Arctic sea ice is shrinking away to nothing.

     We're in a strange collective psychic bubble. We'd like to forget about all these troubling rumors of hardship and bad weather and just get on with the daily task of making a living and paying for stuff and enjoying our customary entertainments. The comforting ceremonies of everyday life seem to continue. The freeways are still full of cars. Nancy Grace comes on TV dependably at 8 p.m. and is there deploring the latest pervert arrest. The baseball season has ramped up and the teams are criss-crossing the nation in their chartered airplanes. The stock market is actually going up -- what's wrong with that?

       But there's an equally eerie vibe out there that things are seriously out-of-whack. We're on the edge of something. We're at the entrance of a dark passage where some of the ceremonies of daily life meet resistance. You go to the WalMart and five of your six credit cards are refused. Uh oh. It begins to dawn on you that you're spending a quarter of your take-home pay filling up the gas-tank every week. There's no dial tone when you pick up the telephone. How could all the supermarkets in town be out of rice? The local hospital just declared bankruptcy. The neighbors down the street auctioned off all their furniture in the driveway last week. Why does the cat pick up so many ticks these days?

        Events are not through with us this year. They'll keep moving where they will whether we believe in them or not. I'm hardly even convinced that it matters who wins the presidential race this year. It could end up being the world's biggest booby prize.  

Comments

[asoka]

Great post, Jim... indeed, a strange vibe in the air... and all the messages being sent by nature and all the overt signs being ignored.

Life appears to be going on as normal... just as the passengers would be very normally enjoying their meal before the trainwreck.

We have gone from Blind Spot last week to Blind Faith that all will turn out well this week.

[Success Warrior]

Yeah, who ever wins this November loses.

I agree with all the rest too. I saw that the stock market was up and I was thinking, "wtf". There is such a disconnect from what we are seeing from really is and like you said, the feeling is palpable. We may not be able to see what's wrong because it's being hidden from us but things sure don't feel right.

[UncleYarra]

Nudge,
How are the numbers this Monday?
We went down to the coast this long weekend (Anzac day holiday). Saw diesel for 182.9 cents a litre, unleaded for 167.9 cents a litre.
However, one dinky little servo attached to a mechanic's shop was selling for 147.9 (ULP).
Interesting traffic jam(s) - people driving in through the out lane, etc.

[Autonomous Unit]

It seems to me that if the industrialized world were to switch to the massive use of coal, the chance of a Lovelockian world-wide death spiral by global warming is pretty high.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=541748&in_page_id=1770

So perhaps TPTB's plan is to first propagate the Global Warming meme. This may result in low carbon emissions becoming law, before the oil supply becomes too tight. If there are no limits on CO2 emissions, and the lights begin to flicker and glow orange, you know the pressure to burn all the coal, carbon output be damned, will be irresistible. So the media may be selling climate change first, as an attempt to encourage alternative arrangements that do not include desertification and flooded cities.

[Dr.Doom]

"It could end up being the world's biggest booby prize."

The Herbert Hoover Award. No, I guess that one's already taken by GWB III. How about the "FDR-Not" Award?

[Nicholas Paredes]

"Few have anything to gain by espousing denial of climate change."

Jim, you must not know many people in the oil industry! Science, the conclusive, incontrovertible kind is hard to come by with respect to climate, so our friends in the industry are loath to dis the feeding hand. There are so many ways to slice and dice the current storm that perfection is the least of our problems.

Grasping the climate, oil, economic, social changes at hand are beyond most. Most of us don't grasp them completely or coherently. Who the hell would want to? Ugly would be an understatement. The issue at hand is to educate people to execute an effective plan to survive. Contrary to some, I think it is more analogous to Siddhartha's patience and fasting than doing anything.

[massyk]

Desperation sets in...

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/04/26/BUCN10C1KR.DTL&hw=pray+gas+prices&sn=003&sc=638

[asoka]

You can take away their gas... but they will cling to their religion.

[Francesca]

Yes, we are moving closer to the edge. And I do think people are feeling the "eerie vibe" you speak of. But most of the talk these days seems to be of raising awareness and changing policy.... oh, and increasing our consumption of all those shiny new green products.
Truth is, even people who care and are fully aware of what is happening get up in the morning, drive the same route to the same job that they afraid to lose since they have no safety net and a ton of debt. So what is this family to do, living as they are, paycheck to paycheck, no healthcare, needy kids, maybe needy parents? What are we asking them to do with all the information and warnings about climate change? Pile everything they own into the aging SUV and head... where exactly?

[free_way_4_life]

Glad to actually check in on "Sunday Evening" this week, and glad to see some other apparent newbies commenting so early on in the cycle, as diversity and new dimensions offer some rare hopes toward our species, and no I don't mean strictly Obama and Cornucopia Orgasm Quantum Mechanics, although I'm all for seeing Hillary get sent back to DC ... I mean Pinder's Corner, and supporting concepts such as algae farm diesel.

OK, so speaking of the election, I just got back from working the WWE Backlash at the Baltimore Arena tonight ... LOL, JHK, you are dead on about the masses enjoying their customary entertainments as the world around them only gets stranger. Isn't it sweet though, as a gallon of gas in this town ($3.55) now costs more than an all day transit pass ($3.50)!

Gonna cash in tomorrow, get that passport in the burbs (just in case America becomes even more insane than it already is) and then come back to hoard as many bags of beans and rice as I can carry up the light rail (or the #27 depending on how MTA flips its flakiness coin) from the North Avenue Save-a-Lot.

Then it is on to the ultimate task. That is, making sure my roommates' cats, Julia and Sun-Ra, are not spreading those deadly fleas to my house's vegetable garden!!!

MAY PEACE BE WITH YOU ALL IN THIS YEAR OF THE INDEPENDENT HUSTLE!!!

[UncleYarra]

Francesca J,
That is why it's a clusterfuck.

[Nudge]

Jim, nice post. I have not been able to figure out the stock-market type of denial. There's sh*tty news everywhere, but on the morning that some vaguely-known stock is reported to be “doing OK”, it's as if Wall Street gets infused with Zoloft and suddenly everyone is feeling hunky-dory and the numbers start drifting up. Wtf? It's not as if news of Google having OK expectations for the second quarter is enough to make up for the damage caused by 99 out of 100 other companies faring poorly. It's like they there seize on any flimsy message of hope while ignoring the very real danger signals all around them.

Perhaps Wall Street is a good example of irrational behavior or collectively-maintained group delusions. No, kids, things are NOT okay.

The numbers today are little improved from yesterday. On the national average, gasoline is 0.4c up to $3.603, and diesel is still at yesterday's price of $4.243.

Francesca J, you said it rightly ~ where is there to go? Nowhere. Moving to another town, where jobs are just as hard to get and keep as they are in one's current location, makes no sense. Food and fuel are priced largely the same everywhere in the United Parking Lot of America, though of course the food can be cheaper if you grow it yourself. Unless you're moving in with relatives who'll charge you little or nothing for rent, moving from A to B right now has all the overtones of changing staterooms on the Titanic in its final hours. It's not going to make much difference. No one's jobs are guaranteed these days.

Everywhere, things are the same. Energy is getting more expensive. More homeless, foreclosed, evicted hungry former middle-class people with their kids and a few possessions crammed into their SUVs. Food banks everywhere are stressed and empty. Woodstoves disappeared from flea markets awhile ago. There is a sea change going on right underneath our feet, and it's not pretty.

[coyoteyogi]

Hoarding lots of food, converting paper money to gold coins, filling jerry cans with gas, etc. etc. will give you a small cushion against financial and climatic shocks but in the long run will be exhausted to survive. The only capital that will continue to grow is human capital and social capital. The best investment then is to network within your community, to support local businesses and initiatives and to give some time away every week in service to those who are caught by this crisis: children, elders, mentally ill etc. I have found that if I connect I feel much less gloomy and much wealthier. No one knows what the future will bring. Nobody. But in simple acts of generosity I can begin to build a future that is good to live in.
There is a difference between prudence and fear driven behavior. My advice to myself is to practice prudence but let go of fear ( and stay out of debt).
The power of belief is amazingly strong. The article about "praying for lower gas prices" was, hmmm priceless. Note the irony that the pastor prayed in Washington DC on one day and in Oakland California the next. Criss crossing the continent praying for lower fuel prices. Hmmm, I'd like to buy a vowel...

[UncleYarra]

Coyote,
A succinct reminder of the basics - well done.
And I hope the vowel isn't E for ethanol.

[ChrisM]

Hello.

Recently I had the pleasure of sharing the stage with Jim Kunstler at the NESEA conference.

My work in life is helping people to grasp the enormity of the challenges of our current situation and my approach is to begin with the economy.

Hey, we all care about our wallets, right?

I have begun to post a very condensed version of my economic seminar as a series of short flash videos on my website.

It is not all done yet (about 60% there) but the feedback has been quite positive and I invite you to review the material.

My sincerest hope is that you find it valuable and pass the link on to people you know who could benefit from a slightly expanded awareness of how things really are. This material is constantly being updated and improved, so I am also looking for constructive feedback.

http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

(If you only have three minutes to spare, begin on Chapter 3: Compounding.)

All the best,
Chris

[LaughingAsRomeWasBurningDown]

What the fuck is wrong with using CFLs and driving a fuel-efficient car such as a Prius? Seems like anything we can do to reduce our energy footprint is goodness, be it for global warming, or peak oil, or just out of being cheap, er, frugal... Seems like the only logical thing to do right now.

[Gypsyrogue]

Pleased to see that I am not the only one who feels that its all a bit odd....How with some of the worst reporting numbers being brought in, is the market going so well. Gold off more than $100 from its high of not long ago. $120 to fill the ute up the other day (Aust $) and food lines for some items in the US and UK

Mind you it was a lovly day in my part of the world so maybe I'me just being parinoid? I mean it was very nice and normal so how can it all be so fucked up...

Is it?

But I feel like someone is walking over my grave...

[bud4wiser]

Blind spot – yes, you could call it that. But more to the point – the current situation could be characterized by the “deer in the headlights” phrase. Yes, of course, there’s a large noisy train coming down the track, but its not here yet so – business as usual.

Bear in mind, no congressmen, no corporate chief, or for lack of better description – none of the “powers that be” are feeling the slightest inconvenience or stress regarding $4.00 per gallon gasoline. Few of them actually pump gas or drive their own vehicles anyway.

So bear in mind, this country is being run by a collection of people who elected George Bush – twice – and the economic canyon that divides these brilliant people who have “other folks” wash their cars and cut their grass and the grumbling grunts who have started to car–pool and quit buying name brand groceries is going to grow many more miles wide before any cogent consensus regarding a national “do something” – “do anything” policy is enacted.

A quick review of living arrangements among the differing social strata in Mexico, Haiti or Jamaica reveals how wide and deep these economic inequities can grow. Welcome to the new America, land of the great “deciders” and great “dividers.”

[Teabow]

It all sounds very Biblical in an end-times sort of way. (And, no, I don't belief in Biblical "prophecy".)

[zerotsm]

My last purchase of #2 heating oil was for $3.50 a gallon. I never thought I would see the day, but now electric resistance heat at $0.092 per KWH is less expensive than oil. Of course our residential electric rate is going up to $0.123 per KWH in a couple of years, but by then #2 will be over $4.00 a gallon, still making electricity the cheaper heating fuel in our area.

Another sign that the corporate world is clueless. I stumbled across the new regional distribution center for Lowe's last week. It is a giant warehouse, probably 3 times the square footage of a store with the longest wall filled with truck loading docks. What's wrong with this picture? No freight train sidings! I can understand using trucks to get goods from the warehouse to the retail store, but the only thing that makes sense at all to bring the goods in is rail. Maybe they are going to bring in a siding, I didn't get a chance to look on the other side of the building; they will have to, else the place will be useless in 10 years.

[zerotsm]

My last purchase of #2 heating oil was for $3.50 a gallon. I never thought I would see the day, but now electric resistance heat at $0.092 per KWH is less expensive than oil. Of course our residential electric rate is going up to $0.123 per KWH in a couple of years, but by then #2 will be over $4.00 a gallon, still making electricity the cheaper heating fuel in our area.

Another sign that the corporate world is clueless. I stumbled across the new regional distribution center for Lowe's last week. It is a giant warehouse, probably 3 times the square footage of a store with the longest wall filled with truck loading docks. What's wrong with this picture? No freight train sidings! I can understand using trucks to get goods from the warehouse to the retail store, but the only thing that makes sense at all to bring the goods in is rail. Maybe they are going to bring in a siding, I didn't get a chance to look on the other side of the building; they will have to, else the place will be useless in 10 years.

[ConservativeGreen]

"Pray for delivery from high gas prices"

Now for anyone who has told a spiritual joke. Like a man who is shipwreck on a raft and pray for god to save him, and he tells people passing by that he is waiting for God to save him. He dies, goes to heaven and asks God why he didn't save him. God says "I sent you a plane, a ship and a whale. Its not my fault you wouldn't take help".

So I pray that God send us a fleet of electric trolleys, city buses and inter-continental passenger trains.

[DanaJ]

Yeah, Jim, we are all in Dreamland, Bad Dreamland. This weekend there was a Monster Truck ralley at the local track, you could hear the brutes miles away. Meanwhile gas is over $4 for reg, and almost $4.10/gl for premium, and $4.45 for diesel. The next day there was a big article in the local rag about foreclosure, and from the zip code map on the back page it looks like almost HALF the town is being repo'd. Mebe we are all dizzy because things are starting to swirl faster as we get closer to the Big Pipe at the bottom of the bowl....

[DanaJ]

Yeah, Jim, we are all in Dreamland, Bad Dreamland. This weekend there was a Monster Truck ralley at the local track, you could hear the brutes miles away. Meanwhile gas is over $4 for reg, and almost $4.10/gl for premium, and $4.45 for diesel. The next day there was a big article in the local rag about foreclosure, and from the zip code map on the back page it looks like almost HALF the town is being repo'd. Mebe we are all dizzy because things are starting to swirl faster as we get closer to the Big Pipe at the bottom of the bowl....

[JJackson]

Let's just pray for a solution like these idiots.

http://blurbiage.blogspot.com/2008/04/rocky-twyman-has-radical-solution-for.html