Blind Spot

  My new novel of the post-oil future, World Made By Hand, is available at all booksellers.

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     I happened to be flying into Minneapolis the very day that Northwest Airlines announced its merger with Delta --Delta to be the more senior (more equal) partner -- in effect, to absorb Northwest and run its operations. Many observers are not optimistic that the merger will rescue these companies in any case, since both airlines are financial basket-cases, but it's a sort of last-ditch effort to save them both.

    It was less than great news up around Minneapolis, Northwest's corporate headquarters. A lot of people I talked to were anxious that Delta would cut service to a lot of little cities in the upper Great Lakes and northern prairie region, places like Duluth, Grand Forks, Green Bay, Traverse City and many other towns. Instead of one or two flights a day, they may end up with one or two a week, or none at all, they feared.

     The Northwest pilots were none too pleased, either, because Delta was making noises about their own pilots seniority counting for more than Northwest's pilot's seniority in terms of preferred assignments and scheduling. In fact, the Northwest pilots were so pissed off they threatened to scuttle the merger.

     That part of the country is a big region of wide open spaces Things are very far apart. You wouldn't want to drive a car from Des Moines to Rapid City, even if gasoline was a good bit less than the $3.50 a gallon it is now. Driving around the prairie is especially tedious -- and dangerous because of the tedium. The landscape is boring. The roads are dead straight and mostly dead flat.

     It happened, also, that I got a little guided tour of Minneapolis from the author-shlepping service that my publisher engaged. We rode past the old Minneapolis central train station. He said no trains stop there anymore (there's a dinky afterthought of a station next door in St. Paul). Anyway, the only train that comes through the Twin Cities is the pokey once-a-day Amtrak to Seattle.

     In other words, this region of the country has next-to-zero railroad service. Can we pause a moment here to ask: exactly how far does America have its head up its ass? Do you get the picture? Can you connect the dots? The airline industry is dying and absolutely no thought is being given to how people will get around this big country -- except to make the stupid assumption that we can just drive our cars instead. Even during the several days I was around Minneapolis, no news media or politician raised the subject of reviving passenger railroad service.

      In point of fact, these are exactly the kind of trips that would be better served by rail, anyway -- the towns that are less than five hundred miles apart. The travel time between trains and planes would be comparable, considering the two hours or so that you have to add to every airplane trip because of all the security crap, not to mention the delays. As a matter of fact, USA today ran a front page story two days after the Delta / Northwest announcement saying "Air Trips Slowest [now than] in Past 20 Years." Subhead: "Trend likely to persist as congestion worsens."

     One big reason for the airport congestion, of course, is that the runways are cluttered up with planes making trips of only a few hundred miles. This has been a problem for quite a while. Periodically, it gets so bad that the media gets all excited and sometimes (last summer, for instance) the President makes a statement deploring it. Since the current president is a knucklehead, it apparently hasn't occurred to him to get behind a revival of the passenger rail system. But Mr. Bush is apparently not the only elected knucklehead in this country, because absolutely nobody is talking about this.

     Now get this: we are sleepwalking into a transportation crisis. As I already said, the airline industry is dying. The price of petroleum-based aviation fuel is killing it. And forget the fantasies about running it on bio-diesel or used french-fry oil. Driving cars will not be an adequate substitute, either. It's imperative that this country gets serious about restoring the passenger rail system. We can't not talk about it for another year. We must demand that the candidates for president speak to this issue. If you who are reading this are active reporters or editors in the news media, you've got to raise your voices behind this issue.

Comments

[Nicholas Paredes]

Jim,

Nobody gets it. If you ask a random person, would you like to take the train to x destination? They will blankly stare at you. They would rather travel to the airport, wait in line, wait for the flight, wait, wait some more, arrive at the destination, and travel to the city or destination rather than board a train and arrive.

A friend recently took a trip to San Fran from Chicago via the train, and had a good trip. I would equally like to take such a trip, pack a bottle or two of wine of wine, some food, and some books, and wake up in the city. I am not a gauge for the US of A!

There will be no call to arms ahead of time. People will wake up in the burbs, and feel trapped. Trapped in their depreciating homes, trapped at home, and essentially trapped outside the urban areas rapidly escalating in cost.

Tossing busses on the street for waiting passengers is easy. Paying people low wages to dig canals or build railways when they have no other options is easy. People have the power to choose, and like when they chose autos, choosing close knit communities will be mind-bogglingly profitable at the appropriate point.

A friend this afternoon was regaled by my bleak discussion of the energy dynamics facing us. This is a well read individual. We are so screwed. But, misery loves company, so save store a few cases for the bad times. Sharing will be always welcome!

[Nicholas Paredes]

By the way, don't miss the Onion article this week on US Air replacing planes with busses…

http://www.theonion.com/content/news/southwest_airlines_now_taking

[se-cyclist]

How about making inter-city buses efficient and pleasant? Maybe there are already diesel hybrid buses.

I've been on buses in other countries (Australia and the UK) that are fairly pleasant. For trips that are not too long, say 8 hours or less, I'd be happy to take a bus instead of a train.

[scott]

The situation is getting desperate here in the U.S. for the average citizens transportation needs. Our development of the past decades has practically mandated car ownership to travel to and from work and shopping centers under the assumption that fuel would always be cheap.

We are living in the last days of cheap energy and cheap resources in general but hardly anyone knows it. Why? -- because all of our governmental and business policies would have to be altered from expectations of growth to immigration, road projects, housing development, anything surrounding growth -- nobody wants to do that.

Americans are being squeezed by what has been strengths of our economic model -- cheap energy inputs and cheap labor inputs. We no longer have cheap energy but immigration is exploding both from south of the border and Asia. --Were trying to grow our way out of our problems.

[david]

Jim,

Nobody, and I mean nobody, is going to get out of their cars until they have to. $10 a gallon at minimum, more likely $15.

I live in the San Francisco Bay area, where there are many options for public transportation. Spoiled white people will not use it. They will take their cars.

One person said to me, "Public transportation is for the person that comes to my house to scrub my toilet, not me."

We are fucking doomed.

[FARfetched]

Hey, I have an idea. Let's ignore the situation, and just TRAVEL LESS. We've got good audio-conferencing tools, some video-conferencing tools that work most of the time, instant messaging so we can talk to co-workers (even in the office, I'll get IMs from people two aisles away), and good ol' telephones for when everything else wants to play hooky.

I think the focus should be on local/regional transportation systems. People need to get to work, or to the shopping centers (or medical centers), but everything else is pretty much a want rather than a need. Vacations near home might be fun if you don't have in-laws depending on your presence to breathe.

[Kevin]

Actually, there is much discussion her in Ohio from the state government in creating a railroad service to connect the bigger cities and sever of the medium and smaller towns. I've included a link to some of the press releases below.

http://www.dot.state.oh.us/Ohiorail/Press%20Releases/Press%20Releases.htm

[Kevin]

Haven't responded in quite a while to Mr. Kunstler's weekly blog, but I also wanted to say that I live in the Toledo area and I'd be surprised if anybody ever flies to Cleveland or Cincinnati...but I know people who fly to Chicago which is only 4 hours from here by car. Maybe if more states do this we can get a good rail system back in place. The governor in Ohio does seem to understand much about the energy predicament we may be in.

[dalea]

Currently in Los Angeles. The subway and bus lines are overloaded currently. Mass transit ridership is way up here. And the crowd includes lots of white people, many in suits.

[scott]

LOS ANGELES (AP) - Chinese-Americans rallied outside CNN's Hollywood office on Saturday to demand the firing of commentator Jack Cafferty for calling China's goods "junk" and its leaders a "bunch of goons and thugs."
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D905C3R00&show_article=1

Internet fuels mass patriotic fervor in China

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/04/20/asia/china.php

Public indignation has also been directed at Western news outlets, which are blamed for what is seen as one-sided coverage of the torch relay and what has been perceived as an anti-Chinese bias in their reporting on the disturbances in Tibet. In recent days, foreign news outlets here have been swamped by angry phone calls; two music videos circulating on the Internet assail CNN with expletives and lyrics like, "Don't think that repeating something over and over again means that lies become truth."

[Saint Bif]

Train of love's a-comin'

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4sAtX4Hds4&feature=related

[Johnny Rico]

@se-cyclist -

"How about making inter-city buses efficient and pleasant? ...
For trips that are not too long, say 8 hours or less, I'd be happy to take a bus instead of a train."

This really isn't that kind of website, but sure, we'll get right on it. Anything else we can do for you?

@dalea -

"Currently in Los Angeles. The subway and bus lines are overloaded currently. Mass transit ridership is way up here. And the crowd includes lots of white people, many in suits. "

What the fuck is that supposed to mean?!!!

Are there currently a lot of white people or are they currently wearing suits, I mean, currently.

[asoka]

So, here is the situation. There is no good bus or rail service and air transportation is getting worse by the week. That leaves cars.

I recently drove the California interstate highways and I was amazed by the rough ride and number of holes in the pavement--in an interstate highway!

And one of the candidates for president, PANAMA JOHN MCCAIN, wants to remove the gas tax to lower the price of a gallon of gas 18 cents. McCain is an idiot who apparently would be OK with more bridges falling down, more holes in the highways, and more failing transportation infrastructure.

"Our senior senator proves again that he is uneducated on the economy.
The gas tax may not be perfect, but it is pretty much the only tax that resembles a user fee because it goes to the roads. You drive on the roads and then you fill your tank and pay for your use.
Other tax revenues go into the government's general fund for redistribution to the politically-connected.
McCain's embarrassing lack of economic acumen is so pervasive within the GOP that fiscal conservatives see no hope for that party." --David Euchner Chairman, Pima County Libertarian Party, Tucson

[Johnny Rico]

Cash does Soundgarden. Check the burning dinosaur bones line.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DqR8Sks1jOY&feature=related

[Johnny Rico]

@asoka -

You're getting nervous about McCain, aren't you? 3 weeks ago you thought Obama was a done deal. Now you are attacking McCain every day. You're worse than Hillary :)

[Johnny Rico]

Why is he Panama McCain? Did I miss something? Is that like Panama Red?

Happy 420, By The Way.

[Johnny Rico]

So I finally read 'Blind Spot.'

Ehh. (or meh?- I don't know how to say it).

Looks like it was just thrown together. Might have been more interesting if you had actually done some research on the airline industry.

I know how I'll get around. Walk or ride a horse. I'm not stupid, I read WMBH.

You don't seem like you're gonna have that tough a time, not with the booksales to Rainwater.

My understanding is that the runways are clogged with private jets that don't pay their appropriate share of airport fees and ground-control costs and are flown by people with the obvious ability to lobby congress (i.e. buy whores).

No research. Just the evening news once a month.

[asoka]

JR,

McCain was born outside the United States in a foreign country called Panama.

Obama introduced legislation in Congress to specifically allow McCain to run for president, even though McCain was not born in the United States.

If you liked Bush, you'll love McCain. McCain is just as ignorant as Bush on military and economic and other domestic affairs, like transportation.

[Johnny Rico]

"McCain is just as ignorant as Bush on military"

C'mon. Do you know McCain's service record? What he did when he got back from Vietnam?

McCain was born in the Canal Zone most likely because his dad was an Admiral in the US Navy. He's not Schwarzenegger.

I know that because I'm reading a history of the Pacific War right now, and I saw the name McCain and looked it up.

I'm not saying I like McCain. I'm questioning what qualifies Obama as C-in-C.

Remember the Howard Dean (Meet The Press?) interview when he had no idea how many people were in the US military? No clue. Not even a guess. Admitted it.

Who cares if McCain doesn't know the difference between a Shiite and a Sunni? You are not naive enough to not understand the implications of that point when brought up by Juan Cole when McCain's opponent is Obama. Come On!

Besides, it's all about how big your lapel-pin is. The Democrats and George Stephanopoulos have tought us that.

I wish this country the best and I wish the next President of the US the best. I will probably vote with a coin (and also attempt to commit voter fraud by voting multiple times - y'know, just to test the sytem and write about it later).

But Hope is not a Strategy.

[Johnny Rico]

@Nick -

Great first post, btw. One of the best in a while. Good points.

This was your best line, even though it was a mistake (?) -

"pack a bottle or two of wine of wine"

[Laura Louzader]

The growth of government bureaucracy and regulation over the past 80 years, and the companion subsidies for almost everything, makes rebuilding the railroads very difficult when it should really be so easy.

Really, this is not difficult to figure out, folks.

Just cut all subsidies to the airlines, including monies allocated for the construction and maintenance of airport and air control, and short-hop air travel will be over.

Just remove the destructive, obstructionist regulation imposed on the railroads in the past 60 years, and passenger service will blossom almost overnight. It wouldn't take much impetus, only the assurance that they will not have to operate in a totally hostile regulatory and competitive environment, as has been the case since WW2. The landscape is ripe for the revival of passenger service, especially for trips under 500 miles. But the investment required in rights-of-ways, track, and rolling stock is so prodigious and has so long a payback period that no railroad will contemplate such an investment in a climate so hostile, and where they are required to subsidize their competition, the airlines, through oppressive taxes.

Forget about the government rebuilding anything. Our government long ago became so inefficient and so much the tool of favored corporations that it isn't capable of anything but promulgating more oppressive regulations and more layers of bureaucracy to add more costs to everything we might, as individuals, be trying to accomplish by way of conducting businesses that actually fill crying needs out here and turn a profit in the process, such as a reliable transport system that offers people an alternative to our current failing systems.

[Johnny Rico]

The monkeys are gonna be pissed when they log in at 9am tomorrow and realize I've been talking trains with Nick and Bif and asoka for the last 12 hours.

[Johnny Rico]

@Laura -

"Really, this is not difficult to figure out, folks.

Just cut all subsidies to the airlines...

Just remove..."

I totally agree. It's just that being hard(easy) to figure out is different from easy to fix(change).

You obviously understand this from your last paragraph-and-a-half.

It will take a revolution. Obama doesn't have what it takes. One of the reasons I've moved in the last year from disagreeing completely with JHK to thinking it will probably work out closer to what he thinks will happen is that Americans seem oblivious to signals that are slapping them in the face.

Nudge and Doom can see what is happening with gas prices. So can I.

Why can nobody that we try to convince be convinced?

N.B.- I did not convince Doom or Nudge or JHK. And they didn't convince me or one another. We all independently believed what we believe.

Apparently you gotta look like Jesus to tell someone they won't be able to afford their truck in three years.

I've been carrying the message since I read "The Hydrogen Economy" after the Blackout in 2002. JHK has me beat by a year. Barely.

Back to my point. Revolution? or $10 gasoline? Or both?

[Holmes, I presume]

Battle of the Greatest CFN Comments (during the last 24 hours)…

“Fuel efficiency is fast becoming the new black.”-- Nudge

“Apparently you gotta look like Jesus to tell someone they won't be able to afford their truck in three years.” -- JR

Clusterfuck Nation, you cast YOUR vote.

[Johnny Rico]

I cast my vote for Bunn Bunn.

Fuck! Holmes you made me lose my train of thought. Aaarggh! Think, Rico, think, Asoka...oh, yeah.

@asoka - You said you lived around the California area (or something like that). I don't know if you have a TV, but maybe you have a friend that owns one.

I'm pretty sure California gets PBS.

Masterpiece Theatre? Hello?

"My Boy Jack"

Rudyard Kipling's Son. WWI.

See It Now. Talk to Me Later.

...Ahhh.

Now back to what Holmes was saying. My vote is for Asoka. Asoka is cool. He eventually answers questions. He plays fair.

He plays to his strengths. I disagree with him on 9 out of 10 points and he has my complete confidence.

What shall we drink to?