Coup de Grace

 Update on Gustave Damage
 Thurs, Sept 4

DARKNESS AND FRUSTRATION REPLACE FEAR

The state's power grid sustained massive damage from Hurricane Gustav, officials say, and it could be weeks before all of it is repaired. Frustrated motorists poured back into the state hoping to return home, only to be turned back at checkpoints on all the major highways. Many grew frustrated as they roamed the state like gypsies or sat in motels they could scarcely afford, their cash running low and no way to get more.

Across the state, more than 1 million people were without electricity, which meant gas stations were unable to pump fuel, ATMs could not dispense money and restaurants could not open to feed people still unable to return home. Communication was made difficult by spotty cellular and Internet service.

OIL AND GAS CAPACITY IDLED BY STORM

(Bloomberg) -- About 96 percent of crude-oil production in the Gulf of Mexico and 92 percent of natural-gas output remains halted because of Hurricane Gustav, the U.S. government said.
Energy producers reported that 91 rigs and 599 production platforms still are evacuated due to the storm, the Minerals Management Service said today in a statement on its Web site. About 1.2 million barrels of daily oil production remain shut-in, along with 6.7 billion cubic feet of gas.

For additional info, go to THEOILDRUM.COM

    

       As I write at 6:30 Eastern Daylight Time, Hurricane Gustave grinds out of the Gulf of Mexico to make landfall on the Louisiana Coast at Port Fourchon, the marshalling yard for the oil and gas industry -- where the oil companies move people and equipment to the rig zone offshore. The storm spent the wee hours of the morning chewing through a wad of offshore drilling platforms and, perhaps more importantly, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (or LOOP), where all the oil supertanker ships from Middle East come to offload their cargos. It will probably be days before we know what was chewed up out there -- not to mention the spaghetti-like network of pipelines that run all over the shallow bottom to carry the oil and gas from the platforms to the refineries just up the Mississippi corridor between New Orleans and Baton Rouge.
     So, at this hour nobody knows yet what the outcome will be, either for the city of New Orleans and its suburbs, or for the oil and gas industry. My guess is that enough oil and gas will come off-line, be shut-in, or get disrupted to severely affect the normal operations of America for a couple of weeks. At the least, our just-in-time gasoline and diesel supply system will take a forced time-out. Those refineries on-shore are in the path to get hit. If they are damaged then we'll probably see shortages of motor fuels all over the eastern US.
     If we see a shortage of motor fuels, we may also get a disruption of trucking for the just-in-time food delivery system that keeps the supermarkets stocked. So, there is a possibility that Americans will experience both fuel and food shortages this back-to-school week -- and in some places it may be the not-back-to-school week if there is any trouble getting fuel for the yellow bus fleets. There has also been chatter about possible far-reaching damage to the old-and-fragile electric grid if this storm trips just the right switches, but that's in the category of idle talk for now.
     All the above is unknown so far, and I won't even venture to guess what may happen in the city of New Orleans itself -- except that the morale of its citizens must be badly strained as three years of re-building gets undone and the long-term future becomes an even more dubious proposition.
     Projected damage estimates on CNN early this morning ran into about the $30-billion range. This hit, and the potential disruptions to the everyday economy, could be the shot that finally pushes the long-teetering banking system over the edge. Surely the insurance industry, which is tied to banking and its worthless alphabet securities, will not be in position to cover all its billions of dollars in payouts. This may be what finally stops the game of musical chairs in which insolvent banks pretend to be capitalized by showing up for loans at the Federal Reserve's teller cages. For instance, when last seen before the Labor Day hiatus, Lehman Brothers was desperately scrambling for life-support from anybody and anything with a few billion spare bucks. As the hiatus ends and real-life reasserts itself, Lehman may finally find itself free-falling into the abyss, and the chain of mutual obligations, cross-collateralizations, and Ponzi plays connecting it to the other banks could break, bringing on a domino fall of insolvent banks and institutions.
     All the hurricane action has come at a bad time for the Republican Party. The roll-out of John McCain's ridiculous and cynical choice of a running mate, complete with pompom pumping cheerleaders, will remain front and center in the public's consciousness now while the party delegates go through a few procedural motions in Minneapolis -- taking it light on the funny hats, and the other usual festive hijinks, which would only seem indecent against the background of a profound natural disaster. Despite the poll numbers currently showing a fairly close race between Obama and McCain, the Republicans are well on-track to being regarded as "the party that wrecked America." So it's fitting that their quadrennial meeting should be solemn and restrained.
     This official last day of summer, Labor Day Monday, with roughly twenty percent of America's oil production getting chewed up, and the financial markets shut down, and the public in other places than the Gulf states kicking back with weenies and burgers, or watching the hurricane on TV, may be the last day of seeming normality in this country for quite a while to come.
     I will come back to this week's blog later this afternoon or evening when more is known about the outcome of Hurricane Gustave.

Update, 7:30 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time, Sept 1:

     Hurricane Gustave has now moved away from New Orleans and is stumbling northwest through the backwaters of louisiana toward Texas. Damage to the city of NOLA seems to be minimal at this time. But there is something very strange about coverage coming across on the cable news networks. While trumpeting the "dodged bullet" story-line, and the triumph of post-Katrina government bureaucracy, there have been absolutely no reports of what's happened to the oil-and-gas platforms offshore, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP), or the tangle of pipelines running along the sea floor from these things to the onshore terminals and refineries. I'm quite sure we will not get any comprehensive news about these things for days, because it will require a huge effort of up-close inspection. Gustave roared over that area as a category three storm. It is possible that a great deal of damage has been sustained and that we may still look forward to trouble with gasoline, diesel, and methane gas supplies in the weeks ahead. Playerz on the oil-and-gas futures markets must have been watching CNN and MSNBC all day -- and have no idea whether we actually have a problem out in the rig zone.

____________________________________
My new novel of the post-oil future, World Made By Hand, is available at all booksellers.
   

Comments

[Nudge]

Right to the point .. the next few weeks may very well be "interesting".

[robert magill]

For a look at real numbers and not media trifles check this out:http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2008/08/26/aol-straw-poll-aug-25-sept-1.

The poll numbers are the highest I've seen so far: over 500K this week. Obama is toast.

[westville_girl]

I love how JHK keeps repeating the phrase, "the party that wrecked America", hahaha!!

I certainly won't say I'm happy about Gustav's existence, but I will express my glee at the timing of the Republican convention....

[Nudge]

WG, isn't much of NOLA still below sea level, and still bereft of the many hundreds of square miles of swamp forest that once sheltered it from incoming storms?

Perhaps resettling the place was a bad idea we tried a few times too many.

At the rate the UPL produces garbage and other forms of waste, however, perhaps it would be a win-win situation to bulldoze out the bowl, collect refuse from all over this great nation, and make new earth there (essentially) as they do in Holland and Hong Kong and parts of Japan.

They say Bush will be glued to his presidential CNN screen throughout the main event. Although it's rather a late time for him to realize that his job entails at least a few responsibilities, it's good to see this sort of positive change in him. Heckuva job, Georgie.

[Laura Louzader]

At this time, about 95% of the population of coastal LA has been evacuated, or about 1.9 million people. Looks like everyone got on the situation a lot faster this time, and so far, things have been orderly, and most people are clearing out in an efficient manner and taking their animals with them. Therefore, we most likely won't have the loss of life we did 3 years ago

While I do not believe we will have major spot shortages, this event will drive oil prices sharply higher at a most inopportune time for the current ruling party. However, that party has, as usual, adroitly deflected the blame to the Democrats, on the score of their support of ant-drilling measures and tightened environmental regulations.

WHAT is going wrong with the Democratic campaign? I have only to say that if the denizens of this country elect McCain, they will deserve everything they get. Unfortunately, the Democrats have once more permitted their opposition to frame the debate over energy as a contest between pro-drilling, pro-auto Republicans away from vs. America-hating Democrats who want to take all our cars and boats and big houses away from us and make us pay higher taxes for socialized medicine.

I can only hope that the public finds McCain's choice of a running mate laughable, and give really serious thought as to whether they want this egregiously unqualified woman with her little B.S. in journalism from the U. of Idaho, and her two years of experience as the governor of a state equal to about half the population of Chicago's north side, a stroke or heart attack away from the president.

And even Hillary's Harpies are NOT going to switch their allegiance to this woman, whose politics are obnoxious, and totally opposite of everything Clinton purports to stand for.It may come as a vast surprise to Republican strategists, but women in this country, of whatever degree, generally do not identify with former beauty queens who are also anti-abortion Christian Conservatives and gun nuts.

[Shakes]

Palin is the PERFECT Post-Peak Oil Candidate!
- steward of Suburban, strip mall hell (Wallisa, Alaska)
- solve your energy problems by DRILL, DRILL, DRILL! Real hope comes in the form of black gold from under white ice in Alaska, Real Change comes by switching from Middle East Oil to Alaska Oil
- the American dream of unearned riches and professional positions is alive.
- don't worry about this life, focus on the afterlife!
- go back to sleep everyone!

and the symbolism is perfect, someone of her qualifications is 1 heartbeat from the Presidency. How appropriate for a dying nation.

There is now a profound contrast between the Democratic and Republican ticket. If American voters back this Republican ticket, then the country deserves what it gets. Have a nice apocalypse!

[upstatebob]

Even though the banks and financial institutions have been gutted the "authorities" will and have changed the rules to pretend they are still there. At least the pillars are still standing at the front of the bank even if the drawers are empty. What gets me is that the goofballs running these places will still be pulling in ludicrous paychecks
for their expert services. The real damage won't be Gustav but the next rounds of stimulus checks sent by the clueless to the brainless.

[Nudge]

Good morning Laura.

This will sound horrible, but ever since the news broke last week regarding McCain's choice of running mate, I've been fighting the worst possible urge to write an Onion-like piece about how the fringe group "Soccer Moms for Higher Taxes" is delighted to finally have a politician in high places representing their agenda.

That same group made the news last year as a group of overspoiled SUV-driving suburbanite mommies who were willing to bend or break all rules of sense to ensure that little Bratleigh and her pals need ever suffer the humiliation of enduring anything less than Olympic- or university-grade sports environments or learning opportunities, no matter how small the burg in question or how limited its budget might be. SMFHT could be described as a Titanic anchor in search of the right rowboat to sink.

Missy Palin is almost the perfect SMFHT candidate.

I don't identify with the former cheerleader-slut type beauty queen soccer mom either.

[Shakes]

Palin is the PERFECT Post-Peak Oil Candidate!
- steward of Suburban, strip mall hell (Wallisa, Alaska)
- solve your energy problems by DRILL, DRILL, DRILL! Real hope comes in the form of black gold from under white ice in Alaska, Real Change comes by switching from Middle East Oil to Alaska Oil
- the American dream of unearned riches and professional positions is alive.
- don't worry about this life, focus on the afterlife!
- go back to sleep everyone!

and the symbolism is perfect, someone of her qualifications is 1 heartbeat from the Presidency. How appropriate for a dying nation.

There is now a profound contrast between the Democratic and Republican ticket. If American voters back this Republican ticket, then the country deserves what it gets. Have a nice apocalypse!

[emergentink]

Like Y2K, if everyone heeds the warnings and takes the necessary precautions, then after the fact the warnings look less necessary. It will be the hurricane after Gustav that will determine whether we really learned anything.

As for New Orleans, less and less people will want to settle in a city that requires a migratory mentality. Perhaps they can figure out a way to shut down for the hurricane season.

[Nudge]

Roughly paraphrased from one of last week's Mogambo Guru posts:

Intaxication (n):
Euphoria at getting a tax refund, which lasts only until you realize that it was your money to begin with, before the government borrowed it from you (via next year's taxes) then charged interest on it to give it back to you.

Heckuva job, Georgie.

[Nudge]

So where's the little troll from last week's post? The one who pretended to be Jim telling us to clean up our language or else?

Not sure who you are, little tard, but if you're going to do stuff like that, please try to deploy a little more imagination next time. Why not wait a week and come back with another one about how Jim is changing the blog over to pay-per-view (only $19.95 per year via PayPal) to use his blog?

Or perhaps you could try the line that Jim is putting his environmentalism into action and leaving both the book and electronic publishing arena, to focus on presenting the material via oral storytelling during his bicycle circuit of upstate New York?

You came across as someone who never wrote anything more complicated than a cheque for the cable bill, so these are just friendly suggestions. :)

[Lost Horizon]

I started following the Oil Drum several years ago thinking that Peak Oil was at the core of our coming problems.

I then slowly realized how intertwined PO was with Peak Climate and how the two would exacerbate each other and shifted part of my general focus to PC.

Since around last summer, mid July 07, when the banking/Ponzi started to publicly unravel, I realized that PO and PC were going to take a back seat to Peak Finance.

After all, when you're truly and utterly bankrupt as a nation and a global banking system, none of the vast systemic problems of Peak Oil or Peak Climate will be fixed because both mega problems will need plenty of capital to solve.

Not that having mucho capital solves either one, the biggest problem is a coherent public dialog on energy.

I've decided that a coherent public dialog on energy will Never Happen in America until we have been collectively kicked in the groin by an energy emergency and are hyperventilating on all fours, gasping for air.

I don't think Gustav is that messenger. It would have had to have been a CAT 5 running straight over the LOOP and then hooking with a little billiard English right up the Houston Shipping Channel and then pausing, as if on Divine Cue, and raining over Houston for 40 days and 40 nights.

This scenario might, just might, have provoked some 'Merikan Reflection.

Not gonna happen.

[theroachman1]

No effect here in Denver yet.

Gas still selling at the pump for 3.57 average.

Nudge

Onion peice? That would be supper funny. I first thought that was DanaJ's post before I seen your nic.

[Nudge]

Lost, it's highly questionable if even the Event From Hell you described would be enough to wake the slumbering masses to some dim awareness that yes, Dorothy, there are some big problems afoot that are going to take combined & coordinated effort from /all/ of us just to deal with.

So few seem aware that they have a responsibility, as citizens, to make sure they're educated and informed about what's happening, rather than just idly occupying couch space as the Faux News talking heads do their nightly little spin act. So few seem aware that not only do we as a people have the responsibility to do the above plus talk with others about things (even others we might disagree with) but that we have a centuries-old history of doing just that. This democracy thing isn't something you can snooze through on autopilot, just punching the buttons when told to .. You've got to want it to work and you've got to be actively involved.

No, the really big hurricane wouldn't do to get people to reflect on our FF energy addiction, it would simply lead our otherwise fine engineers and politicians to find some way, any way, to restore the flow of fuels so we can get back to business as usual.

Awareness of there being fundamental problems here in our baby-jeebus-blessed heartland, where ignorance and SUV ownership go hand in hand with drinking and excessive consumption of unhealthy fried food? Not gonna happen.

[Movenonup]

I was listening to news on the radio this morning. Everything I needed to know was in the candidates voices...

McCain: Using the hurricane as a photo op trying to seem in charge and presidential, a man of action! The man was oozing with smarm. You could tell from his voice he was "having fun." Sickening.

Obama: Sounding weak, effete and generally ineffectual as he says "We are not asking for supplies or organizing anything because we don't know yet who needs what. We are waiting until after the storm to act." In his wavering voice, you could hear how overwhelmed he was. He knows McCain out played him on this situation. Even though McCain comes off as a dick, Obama comes off as a pussy.

Bush: Diligently making the hurricane rounds to various locations like a good boy, doing as the handlers instruct him to. This isn't about redemption for Katrina, though that is the frame they would like us to swallow, this sad pathetic presidency is over all ready. When asked why he is not going to NOLA he says: "I thought about it but I decided I would be in the way." In the way you are, baby boy. And Daddy still doesn't love you as much as he loves Jeb. Just step to the side now while the real men get to work.

Oh wait, there are no real men out there on the playing field, are there?

I am disgusted.

I have never supported Hillary, it would have been a second term for Bill. Now I'm not so sure. At least between the two of them there are some stones and experience. Course she may have been doing no better right now.

On the financial house of cards, I am stunned every week it does not fall. Let the Russians cut off oil to Europe while parts of gulf energy production are off line in the US and things could get very bad fast.

I'm not ready, are you?

Good Morning USA.

[theroachman1]

Nice little CNN post showing how clueless America really is right now:

Diddy: Lower oil prices so I can fly on private jet

LOS ANGELES, California (AP) -- Fuel prices have grounded an unexpected frequent-flyer: Diddy.

Sean "Diddy" Combs complained about the "... too high" price of gas and pleaded for free oil from his "Saudi Arabia brothers and sisters" in a YouTube video posted Wednesday.

The hip-hop mogul said he is now flying on commercial airlines instead of in private jets, which Combs said had previously cost him $200,000 and up for a roundtrip between New York and Los Angeles.
"I'm actually flying commercial," Diddy said before walking onto an airplane, sitting in a first-class seat and flashing his boarding pass to the camera. "That's how high gas prices are. I'm at the gate right now. This is really happening, proof gas prices are too high. Tell whoever the next president is we need to bring gas prices down."

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Poor kid has to sit in first class. And so close to all those regular folk. He is really brave.

Smuck!

[theroachman1]

opps

the link

http://www.cnn.com/2008/SHOWBIZ/Music/09/01/people.sean.combs.ap/index.html

[Nudge]

Yesterday's pump prices here seemed stable at $3.55 ~ $3.70 depending on the station. Posters closer to the action have reported 10c/gallon upticks.

The video of McCain trying to look down Missy Palin's blouse, or checking her out from behind, while twisting his wedding ring and doing some obvious facial expression control work, is priceless. See the link over on ZK.

As far as the hurricanes go, well, there's still time this year for more action.

Uggh, I'm not driving anywhere today if I can help it. Too many zombies and dittoheads on the road. It's amateur day out there as every Nazgulcar daddy/mommy in the phone book tries to be a badder driver ~ with the whole fambly packed into the SUV too.

The traffic back from the cape tonight ought to be pretty special too.

Our esteemed Minister of Information could no doubt give the Palin / SMFHT story the treatment it deserves.

[theroachman1]

Sorry to be taking the hollywood aproach to Gustov but these rich people really are not living in the real world. They for the most part are living the life of plenty while the rest of us just eat cake. And it is worse for teen stars. My kids love Miley Cyris (((shutters))) Here is a quote of hers about her birthday. And how out of touch she and her Republican father are with real world issues

"I definitely want to get something bad on the road," Cyrus told Radio Disney on Aug. 21, adding that the vehicle must be "big enough for all my friends and to scare all the cars away from me. I'm a good driver but it's everyone else that I'm worried about!"

link:

http://www.people.com/people/article/0,,20220811,00.html?xid=rss-fullcontentcnn

[james howard kunstler]

Nudge--
I'm banning you from the list. I'm not going to tolerate anymore sheer stupidity here. Or effrontery
--Jim Kunstler

[theroachman1]

Ban Nudge?

You might as not have a blog or even be talking about this subject anymore.

Sounds like a troll to me.

[westville_girl]

Roachman, that was just downright annoying, hahaha! What a fucking asshole (Sean Combs, not you)...

Another example of censorship in my fine local newspaper: Evidently it's ok to post worn-out BS about Obama being a muslim, but my raising the question if Palin's kid is hers or her daughter's is off-limits...And even though I qualified this question as rumor, I also posted a link to a FACTUAL Anchorage Daily News story about Palin's extremely risky and stupid behavior in flying to BF-Nowhere-Alaska from Dallas, leaking amniotic fluid with a high-risk baby in her womb, and that got censored also....

I did get the joy of reading how "scared and desperate" democrats are with McCain's brilliant choice....Easy to think that way, I guess, when the local paper refuses to print any information that casts any doubt on Palin....

Funny how the locals on this newspaper forum tarred and feathered me for staying home with my own special-needs baby, but Palin is a hero to them for leaving hers at home and going back to work immediately....Guess I fucked up again (sigh)....

On a brighter note, I'm off to my beloved Westville for the annual Labor Day parade soon; it's one of the oldest LD parades in the state....Many friends there will be meeting my own adorable little special-needs baby for the first time; a joyous occasion for all of us....
My older son and I went to Westville's fireworks display last night - what a comfortable, happy little town...Places like that give me hope for some sort of future for the USA....

[deblonay]

So now the last act in the drama of US decline..the great storm..the financial collapse..Wow..Wagner called it the" Twilight of the Gods .... in Middle America it will be the Twlight of the Godly!! How did we all come to such a pass!!
Truly the end of Empire!!

[westville_girl]

"Nudge--
I'm banning you from the list. I'm not going to tolerate anymore sheer stupidity here. Or effrontery
--Jim Kunstler"

Ditto what Roachman said...If that happens you can kiss me goodbye too, baby!