A Nervous Nation

      This is a nervous nation. Though I'm usually allergic to paranoia, something makes me think that there's a back office in the US Treasury that is buying the entire Dow Jones Industrial Index at opportune moments -- like fifteen minutes before the closing bell -- at the direction of Mr. Paulson. He seems to easily spend $50 billion a day on other dubious hand-outs. At that scale, buying the whole Dow would just take his walking-around money. The idea behind it, my paranoid fugue goes, is to jack up the stock market enough around election day to give the dimmer members of the voting public the idea that the financial fiasco is over and happy days are here again. You can't put this past the Republican party, despite John McCain's friendly turn on Saturday Night Live, consorting with "the enemy" for laughs.
     Apart from that, McCain has run the flat-out most scurrilous campaign I've ever seen, despite his reputation as a war hero and a sterling fellow among the senators. He's run a campaign of malicious innuendo and slander, seemingly aimed at voters who would have trouble qualifying for the Special Olympics. And you have to wonder whether he actually requested Vice-president Dick Cheney to lay that "kiss-of-death" endorsement on him at the last moment. It could only have been better if Mr. Cheney borrowed some trick-or-treater's Darth Vadar costume for the grand occasion.
     What many people are nervous about, of course, is the chance of shenanigans with the voting tally. Just one minor feature of the general paralysis gripping this society has been our inability to get rid of those mischievous Diebold computerized voting machines that leave no paper trail. By the way, these touchscreen voting units are an example of the diminishing returns of technology. There was nothing wrong with the old mechanical units, but by making over-investments in complexity we've just created more problems for ourselves. This ought to be a warning to those in the thrall of techno-triumphalism.
     People are nervous not just because Mr. Obama might be swindled out of a victory, but because John McCain might get elected. Credibility in his judgment dissolved about eleven minutes after he picked the Bombshell from Wasilla to be a heartbeat away from the oval office. Anyway, the Republican Party needs to crawl off to a dark hole somewhere and either pupate into something better or die -- as the Whigs did in 1856. The Republican Party is not through wrecking America. They have three more months to destroy the US dollar and the economy that runs on it. And with Mr. Paulson shoving out pallet-loads of bundled dollars to the likes of JP Morgan, so they can continue doing the very thing that provoked this financial fiasco -- lending money recklessly to anyone with a pulse -- they might just "get her done!"
      Other people are afraid that Mr. Obama will hand out bales of money, too, only to a different class of people. I suppose he will. I hope he will show restraint and apply it to public works that benefit all Americans -- such as my pet project of restoring passenger railroad service so people don't have to drive, for instance, from Atlanta to Louisville or Cleveland to Columbus. Even so, the new President will face not only a tide of woes created by his predecessor, but very likely, too, an obese and ineffectual federal bureaucracy unable to carry out even well-intentioned programs.
     He will take office in what may be the darkest economic year this country has ever faced. 2009 shows every sign of being worse than this one, with house foreclosures and car re-pos accelerating, companies hemorrhaging jobs, oil prices heading back up (with shortages possible), and a large new group of the formerly middle class growing restive and sore in the background. It will be an historic act of governance if he can keep the lid on all this. Many people will be worrying, of course, whether he will even survive. The ghost of JFK and the dashed hopes he represented (however real or illusory) still haunt this nation.
     Apart from the awful debt deflation and probable rebound hyper-inflation that will whipsaw the nation cross-eyed, the new president will face the energy question. I hope he learns the fundamental lesson: that the only way we can hope to become "energy independent" is to severely reform our car-dependent living arrangements and live more locally. Anybody who believes we're going to run the interstate highways and WalMart on solar, wind, tar sands (which belong to Canada, by the way), oil shale, methane gas, algae-diesel, or used fry-max® is going to be disappointed. We'll have to inhabit the terrain of North America differently -- in traditional towns, villages, cities (scaled smaller, to a lower energy diet), as well as a productive agricultural landscape that will require more attention from live human beings (and maybe help from our friends, the animals).
     Much of the real work of the next president will be guiding a transition out of obsolete habits, practices, and expectations that we must shed whether we like it or not. The painful downscaling of the financial sector, from a bloated 20+ percent of the US economy back to something more in the 5 percent range, is only the first of these agonies. The transition away from suburbia -- our tragic misallocation of resources in an infrastructure for daily life with no future -- will be even more harrowing because of the psychology of previous investment, which will provoke a misguided effort to sustain the unsustainable, and squander our dwindling resources in the process.
      I reject the label "gloom-and-doomer" where these difficult transitions are concerned. There's a lot about the way we live now that is disgusting, degrading, demoralizing, and socially toxic -- from our suicidal diet of processed fat, salt, and corn syrup byproducts to the spiritually punishing everyday realm of the highway strip to the fantastic loneliness and alienation of a people made hostage to a TV-consumer nexus of corporate colonialism. Were done with that. We just don't know it yet. Mr. Obama may not know it, either, but he is a trustworthy soul to hold our hands as we enter this unknown territory.

Comments

[can you see it?]

Jim,

I agree, lets hope Obama is able to hold our hands through the next years.

[umass82]

I mostly agree with Jim on this but while perhaps Obama may be slightly better than McCain, I don't really see his as a person who has a "Truthful Soal"
He is just another Chicago politican, instead of bags of cash he got his home loan guarenteed by a nose breaker.

[greenbeans]

"The transition away from suburbia" is going to take a little longer than you may think. Behind my house is a beech-oak-birch-hemlock forest slated to be transformed into 200 single family cookie cutter units next year. The builders haven't yet gotten the memo that we are "done with that". Meanwhile having already battled this ill-considered plan through conventional routes I am now reduced to placing voodoo curses on the "developers".

[Tangurena]

This isn't going to go over too well. It is like having an intervention with a drug addict who still thinks they can cope if only people stopped bothering them. That being said, I think Obama is less likely to return to fantasyland when reality strikes - in contrast to wrinkly and winky, who repeat their platitudes louder, hoping to resurrect Tinker Bell.

Our local public transport system is trying to expand light rail service, but it takes time and time=money. While we've been claiming inflation in the US is very low, that actual measure is called CPI (consumer price index, in contrast to PPI = producer price index), and heavy construction (which 122 miles of rail line certainly counts) has an PPI/inflation measure running about 15%/year. It takes about 10 years to get large scale construction projects built, and with 15% (or higher) inflation, those projects very quickly explode in cost.

[oneEyeOpen]

Jimmy sez

"Apart from that, McCain has run the flat-out most scurrilous campaign I've ever seen..."

Is this your first campaign? You say scurrilous and offer not one single example. What up wif dat?

[oneEyeOpen]

Here's the rub. With Dimotwatts winning big in the house and senate they will have big expectations for Obama to deliver the goods. Obama will be forced to say, "No can do. We're broke." How will the dims react? Should be interesting.

[Cymon Dendu]

greenbeans,

I've got a 200 townhouse condo project in process for several years now on adjacent land, north of Boston. They are starting to get the message. They haven't built everything planned 'cuz they can't sell 'em. And the developer can't get free of maintenance 'cuz he hasn't sold enough units to hand it over to the association. And of course a recession won't help.

[vegasbob]

Jim, I think poisonous is a better word to describe McSame's campaign. Accusing the opposition candidate of "palling around with terrorists" while the crowd chants "terrorist" and "kill him" is without a doubt the lowest form of gutter politics I have ever seen. Labeling the opposition candidate a "socialist" based on a quote about the civil rights movement that does not even contain the word "economy" is equally baseless and absurd. This is the type of behavior that comes from a campaign whose standard-bearer supposedly lives by the military credo of "Duty, Honor, Country."

The Republicans have shirked their duty to actually discuss campaign issues (that would cause them to lose in a landslide), dishonored themselved with their over the top attacks on Obama, and in the process put the country last on their agenda.

The Republicans deserve to lose this election and lose it big. I am cautiously optimistic that despite their best efforts, the Republicans will not be able to steal enough electoral votes this time around.

I early-voted for Barack Obama here in Florida. I will admit that if elected, a President Barack Obama will not be a panacea or a quick fix for what ails our country. Our economic problems are far too great for any one person to fix. But what can change is the notion that all the economy needs is more tax cuts for the wealthy and more free trade agreements.

For the record, I was a Republican for 40 years, and voted for Bush twice. Maybe I was a little slow on the uptake, but I wasn't going to be fooled by the Republicans three times in a row.

[Empedocles]

More cognitive dissonance from one of America's foremost conservative commentators, James Howard Kunstler. Conservative? He's economically conservative in his dislike for the government bailing out private businesses. He's socially conservative in his attacks on baggy pants and "tattood barbarians." He's artistically conservative in his like for New Urbanism and traditional architecture and painting. He's internationally conservative in his dislike of military interventions. He's politically conservative in his dislike of centralized power and preference for localization.
Wait?! He's voting for Obama? Why would he vote for someone who agrees with him on nothing?

[Nicholas Paredes]

I have an excellent idea! Why don't we stop shipping our locally generated tax dollars to red, debtor states. Then we can rebuild the income generating portions of the country. Think this isn't gonna happen, huh? Watch.

People will happily contribute to a fair and balanced country. They will look out for number one otherwise. Look how far that has gotten us.

I'm not voting for a "truthful soul", I'm voting for the first liberal politician in a while who knows how to take on the baiting and bull sh*t. I'm all for kicking *ss and taking names, then providing for social programs and infrastructure rebuilding. Please remember that we did not actually have the money in the 1930's either. But, when people are hungry, they work.

[VinceF]

"Apart from the awful debt deflation and probable rebound hyper-inflation that will whipsaw the nation cross-eyed, the new president will face the energy question."

...and that is why I am voting for Obama. He will take the pragmatic approach to solving problems and not allow right-wing religious wacko beliefs to get in the way.

Refer to Bush and the Stem Cell Research veto to see how the repubs allow religion to get in the way of what's right for this country.

[Dave]

i've been watching a 100 acre corn field (big for around here, south central CT) get turned into mcmasions over the course of the last year and a half or so. they don't seem to be slowing down at all.

eh, ya can't stop a train wreck. about the best you can do is try to get out of the way, i guess.

[PensionMeltdown.com]

Jim,

Your pet project of reviving the rail system is even more attractive as a "mixed-mode" solution, adding bikes at either end. This is a reality in Europe, with London recently announcing bike rentals every 300 meters in the central city.

Brett

[Nicholas Paredes]

My Greek friend,

That is pretty good! But, Obama is a relatively conservative person. Politically, he's liberal, and thankfully he's winning on that count.

I think Jim is voting for competence and continence. It amazes me that nearly half the country would even consider voting for a ticket with Palin on it. No, it scares the shit out of me!

[DanaJ]

Well Jim, we'll see what happens the day after tomorrow: Will America decide to stick with the same failed Republican policies that have gotten us where we are now, or will they decide its time to try a change to see if there is something that might work better?
I am hoping, barring a Diebold victory for McCaine, that we will get to try something new for a change,and that the republicans will be relegated to the trash-heap of history, along with the Whigs.
I feel that Obama can and will pull the centrist republicans into the fold, leaving that rabid right to fester in thier own poisons. I also feel that he will be able to tell the far left Demos that they will have to be realistic in what they can expect too.
I am eagerly awaiting Obama's acceptance speech as to where he wants to lead ALL of us, and can't wait to hear his first State of the Union next year.
Obama is a realist, and he knows that it will be the toughest job of his life to try to clean up the mess the republicans have left this country in.
I just hope that the American people realize this too, and don't expect him to be able to do it all in just one single term, this will also require electing a Democratic majority in the Congress to be able to get things done and override repub obstructionism.
This is a point he must make to the American people, and a point that they must be able to accept.
There is no E-Z Solution, no quick fix to the mess we are in, it took Bush & Co 8 years to get us here, it will take a lot longer to get out of this hole we are in now, and we WILL have to make some sacrifices. Those that have profited the most should be asked to give back just a little of the accumulated wealth to fix things. After all, no sacrifice was asked of the American people by the last administration, when there should have been.
Anyway, we will see.

[Cymon Dendu]

"competence and continence"

Nice! Too late for bumper stickers, but I like it!

[LaughingAsRomeWasBurningDown]

Peak fertilizer, or hot corn-on-corn action:

http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=838&pageid=28&pagename=Sci-Tech

Historically, a ton of ammonia equaled the cost of about eighty bushels of wheat, that is, $2.25 for a wheat bushel against $200 for a ton of ammonia. This ratio held for forty years. Two years ago that long standing relationship broke down. Today wheat is $4.50 and ammonia is $1,000 – over two hundred bushels of wheat are required to purchase a ton of ammonia.

[FARfetched]

Nervous? Yeah, I think everyone is nervous. Whoever wins, we're screwed… it's just a difference in scale. If Obama wins, we're screwed. If McCain wins, we're screwed in the @$$ without lube and we don't get a reach-around. Bush-league has hosed up pretty much everything, and you certainly can believe in no change at all, which is why he's called "McSame."

Nervous? How about an email we got this morning, about thieves going around with a Sawzall and stealing catalytic converters? Crawling under my lowered Civic might be a bit much for them, especially since there's plenty of jacked-up TPCs in the parking lot providing easier targets. What are "they" getting for platinum now? Would manufacturers look carefully at the source of their new supply?

I hope that a President Obama would avoid making the same mistake that Clinton made, attempting sweeping changes from day one — he'd have to start with some things that any rational person (which excludes much of the GOP base) can agree with. The Iraqi government might give him some cover for getting out of Mess O'Potamia right away: "the mandate expired, they didn't agree to extend the occupation, our hands are tied." That would stop the worst hemorrhaging, anyway, and perhaps give us a chance to take care of business in Afghanistan.

And that's probably the sum of what will be accomplished in the first two years. The goplets will have 41-42 sinnertors and will filibuster pretty much everything until they get booted in 2010.

[FARfetched]

Oh, Greenbeans, I've heard that driving long spikes into trees at an angle really plays hell with developer's chainsaws. :-D

A new FAR Future went up at 7 this morning…

http://is.gd/67Yp

Rene is "somewhere," and Kim & Serena have gotten lucky with their postings.

[Frank Gifford]

Thank you Mr. Kunstler for your insight and comments. From one very important perspective, we are witnessing a lurch downward in the fall of western civilization. However, I hold out the possibility that Obama is a transformational figure who can help with the sometimes painful process of perceiving reality and designing for a "soft landing". For those interested in learning to develop perceptions, there is a group working in this area for the past thirty years or so, www.ishkbooks.com. I would urge those interested in the welfare of future generations of humans and animals to embrace the cultivation of positive thoughts, and to reach out to those with other beliefs, as we are all in this together. In order to leave a reasonable world to our children, we must embrace low energy lifestyles as quickly as possible. Yours truly, Frank from http://entropypawsed.org

[Nicholas Paredes]

Hi Far,

I think that O will wait to make any large changes until power is consolidated. Hopefully, he'll have the houses to support any actions. And, hopefully he'll start looking into war crimes sometime. The last eight years has been repulsive to anybody who doesn't deserve to be stretched on a rack themselves.

[Cymon Dendu]

Nervous?

Not so much.

Greg Palast did a good job of explaining Republican election-day shenanigans in "Armed Madhouse". I don't think this election is close enough for their tricks to make a difference.

Fingers still crossed though.

[Nicholas Paredes]

Isn't "a reasonable world", from your perspective? We've had a lovely couple of decades, which many around the world would love to share.

I'm hoping we simply begin to walk like we talk...

[Riddick]

I had a history teacher once, my best teacher ever, in fact the Dad of US Congressman Tom Davis of Virginia. "Doc" Davis was a very prescient sage back in the 70's. We (the chosen Seniors) all loved him(and the long Friday lunches with pitchers of suds off campus). Doc told us that America was built on a "House of Cards" with a foundation of political bluster and near maniacal devotion to the Imperial trappings of flag, apple pie and Amerika as God's chosen people. The "growth" matrix was inherently flawed when unleashed upon a finite globe (or celestial cage). But when profit is your motive your sense of right and wrong become skewed and God becomes merely a convienent partner to move the masses.

Tommorrow the masses either prove the delusion is total and complete and elect the decrepit old McSame who left his wife for the blonde and rich Cindy in a supremely Christian move. Or we choose Obama, the patron saint of change. We WILL be disappointed either way. McSame will continue the Bush legacy of greed and thus accelerate our decline and Obama will face basically insurmountable obstacles.

How long until folks figure out that it is really "game over, lights out." How graciously will they take it as they watch all the mega-yachts, silicone babes and private islands on the Travel
Channel? I bet not too well.

In the end it is always up to each of us individually; to prepare physically, fiscally and psychologically. Amerika is not immune from history, we are a part of it. The current chapter of disaster that students in a century will reflect upon and perhaps snicker.

As usual Jim, a very thought-provoking post and an insight into our future. Be advised, really. Take action not based on paranoia or insanity but the best interests of your family in this time of change.

[Jagger]

---------there's a back office in the US Treasury that is buying the entire Dow Jones Industrial Index at opportune moments -- like fifteen minutes before the closing bell--------

I am wondering myself....

I would not be surprised at all if the government or government backed/encouraged entities are manipulating the market artificially at this time.

Obama is a strong leader with superb judgement and hopefully, a solid set of priorities oriented towards the average American rather than corporate America. The best we could hope for considering previous candidates we have seen over the last 8 years.

However I am concerned he is more of a conciliator/consensus/manager type operator rather than a bold leader. The times demand a wise leader leading rather than a manager. Challenging and defeating the current entrenched economic and political elite defending the status quo will be a huge task for any man... even a president.

Time will tell.