In the Reality Lounge

     The G-20 came to Washington for the weekend and sucked all the air out of the city before announcing that they were really serious about patching all the leaks in the foundering ship of globalism. Well, they have to at least pretend that they are doing something. Meanwhile, the former bit player known as reality has taken center stage in the ship's main lounge. It is putting on an act even gnarlier than the Kit Kat Klub show in Cabaret.
     This reality show is sending some clear signals to the denizens of the real and really crowded world. The main signal is that the trade and financing rackets of recent decades are over. The extravaganza of economic hypergrowth based on cheap resources is over. The promiscuous swapping around of risk and rewards is over. There is no global institutional framework for managing the impairment left in the wake of this binge. It will be up to the individual nations now to figure out their national lives and livings.
     Alas, the financial impairment is still on-going world-wide and has quite a ways to run before it's finished working its hoodoo on the so-called advanced economies. The lame duck US economic posse so far has done everything possible except the two things that really matter: allow the fraudulent securities at the heart of the problem to be exposed to the light of day to determine their actual value; and allow those companies who trafficked in them to suffer the full consequences by going out-of-business. For the moment, they're content to shovel cash into the truck-bed of every enterprise in America that shows up at the Treasury loading dock. This can only have the effect of eventually destroying the value of that cash.
      President-elect Obama's cagey appearance on 60-Minutes showed that he's hardly in a position to say anything of substance about this country's predicament as long as the old posse holds the levers of the economic machinery -- and retains the ability to run it into the ground before January 20, 2009. So many tribulations are now underway in our Republic that it is hard to fathom what the head of the federal government might do besides act as a kind of psychological counselor-in-chief  to a land full of people in distress.
     The world has changed faster than anyone realizes. One big question is how long the American people will stumble around in a daze before we get back to work doing constructive things in this country -- and by that I mean activities scaled to the resource realities of the years just ahead. More specifically, I mean how we are going to grow the food we eat without massive quantities of diesel fuel and petroleum-based "inputs" and also how we are going to make any of the useful products we need in an energy scarcer time.
      Perhaps Mr. Obama knows that we're not going back to anything even close to the business-as-usual that shaped our lives for the generations born after 1945. I would advise him to begin thinking about this by dividing the problem into two parts. The first part is how his government might handle the sheer emotional fallout of a people whose standard-of-living will be pulled out from under them. For a while, perhaps the first year or so, the public is apt to be trusting and generous, especially regarding a president who has had some acquaintance with being short of cash himself, and who can speak English both clearly and empathetically. Mr. Obama stands a good chance at playing that role successfully, at least for a while.
      The second part, though, is the more difficult operational and administrative matter of promoting the necessary downscaling of all the essential activities of daily life. This is especially difficult given the current trend of the government suddenly taking ownership of everything, from the banking system perhaps to certain areas of heavy industry (if Detroit gets its way). The Obama government will have to resist the temptation to prevent enterprises from failing. These failing things have to get out of the way before new activities can get underway. It will also require government leaders to tell the public the hard truth that it can't do everything we would like it to do.
    The fiasco of medical care is certainly a product of connivance between greedy and heartless insurance companies, profit-driven hospitals, and avaricious drug-makers. But the public itself is responsible for its own suicidal diet of double cheez burritos and Dr. Pepper. How about a national health-care system with one basic requirement: to qualify, participants must be within ten pounds of their appropriate weight. Pretty harsh, huh? Maybe. But times are harsh too, and bound to get harsher. This system would have the great advantage of being absolutely clear. Let the United Way and other charities devote their resources to educating the recklessly obese about diet and exercise so they can eventually qualify.
     The transportation quandary suggests that we have to move away from the private automobile and commercial trucking, and that the airline industry is certain to contract dramatically. When are we going to start the discussion about rebuilding a US public transit system that was once the envy of the world? It no longer matters how much Americans love their cars, or even how much investment we've made in car infrastructure. At some point, we just have to face the fact that democratic mass motoring is no longer on the program. Nor is a commercial economy based on incessant motoring. One other implication of this is the necessity to use our waterways for moving things and people again. Has anybody noticed, for instance, that the once-bustling New York City Harbor, possibly the biggest and best sheltered deepwater harbor in the world, has next-to-zero operating docks left along its massive perimeter? While you're at it, have a look at the waterfronts of Louisville, Cincinnati, Kansas City and a score of other inland port cities on great navigable rivers. What you'll see are condo sites, festival marketplaces, picnic grounds, and plain old empty lots -- everything but the infrastructure for commerce. We can't afford this anymore. We have to put these places back to work.
     The G-20 leaders in Washington last week made a lot of noise about ramping up domestic spending. In the decades to come, this will not happen without import replacement -- which is just what it sounds like: instead of importing things you need, you make them at home, and people get paid a living wage to do it. Import replacement, by the way, is exactly how the United States rose in the 19th century to become the world's preeminent manufacturing nation. It doesn't foreclose trade with other countries, but it self-evidently changes the terms of that trade, and it would spell the end of the kind of predatory "globalism" that has led to the current state of gross imbalance and reckless destruction.
      I believe this will happen whether we like it or not, because these things occur in cycles and the current cycle is obviously ending with a thundering crash of economies, modes of operation, habits and practices, and expectations. For better or worse, we have to move on to new ways of doing things.
      I regard the most dangerous fantasy in America right now to be the wish that we can keep running things just the way they are now (my recurring synecdoche of WalMart, Walt Disney World, and the interstate highway system) by replacing oil and gas with "alternative fuels." This just ain't gonna happen. We're going to use every kind of alt.energy there is and they will still require us to live very differently than we did the past sixty years. The public just doesn't get this. I don't know whether President-elect Obama gets this. I hope he does, and I hope part of his new mission will be to clarify this state of affairs for the public in clear and effective speech. It's going to tick off a lot of them, but it's the theme music playing in the reality lounge right now, and Mr. Obama would be advised to take up the tune.
____________________________________
My new novel of the post-oil future, World Made By Hand, is available at all booksellers.

Comments

[Uncle Remus]

Funny one Jimmy. The fantasy Obama ticket for the new Workers Paradise in Amerika. Nationalized and Free everything!

Busted-ass broke means you keep using coal and oil because that is what you can afford, until you can't.

[LaughingAsRomeWasBurningDown]

You mean we are not going to have those new bitchin' camaros (Dead Milkmen are thrilled!) running on E85? Better let GM know:

GM Chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner announced today that GM will build an all-new version of the Chevrolet Camaro sport coupe based on the award-winning concept that stole the spotlight at the North American International Auto Show and has ignited the passion of car enthusiasts around the world ever since – even spurring consumers to start petition drives and send in certified checks in hopes of placing early deposits.

“The overwhelmingly enthusiastic response to the Camaro Concept continues to remind me of the uniquely iconic place our products can have in customers’ hearts,” Wagoner said. “Camaro is much more than a car; it symbolizes America's spirit and its love affair with the automobile.”

[Frank Gifford]

I recall walking in public places 20 years ago, noting the looks of distress on the faces of most people. We have not been a contented people since long before that. Change is frightening for most people. In the addiction business, it is said "a familiar hell is better than an unfamiliar heaven." The same applies to the rest of life. The human organism is not adapted to constantly changing conditions. As a matter of fact, from the perspective of Geologic Time, we all knew all of the people around us for our entire lives, with very rare exceptions, like when the wayfarer visited our village. It is quite possible for humans to feel content and fulfilled with a lot less stuff. Kids don't need to be transported to sports, lessons and activities to feel fulfilled. They merely need the attention of those around them, and a way to feel useful. What I am trying to convey is that a future that is more challenging and less materialistic actually has a lot of upside. We give the Natural world a chance to recover from its abuse by human constructs. Humans get the chance to be more connected to the Natural world, the Community of Life hopefully gets to re-balance. From one important perspective, we have spent the past several hundred years, and particularly the past century, converting diverse biomass to human biomass. Now we have reached the "Great Change"(Albert Bates), and we can all get on with the work of becoming human. That is what we seek to do with our project, http://entropypawsed.org

[Jynx]

As always, excellent post Jim.I greatly appreciate the dose of reality you provide every Monday morning. Now, If only every member of Congress and the president and his cabinet would read your blog, then maybe we'd get somewhere.

Oh and one other thing -- NO BAILOUT FOR DETROIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Hank]

How can I be broke, I still have checks in my checkbook?

The party is over. Dead.

Now we have to pay for it.

Obama isn't going to fix it. We need to retool the whole shop.

[robert magill]

Triage

Just a short ride down the National Highway but out of sight to most of us due to a stubborn fog lies a scene reminiscent of MASH just after the helicopters have landed.

The casualties are laid out under the tents as the surgical teams quickly make the rounds deciding each fate. Among the most severe cases presenting is an old familiar warrior and the team sadly concludes that hope is lost. The C.O., Major General Mo "Big Car" Culture is left behind as terminal and the group moves on hoping to save others. A dreadful loss.

Loosely grouped for lack of space around a snack machine in the corridor is a bevy of cooks, clerks and storekeepers suffering from acute shell shock. They are all from Company C, better known as One Big Red Hole, the Consumer Company ,and are referred on to the Psych Unit but the feeling is they will never be the same. The team moves on feeling despondent about all the waste.

Way back in one tent a nerdy bunch from the Signal Corp lie muttering incoherently in the code of their strange language of bytes, bits and daemons. Unable to determine the degree of distress because of communication failure the surgeons prescribe a greatly reduced level of future assignment.
This produces a temporary shock throughout the group as they lapse briefly into reality and see the Web of their lives in tatters and a future of typewriters and pencils.

At last a hopeful note. These can be saved! The surgeons gear up for action and the area is intense with anticipation for a unit of heavy equipment operators show little damage. The prioritization has paid off. This bunch will be up on the rails again and when the trains leave the station will be headed for some much needed R&R.

Oh, no, another disaster. This is a horrible mess. Blood on the floor, gaping wounds abound. An outfit made up of SeaBees and Army Corp of Engineers were careless and hit a big landmine. They are in terrible shape. These stalwart barracks builders may never build again in the same way. Time will tell but the prognosis is bleak. The senior medics all agree that no time should be wasted on these poor souls and they are abandoned.

With General " Big Car" Culture diagnosed as terminal the boys from the Motor Pool have fallen into despair and languish about. The Chaplains try to raise spirits by counseling good cheer and providing pamphlets on Animal Husbandry and Buggy Construction from a nearby Amish settlement.

Now, in the distance, the sound of incoming choppers is detected. Although exhausted from the recent labors the medical teams summon up reserves to face the future. How many this time? Will we lose more irreplaceable troops? A silent prayer spreads among them that the carnage is near an end and above all, that the paymaster battalion is not aboard.
www.noabominoidshere.blogspots.com

[Movenonup]

"It is putting on an act even gnarlier than the Kit Kat Klub show in Cabaret."

G20 opening:

"Welcome to Cabareeeeeet."

The truth of it sends chills up my spine. Great post.

[LaughingAsRomeWasBurningDown]

thanks for the no abominoids link, pretty interesting blog, btw, your url is slightly off:

http://www.noabominoidshere.blogspot.com/

[larkaflint]

60 minutes interview with obama in watch full version in one part here: http://tubedirects.net/index.php?q=60-minutes-interview-with-obama
download faster than youtube!
Recommended!

[MaryW]

The extravaganza of economic hypergrowth based on cheap resources is over

Well put – I’ve never understood all the drooling business commentary of how endless exponential growth is going to make everyone happy and wealthier, when clearly all it seems to have fostered is entrenched dishonesty in the financial sector and the marginalization of workers in the US and abroad.

People will realise very quickly the value of thrift and quality and will hopefully have enough gumption to demand it. The massive waste of food will be at an end as people don’t cook more than they need and save any leftovers and maybe only order a burger or fries, not both which will go a long way to reducing waistlines and diabetes which has shown tearaway growth in all developed countries. Seeing 12 year olds with type 2 diabetes is obscene and quite often these kids weigh more than most regular sized adults.

Perhaps the crisis that is now on the doorstep may allow decent, basic medical care for all US citizens to be instituted much along the lines experienced in Europe and Britain and her former colonies. These systems are not perfect but it has got to be better than people fearing that should they be unwell or be involved in an accident they will end up with debt that will take years off their lives through sheer worry.

The entrenched views of socialized medical care will be very hard to shift but when people no longer have jobs and the attached medical benefits this may allow a different kind of thinking to permeate Americans’ consciousness. Just where the funds will come from will be anyone’s guess although a loading on the fat and sugar laden foods which would be ring fenced in governmental budgets would be a good start. Doctors would also have to moderate their earning expectations and be willing to accept a salary for working in a hospital with maybe some private work on the side as happens in many countries.

The use of waterways again will allow countries everywhere to spin out their fossil fuel resources more prudently and aid previously depressed areas. Most countries will become self contained economies apart from sourcing goods that cannot be obtained any other way, say like particular spices, rubber or metals. This changed state will allow workers to earn a living wage and improve health given that manual labour will become increasingly a part of the pastoral, horticultural and industrial scene.

[Cymon Dendu]

My emotion says “No Detroit bailout!” too, but my practical side agrees with JHK: We need some domestic automobile-making capacity, if only for military vehicles. So maybe we bail out one, or two, and let the other(s) fail. We could make the CEOs of Chrysler, Ford and GM play “Musical Chairs”!

[Chipper_Drysdale_III]

Hey, how about that $2/gallon gas?

My hours of pointless driving have returneth!

[Uncle Remus]

"We give the Natural world a chance to recover from its abuse by human constructs. Humans get the chance to be more connected to the Natural world"

You betcha Frank. Kicking, screaming, stimulused and subsidized to the bitter end.

"We're going [...] to live very differently than we did the past sixty years. The public just doesn't get this."

So simple, even a caveman can do it. Yet, here we are.

[GBenzon]

Jim, I'm surprised you haven't mentioned the big layoffs in your favorite sport, NASCAR racing!

http://nascar.fanhouse.com/2008/10/30/report-predicts-huge-job-losses-in-nascar/

[JJackson]

"synecdoche"?

Word!!

[dale]

Doom,
I “get” Orlov just fine. In fact, what I like about him most is his discussion of the psychological aspects of collapse, which I think will ring true regardless of how bad the collapse gets, the way we are able to adjust and connect with others will largely determine our success. My brother was interested in a Ukrainian woman for awhile and his stories of how closely bonded she was with her friends reinforced Orlov's points about those Russian coping strategies. Orlov's sense of humor on a topic like this is also refreshing....and very Russian. As for what I am doing, I mentioned before that I do believe in a little “insurance” at this stage of “collapse” (or probability thereof).... in terms of stockpiling a few months supply of food (just bought a freezer yesterday) and will order a few cases of vodka this week (trade goods). To paraphrase Orlov, by the time THIS “preposterous” idea starts to become “conventional wisdom” it will definitely be late in the game and considerably more costly. My cost of this strategy will probably total less than $2,500 when it is complete, but could be worth several times that in a serious situation. If it doesn't happen, I'll just eat my way to break even.

At this point, I am still hopeful the “collapse” will be somewhere between our recent recessions and the great depression. You don't buy insurance actually expecting your house to catch fire now do you? I never want to be “bought in” completely to a theory of collapse until it is clearly inevitable, which still seems a ways off IMO.

I suspect that Boise's relative isolation, homogeneity, (and don't forget that Mule deer herd that winters in my back yard) may turn out to my favor. If “collapse” really does occur I think the initial impact would be most strongly felt in large cities or areas of high cultural and ethnic diversity. Speaking of “doing something about it” Doom.....you are still betting on (let's call it semi-collapse) yourself of you wouldn't still be in Hawaii would you? It would take a rare level of self assurance in your views to walk away from a tenured Professor position in these times I suspect. Good luck, let's hope we are both here to cheer on Hawaii vs. Boise State five years from now.....;)

[spuntz]

Tell the Pima Indians that they should be denied health care because they're fat or to the other millions genetically unsuited for this cultural lifestyle.

Face it, you don't do a damn thing to stay thin...it's physically easy to exercise with no discrimination and you eat what you want until you have enough.

It doesn't work that way for Pima Indians and others of the same genotype. Self starvation works as well as holding your breath until you pass out--not very well.

And if we live a normal cultural lifestyle and eat until we have enough, we get and stay fat.

Lord, I hate the naturally thin and bigoted. You're like white men in this culture farting their worthless opinions about racial discrimination.

They don't get it because they've never experienced it. They don't really have a clue. Duh.

[spuntz]

P.S. Fat is the best survival jacket ever if food really does become scarce. Fat folks with Pima genotype will be burying the culturally fashionable naturally thin.

In days of yore when famines existed and a high level of activity was necessary to survive, we weren't the fat ones, nope, we were called the surviving ones.

[JLee]

Well all I know about getting fat and staying thin is that I in all my bicycle travels I never met a fat long distance cyclist to accompany me.

[Dr.Doom]

chipper, you're a real pain in the ass on this blog, but you knew that.

think about how long it's taken for you (editorlal you, not just chipper) to become clusterfuck aware, and be honest with the extent of your conversion. now, what makes you think that your teachings will be even moron effective on those who are not of like mind and have not sought out this blog on their own? might as well talk to the trees.

i was listening to the Jay Hanson interview and in the follow-up remarks he was quoted, I believe, in saying there was a high probability of nuclear war within the next 10 to 14 years. i don't see why it should take that long to come about. once foreign creditors no longer accept our credit, there will be a serious energy crisis in the US unless it can otherwise secure its oil supply--invoke Carter Doctrine--presto, ww3.

[Chipper_Drysdale_III]

What if Peak Oil is BS?

Come on, be honest. A drop back to $1.95 makes you really wonder if it's all bullshit.

But then a guy who picked "dr Doom" out of all possible aliases prolly wants to believe in armageddon. Nay, he needs to believe.

[greenbeans]

"But the public itself is responsible for its own suicidal diet of double cheez burritos and Dr. Pepper."

Well said. It starts with raising the little rugrats. Nobody wants to be a mean parent and force the kids to eat vegetables or something they don't think they'll like - in other words: a food that isn't advertised between TV shows.

[Dr.Doom]

Ya Dale, after I posted that comment I re-read your remarks on Orlov and realized too late that you did get it. In fact, we may have to nominate you for some kind of CFN learning achievement award. You're not the same dale that was posting here back in the Gary49er days, are you?

Once TSHTF, your wild mule deer herd will thin. Best to get one bagged while they're relatively easy. Send me an email and I'll forward my home address for some extra frozen venison steaks, should you have any to spare.

Yeah, living on the island of Oahu should prove interesting in future, not to mention the bomb target possibilities. Living on the outer islands might work, though. They are much more rural.

I hope to be discussing future possibilities with Jay Hanson here soon.

[Chipper_Drysdale_III]

Here's my theory on PO.

People who aren't doing well under the current system crave its collapse because that would mean everyone starts over again on a level playing field.

In other words, if they can't have nice toys then no one should.

[dale]

“i was listening to the Jay Hanson interview and in the follow-up remarks he was quoted, I believe, in saying there was a high probability of nuclear war within the next 10 to 14 years.”
---Jay Hanson as quoted by Doom.
That's interesting....what if I say there is a “high probability” of the Earth being struck by an asteroid? Yeah....and why NOT next month or next year Doom?.... I'm with you there (kinda). Could it be because whatever possible benefit the jackass who makes such a prediction might possibly realize would definitely be had within 10-14 years? That he can go on saying that shit for a long time and get people like you to quote him? Predictions of that sort are completely useless globules of self aggrandizing bullshit spewed by no-nothing woolly headed wannabe “experts”......and you can quote me on that.
Here is another bit of psychobabble genius from Mr. Hanson:
“In short, people cannot think a thought unless the brain has been previously "wired" to think it. This is why civilization after civilization runs out of energy and collapses http://dieoff.com/page134.htm . This is also why we are presently running out of energy and hell-bent for collapse.”
I rest my case. Seriously.....posting crap from idiots like this guy almost makes me want to agree with Republicans on the uselessness of “academic elites” or so shit. (this post is not intended as a defence of Chipper 3.0)