Presto Change-o

      As the election campaign ground on like a 3000-mile race between a greyhound and an armadillo, the media kept harping on Barack Obama's vague promises of "change." We now know what the main promise was: regime change, right here in the USA, not in some place where the natives wear strange headgear. Mr. Obama's victory was a moment of epochal exhilaration, not least because he appears to be a decent and intelligent person self-made from a humble background -- someone who has personally bought tube socks in the K-mart, worried about money, and made many trips in a subway car.
     The current occupant of the White House, however, has sedulously prepared for his successor the biggest shit sandwich the world has ever seen, and there is naturally some concern that Mr. Obama might choke on it. The dilemma is essentially this: the consumer economy we all knew and loved has died. There will be pressure from nearly every quarter to keep it hooked up to the costly life support machines even though it is dead. A different economy is waiting to be born, but it is nothing like the one that has died. The economy-to-come is one of rigor and austerity. It is not the kind of thing that a nation of overfed clowns is used to. Do we even have a prayer of getting to it, or are we going to squander our dwindling resources on life support for something that is already dead?
     A case in point: the car industry. The Big Three, all functionally bankrupt, are now lined up for bail-outs from the treasury's bottomless checking account. Personally, I believe the age of Happy Motoring is over. Many Americans have already bought their last car -- they just don't know it yet. The current low-ish price of oil is a total fake-out, having to do much more with asset-dumping in the paper markets than the true resource supply-demand equation. Most of the world (the media for sure) has ignored preliminary leaks from the International Energy Agency's (IEA) forthcoming report which forecasts global oil depletion to be 9.1 percent in 2009. This is a staggering figure, very likely to offset whatever slack we see in global demand from the worldwide economic crisis. In fact, the global oil markets are poised for the most severe dislocations ever seen, meaning it's a toss-up what happens first in the USA: a major leg back up in oil prices, or shortages, hoarding, and rationing.
     For my money (literally) there are only two main reasons that any portion of the car industry should be rescued at the present time: one, because we need somebody to manufacture engines for military vehicles, and two, because we need somebody to manufacture rolling stock for the revival in passenger railroad service that will have to be a centerpiece of the future economy if we want to remain a civilized nation.
     Even the progressive factions of the public may be in for much more "change" than they bargained for. The global economy as we knew it is finished (despite British PM Gordon Brown's fatuous suggestion that we are ready to formalize it). The world is about to lose its "flatness" (sorry Tom Friedman) and get much rounder. For one thing, the racket of American "consumers" gobbling up the output of Asian factories in exchange for paper promises is over. For the moment, the Chinese are struggling with epic factory closures with the sudden prospect of a restive lumpenproletariet. The situation there is bound to get worse. Before long, these broke-and-hungry masses may actually challenge the present government. In the meantime, there's no telling what the (unelected) Chinese government might do either to keep itself in power, or genuinely defend its country's perceived economic interests. One thing is self-evident: we are not returning to the old racket of toys-for-treasury-bills. One thing China might do in economic self-defense is shed whatever US dollar-denominated paper is moldering in their vaults before it becomes valueless altogether.
      As global trade relations wither, and they will, the US will be thrust back on its own devices, at the same time that oil resources grow punishingly scarce. Mr. Obama will have to contend with the necessary radical reform of all the activities necessary for daily life here. Near the top of the list -- invisible to most of the public so far -- will be the question of how we produce the food we need. Industrial farming is done, just as suburbia is toast. Mr. Obama will have to apply plenty of ass-time to the first stages of negotiating this bottleneck. I don't even know what he can do policy-wise, though he can certainly make it plain to the public that we have to grow more of our food close to home and do it with fewer engines and fewer oil-based soil supplements. It is a problem of such surpassing difficulty that it was not even close to being in the election arena. The transition will probably occur by means of "emergence." Self-evident necessity will prompt different behavior and different ways of doing things. Sooner or later, the new arrangements will self-organize -- if we don't squander resources defending an unsustainable status quo. One thing we can certainly predict is that growing our food will require more human labor and attention -- meaning there will be plenty of work for people currently losing their jobs at The Footlocker and Arby's, but it's far from certain whether they will be happy in their new vocations.
       We're going to have to resume making things in the USA again, too, probably at a more modest scale, and probably fewer things than we are used to. We have no idea yet how this is going to happen. Like agriculture, manufacturing culture may have to return, if at all, emergently, as individuals and communities see opportunity in advantages like proximity to water-power and water transport. My guess is that corporate enterprise as we have known it -- at the continental and global scale -- is done for. I would not bet on any of the Fortune 500 carrying on the manufacturing work of the future using the plants-and-equipment that are familiar to them. The manufacturing of the future may be more like cottage industry than Proctor and Gamble. Yet, obviously, there will be tremendous efforts to prop up failing corporate enterprise and prevent natural bankruptcies from occurring.
       Similarly, the retail part of the economy. Many observers think that Wal-Mart and its clones are immune to the larger forces swirling around us. Just because many cash-strapped people are hunting for bargains at WalMart these days does not insure the survival of the Big Box model very far into the future. In fact, in every trend we can see -- from the oil markets to events in China to the impoverishment of the US working class to the coming crisis in truck transport -- you can easily discern fatal weaknesses in this model. Local retail (and its support structures) is coming back. We just don't know how, yet, and we don't know how much capital and effort will be squandered trying to rescue WalMart, when the time comes. But the imperative re-scaling of commerce in America also represents huge opportunities for young people to get into their own businesses.
      Mr. Obama will preside over the potential restructuring of all our systems, some of them in ways he and his supporters have not imagined. We haven't begun to see where fate will take higher education, but my guess is that it will no longer be a "consumer" activity, and that the hypertrophied land-grant diploma mills will have to to shrink or die as state financial support withers away, and all sorts of unnecessary professions from "public relations" to "marketing" cease to require certified graduates. The luxurious central high schools, utterly addicted to their yellow school bus fleets, will be left as a problem for the states and municipalities. I don't believe they can be rescued, and they are already failing in many other ways, not least, educating and properly socializing young humans.
      In the months just ahead, Mr. Obama will certainly be swamped with straight-ahead cash problems in every area of American life, from the foundering pension funds to the bankrupt state treasuries to the beggaring corporations to the starkly dispossessed and hungry masses of the jobless and re-poed. I wasn't kidding when I came up with the label, "the long emergency," to describe the storm that we are heading into, along with Mr. Obama. Of course, the current president -- and Mr. Obama has been shrewd to point out there is only one president in office at a time --has more than two months to wreak additional havoc in the financial system. Right now, he's asking Mr. O, "...do you want fries with that sandwich I made for you?"
____________________________________
My new novel of the post-oil future, World Made By Hand, is available at all booksellers.

Comments

[LaughingAsRomeWasBurningDown]

It's a giant shit sandwich indeed, and we're all gonna have to take a bite!

Excellent column this week.

[OilMonkey]

This billion-dollars-plus season of American Idol is finally over and a minority of fans favored a post-partisan celebrity to lead our post-modern country into a post-reality future.

The marginal winner is a new black face on an old white lie.

Lisa Jervis has exposed part of this lie in, If Women Ruled The World, Nothing Would Be Different (tinyurl.com/655cad). I'm reminded of words attributed to Timothy Leary, "women who seek to be equal with men lack ambition".

I have no doubt the same dynamics hold true for Obama and His maniacs.

As for the rest of the lie, Carlos Fierro does justice to truth in, An Anarchist View Of Elections (tinyurl.com/5cks5d):

"...[I]n a time of unprecedented environmental destruction, it is utter insanity that our two major presidential candidates profess that they have the plan to not only get the economy back on track, but to get the economy growing again. It is not fun to say, but it needs saying. The economy does not need to grow, rather it needs to begin to shrink, and shrink drastically. And if it is going to shrink drastically, as nature necessitates, then we must consider ways to make society equitable, not wealthier. In this light, giving banks a $1trillion bailout so that they can begin loaning money to kick start the growth of the economy is not only wrong headed, but suicidal."
(Keep in mind that "environmental destruction" does not merely refer to global warming and climate change but also the unsustainable exploitation of non-renewable resources, the over-exploitation of renewable resources, the rapid loss of biodiversity, factory farming, pollution of all kinds, consumerism, overpopulation, unsustainable hyper-mobility, suburban sprawl, rapid loss of forests, etcetera. The list is long and comprehensive with the bottom line being that we are hopelessly overextended, living far beyond our ecologicial means. The corollary of which is -- by definition -- that we are living far beyond our economic means. Contraction is inevitable and imminent.)

An Anarchist View also eloquently covers the evil-of-two-lessers philosophy and the blue-state brand of liberal arrogance which took center stage on this season of American Idol.

Fierro closes by invoking a mythical vision of grassroots hope and change the likes of which we will never see.

Mickey Z says it best in, Will Obama Feel the Pressure? (tinyurl.com/643ntz):

"The only pressure that will be consistently exerted by those on the Left will be the pressure of their soft butts on their couch cushions as they sit back to smugly watch Jon Stewart, Keith Olbermann, Stephen Colbert, and Bill Maher.

"My advice: Take up yoga, lefties, because you’re gonna need an awful lot of flexibility to perform the contortions necessary to explain and justify President Obama’s actions over the next four years."

I would add, watch PBS and listen to NPR, to that list.

However, the left-in-name-only will need no contortions to justify their Savior. They are true believers so reality never gets in the way.

They will support Obama's futile, ill-advised attempt to sustain an unsustainable-by-definition way of life because, ultimately, that is the underlying reason they cast His vote.

Odds are it's going to get ugly -- deliciously so (it's already begun, enjoy the fun!: StopMeBeforeIVoteAgain.org) -- and it will make the best reality teevee money can buy.

[tjmoerman]

One idea that's been difficult to put across in the past few years is that oil prices are increasing. Every time the price drops from eighty to fifty, or from ninety to seventy, or from $150 to $60, there's a chorus of people all saying, "See, they're on their way back down."

Now that we have about five years of data behind us, we can discuss it in different terms. Prior to 2000, the price of oil fluctuated between about $12 and $30 a barrel. This year it's moved between $60 and $150. In other words, the price band (both the highs and the lows) has quintupled this decade.

Viewed that way, any lingering confusion about whether oil prices are marching upward or just in a bubble should be dispelled.

[Frank Gifford]

My hope is that President-elect Obama really does understand the dilemma he faces. After all, to discuss this straight up like Mr. Kunstler does will not win an election, nor will it get a bill through Congress. I urge everyone to maintain a positive outlook, and to offer comfort to those who are afraid (Conservatives). Their fear is mostly a matter of brain chemistry: a little reassurance can go a long way towards alleviating irrational fears. Life with less stuff and more physical work can actually be more satisfying in many ways. We demonstrate this at our project, http://EntropyPawsed.org
Remember, we are all in this together:)

[Sparkey762]

The "long emergency" has manifested in my world already. As a civil engineer, I work with a mid-sized city in the water/wastewater utility. We are currently examining our rate structure for both services and after very little analysis it became apparent to me that we cannot charge what we need to charge to keep the system running. We need a 300% (+-) increase in the sewer rate and about a 250% increase in the water rate to fix the "deferred maintenance". This is politically unacceptable, even if the users could pay. We recently (last week) rejected new taxes for both the fire department and the school district. So while I would welcome an injection of resources into "infrastructure", I don't see where it will come. The well, she is dry. At least in my corner of the universe.

While this may seem trivial to the impact of 2 wars, failing central banks and 9-figure bailouts, consider what those have meant to you personally in the last 8 years. Now think about what you would do if your toilet didn't flush. Mr. Obama is facing a shit sandwich literally, and he may not have drinking water to wash it down with.

[oneEyeOpen]

Jimmy sez

" Mr. Obama will preside over the potential restructuring of all our systems..."

I don't think so Jim. Mr. Obama will serve for 4 years at most. He will not be around long enough to "restructure" all of our systems in a mere 4 years. His very own party is going to end up being his biggest obstacle.

Had John McCain won, he too would only have served 4 years at best. Oddly enough, his biggest obstacle would have also been the Democrat party.

[oneEyeOpen]

Pol Who Peed on Crowd Swears Off Booze

Yikes! This from a guy who owes his constituents.

Story here:

http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Pol_Who_Peed_on_Crowd_.html

[carfree]

I often wonder, when I read your blog, just how pervasive this other, NASCAR inebriated culture is, and how entrenched it would be to change. Is the happy motoring, McDonald's chomping, vision of America simply a media image that the American public would drop like a hot potato once it became clear that it did not fulfill anyone's needs and was not sustainable?

I'm 42 years old. I don't know how typical or atypical I am of my age male, but I have little affection for the world consumer society as it is. Perhaps I have been a little more thoughtful than some. I ditched the television as soon as I left home in 1984. What a load of drivel. We sold our car a little over four years ago. Our children bike to elementary school. We have chickens and honeybees, (I do have to thank the stars that we live in an enlightened neighborhood that allows "normal livestock" in the covenants from 1966). I sell honey on the side at the farmer's market. We have a humanure composting toilet system a la Joseph Jenkins. (His book is available free online). We have a small garden.

Now granted, the internet allows people to self-select into their own social groups, but I don't feel that we're really that bizarre or out there in terms of today's culture. The whole chicken, carfree, shit composting thing we're doing is something that seems to be going on with fairly normal people. It's not like we're a bunch of hippies out on the Hog Farm.

I set off on this whole rant because you asked whether the people who are working at Foot Locker would be happy with the switch to organic agriculture. My feeling is that we will all be much happier, that there will be a brief shit storm, but then we'll all breathe a collective sigh of relief. (OK, I'll admit that it might be a case of "those of us who are left will breathe a collective sigh of relief".)

I mean, who the hell wants to work at Foot Locker? I'd much rather be out planting spinach or tending to my honeybees.

At one stroke, you paint a picture of a society that is both more civilized an human-scaled, and then speak of it as "The Long Emergency."

I think all we need to do is appeal to people's intelligence and creativity, and they will realize that what we've been living in has been the Long Emergency.

That's what always bugged me about Marx. He goes to great lengths to describe the soul-terrorism of the industrial revolution, but then his solution is to turn that nightmare machine over to the workers.

It's getting near time to shut off the damn machine.

[robert magill]

For the definitive study of the world wide shit sandwich mess check out "The Big Necessity – The Unmentionable World of Human Waste, and Why it Matters" by Rose George. A page or two is available through Johann Harri's Blog today.
http://www.johannhari.com/index.php

[oneEyeOpen]

"For the definitive study of the world wide shit sandwich mess check out "The Big Necessity – The Unmentionable World of Human Waste, and Why it Matters"

Naw. Thats OK Bob. I'll pass.

[Consultant]

And don't forget the attacks that will come from the depleted ranks of the discredited Republican Party.

Look for the corporate media media to repeat whatever themes the Repubs put out.

Examples? If the Obama Administration doesn't cure cancer, it's a failure. No peace in the Middle East-failure! Etc., etc.

All of this while Obama is trying to undo the monumental failures of the the Bush Administration.

I'd like to see Obama indict Bush, Cheney and tens of thousands of people who created and benefited from this epic housing Ponzi scheme.

[Nicholas Paredes]

Infrastructure is going to be the new economy. The strip malls are toast, most stores and franchises will be toast. Chatting with a friend this morning, we talked about the small areas in the city and suburbs that met the needs of a lot of people, although they disappeared in the face of choice. Remember as you connect the next administration to consumer choice that there really isn't a connection.

We'll spend the next decades figuring out all of the ways that W drove us into the gutter. My only concern is that he expressed the desire to do so. Starve the beast! Yay! O will have a tough row, but so would anybody. What he can do is provide competent people to help solve these problems, that alone is enough given what has been at the helm.

It is a peaceful regime change. Tis what we were built for.

[Nicholas Paredes]

C,

There are going to be way too many frightened Republicans in the first term to hold ranks. Look at what happened with several tight races and their nominees coming around to compliment Obama. Now that the map has changed significantly, thank you Mr. Dean, there are an awful lot of unsafe districts in the red areas of the country.

My hope is that Palin or Huckabee lead that Grand ole Party to the future! It is going to be fun to watch.

[Lost Horizon]

Jim, I believe that is a Giant Bushitty Sandwich.

The Worst President Ever is not done, and in the bell round, he gets to produce the Pardon Palooza.

[petetoth]

carfree, you are certainly NOT typical! Thanks for the HUMANURE free e-book tip. For those wishing to download it:

hhttp://www.weblife.org/humanure/pdf/humanure_handbook_third_edition.pdf

Jim, I hope Mr. O. doesn't disappoint. But I am afraid he will.

"All is good"

[DanaJ]

I was reading a commentary on another blog and it pointed out where each campaign ended up:
McCain's ended at the Biltmore Resort in Phoenix where it probably cost well over $1000 per nite to stay. If the attendees didn't arrive in a limo, the valets were parking Hummers, Navigators, Escalades, perhaps the few M's & X5's. As the camera panned over the crowd you saw almost all rich,white Southerners. As McCain gave his concession speech the expression on those attending was not sadness, it was open ANGER. They were pissed a losing, something the 'other one' was supposed to be doing.

Compare where Obama ended his run, in a public park, anybody could come and they didn't have to pay anything, they took public transportation. There were white, black, Asian, Hispanic, and all others visible in the crowd. There were tears of joy, people were smiling and cheering.

Which party were you at? Which one would you rather have been at?
This will tell us where we are going starting NOW!

[Consultant]

"The Worst President Ever is not done, and in the bell round, he gets to produce the Pardon Palooza."

For a (criminal) President who has no shame, I'm afraid you're right.

How many pardons are we talking about? 1 thousand? 10 thousand? A terabyte worth?

Can Bush pardon himself?

I hope Obama appoints a tough, veteran prosecutor as Attorney General.

[bud4wiser]

No one can deny the success of the Bush/Cheney administrations. These two men are responsible for the most significant and far-reaching changes to the United States since the Civil War. It remains to be seen whether their success will set in motion forces that could ultimately lead to world conflict. No doubt, like Osama Bin Laden, they had no idea how their lawlessness would spawn other dire international repercussions.

Now, a new administration is faced with the challenge of not only rectifying the fruits of a completely lawless financial sector at this time, but in doing so, doing so in a manner that does not sink to the same level of unethical, lawless behavior practiced by Bush/Cheney.

Its curious that so much ink continues to flow regarding how to address these “problems” – notice that the mainstream media fails to introduce the term “crimes,” in their synopsis of these events; while seemingly unable to barely mention the “true cause” of the economic mess.

Even as the Treasury prints an ever-growing mountain of “funny-money-debts” – the gilded rat-CEOs continue to do business as usual. Even the greediest, conceited child knows not to steal if there’s a good chance he’ll have his bottom smacked, his toys taken away and be sent to his “room” for a very long time. So far, there’s no evidence of any “corrective actions” that I’m aware of, certainly no punitive acts of any kind.

I’ll feel better about the chances for real “change” during the next administration when I hear a little more talk about the real “causes” of our current situation and creates punishments that instill fear among those defrauding and abusing the system.

And then again more questions need answers – here’s the old post of the same rant.

What are the ramifications of the legacy of the current presidential administration?
When a previous president breaks or ignores laws based on the premise of continuous period of “war” against a political philosophy, “terrorism” – what is the status quo of these extraordinary executive actions and policies with respect to the congress and administration? Will the nation remain at “war” for future legislatures and presidents?
Since the 110th Congress has not effectively legislated nor curtailed unlawful activities performed by numerous members of the Executive Branch of the federal government including but not limited to, failing to respond to subpoenas, failing to carry out oath of office, (Justice Department and other Cabinet Officers) and in general other appointees acting without regard for the mission of the departments they manage, (Justice, SEC, Federal Reserve, Treasury) – does this acceptance of these acts by the 110th Congress legitimize these behaviors for the next Congress?
How will future Presidents, their appointees and future legislatures determine what law is? What are the “checks” or political forces of “balance” that can restore respect for the law and enforce the oath of office by members of these branches of government?
Can any recourse be found through the Federal Judiciary? Does the constitution provide legal precedent for enforcing the rules of law among entire legislative bodies and executive officers of government?
Currently both the legislative and executive branches are malfeasant. If the current Congress refuses to act on Executive transgressions, will the current conduct of the Executive branch become law? Will the current affairs be the precedent that discharges Congress of the rights and responsibilities to “check” the Executive Branch of government in the future?

[oneEyeOpen]

DanaJ sez:

"Which party were you at? Which one would you rather have been at?
This will tell us where we are going starting NOW!"

At which party were you? might have been a better way of putting it but that aside you are one funny little girl. You think this is where you are going starting NOW? Here is where you are GOING now:

"Barack Obama owes Wall Street bankers a debt of gratitude for generous campaign donations as he ponders how to cope with a financial crisis that poses challenges over government aid and regulation for the banking industry.
Staff at banks, Silicon Valley technology companies and universities topped the list of contributors to Obama's record treasure chest of $640m (£406m).
Goldman Sachs was linked to more donations than any other company as its employees and their families provided $847,207 to the successful Democratic candidate's fundraising machine.
People associated with JP Morgan provided $581,460 and donors linked to Citigroup gave $581,216 according to figures culled from public disclosures."
story here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/nov/08/barackobama-wallstreet-bankers-campaign-donations-goldmansachs
But your ignorance is further cemented by the stupidity of the following statements:

"McCain's ended at the Biltmore Resort in Phoenix where it probably cost well over $1000 per nite to stay."
This figure may or may not be correct but lets assume it is. Who is paying? Those that attend. It doesn't cost any other person or group anything.. it costs the person attending.

Followed by your brilliant claim:

"Compare where Obama ended his run, in a public park, anybody could come and they didn't have to pay anything..."
This being particularly funny and naive in the "here come the freebies" mind set the Dimotwatts are imprinted with at birth. The city of Chicago charged the Obama campaign over 2 million dollars to use Grant park for his bash. That means that over 2 million dollars in Obama donations went towards one party. That is one hell of a party, I'd say. Hell maybe the Dimotwatts will be come to be known as "The Party, Party."

[Movenonup]

Dana,

Thanks for the feedback on the other thread regarding confiscating pension funds. I will try to keep an open mind.

[Nicholas Paredes]

Conjecture. Corporate donations are generally about equal with a slight bias. Is this a guarantee that Obama will do X? Most of his money came from smaller donations while McCain's came from large donors. Does that mean that Obama will then direct policy in the small donor's interest?

I'm sue the event at the Biltmore cost as much as the money Obama spent on reimbursing the city of Chicago.

[oneEyeOpen]

"I'm sue the event at the Biltmore cost as much as the money Obama spent on reimbursing the city of Chicago."

Of course you are. Seeing you provided some information that would indicate such assuredness.

[Nicholas Paredes]

I could care less. $2M. Your figures don't include what Goldman et al donated to McCain. Why? Would that defeat your argument. $2M for a presidential victory party is chump change. I'm sure W paid more than that for his Grecian inauguration setting. What's the point?

The would mean that Obama paid $16 dollars per person at the 125,000 estimate, while McLoser's supporters dined. I think it was money well spent! And, Grant Park was pretty extraordinary that night.

Yay! We won.

[Movenonup]

Carfree,

I liked your post. I heard recently that people who are optimistic do better, healthwise, after 45, so there are good old biological reasons for proceeding as you suggest. Lakoff talks about framing political debates and one of the things Dems do wrong is let the debate get framed for them and then they are in a reactive stance rather than an active one. That was one thing McCain did in the debates that made me feel like he was going to lose, he was always on the defensive, reacting. Not that the debates were much to talk about. My point, I loved your framing "We have already been living in the Long Emergency." That is positive, that is taking control of the framing rather than focusing on dearth, what will be taken away.

It will be hard to convince car addicted, McMansion living, shopaholics, that there is something better. The absence of all those short term consumption fixes (ipod, video games, Big Screen tube, clothes, etc.) will leave a void that will feel like an emergency.

Thanks for posting. Very thought provoking.

[oneEyeOpen]

"Your figures don't include what Goldman et al donated to McCain. Why? Would that defeat your argument. "

Not really. The argument is that Obama was funded by the little people that he will be beholden to none of the fat cats. Bwahahahahahah. What a laugh. Did you look at the crowd standing behind him at his first press conference? Read where his chief of staff made over 16 million dollars in two years as a trader?

I didn't have to include donations made to McCain from Wall Street because he didn't win so they won't be knocking on his White House door for favors. Get it, dim bulb? That is all.