Note: Hope = Truth

      People of good intentions and progressive predilection are scratching their heads wondering just how President Barack Obama managed to turn himself into George W. Bush Lite with sugar-on-top just twelve weeks after that fateful walk down the US Capitol's east stairway to the waiting helicopter. I'm hardly the first observer to note that Mr. Obama's actions in the face of an epochal finance fiasco and economic collapse are a mere extension of the pre-January-20 policies, carried out by much the same cast of characters.
      The assumption up until now was something about the reassuring value of continuity -- if we could just prop up an ailing set of banks for a little while, the US public could resume a revolving credit way-of-life within an economy dedicated to building more suburban houses and selling all the needed accessories from supersized "family" cars to cappuccino machines. This would keep everyone employed at the jobs they were qualified for -- finish carpenters, realtors, pool installers, mortgage brokers, advertising account executives, Williams-Sonoma product demonstrators, showroom sales agents, doctors of liposuction, and so on.
      This was a dumb strategy for such a supposedly bright group of people surrounding Mr. Obama. That old economy was dead on arrival January 20th. Even the kindest physicians don't put corpses on life support. This particular corpse has been placed in the world's cushiest intensive care unit, with transfusions running about a trillion dollars a month -- not to mention hefty bonuses for the attending nurses. Instead, a fast and furious wake might have been held, with the corpse of the old economy laid out on a granite countertop for all to toast and bid farewell. President Obama might have led this exercise with some aplomb -- even while directing his new justice department warriors to round up a host of suspects in the old economy's suspicious death.
     What it comes down to, apparently, is a leadership elite across all sectors -- politics, business, academia, media -- that is incapable of processing the truth, and then conveying it to the broad American public. Alas, this also appears to be a common theme in history, with a commonly tragic outcome, which is that elites get ruthlessly dumped and replaced by new elites, often composed of zealots, maniacs, nincompoops, and others generally ill-disposed to the able management of complex affairs. It's called the "circulation of elites," and in times of crisis it tends to take on a kind of downward spiraling flavor, with each gang of discredited leaders tossed out for a progressively worse one until a kind of exhaustion is reached -- whereupon the archetypal man-on-a-white-horse arrives on the scene.
      Mr. Obama looked to be the man-on-a-white-horse -- on the exhaustion of Reagan-Bush Jesus-Republicanism -- but he's coming off more like Philippe Égalité (Louis Philippe Joseph d'Orléans, duc d'Orléans) in 1793, with perhaps Newt Gingrich waiting offstage to become Robespierre in 2012 -- and some obscure US Army captain now toiling in Kirkuk slated to become the American Napoleon of 2015. As you've surely heard a thousand times now, history doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes. The enormities of Wall Street today are a little like those of the French Ancien Régime at Versailles. If America encounters the sort of disruptions of food and energy supplies that are brewing on the horizon, and unemployment keeps arcing up its current trajectory, civil uproars could easily follow. Readers think I joke about the Hamptons going up in flames. But the antics of the bankers, hedge funders, the CEOs, the Madoffs, and even the P. Diddy's of our time, are liable to attract murderous attention as the public mood moves from sour to wrathful.
     So, what people of good intention and progressive predilection want to know is how come Mr. Obama doesn't just lay out the truth, undertake the hard job of cutting the nation's losses, and get on with setting this society on a new course. The truth is that we're comprehensively bankrupt, and no amount of shuffling certificates around will avail to alter that. The bad debt has to be "worked out" -- i.e. written off, subjected to liquidation of remaining assets and collateral, reorganized under the bankruptcy statutes, and put behind us. We have to work very hard to reconfigure the physical arrangement of life in the USA, moving away from the losses of our suburbs, reactivating our towns, downscaling our biggest cities, re-scaling our farms and food production, switching out our Happy Motoring system for public transit and walkable neighborhoods, rebuilding local networks of commerce, and figuring out a way to make a few things of value again.
     What's happened instead is what I most feared: that our politicians would mount a massive campaign to sustain the unsustainable. That's what all the TARP and TARF and PPIT and bailouts are about. It will all amount to an exercise in futility and could easily end up wrecking the USA in every sense of the term. If Mr. Obama doesn't get with a better program, then we are going to face a Long Emergency as grueling as the French Revolution. One very plain and straightforward example at hand is the announcement last week of a plan to build a high speed rail network. To be blunt about it, this is perfectly fucking stupid. It will require a whole new track network, because high speed trains can't run on the old rights of way with their less forgiving curve ratios and grades. We would be so much better off simply fixing up and reactivating the normal-speed track system that is sitting out there rusting in the rain -- and save our more grandiose visions for a later time.
       I don't like to be misunderstood. With the airlines in a business death spiral, and mass motoring doomed, we need a national passenger rail system desperately. But we already have one that used to be the envy of the world before we abandoned it. And we don't have either the time or the resources to build a new parallel network.
       But grandiosity is just another way that we lie to ourselves about where we're at and what is really possible. Surely Mr. Obama knows that hope fades where the light of truth doesn't shine. He is a charming fellow. I don't especially want to see Newt Gingrich chop his head off.
____________________________________

My 2008 novel of the post-oil future, World Made By Hand, is available in paperback  at all booksellers.

Comments

[beerzie boy]

Way to go, Jim. Mr. O is doing the predictable thing, and sadly, this will not be ending well. Maybe if enough of us call him on it, things will improve, but I am not optimistic.

[Allen]

Great writing! Obama doesn't get it because the American people don't get it. He isn't doing much, but he is probably doing all he can. It seems clear that it will have to get much worse before people will accept the momentous changes that are necessary. Get ready for it.

[Hank]

Did Jim really expect Obama to cut the pork, trim the fat and tell everyone things are changing for the worse?

If McCain had won, it would be the same. Politicians can't tell you, the voter, to expect less.

In the next election, I will vote out whoever is in office, Democrat or Republican.

The Tea Party folks are "dead on". More spending will not help us out of the recession. Plan on big inflation, soon.

I expect all of us will be Millionares in a few years.

[montysano]

What we've seen so far is that Obama does not throw touchdown passes, but seems to consistently move the ball. He's been in office for what..... 90 days? I'm willing to give him some time.

He could not have done what JHK is asking of him: to stand up on 1/20/09 and begin to speak the unvarnished truth, esp. the truth as we in the Peak Oil/doom community see it. It would have been political suicide.

[stvo]

You can change the man but if you don't change the system that system will continue to produce the predictable results. Clinton was elected on a platform of change, hope and likeability and pulled all kinds of neo-con golfer-president nonsense. At least he presided over relatively good economic times. Obama thinks he probably just has to ride out some bad years and then things will swing back and history will love him. Most US presidents get the excitement is overseas (large conferences, military alliances, the Middle East, trade affairs, the military) and they figure the domestic scene is just going to take care of itself. Everything is about Cuba, Venezuela, G20, Russia, not soup kitchens and bus routes. ...Good luck with that one Buddy!

As for trains, couldn't agree more. I'd settle for a loose-limbed, innovative approach to faster trains as opposed to the mega project pentagonesque approach needed for high speed trains. Trackage will have to be built in places (at enormous cost) but new construction could be applied selectively and supplemented by innovation/adaptation in many places. 65mph is actually a pretty sweet speed if you are going downtown to downtown, the train leaves on time, is nice and clean and reliable and doesn't stop all the time because the right of way or the signal system is a shambles.

http://blog.wired.com/cars/2008/02/five-steps-to-h.html

[Jynx]

JHK -- "One very plain and straightforward example at hand is the announcement last week of a plan to build a high speed rail network. To be blunt about it, this is perfectly fucking stupid. It will require a whole new track network, because high speed trains can't run on the old rights of way with their less forgiving curve ratios and grades. We would be so much better off simply fixing up and reactivating the normal-speed track system that is sitting out there rusting in the rain -- and save our more grandiose visions for a later time."

What did you expect! Even if the leaders have the right intention they'll find a way to bollocks it up.

[rheba]

This was one of your best essays. We were wondering what you would have to say this week. I am hoping that the previous poster, montysano, is correct. It seems to me that anyone with half a brain would know that the current path is headed for disaster and we know that Obama has a a whole brain. I guess that is all we know at this point.
You know, even in my little town of mainly liberal folk, we have to be very careful about publicly predicting the "Long Emergency." Obama would have been attacked and LAUGHED AT - the worst fate at this point - just as we are. At least they can't find a way to spoof him on SNL yet. Still...did his cabinet really have to be so bad? I still cling to the hope that he is giving them enough rope to hang themselves. It's a strategy, right?

[edgar sterling]

"But grandiosity is just another way that we lie to ourselves about where we're at and what is really possible."

It ain't grandiose enough. What the fuck ever happened to flying cars huh?

[overeasy]

I think that what you see here is that there IS NO SOLUTION. The President can't stand up and say, "Hey folks, you're all fucked! Follow me into a future of personal paucity and austerity!" Christ, instead of the Hampton's being burned, the mobs would start on Pennsylvania Avenue.

Every single person that Obama deals with every day has a vested interest in maintaining the status quo -- so there is no hope that major change is going to come from those quarters. The elites that Jim speaks of will never vote against their own self interest. Just won't happen.

I think we're just going to have to watch this entire thing continue to unravel. Take notes, so that you can be clear when you tell your children or grand kids about it years from now...

Ron

[bud4wiser]

JK,

As a great Yogi once said "this is deje vu all over again." As near as I can tell, Obama must be fulfilling all the "promises" attached to campaign contributions.

Maybe he'll feel he's paid up - maybe just around the time of the mid-term elections.......

Obviously, the "high-speed-rail" thing must be some sort of joke.

But then again, you're hung up thinking this proposal is about transportation. Au Contraire, these go-fast train talks are about "jobs" - bribes, influence peddling and contract over runs. The train passengers can eat cake.

As it so happens I was reading about the railroad history of "my back yard." If you want to get an idea about how transportation was born - west of the Mississippi, do a quick scan of the history of the Missouri Pacific Railroad.

This article could serve as a template to remind us "modern folk" where and when the rails and roads were before cars and truck dominated our cultural landscape.

We don't need some asinine nationally "topdown" regulated system. We need two hundred new regional specialty RR systems that serve the people they connect.

http://skyways.lib.ks.us/history/mp/mphist.html

[anotherplayaguy]

With Obama, it's not merely Bush Lite -- something I've called him from day one -- but, regrettably on most fronts, Bush Redux. On some marginal issues, there is movement, but on the BIG THINGS, it's Bush all over again.

The way to win elections is to have both candidates in your pocket. It's been that way in America for at least the last thirty years.

[asoka]

Terrible metaphor this week. The USA body politic is a corpse?

JHK says: "We have to work very hard to reconfigure the physical arrangement of life in the USA, moving away from the losses of our suburbs, reactivating our towns, downscaling our biggest cities, re-scaling our farms and food production, switching out our Happy Motoring system for public transit and walkable neighborhoods, rebuilding local networks of commerce, and figuring out a way to make a few things of value again."

AND REARRANGING THE CORPSE IN THE COFFIN WILL BRING IT BACK TO LIFE?

Lose the corpse metaphor.

[vegasbob]

While Obama's failure or refusal to recognize reality is disappointing, it would have been far worse if McInsane had been elected. He would have dropped dead from the stress by now, and President Palin would be happily leading us into WWIII.

[James]

Actually, I wouldn't mind seeing Gingrich in 2012, if only to witness the final unraveling come under Republican rule (and because he's an insufferable, pseudo-intellectual windbag who will be a miserable failure and who just MIGHT -- finally, once-and-for-all -- expose "supply side economics" for the sham that it truly is). Having positioned the US economy and national government to go bust over the past 30 years so that they could finally implement their vision of social equality (roughly: as long as you're rich you're equal), its only fitting that the final collapse come under their watch.

I think Obama's playing the only rational strategy left to a liberal democrat, which is to implement the social programs that we've needed for decades but could not get passed, even though they're virtually assured to bankrupt the system now. Given that systemic bankruptcy was virtually assured either way, I'd chalk this up as the Dems last gasp at enacting meaningful social change before the rest of the world recognizes that we're just another third world dead beat who can't (and won't) pay their bills, and the inevitable fire sale begins.

Hey, we had a good run while it lasted, but just like all the other great nations of history who dreamed empirical dreams, they've proven to be our undoing.

[msjanket]

While supportive of Jim's weekly epistle, I believe a helluva lot of Americans realize the jig is up. You can't live here and not be aware that the big fortunes of Wall St. puffed up GNP and made things look better'n they really were. I'm facing working until 70 years of age in a health profession. I'm not bitter, either.
Retirement for many starts very early in the municipal and state trade system. Imagine collecting at age 40, getting another job for 20, another pension....helluva deal.
I know things will change drastically. But, my simple life has always been simple and it will regress to the way things were for me back in the Delta during my childhood. Like, not much fluff and frill, just work, group sports, and Sunday Baptist gatherings. I can take the humdrum, can the majority? As far as Obama is concerned, once he gets more and more established, you will likely see the iron fist cracking down on many things, thereby downgrading American lives to pay for this fictitious piece of crap bailout fiasco. He knows what's up, and will soon lay the cards on the table. And, he will greatly enrich himself selling books, gigs on Oprah, etc after he retires from politics. Money and politics, the American way. Bend over and grab your socks.

[zsazsa]

" And, he will greatly enrich himself selling books..."

Dear Leader will leave the stage at the end of 4 years as a great failure. Aside from asoka, who the hell will be willing to buy one of his books?

[montysano]

@msjanket: "I know things will change drastically. But, my simple life has always been simple and it will regress to the way things were for me back in the Delta during my childhood."

Yeah, my wife and I have patted ourselves on the back lately. We bought a small, easily affordable house, drive 15 year old Volvos, and have money in the bank.

You mention the Delta. My work often takes me through the Black Belt region of Alabama. I've imagined asking one of the black folks who live there: "How has the economic meltdown affected you?", with "What meltdown?" being the answer. They'll go out again this year and plant a big garden, raise chickens and a couple of hogs, and carry on as before.

[gaiasdaughter]

Obama either believes what he tells the American public or he is one hell of a liar. I tend to believe the first and take him at his word. Not that he's right, just that he's telling the truth as he sees it. Whether or not he will come to see things differently, whether or not he will have the political clout to take us in a different direction should he experience an ephiphany, remains to be seen. What I take from all of this is that waiting for the gov'ment to rescue us from ourselves is wasted time. Better to spend your time planting a garden and reading up on permaculture. Or you might invest in horses . . .

I will have to say, JHK, that your book, World Made by Hand, probably comes closer to predicting our future than anything else I've come across. Just wish you had portrayed women as being more relevant outside of bed and kitchen:)

[guitar54]

While it's always exciting, inspirational, & doom-affirming to read JHK's blog - in a scholarly yet disaffected way - I believe the reality of the US's situation is much more mundane.

So unemployment's around 8%...lotta slack out there. The airlines are down 25%. So what? Oil shortages aren't here yet! 2012? Maybe....
I just returned from Austin. The flights were packed. People seemed happy. Looked like the restaurant's were pretty full. Hell, the traffic there's abysmal. Everyone's on the road goin' somewhere! Walmart (which we mercifully don't have here in Brooklyn) was quite empty late Fri. & Sat. nights (I got a couple of cheap hats & t-shirts & a good SRV double CD). Maybe they'll do what Home Depot did here in NY & stop the odd 24 hour thing. But that won't END society as we know it!

I work in the film biz - it's hard right now to find people to work! And we just got a 1% raise with more coming! No, what I think will happen will be a somewhat slowish transition to a much more stratified society. If you didn't buy a house before say 2002, or are already rich, well, the musical chair game ended a while ago & if you're still standing, you likely ain't gonna get a seat! Least not a good one... Haves & have-nots. That defining part of the game is more or less over, and now it's gonna be a slow sinking to the bottom for millions.... but revolution? Too many millions of "haves" will keep that from happening.... but hey, if you're big & strong with repressed violent tendencies, or you know how to handle a projectile-releasing device, soon there'll be loads of positions in personal security. Or kidnapping, if you want to play that game like they do in Central & South America.....but people do still party in Rio, don't they?

[Moondog]

Jim sums up what is urgently needed, lucidly and succinctly: "We have to work very hard to reconfigure the physical arrangement of life in the USA, moving away from the losses of our suburbs, reactivating our towns, downscaling our biggest cities, re-scaling our farms and food production, switching out our Happy Motoring system for public transit and walkable neighborhoods, rebuilding local networks of commerce, and figuring out a way to make a few things of value again."

Doing any of these things would be cause for some hope. And is there even one item on this list that Obama "gets"? Apparently not. I suppose he is about as smart a president as we could expect to have at this point, but there is so much to be disappointed over.

Is the only remaining hope, then, that he understands TLE and has some devious plan?

Hope=Truth? Such a double plus good Orwellian equation. Never mind hope; just gimme some truth.

And I eagerly await Asoka's insights on this week's masterful essay.

[Moondog]

I missed Asoka's reaction to the "corpse" metaphor. Revisiting that paragraph, I think that the conceit works well. It is ridiculous to waste so much on trying to revive a system and a set of values that are dead, done, over.

We have yet to enter the bardo state, and the next incarnation remains unknown.

[Hokey Pokey]

The current "sucker rally" on Wall St is still creeping along.

It is the Last Rally. It is where the croupier rakes the last of America's wealth into the Black Hole in the middle of the gaming table.

This will begin after Labor day. Until then, things will appear semi-normal, don't wanna spook the 'Marks'.

This will be like Katrina. Looks normal the week before the hurricane, even a couple of days, then the sky falls.

It's like the Dumb-fuck Ass-Cown Jim Cramer flogging Bear Stearns on national TV right before it tanked.

He still has a job with the Ministry of Propaganda spewing the same shit as before.

The Sheeple eat it up.

The 'merickan public is now in the chute leading to the 'rendering plant'.

Wear a steel helmet if you like, the pnematic piston strike to your head will still be fatal, it will just make you feel less panicked as you are herded for the Final Run.

[LaughingAsRomeWasBurningDown]

Zombie economy indeedy. JHK, great column this week.

[messianicdruid]

" Even the kindest physicians don't put corpses on life support. "

If you wanted Ron Paul, you should have voted for him when you could have. This guy is no Columbo, either. No sense crying over spilled beans. Humpty Dumpty was no being. But the spill is been. Got sliver?

[Hank]

Now I see that Obama is going to cut $100 Million out of a $3.550 TRILLION budget.

That amounts to about .00003%.

WAKE UP PEOPLE!!!

THIS IS ALL SMOKE AND MIRRORS.

You know what the sad fact is? People are buying less, because they are cuttting back (loss of job, over spent, etc.) The lack of sales results in fewer jobs, resulting in more layoffs, only resulting in less sales.